state of play: 11/21/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Torz: Will Jaros Replace Sutryk? Szubartowicz: Parties Forming a New Majority Will Need to Decide Whether to Return to the Idea of a Single List in Spring 2024, Pacewicz: Polish Women Left to the Winds of Change?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- HOŁOWNIA: I ASSURE THE PRIME MINISTER THAT AFTER HIS STATUS IS CLARIFIED, WE WILL MEET. I WILL ASK HIM MANY QUESTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/21/ -- THE OPPOSITION IS WAITING FOR TUSK'S GOVERNMENT. RESOLUTIONS ON THE RULE OF LAW LATER - JUSTYNA DOBROSZ-ORACZ AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: "For now, it is unknown when the democratic side will ultimately decide on the votes. It is certain that the changes will not happen peacefully. Dubler Muszyński announced that he will not move out of the cabinet. - We're a bit stuck - admits one of the KO MPs. - On our side, there are various voices, I happen to be one of the hawks who repeat that there's no time to wait. For today, however, the prevailing view is to wait with the resolutions until Donald Tusk's government is formed, and a new minister takes over the Ministry of Justice. Budka explains to "Wyborcza": efficiency counts in politics: - It is worth adopting resolutions that will be primarily implemented very quickly. There's no need to rush. If there is a government and an executive body, it is much easier to implement parliamentary resolutions. I'm cooling down emotions. If someone has waited eight years, a week or two really changes nothing." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30424743,opozycja-czeka-na-rzad-tuska.html -- JAROS WANTS TO REPLACE SUTRYK - MARCIN TORZ IN SALON24: "- This is a significant commitment for the future – explains Jaros, who will most likely run in the presidential elections – not only under the PO banner but a broader coalition. - I am aware of the deep expectation in democratic circles, urban movements, and society, often expressed, that the candidate for the president of Wrocław will unite these circles, be able to talk and cooperate with them – Michał Jaros tells us." https://www.salon24.pl/newsroom/1340630,klopoty-jacka-sutryka-po-dystansuje-sie-od-prezydenta-wroclawia-a-to-nie-koniec -- THE PARTIES FORMING THE NEW MAJORITY, AFTER THE GOVERNMENT IS APPOINTED, WILL HAVE TO DECIDE WHETHER TO RETURN TO THE IDEA OF A SINGLE STRONG LIST IN SPRING 2024 - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: "The parties forming the new parliamentary majority, after the government is appointed, will have to decide whether to return to the idea of a single strong list in spring 2024. Primarily Civic Coalition and Third Way (PSL), which have shared local government experience, are likely already thinking about taking over power in all provincial assemblies, which would be not only a symbolic but also a practical confirmation of the change that recently took place in Poland. While Jarosław Kaczyński's weakening party will be busy looking for ways to consolidate internally and portray itself as a total opposition or rather its caricature, the new authorities will want to capitalize on the bonus from the autumn victory. This will also be the first test for the leaders who are currently reveling in the pleasure of victory, but they realize that only deepening cooperation can prevent the bonds within their unusually diverse political bloc from fraying." -- KNOWING TUSK, ONE CAN ASSUME THAT REGARDING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, HE HAS SEVERAL SCENARIOS UP HIS SLEEVE, INCLUDING THOSE THAT WOULD BE AT LEAST SURPRISING TO PUBLIC OPINION - FURTHER SZUBARTOWICZ: "The question remains what role Tusk has envisioned for Rafał Trzaskowski, thus far KO's natural candidate for president. Will he want to keep him in the local government sphere, which would be a kind of leash on local matters, or will he more broadly open the door for him to national politics? It is also unknown how the president of Warsaw himself will behave in this situation, whose people are currently being embraced by Tusk, and potential government duties will limit their space for individual initiatives, impose personal responsibility, and force complete loyalty to the prime minister. Knowing Tusk, one can assume that regarding the presidential elections, he has several scenarios up his sleeve, including those that would be at least surprising to public opinion. Supporting Hołownia in this matter is out of the question, after all." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-co-bedzie,nId,7160302 -- POLISH WOMEN LEFT TO THE WINDS OF CHANGE? THE ANTI-FEMINIST THIRD WAY AND A PAINFULLY MASCULINE TUSK GOVERNMENT - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: "It is apparent that in Donald Tusk's government, there will be only four women in ministerial positions out of 20 people, meaning 20%, the same as in Morawiecki's government. This would place Poland 95th out of 186 countries worldwide in the government-gender classification (ex aequo with Burkina Faso and Moldova) and seventh from the bottom in the EU. In line with gender stereotypes, "ministries of care" have been reserved for women in Tusk's government: for the sick, for children's education, for families and disadvantaged groups. And also – a bit from a different basket – care for the climate and environment. Men will take the key ministries of power (prime minister and deputy prime ministers), interior, defense, justice, as well as finance and all economic ministries. Three prime ministers, as well as ministers of foreign affairs and EU affairs, will represent Poland abroad in a male-dominated group." -- IT APPEARS THAT THE CAMPAIGN NARRATIVES ABOUT EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES AND FULFILLING "WOMEN'S DEMANDS," INCLUDING THE RIGHT TO ABORTION AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE EU (EXCEPT MALTA), HAVE YIELDED TO THE DEMANDS OF PARTY ALIGNMENTS - FURTHER PACEWICZ: "It appears that the campaign narratives about equal opportunities and fulfilling "women's demands," including the right to abortion available throughout the EU (except Malta), have yielded to the demands of party alignments. The distribution of ministries reflects the participation of the three groups in the electoral success of the entire coalition: 57% KO and 11 ministers, 27% TD and 5 ministers, and 16% The Left and 3 ministers. -- THE THIRD WAY, WHICH HAS BECOME AN ANTI-FEMINIST FORCE IN THE COALITION, PLAYS THE ROLE OF A BRAKE ON GENDER CHANGE - FURTHER PACEWICZ: "A paradox is at play here. The strong electoral performance of TD, which led to the victory of democracy, was to some extent the result of the conservative (in the Polish sense of the word) approach of PSL and Poland 2050, including their views on gender roles and their disregard for women's rights, presented as "moral and worldview issues." Voters who found The Left too "left-wing" and Tusk too "liberal" voted for the Third Way. However, this victory for democracy limits the egalitarian policies of the future government." https://oko.press/antykobieca-trzecia-droga-i-rzad-meski-do-bolu -- THREE HUNDRED AND THIRTY-THREE CALL UPON GOD TO THE SEJM - MAGDALENA ŚRODA IN GW: "Furthermore, revealing rather intimate and, in my opinion, somewhat embarrassing beliefs in the 21st century about the existence of empirically unverifiable beings and their irrational (omni)potencies offers no hope that Polish politics will strengthen our position in a secular and modern Europe." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30424746,trzysta-trzydziesci-troje-wzywa-boga-do-sejmu.html -- THE "CORDONE” COALITION WILL SURVIVE UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, AND THEN THERE WILL BE EARLY ELECTIONS, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BECOME CLEAR WHAT THE POSSIBILITIES ARE FOR PIS - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK WITH PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ ON GAZETA.PL: "Prof. Antoni Dudek believes that Kaczyński will not return to governing, unless the new coalition, called the "cordone" by the political scientist, falls apart within two years. - However, I think the "cordone" coalition will survive until the presidential elections, and then there will be early elections, after which it will become clear what the possibilities are for PiS. Certainly, until the presidential elections in 2025, no one will want to talk to PiS about a potential coalition, and only such would give Kaczyński's party a chance to return to power – says the political scientist." -- IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT KACZYŃSKI IS DEPARTING IN THE GLORY OF A MAN WHO DELIVERED VERY AMPLE SOCIAL POLICY - FURTHER DUDEK WITH ŚMIŁOWICZ: "- However, it should be remembered that Kaczyński is departing in the glory of a man who delivered very ample social policy. Today, this has been trivialized by some voters, but they may appreciate it if Donald Tusk's government begins a policy of "short blankets." Although Tusk is likely aware of this and will not limit social policy, he will rather borrow money and use European funds. However, if social benefits are reduced, some voters may want to return to PiS – adds Prof. Dudek." https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/115 -- IN REALITY, THIS POSITION IS PERFECTLY TAILORED TO HIS AMBITIONS AND PERSONALITY - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "Initially, there were voices of doubt as to whether Hołownia would be suitable as the Marshal of the Sejm, especially due to his lack of parliamentary experience. In reality, however, this position is perfectly tailored to his ambitions and personality. The Marshal must be well-organized, have good communication, and some intelligence. And since he is most visible during the session, if he enjoys performing, he has the space to shape the atmosphere of the debates and, in the era of social media, to become the hero of internet videos and media clips." -- ALL OF THIS INCREASES HIS CHANCES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT HE COULD OUTPACE RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN THE FIRST ROUND - FURTHER SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "Of course, this visibility allows the politician to pursue another goal – it is a prelude to the presidential campaign in 2025. According to the coalition agreement, Hołownia is to be Marshal for the next two years. By then, he will have many opportunities to register himself in voters' minds as a conciliatory person, efficiently managing, and not entirely partisan. All of this increases his chances in the presidential elections, although it still seems unlikely that he could outpace Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round. Regardless, Szymon Hołownia's election as Marshal of the Sejm is a great personal success – but also a great responsibility, as the success of the new ruling coalition will also significantly depend on him." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/11/20/sawczuk-wszyscy-patrza-na-holownie/ -- IT WAS PERFECTLY DONE TO AVOID THE PAST EFFECT OF LOSING PART OF THE OPPOSITION'S ELECTORATE - BŁAŻEJ LENKOWSKI IN LIBERTE: "In these elections, no radical party like Razem ran, which would claim they would not cooperate with other parties after the elections and would siphon votes from the main parties without entering the Sejm due to not crossing the 5 or 8 percent threshold. This experience shows how dangerous all radically left-wing movements are for the future of the democratic system in Poland, which by definition declare a holy war on "liberals" and principledly defend their radical postulates. Democratic politics is an art of compromise. And liberals and the left are condemned to each other in the near future if they want to hold power in the country. At the same time, Donald Tusk managed to brilliantly include various "free electrons" on his lists in appropriate places, who theoretically could have acted individually. This brought further important promiles of additional votes. Paradoxically and contrary to the expectations of most liberal political commentators, three opposition lists turned out to be a good solution. Third Way, i.e., a wisely implemented alliance of PSL and Poland 2050, was an offer for centrist voters who still did not want to vote for Tusk. The Left's list secured votes from radicals on that political side, who would also never have voted for "liberals" from KO. The D'Hondt method is not always what matters. People's views are also important." https://liberte.pl/dlaczego-opozycja-wygrala-wybory/ -- THE DRAFT LAW ON FREEZING ELECTRICITY PRICES, DESIGNATED FOR PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI, CAN BE CONSIDERED NULL AND VOID. WE WILL SOON PRESENT OUR OWN WHICH WILL BE PASSED BY THE SEJM - RESPONDS AN INTERLOCUTOR REPRESENTING THE PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY - IRENEUSZ SUDAK IN GW: "Will this happen before the swearing-in of Donald Tusk's new government, or after? – we inquire. The draft could be submitted to the Sejm as a parliamentary bill, so the formal appointment of Tusk's cabinet would not be necessary for this." https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,179190,30425587,wiekszosc-sejmowa-reaguje-na.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Katarzyna Kolenda-Zaleska, Katarzyna Janowska, Tomasz Serwański, Maciej Manicki, Wanda Nowicka, Joanna Lichocka, Patrycja Kotecka.

Łukasz Mężyk