state of play: 01/05/2026

STATE OF PLAY: Cichocki: Why should we side with Russian or Chinese imperialism in Venezuela? Beylin: If we think the far-right has hit a wall, we are mistaken.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TUSK'S MESSAGE TO EUROPE: OTHERWISE, WE ARE FINISHED, CENCKIEWICZ ON TRUMP'S POLICY: THE PRESIDENTIAL CENTER AND THE RIGHT-WING CAMP HAVE BET ON A RELIABLE PARTNER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-01-05/

-- IN POLAND, DUE TO THE US ATTACK ON VENEZUELA, WE HAVE REASONS TO FEAR THE PRIMACY OF FORCE OVER LAW, BUT WE MUST ALSO KNOW HOW TO DISTINGUISH FRIENDS FROM ENEMIES - MAREK CICHOCKI IN RZ: “Why should we side with Russian or Chinese imperialism in Venezuela? It turns out, however, that such a view can easily be classified today as typical Polish subservience to the USA. I don't know why overthrowing Nicolas Maduro, a communist despot ruling the country thanks to fraudulent elections, and blocking Russia, China, and Iran's access to a key Latin American region should be considered a catastrophe caused by American imperialism. Just as I don't understand why the lack of my outrage on this matter would be an expression of subservience and uncritical support for American policy in general. Nor do I know why I should side with Russian or Chinese imperialism and what blessed benefits I should expect from it for Poland, and moreover, in the name of some clever calculations by our amateur realists.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43590561-marek-a-cichocki-w-sprawie-wenezueli-nie-powinnismy-bronic-wrogow-i-atakowac-przyjaciol

-- TRUMP ANNOUNCED A LAW ON TARIFFS AIMED AT COUNTRIES BUYING RUSSIAN OIL - GW: “Donald Trump suggested that a bill on sanctions against Russia and tariffs on goods from countries buying Russian oil will soon be adopted by Congress. He also confirmed that, contrary to Putin's claims, Ukraine did not attack his residence.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,32506297,trump-zapowiedzial-ustawe-o-clach-wymierzonych-w-panstwa-kupujace.html

-- SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF EMPLOYEES BEING PUSHED INTO "SHREDDED" CONTRACTS, WHO SHOULD AND WANT TO WORK FULL-TIME. NOT PROSECUTING ALL THOSE EMPLOYED ON B2B - STATEMENT BY ONE OF THE MINISTERS IN MARIA KORCZ'S TEXT IN GW: “- What the coalition partners agreed on is to solve the problem of pushing employees, who should and want to work full-time, into 'shredded' contracts. Not prosecuting all those employed on B2B - says one of the ministers of the ruling coalition in an interview with Wyborcza.biz. In his opinion, the reason for the dispute between the Minister of Labor and the Prime Minister, which occurred during the last government session, was that the ministry's plans went too far. And – additionally – they were poorly communicated to the public.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,159911,32505238,lewica-zamierza-bronic-przeksztalcania-umow-koalicjanci-sa.html

-- SOMEONE MORE INFLUENTIAL THAN BEFORE FROM THE BROADLY UNDERSTOOD ENTREPRENEURIAL CIRCLE MET - EITHER WITH MINISTER BERK OR PRIME MINISTER TUSK - MARCIN FIJOŁEK IN POLITYCZNY WF POLSAT NEWS: “Marcin Fijołek heard several versions of events about what happened in recent weeks that the provisions strengthening the role of the National Labour Inspectorate "fell off" the Council of Ministers' agenda. In "Polityczny WF", he shared one of them. - Someone more influential than before from the broadly understood entrepreneurial circle met - either with Minister Berk or Prime Minister Tusk - he explained.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-awantura-na-radzie-ministrow-tajemniczy-lobbysta-wyprosil-kr,nId,22504916

-- "HE BELIEVES HE LOST THE ELECTION DUE TO LEFT-WING POLICIES." TRZASKOWSKI IS POLISHING A NEW IDEA FOR HIMSELF - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “- Rafał still believes he will play a role in national politics, although it's hard to imagine how that could happen today. We all in Civic Coalition doubt his determination and decisiveness, and whether the president will find enough courage to challenge Tusk - wonders a progressive Civic Coalition MP. - There is no Trzaskowski faction in Civic Coalition anymore - she adds with bitterness.”

-- FROM YEAR TO YEAR WARSAW WILL BECOME UNLIVABLE - GRUSZCZYŃSKI ON A POSSIBLE PERSPECTIVE: “The budget surplus is not being allocated to bold investments, the quality of life in the city has not yet deteriorated, but without a efficiently functioning office, without competent deputies, people with experience and imagination, Warsaw will become unlivable from year to year – with high rents, late buses, unfinished construction sites, an undervalued Praga district, disappearing bookstores, or a growing number of people in homelessness crisis in a city without public baths, and with the only municipal shelters in one district.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32500581,rafal-nadal-mysli-ze-odegra-wazna-role-w-polskiej-polityce.html

-- IF WE THINK THE FAR-RIGHT IN POLAND HAS HIT A WALL, THEN, AS I FEAR, WE ARE MISTAKEN - MAREK BEYLIN IN GW: “Of course, Nawrocki did not invent this Polishness. He only gathered its existing elements within PiS and Konfederacja. Now he is radicalizing and unifying them. So, if we think that the far-right in Poland has already hit a wall, then, as I fear, we are mistaken. The wall is constantly moving, aggression is growing, as evidenced by, for example, Braun's career. Because this Polishness is fighting for its own development, which, unfortunately, we will see this year.”

-- POLAND, DEPRIVED OF EUROPEAN ALLIANCES, OUTSIDE THE UNION, CEASES TO BE NEEDED BY THE WORLD. AT BEST, IT CAN BECOME A TOOL OF THE POWERFUL - BEYLIN'S CONCLUSION: “Poland, ruled by extreme forces, might be useful to him as a destroyer of the Union, a useful idiot for MAGA, but beyond that, he doesn't care. If it disappeared, he would barely notice. This is also the drama of this version of Polishness: Poland, deprived of European alliances, outside the Union, ceases to be needed by the world. At best, it can become a tool of the powerful.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32505737,zewszad-czyha-wrog-czyli-dziwna-polskosc-karola-nawrockiego.html

-- IS THERE A NEED FOR MORAWIECKI'S FORMATION? ABSOLUTELY. BECAUSE WE HAVE ORPHANS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED "THIRD WAY" - MARCIN PALADE IN CONVERSATION WITH RYSZARD GROMADZKI IN DO RZECZY: “It would probably be an attempt to build something that positions itself to the right of Civic Coalition, reaching as far as PiS. Right-wing in worldview, pro-market, and euro-realistic. Is there a demand for such a formation? Absolutely. Because we have orphans of the "Third Way" mentioned by you. Not all former voters of Poland 2050 fled to Konfederacja. Not everyone sees Szymon Hołownia's party as a small addition to the great Civic Coalition in the 2027 elections. There is also the PSL, which, although it announces an independent start, knows that this action carries a high risk of not making it into the next Sejm. In short: there are 1 million to 2 million voters, which would translate into 5% to 10% in elections, in a broad center, who are fed up with the two most popular retirees on the Vistula: Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk. If several circles could unite under one banner, which will be extremely difficult, it would open the perspective of a post-election coalition of Civic Coalition, part of Konfederacja, and this center. It would mean being outside the fold of PiS, the national part of Konfederacja, Korona on one side, and Lewica and Razem on the other.”

-- MORAWIECKI'S FORMATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE NAIL IN PIS'S COFFIN - BELIEVES PALADE IN CONVERSATION WITH DO RZECZY: “It would certainly be the nail in the coffin. Because it would fall at a time of decline for that formation. When you have 40%, a splinter, although visible to the eye, does not kill. When you have less than 30%, removing a few blocks can significantly damage the foundation of the structure. And this very taking away of five to six percentage points from Kaczyński by Morawiecki, coupled with Grzegorz Braun's continued effective poaching of PiS voters, would lead directly to seeking a polling balance around 20%. But without guarantees of maintaining it, because the myth of Kaczyński as the only effective protector against Tusk, his only patriotic party, is already passé. Another level below which, with Kaczyński still active in politics, his formation should not fall, is the result from the 2001 elections. That's already a place where there's no one except the hardest of the hardest PiS voters. Those who are with Kaczyński forever and ever. But for this variant of a double-digit result to materialize, there would have to be a volte-face by the influential Republic circle.”
https://dorzeczy.pl/opinie/827105/palade-w-do-rzeczy-prawdziwa-przyczyna-wojny-w-pis.html

-- TUSK HAS REASONS TO BE SATISFIED, BUT THE PATH THE GOVERNMENT IS TAKING IS VERY NARROW - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “Donald Tusk has the situation under control after Rafał Trzaskowski's defeat, the economic situation is good, forecasts are optimistic, and the right wing is torn apart by conflict. On the other hand, he has to deal with serious risks. The path the government is taking is very narrow. (...) It is therefore worth remembering that a year ago, everything indicated that Jarosław Kaczyński had made a big mistake by betting on Karol Nawrocki, and Rafał Trzaskowski was on a clear path to victory, which would allow the ruling coalition to finish the process of "cleaning up after PiS" in almost all areas, including the rule of law. As we know, the opposite happened. Perhaps the government's biggest challenge will therefore be dealing with how unpredictable politics is today.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/donald-tusk-ma-powody-do-zadowolenia-walka-na-prawicy-sprzyja-koalicji/nw3t8gf,452ad802

-- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Mleczko, Michał Lorenc Jr.
 


Łukasz Mężyk