-- SZEFERNAKER TO PIASECKI: I AM VERY HAPPY TO SPEND THE LAST DAY OF THE YEAR, WHICH SAW NAWROCKI BECOME PRESIDENT, AT TVN - 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- THE CEILING HAS NOT FALLEN ON THE RULERS' HEADS. DESPITE DEFEAT, THE COALITION APPEARS MORE VITAL, BETTER ORGANIZED, AND MORE CONFIDENT - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The ceiling has somehow not fallen on the rulers’ heads. Despite the defeat, the coalition seems even more vital, better organized, and more confident. And everything is changing like a kaleidoscope. Not long ago, Jarosław Kaczyński was being congratulated for his political instinct, while Donald Tusk was predicted to be in decline. Now they have smoothly swapped roles.”

-- IT SHOULD BE CLARIFIED WHETHER NAWROCKI CAN LEARN FROM MISTAKES, OR IF HE IS MERELY A POLITICAL THUG IN AN ETERNAL STANDOFF - KALUKIN CONTINUES IN THE NEW YEAR'S ISSUE OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “He overestimated the power of presidential tools, with which he is unable to effectively discipline the government and enforce obedience. In the end, it turned out that by blocking things firmly, the president is mainly harming himself. Following the next decisions, it should be clarified whether Nawrocki can learn from his mistakes, or if he is merely a political thug in an eternal standoff. If it is the latter, he will most likely continue to be outmaneuvered by a much more experienced prime minister, which will deepen the chaos on the entire right.”

-- THE CHAIRMAN MISSED THAT NAWROCKI WON AS A CANDIDATE OF REBELLION AGAINST THE OLD POLITICAL HIERARCHY, OF WHICH TUSK AND KACZYŃSKI WERE SYMBOLS TOGETHER - STILL KALUKIN: “After the recent elections, he made one of the biggest mistakes of his career. He erred in his fundamental diagnosis, attributing the main credit to himself. He clearly assumed that Nawrocki's victory was the result of another clever maneuver, like a decade earlier with Andrzej Duda. The chairman missed that Nawrocki won as a candidate of rebellion against the old political hierarchy, of which Tusk and Kaczyński were symbols together. This in itself indicated the weakening of PiS.”

-- THE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GROWING SOCIAL PROBLEMS WHEN FRONT-LINE VETERANS SUFFERING FROM PTSD JOIN THE UKRAINIAN FAMILIES ALREADY SETTLED IN POLAND. THEN ANTI-UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION MAY INTENSIFY, BENEFITING BRAUN - STILL RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “A temporary reduction in tensions in our neighborhood could therefore somewhat calm moods in the country, weakening the most extreme currents. But this is on the condition that Russia abandons its aggressive rhetoric, which is not anticipated. On the other hand, the potential cessation of hostilities will likely result in growing social problems when front-line veterans suffering from PTSD join the Ukrainian families already settled in Poland. Then anti-Ukrainian mobilization may intensify further, benefiting Braun and Konfederacja, which has recently been pushed into the background but is more deeply rooted in the right-wing electorate.”

-- WITHOUT AT LEAST RELATIVE ECONOMIC STABILITY, THE COALITION UNDER TUSK'S COMMAND WILL HARDLY BE ABLE TO CONTINUE ITS POLITICAL OFFENSIVE - CLAIMS RAFAŁ KALUKIN: “Without at least relative economic stability, the coalition under Tusk's command will hardly be able to continue its political offensive, which is currently fueled by the accelerated settlements of the PiS governments and confrontations with Nawrocki. Material concerns will return to the forefront, and their satisfaction will become very difficult. Unless, in the package of fears, the fear of Russian aggression proves stronger after all, which would favor the government center.”

-- THE CIVIC COALITION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLDINGS, PERHAPS EVEN GROW SLIGHTLY - KALUKIN BELIEVES: “The Civic Coalition will likely maintain its holdings, perhaps even grow slightly. Its supporters have no alternative, and with a confrontational Nawrocki and a growing Braun, their demobilization should not be expected either. It is more difficult to assess Tusk's potential. Will he decide to be the face of his formation in the next campaign? Today he would probably not even hesitate, but a year is a long time in politics. If the need arises to designate a replacement (Sikorski? someone from outside the political establishment?), the discussion should already be germinating in a year.”

-- MORAWIECKI SUGGESTS THAT IF HE CONTINUES TO BE MARGINALIZED IN PiS, HE IS READY TO QUIT. FOR KACZYŃSKI'S FORMATION, THIS WOULD BE A NIGHTMARISH SCENARIO - STILL KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Or perhaps another right-wing formation? Mateusz Morawiecki suggests that if he continues to be marginalized in PiS, he is ready to quit. For Kaczyński's formation, this would be a nightmarish scenario, as confused PiS voters might completely lose faith in the durability of the traditional right-wing bastion. However, Morawiecki is unlikely to build a career on his departure, which he should be aware of.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2327145,1,blad-kaczynskiego-ambicje-nawrockiego-sufit-brauna-10-kluczowych-pytan-na-2026-rok-jedno-za-sto-punktow

-- THE ELECTIONS REVEALED A COMPLETELY NEW SOCIAL MAP OF THE POLISH RIGHT, WHICH IS QUALITATIVELY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ARE USED TO - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH KAMILA BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA: “Undoubtedly, Karol Nawrocki's victory increased the probability of the right returning to power. This is the main consequence. The second consequence is the complication of the situation on the right. Not because Karol Nawrocki is distant from PiS or wants to be independent of it, because I have no doubt that he will be a politician loyal to Kaczyński to the end, as he knows who he owes his election to. The crux of the matter is that these elections revealed a completely new social map of the Polish right, which is qualitatively different from what we are used to.”

-- PiS, GIVEN THE STRONG POSITION OF MENTZEN AND BRAUN, DOES NOT HAVE THE INSTRUMENTS TO HARNESS THIS NEW RIGHT-WING SPACE - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK CONTINUES AT BARANOWSKA'S: “Today, a right-wing emerges that stems from different premises, which, even if it is conservative, is so in a slightly different way than the older generation, as it no longer feels a strong connection to the Church, and on some issues, it may hold views very distant from the Church. The second round of presidential elections and the creation of such a broad social coalition around Nawrocki by his campaign team became the cause of victory, but also the seed of problems within PiS, which, given the strong position of Mentzen and Braun, does not have the instruments to harness this new right-wing space.”

-- IT CAN BE SAID THAT PALLIATIVE CARE WAS RATHER APPLIED HERE, SO THERE IS NO POINT EXPECTING ANY GREAT SUCCESSES - CHWEDORUK ON THE RULERS: “It doesn't look bad, although one might get the impression that palliative care was rather applied here, so there's no point expecting any great successes. The strengthening of bipolarization, which Tusk is constantly nurturing, had one goal: to save Donald Tusk's leadership. Because if Donald Tusk was unable to lead Rafał Trzaskowski to victory, who had been the undisputed favorite for five years, someone might want to question the sense of his leadership. For example, there might be proposals for him to step aside, become Marshal of the Senate after the elections, and make way for someone new. Tusk, however, has shown his strength and that he is still pulling all the strings in the current games and knows how to position himself in the new reality.”

-- AT THE HALFWAY POINT OF THE TERM, IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR WHAT THIS GOVERNMENT CAN TRULY ACHIEVE STRATEGICALLY - CHWEDORUK AGAIN AT BARANOWSKA'S ON INTERIA: “At the halfway point of the term, it is not very clear what this government can truly achieve strategically beyond a dramatic attempt to defend the symbolic 'hot water in the tap.' Although even that, to put it half-jokingly, is difficult due to the rising heating costs.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-nie-tylko-karol-nawrocki-wygral-politycznie-miniony-rok-eksp,nId,22503386

-- WILL 2026 BE THE YEAR OF BRAUN? - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ ON INTERIA: “For democratic formations, this is certainly an alarm, and for Polish conservatives – who dreamed of building a stable center but failed – a clarion call. There are several reasons why the formation under the sign of the Auschwitz lie, anti-Ukrainian phobias, pro-Russian passions, and aggressive actions is gaining increasing popularity at the expense of other right-wing forces and at the expense of the existing polarization.”

-- ON THE LIBERAL SIDE, THIS FACT IS RELUCTANTLY ACKNOWLEDGED, SATISFIED WITH THE JOY OF FIRST PLACE, WHICH DOES NOT OFFER ANY CHANCE OF FURTHER RULE AFTER THE ELECTIONS - SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES ON INTERIA: “It is also puzzling that on the liberal side, this fact is reluctantly acknowledged, satisfied with the joy of first place, which does not offer any chance of further rule after the elections. The prime minister, who will be increasingly reluctant to share power within his party, will face the challenge of finding a way to break this deadlock. Or, after 2027, to move into opposition.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-2026-bedzie-rokiem-brauna,nId,22503633

-- OVER 62% OF POLES ARE AGAINST POLAND JOINING THE EURO ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT TEN YEARS, INCLUDING OVER 40% DECIDEDLY - IBRIS FOR RZ: “Polish society is in no hurry to say goodbye to the zloty. This is clearly demonstrated by an IBRiS survey commissioned by 'Rzeczpospolita' (conducted on December 19-20 using the CATI method on a nationwide sample of 1068 people). They were asked whether Poland should adopt the euro instead of the zloty within the next 10 years. Only 28.5% of respondents answered yes (including 10.5% who strongly agreed). Over 62% of respondents were against joining the euro zone, including as many as nearly 44% who strongly opposed it. We are therefore very far from social consent for the euro.”
https://www.rp.pl/finanse/art43568131-euro-w-polsce-w-ciagu-dziesieciu-lat-polacy-sa-przeciwni

-- HEATING CAMPAIGN ON EURO SUCCESS. THE RISK OF POLEXIT IS GROWING - KRZYSZTOF ADAM KOWALCZYK IN RZ: “Two-thirds of Poles who don't want it even in 10 years is a sign that the risk of Polexit is growing, even – as in the UK – a completely accidental one. The far-right is therefore intensifying its anti-EU hate campaign, supported by anonymous social media accounts, including those using artificial intelligence tools to promote Polexit. Since the strike at the euro was successful, they are hoping for more.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art43573571-krzysztof-adam-kowalczyk-sukces-hejtu-na-euro-rosnie-ryzyko-polexitu

-- NOT SO MUCH A REAL CONFLICT AS POLITICAL THEATER. WHEN NAWROCKI AND TUSK AGREE ON STRATEGIC MATTERS, THEY NEED TO ESCALATE SUBSTITUTE CONFLICTS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Isn't it the case that the more the president and the prime minister agree on fundamental issues, the more they need to initiate substitute wars to maintain polarization? Because, as I wrote some time ago, a mutually fueled dispute benefits both the prime minister and the president.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43574721-michal-szuldrzynski-gdy-zgoda-boli-bardziej-niz-spor-afera-notatkowa-i-kolejna-wojna-o-nic

-- POLITICAL CONTROL OF CULTURE. IS THIS THE LIBERAL NORMALITY? - MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “The new authorities, on the other hand, have been stubbornly proving for two years that advancement is reserved for 'ours,' and overly broad smiles in photos with Piotr Gliński will sooner or later be accounted for, without exception, even in the case of the most outstanding statesmen.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43572581-michal-plocinski-polityczne-sterowanie-kultura-to-ma-byc-ta-liberalna-normalnosc

-- WARSAW NOT SO PROGRESSIVE? TRZASKOWSKI AND COUNCILLORS ARE SILENT ON THE ECJ RULING ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGES - WOJCIECH KARPIESZUK IN GW: “Kraków, Sosnowiec, Wrocław, Świdnica – more cities are appealing to the government for the swiftest possible implementation of the ECJ ruling on the transcription of same-sex marriage certificates. Why is Warsaw silent, whose councillors and mayor march in the Equality Parade? While other local governments are speaking out and urging the government, Warsaw is silent. Neither the councillors nor the city hall have officially commented on this matter. This is surprising, as Warsaw is considered a progressive city with a large LGBT community, and Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski signed the so-called LGBT+ Declaration in 2019.”
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,32499286,warszawa-nie-taka-progresywna-cisza-w-sprawie-wyroku-tsue-o.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Sakiewicz, Sylwester Ruszkiewicz. NEW YEAR: Piotr Pacewicz, Piotr Pyzik, Mateusz Matyszkowicz, Michał Danielewski, Sławomir Piechota, Eugeniusz Smolar, Jan Dworak, Mieczysław Struk, Adam Struzik, Genowefa Grabowska, Leszek Korzeniowski.