state of play: 01/03/2026

STATE OF PLAY: Left-wing politician at Szpala: Kaczyński struggles with factions, Tusk gains backing from Czarzasty allowing him to challenge PiS and the President, Chwedoruk: PiS stagnation will progress

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE PRIME MINISTER AT TODAY'S MEETING: The year 2026 begins with a strong impact. For us, these are challenges related to local weather crises and the situation on the roads, in some towns, and on railway lines. On a global scale, we have an attack by American forces on Venezuela, on Caracas.

-- IMF FORECASTS THAT IN THIS YEAR, PER CAPITA INCOME ADJUSTED FOR PURCHASING POWER PARITY (PPP) WILL BE HIGHER IN POLAND THAN IN THE KINGDOM OF SPAIN - RZ:
https://www.rp.pl/gospodarka/art43587801-polak-z-wiekszym-dochodem-w-2026-roku-niz-hiszpan

-- KACZYŃSKI HAS PROBLEMS WITH PARTY FACTIONS, AND TUSK HAS GAINED BACKING THAT ALLOWS HIM TO CHALLENGE PIS AND THE PRESIDENT. MARSHAL WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY PROVIDES THESE GUARANTEES – IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “– Kaczyński has problems with party factions, and Tusk has gained backing that allows him to challenge PiS and the President. Marshal Włodzimierz Czarzasty provides these guarantees – one of the left-wing politicians begins a conversation about his party leader. He assures that the leader of the left genuinely appreciates his predecessor, Szymon Hołownia, but has his own concept for the role of Marshal. – What concept? – we ask. – I would say, more offensive. The events in the Sejm are part of a broader political strategy of the coalition, to which the left is a loyal partner – he replies”.

-- CZARZASTY LIKES TO IMPLY BETWEEN THE LINES THAT THE OCCUPANT OF THE PALACE CANNOT BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY – SZPALA FURTHER IN GW: “When the President ordered the dismantling of the Round Table, announcing that post-communism was symbolically ending, Czarzasty replied that he would gladly take the furniture to the Sejm. Because he is not ashamed of it. Reminding at the same time that Nawrocki was six years old during the deliberations. After the President announced that Poland was losing its subjectivity in relations with Ukraine, he replied that this was not true. And he is little interested in the complexes of a man who specializes in fighting with people in the forest. 'We will not stand in the anteroom. We will simply punch them in the face and then it will be fine. If I meet them in the forest, I will show them who is stronger' – this statement by the Marshal clearly referred to the President. Because Czarzasty likes to imply between the lines that the occupant of the palace cannot be taken seriously”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32502589,politycy-ko-czarzasty-ma-plan-nie-da-sie-nawrockiemu.html

-- CHWEDORUK BELIEVES THAT "REGARDING LAW AND JUSTICE, STAGNATION WILL PROGRESS IN 2026" – IN PIOTR OLEJARCZYK'S ARTICLE ON ONET: “Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk believes that 'regarding Law and Justice, stagnation will progress in 2026.' – This party is heavily entrenched in its traditional electorate, but this electorate is not growing for many reasons, including demographic ones. Recent years have revealed a gap between the views of Poles in young and middle age and the traditional PiS agenda – he notes”.

-- CHWEDORUK BELIEVES IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR CIVIC PLATFORM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT GROWTH IN POLLS – FURTHER ON ONET: “Prof. Chwedoruk believes that Civic Platform will find it difficult to maintain its current growth in polls. – In short, Civic Platform will have nowhere else to draw from – he says. – The strength of the right stabilizes its ratings. In the case of the left, with Platform making a certain move to the right, a slightly larger space opens up, and hence the current stabilization of the Left's ratings. With Czarzasty as Marshal, it will probably be easier for them to maintain this – he argues”.

-- THE COALITION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO CONTINUE ITS RULE AGAIN IF IT MANAGES THE DAILY LIVES OF CITIZENS – FURTHER CHWEDORUK AT OLEJARCZYK'S ON ONET: “Prof. Chwedoruk says that the main challenge for the Tusk government will be 'warm water in the tap.' – The cost of this water, the standard of daily life. If the coalition manages this (especially Minister Domański with maintaining budgetary balance and positive opinions about Poland in the markets), then the coalition will again have a chance to continue its rule – he believes”.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/jak-bedzie-wygladac-polska-polityka-w-2026-r-eksperci-przewiduja-kto-zyska-a-kto/5pjlnrv,79cfc278

-- ONE WONDERS IF THESE PEOPLE EATING ŻUREK WILL TRULY BE ABLE TO DEFEND US FROM AGGRESSION FROM RUSSIA – SAYS DR. HAB. ŁUKASZ MŁYŃCZYK, POLITICAL SCIENTIST FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WARSAW IN A CONVERSATION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “He engages in trolling political opponents, and this is his element. He finds numerous followers. We remember the public eating of żurek, as an expression of approval for the actions of Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek. Tusk was the first to do it, and his close associates followed. In my opinion, this shows the level of idiocy of the political class. One wonders if these people, eating żurek and reveling in this moment, will truly be able to defend us from aggression from Russia. When the healthcare financing system started to crumble, the vote on the arrest of Zbigniew Ziobro was immediately put on the agenda. And everyone was happy, saying they had been waiting for such a moment in their lives”.

-- 2026 IS ALREADY GOING TO WASTE. WE CAN PROBABLY NOT COUNT ON THE RULERS TO ADDRESS REAL PROBLEMS. IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO EAT ŻUREK THAN TO SOLVE PROBLEMS – FURTHER DR. MŁYŃCZYK AT OLCZYK IN RZ: “It means nothing because we live in the logic of a permanent election campaign. Therefore, 2026 is already going to waste. We can probably not count on the rulers to address real problems. It is more important to eat żurek than to solve problems”.

-- SOME KIND OF CONFRONTATION MUST OCCUR ON THE RIGHT BETWEEN PIS AND PRESIDENT KAROL NAWROCKI. KACZYŃSKI WILL NOT LET THIS GO, HE WILL WANT TO CONDUCT A LOYALTY TEST – DR. MŁYŃCZYK FURTHER IN RZ: “In turn, some kind of confrontation must occur on the right between PiS and President Karol Nawrocki. If the president continues to be so independent, PiS will gain nothing from creating the head of state. Because PiS, in a way, has to take responsibility for the president's decisions. Take the chain law – Jarosław Kaczyński, an animal lover, voted for it, and then did not participate in the vote to reject the veto because he did not want to vote against himself. So, it is already evident that the president is forcing certain attitudes within PiS. Moreover, Tusk has opted for confrontation with Nawrocki. They talk about a conflict between two palaces, not about Nowogrodzka, the seat of PiS. I think Jarosław Kaczyński will not let this go; he will want to conduct a loyalty test”.
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art43575471-politolog-dokad-maja-pojsc-rozczarowani-wyborcy-donalda-tuska

-- EVERYTHING TURNED OUT COMPLETELY DIFFERENTLY. THE NEW YEAR WILL PROBABLY BRING US MORE TWISTS AND TURNS – KAROLINA LEWICKA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The leader himself also reminds that previous schisms did not harm his party in any way. The current situation of PiS, mainly due to the double confederate competition, seems difficult, but a glance at the past 12 months shows that recently the characteristic of Polish politics has been rapid change. Nawrocki was predicted to be overtaken by Mentzen, Tusk was counted out, Kaczyński was already giving up for dead, and what? Everything turned out completely differently. The new year will probably bring us more twists and turns”.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2327105,1,zabetonowany-prezes-kaczynski-ma-wiele-zyc-wysadzic-z-siodla-sie-go-nie-da.read

-- THE VETOED LAW WOULD NOT ONLY STOP DIRECT TRANSFERS BUT WOULD NOT AFFECT THE OPERATION OF THE EXCHANGE REGULATED IN CYPRUS – IN IRENEUSZ SUDAK'S ARTICLE IN GW: “– What the Prime Minister said was inconsistent and essentially did not concern the problem of market supervision. According to the Prime Minister and the prosecutor's office, the saboteurs acted openly, using the official OKX exchange, licensed according to MiCA, with a Cypriot license – one of the 10 largest exchanges in the world. So, they didn't even try to hide, although they had the opportunity, by using direct, anonymous cryptocurrency transfers from phone to phone. The vetoed law would not only stop direct transfers but would not affect the operation of the exchange regulated in Cyprus – I hear”.
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147582,32473469,gangstawaluty-po-polsku-ledgery-wolka-kosowska-i-zywe-bankomaty.html

-- SO THAT PEOPLE WHO WORE DIAPERS OR GLUED TOGETHER THE ŁOŚ AND RWD-5 AIRCRAFT IN THE 1980S DO NOT CLAIM THEY FOUGHT COMMUNISM – ANDRZEJ BRZEZIECKI IN GW WITH WISHES FOR 2026.

-- SO THAT RESEARCHERS FROM THE NEW LEFT DO NOT NAIVELY IDEALIZE WANDA WASILEWSKA OR HELENA WOLIŃSKA AS EMANCIPATORS – FURTHER BRZEZIECKI IN GW.

-- SO THAT WE CAN TALK ABOUT KAROL WOJTYŁA, ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT POLES OF THE 20TH CENTURY, WITHOUT IDOLATRY, BUT ALSO WITHOUT PREJUDICE – YET FURTHER BRZEZIECKI IN GW:
https://wyborcza.pl/alehistoria/7,121681,32503901,andrzej-brzeziecki-zebysmy-odrozniali-historie-od-histo-polo.html

-- IWONA ŚLEDZIŃSKA-Katarasińska would be celebrating her 85th birthday today.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Alicja Pacewicz, Arleta Zalewska. SUNDAY: Stanisław Wądołowski, Andrzej Adamczyk, Marek Borowski turns 79, Bartosz Węglarczyk 54, Sławomir Wiatr.
 


Łukasz Mężyk