Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Flis: These 8% of voters who currently choose Razem, PSL, or Poland 2050 will decide. GW: Tusk stopped the Left's project, Wójcik in Krytyka: Poland's further turn to the right

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SZŁAPKA: KACZYŃSKI SPEAKS LIKE BRAUN AND DE FACTO PIS IS BRAUN” - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-01-02/

-- THE YEAR 2026 WILL MOST LIKELY BRING US STATE PARALYSIS, A WAR BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT AND THE GOVERNMENT, AND A FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT FOR POLAND. A POLITICAL ANALYSIS WITHOUT ILLUSIONS - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Furthermore, Europe is also turning to the right. The growing popularity of parties such as France's National Rally (formerly National Front) or Alternative for Germany is prompting mainstream politicians to adopt a more right-wing perspective. Disputes between member states will intensify in Europe, and Poland and the entire Central and Eastern European region will find themselves between a Russian hammer and a German anvil. This, of course, does not necessarily mean a repeat of history, but Poland will gradually begin to lose its investment attractiveness unless it embraces one of the superpowers. Poland's political class, vocally assertive and turning right, will have to limit its posturing to the domestic scene and tuck its tail between its legs abroad. Fortunately, Polish politicians are good at that.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/apokaliptyczne-prognozy-dla-polski-na-2026-rok/

-- KAROL NAWROCKI IS FIGHTING TODAY TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE RIGHT-WING, SO THAT HE CAN ACT AS THE POLITICAL FATHER OF A NEW, RIGHT-WING MAJORITY - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN O NET: “The president must be mentioned as a separate actor, because in less than half a year he has managed to emancipate himself politically from PiS more than Duda ever did. Nawrocki is fighting today for the entire right-wing to focus on him in 2027, so that he can act as the political father of a new, right-wing majority.”

-- THE CONFLICT ON THE RIGHT IS ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS ALLOWING THE COALITION TO LOOK AT THE SECOND HALF OF THE TERM WITH MODERATE OPTIMISM - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “The longer this fight on the right lasts, the longer it is unable to produce a clear winner capable of dominating the other players, the better it will be for the current governing majority. The fragmentation of the right and the conflict dividing it is today one of the key factors allowing it to look at the second half of the term with moderate optimism.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/nawrocki-vs-kaczynski-i-obydwie-konfederacje-tak-bedzie-wygladal-2026-r-w-polityce/gpw7sth,452ad802

-- THE TRANSFORMATION OF B2B INTO EMPLOYMENT CONTRACTS IS FALLING APART. TUSK ORDERED THE PROJECT TO BE WITHDRAWN AFTER A GOVERNMENT ROW - LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN GW: “People who want to stay on B2B can breathe easy. Prime Minister Tusk did not spare the project by the Minister of Labour from the Left. He ordered the project to be withdrawn from the government and instructed Dziemianowicz-Bąk to radically improve it. So what will happen to the project now? The Ministry of Labour is to restart work on it, having received a signal from the Prime Minister that the competencies of labour inspectors in contract transformations are to be curtailed.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,159911,32501544,przeksztalcanie-b2b-w-etaty-sie-sypie-tusk-po-awanturze-w-rzadzie.html

-- WHO WILL FORM THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE DECIDED BY THESE 8% OF VOTERS WHO CURRENTLY CHOOSE RAZEM, PSL, OR POLSKA 2050 - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The problem is that this exercise of power may last less than two years if nothing changes in the polls. Apart from the Left, the paradox of the situation is that – if one looks at the average of December party standings – who will form the government will be decided by these 8% of voters who currently choose Razem, PSL, or Poland 2050. If these voters were to vote for a hypothetical common list, it would have a majority in the Sejm along with KO and New Left. If any of these votes are wasted, falling below the threshold, a potential three-party coalition of PiS and two Confederation parties will gain a majority.”

-- THAT NAWROCKI'S WEAKNESSES WOULD COMPLETELY STUPIDIFY THE OTHER SIDE AND DRIVE THEM TO SUICIDAL MOVES COULD NOT HAVE BEEN PREDICTED - FLIS CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK: “Nawrocki had a poor start, with many skeletons in his closet, but his advantage became that he didn't care about them and just did his own thing. That his weaknesses would completely stupify the other side and drive them to suicidal moves could not have been predicted.”

-- PIS CLEARLY SLEPT THROUGH THE MOMENT WHEN, AFTER NAWROCKI'S SUCCESS, A PERSONAL RESET COULD HAVE BEEN MADE - PROF. FLIS CONTINUES: “PiS clearly slept through the moment when, after Nawrocki's success, a personal reset could have been made and a candidate for prime minister appointed who would be neither Morawiecki nor Czarnek, and who would be able to maintain a balance between the warring factions behind this pair, as well as prevent the threat from Braun.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/2026-bedzie-rokiem-przed-walna-bitwa-dokad-w-tym-czasie-poplynie-polska-192519

-- HOW THE ENERGY SYSTEM IS BEING TRANSFORMED IN THE THIRD REPUBLIC IS ALMOST A COPY OF ENERGIEWENDE. INCLUDING THE HASTY DEVELOPMENT OF GAS POWER PLANTS AND THE SHUTDOWN OF COAL ONES - ANDRZEJ KRAJEWSKI IN INTERIA: “The only way out of this trap that Chancellor Merz saw was massive subsidies, incurring debt, and the hope that this would bring economic recovery. This, in turn, would generate funds to complete the transformation. If he is wrong, then in a few years German companies will ultimately collide with the Chinese, American, and Indian wall. Unfortunately, Poland will not be able to watch this likely unpleasant sight with indifference. How the energy system is being transformed in the Third Republic is almost a copy of Energiewende. Including the hasty development of gas power plants and the shutdown of coal ones.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/zagranica/news-niemcy-slono-placa-za-energetyczne-bledy-polakow-tez-to-czek,nId,22503960

-- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Łukasz Juliusz Andrzejewski, Joanna Kopcińska, Daniel Obajtek.
 


Łukasz Mężyk