-- POLLSTER FOR SE:
KO 34.25
PIS 28.45
KONF 11
LEWICA 7.7
BRAUN 7.3
RAZEM 5
PSL 3.2
PL 2050 0.4
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/pis-wciaz-jest-liderem-prawicy-najwiekszy-wzrost-poparcia-odnotowala-lewica-aa-JGZJ-ytj8-y95n.html

-- SUSKI ON MORAWIECKI: A CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, PRESIDENT'S NIGHT POST: THE COMING DAYS WILL BE A TIME OF DECISIVE OUTCOMES IN THIS REGION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- NAWROCKI HAS IGNITED A WAVE OF RADICALISM GREATER THAN KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY PRESENTS. AND PIS TURNED OUT TO BE NOT RADICAL ENOUGH - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK WITH AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “Karol Nawrocki has ignited a wave of radicalism greater than what Kaczyński's party presents. And PiS turned out to be not radical enough. The main beneficiary of the Nawrocki effect has become Grzegorz Braun and his Korona. (...) But many right-wing voters, who constantly hear from PiS politicians that the European Union is a tool of Berlin aimed at enslaving Poland, wonder why we should even be in this Union if it is so terrible and daily produces new projects to subjugate Poland to Germany. Grzegorz Braun comes with an answer here. Kaczyński is lying, hedging, is not clear, is part of this system, only pretends to be an opponent of the Union, says the Union is bad, but does nothing about it. Braun says: Polexit immediately. And this part of the voters has shifted.”

-- IT WILL BE SOMEONE WHO WILL FIGHT BRAUN ON RADICALISM. ALTHOUGH OUTBIDDING BRAUN WILL BE DIFFICULT - PROF. DUDEK CONTINUES WITH KONDZIŃSKA: “One can expect someone from the right wing. What is interesting to me is whether it will be someone from the president's circle and how he will be received by Nawrocki. Hypothetically, it could be a tandem ruling Poland in the future. It will be someone who will compete with Braun in radicalism. Although outbidding Braun will be difficult, very difficult. For these voters, it is important that PiS constantly says that the EU is bad, but does not say that we should leave its ranks.”

-- DESPITE MEDIA GOSSIP, I DO NOT BELIEVE MORAWIECKI AND HIS PEOPLE WILL CAUSE A SPLIT SOON - STATES DUDEK: “Despite media gossip, I do not believe that Morawiecki and his people will cause a split in the party soon. The first such moment will be the arrangement of lists in late spring next year – if this environment were to be cut out, degraded, then this would be the time when Morawiecki might decide it makes no sense, that he can leave. But I don't think Kaczyński would cut them out that much.”

-- I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THAT THE BRAUN EFFECT IS TEMPORARY - DUDEK TELLS KONDZIŃSKA: “I don't believe in PiS governing alone at all; one would have to be overly optimistic for that. If PiS returns to power, it will be with two Confederations. Unless Braun's Korona falls below the threshold, because I would not rule out that the Braun effect is temporary. It is not at all certain that he has guaranteed 10% support.”

-- THEY DID NOT LEARN FROM NAWROCKI'S RESISTANCE TO MEDIA ATTACKS DURING THE CAMPAIGN, HE IS THE POLITICIAN WITH THE THICKEST SKIN IN POLISH POLITICS - PROF. DUDEK CONTINUES IN GW: “They did not learn at all from Nawrocki's resistance to media attacks during the campaign. He is a politician with the thickest skin in Polish politics; this must be clearly stated. Some Civic Platform MPs hurling accusations at Nawrocki do not impress him; it just rolls off him. The hope that his popularity will decrease is also illusory. It might decrease, he won't worry about it right now. For Nawrocki, popularity will be important in 2029 or 2030, when he fights for re-election. Not now, when his goal is to topple the current government, which is why he will veto more and more. I have not a shadow of a doubt about that.”

-- I THINK THAT IN THE LONG TERM, THE NEW LEFT WILL NOT INCREASE ITS SUPPORT, ONLY THE RAZEM PARTY WILL DO SO WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF INCREASING RADICALIZATION - PROF. DUDEK AGAIN: “Just as I don't believe in a constitutional majority for the right, I don't believe in an independent majority for KO. I also doubt a majority with the New Left. There is an impression that Czarzasty is on the offensive, but how will he bounce back and how long will this last in the polls? I think that in the long term, the New Left will not increase its support, only the Razem party will, within the framework of increasing radicalization. Of course, radicalization mainly concerns the right side, but there is also a minority that is radicalizing to the left, and they will support Razem rather than the New Left. There are many scenarios, everything is possible.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32626896,prof-dudek-dla-wyborczej-wiekszosc-pis-chce-skretu-w-prawo.html

-- THE PROBLEM WITH BOCHEŃSKI IS THAT THE ONLY PERSON WHO LIKES HIM IS KACZYŃSKI HIMSELF, CZARNEK COULD BE AN OPTION THAT MORAWIECKI WOULD BE ABLE TO SWALLOW - PIOTR SEMKA QUOTES AN ANONYMOUS PIS POLITICIAN - IN THE TEXT IN DO RZECZY: “The problem with Bocheński is that the only person who likes him is Kaczyński himself. In the rest of the party, he is rather disliked or considered someone who is too arrogant. It would be rather difficult to assume that he will be supported by the whole party. And who else remains on the list? Patryk Jaki is rather an unlikely option. Anna Krupka was added to the pool of prime ministerial candidates purely on the basis of rumor. In this set, Przemysław Czarnek could be an option that Morawiecki would be able to swallow,” says one of the important PiS politicians.”

-- CZARNEK COULD CREATE A CAMPAIGN MODEL THAT WOULD NOT ANTAGONIZE MORAWIECKI WITH THE REST OF THE PARTY - SEMKA CONTINUES IN DO RZECZY: “After that, Kaczyński never returned to that promise, and Czarnek was wise enough not to show dissatisfaction. Instead, he calmed his rhetoric. He carefully ensured not to clash with Morawiecki, unlike, for example, politicians from Solidarna Polska. Now, many PiS politicians believe that Czarnek could create a campaign model that, on the one hand, would not antagonize Morawiecki with the rest of the party, but on the other hand, would also provide guarantees that the party would not waver towards a grouping focused solely on the budget and inflation indicators.”
https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/852677/prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-piotr-semka-co-z-tym-morawieckim.html

-- THE LAST THING WE SHOULD DO IS LOOK TO THE MASSES. THESE MASSES ARE MOSTLY 'EURO-COLCHOSNIKS,' NOT POLES - GRZEGORZ BRAUN IN A CONVERSATION WITH RYSZARD GROMADZKI IN DO RZECZY: “This is precisely the analogy I propose. And having built it, I declare that, in order to regain independence, the last thing we should do is look to the masses. These masses are mostly 'Euro-colchostniks,' not Poles, not Polish independence advocates. And even those who are offended by being called 'Euro-colchostniks,' who feel Polish, they too, for the most part, no longer have the vigor for independence. This vigor must be shown by a determined minority. And this role is taken on by the Confederation of Polish Crown. We say: 'let's regain independence,' because otherwise the Polish cause will not find a favorable solution in any aspect. Neither the issue of the demographic catastrophe, nor the matter of the financial catastrophe of the Polish state, nor personal freedom, nor economic freedom will be restored if we do not regain independence. There is also no geopolitical solution favorable to Poland, there is no prospect of peaceful coexistence among our neighbors, if Poland's raison d'état is tied to someone else's chariot, and Polish interests are regulated by foreign capitals and their agents.”

-- WE HAVE BROKEN IN, ONE MIGHT SAY, THROUGH THE BACK DOOR INTO PUBLIC SPACE - BRAUN TELLS GROMADZKI IN DO RZECZY: “We have broken in, one might say, through the back door into public space. We are the only party that has parliamentary representation but no budget subsidy, no airtime. The law on public media is chronically violated against us. If, under these circumstances, we achieve double-digit results in polls, it means that by operating 'without oxygen,' we have achieved quite a lot.”

-- THEY DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM A COALITION WITH THE CONFEDERATION OF POLISH CROWN AS IF THEY WERE EXPLAINING THEMSELVES TO SOMEONE. PERHAPS THE AMERICAN-ISRAELI AMBASSADOR - BRAUN AGAIN WITH GROMADZKI IN DO RZECZY: “I would sooner expect, because it follows directly from Jarosław Kaczyński's declarations, but also from the statements of some of his praetorians, that the broad coalition we can expect will be a PO-PiS coalition, in order to block the extreme right from coming to power, as they call it. They distance themselves from a coalition with the Confederation of Polish Crown as if they were explaining themselves to someone. Perhaps to the American-Israeli ambassador, who has been indicated as the source of their inspiration. They repeat that they can work politically with anyone, just not with the Confederation of Polish Crown. If so, it means, let's face the truth, that they are determined to prolong Donald Tusk's rule indefinitely, as long as the independence-minded right does not co-create joint governments in Poland.”
https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/852647/braun-to-jest-moment-w-ktorym-nalezy-siegnac-po-niepodleglosc.html

-- OUR AGRICULTURE IS MORTALLY THREATENED BY IMPORTS OF CHEAP PRODUCTION FROM UKRAINE; WE MUST DEFEND OUR FOOD SECURITY IN SOME WAY. BUT THE OVERALL TRADE BALANCE REMAINS EXCELLENT FOR US. OUR EXPORTS TO UKRAINE ARE SOMETIMES THREE TIMES GREATER THAN IMPORTS - PIOTR GURSZTYN IN TYGODNIK SIECI: “Let's repeat: there have been problems, there are, and there always will be. The question is whether we treat them as an opportunity or a catastrophe. Our agriculture is mortally threatened by imports of cheap production from Ukraine. This is a huge challenge, and we must defend our food security in some way. But the overall trade balance remains excellent for us. Our exports to Ukraine are sometimes three times greater than imports. So how not to throw the baby out with the bathwater? Because for now, due to the cynicism of some players, the stupidity of others, lack of imagination, and widespread fear, we are harming ourselves.”

-- WE ARE BEING WARNED OF 'UKRAINIZATION' – WE HEAR. BUT HOW? IF YOU ASK THE SAME PEOPLE WHETHER ENGLAND OR GERMANY IS THREATENED BY 'POLONIZATION' - PIOTR GURSZTYN CONTINUES IN SIECI: “The frequent fear among Poles is also depressing. We hear that we are threatened by 'Ukrainization.' But how? If you asked the same people whether England or Germany is threatened by 'Polonization' due to Poles living there, they would answer no. They know that our national community has mostly lost these people or their children who will assimilate there. Is Poland, then, so hopelessly weak that it can be denationalized by the influx of several hundred thousand poorer people? Do they not believe in the strength of Polish culture relative to Ukrainian to such an extent?”

-- REGARDING THE ALLEGED UKRAINIZATION, THE TRUTH IS THE OPPOSITE. UKRAINE WILL LOSE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF ITS CITIZENS BECAUSE THEY WILL CHOOSE A SAFER AND MORE COMFORTABLE LIFE IN OTHER COUNTRIES - GURSZTYN CONTINUES: “Interpersonal or interstate relations are never completely harmonious. We must accept that something grates from time to time. The overall balance is important. Regarding the alleged Ukrainization, the truth is the opposite. Ukraine will lose hundreds of thousands of its citizens because they will choose a safer and more comfortable life in other countries. Their children will adopt the local national identity. Let's look at one indicator. In 2024, about 2.5 thousand Polish-Ukrainian marriages were registered in Poland (a large increase compared to previous years). 80% of them are marriages between a Pole and a Ukrainian woman, which is a typical model for any immigration called 'hypergamy,' where a woman tries to raise her status through marriage. It was the same when Polish women married Germans or Englishmen.”

-- UKRAINE SCEPTICS HAVE NO ANSWERS - PIOTR GURSZTYN AGAIN: “The overall conclusion, however, is depressing. This is because in such a politically and socially important matter, emotions win, not reflection on the benefits for Poland. People overcome by negative feelings, as well as politicians and other public figures who stir them up, readily point out numerous negatives on the Ukrainian side. Many of them are entirely true, but these same people do not answer the fundamental question: what to do next? Ukraine is a large and important country, our direct neighbor. Many of its citizens are of Polish nationality, and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians live in the Republic of Poland. There are economic ties. The issue of Russian imperialism is crucial for everyone. What to do about it? 'Ukraine sceptics' have no answer to this question.”
https://wpolityce.pl/tygodniksieci/754196-od-entuzjazmu-do-zniechecenia-co-bedzie-dalej

-- ANNIVERSARY OF AN ATTEMPTED COUP IN KAROL NAWROCKI'S CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS - AS GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK WROTE A YEAR AGO IN MONEY: “A group consisting of: Tobiasz Bocheński, Patryk Jaki, Jacek Sasin, and Elżbieta Witek tried to take over command of Nawrocki's campaign. Bocheński was to become the new head of the campaign, Jaki responsible for its online presence, and Witek and Sasin were to set its direction. Ultimately, this did not happen because the convention turned out to be a success - reports our interlocutor.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/marne-efekty-zbiorki-krok-od-sztabowego-zamachu-stanu-problemy-na-zapleczu-nawrockiego-7132630093142976a.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Katarzyna Kuczyńska-Budka.