Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Prof. Ewa Marciniak: Braun Overestimated, Machowski: Democrats' Lead Since Elections Has Dropped to Virtually Zero, RZ: KO Wins, But the Right Holds a Clear Majority

Łukasz Mężyk

-- OH DEAR… AND WHAT NOW? MERZ SUPPORTS US EMBARGO ON SPAIN, claiming it aims to "convince" the country to increase NATO spending: https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2028885697612902749?s=20

-- TRUMP CRITICIZES MERKEL AND PRAISES MERZ: https://x.com/d_lisx/status/2028884859330986264?s=20

-- KRAKÓW TO SPEND EVEN MORE ON A MUNICIPAL NEWSPAPER TO SAVE MISZALSKI FROM A REFERENDUM - PAWEŁ FIGURSKI ON ZERO.PL: “2,412,894 PLN – this is exactly how much Kraków will spend on printing and distributing the municipal newspaper Kraków.pl – according to Zero.pl. What's more, the city has secured as much as 4.2 million PLN for this purpose in its budget. In the year of a probable referendum on the recall of Mayor Aleksander Miszalski, the circulation of the municipal newspaper has jumped from 30,000 to 220,000 copies.”
https://zero.pl/news/krakow-wyda-24-mln-zl-na-gazete-krakow-pl-w-roku-referendum-ws-odwolania-miszalskiego

-- THE BROTH FROM TRZASKOWSKI, THE PRESSED ESSENCE OF A… TRZASKOWSKI LOST, NOT HIS ASSOCIATES – OCENIŁ STANOWSKI ON THE CONVERSATION WITH ŻURNALISTA: https://youtu.be/3R3VpqHsE5M?si=nzewv5wAb6MoiVTO

-- STANOWSKI'S LONG COMMENTARY WAS WATCHED BY OVER 600,000 ON YT IN 20 HOURS.

-- TRZASKOWSKI ON ŻURNALISTA HAS 176,000 VIEWS AFTER 2 DAYS.

-- QUOTES FROM THE CONVERSATION WITH TRZASKOWSKI ON OUR MONDAY LIVE BLOG: TRZASKOWSKI ASKED IF COALITION PARTNERS CAUSED HIM MORE HARM IN THE CAMPAIGN THAN NAWROCKI: PROBABLY SO TO A LARGE EXTENT: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-03-02

-- CZARNEK: KPO WAS A MISTAKE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- PROF. EWA MARCINIAK: CONFEDERATION OF THE POLISH CROWN IS OVERESTIMATED - IN A CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Braun's Confederation is a fashionable group today, but not a party with which its supporters strongly identify. Braun provides emotions, political entertainment, but he doesn't seem to be building lasting bonds with voters. I believe Braun's party is overestimated today.”

-- BOSAK STRONGLY BUILDS THE CONFEDERATION'S IMAGE - FURTHERMORE, PROF. MARCINIAK TO KUBLIK: “The Confederation of the Polish Crown has a chance to cross the electoral threshold, but it won't be a double-digit result. The WiN Confederation has a different position. Krzysztof Bosak strongly builds its image.”

-- THE BOND BETWEEN PIS AND ITS VOTERS IS WEAKENING, AND IT IS THE VOTERS WHO WANT TO BE THE FOCUS OF THEIR POLITICAL PARTY - FURTHERMORE, PROF. MARCINIAK TO KUBLIK IN GW: “The bond between the party and its voters is weakening, and it is the voters who want to be the focus of their political party. The image of PiS today is shaped by personal conflicts between politicians, which are no longer hidden but overt. Programmatic issues – that is, what we go to the parliamentary elections with – are not breaking through. Such as the topics from the Program Congress in Katowice 'Thinking Poland'.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32635759,prof-ewa-marciniak-konfederacja-korony-polskiej-jest-dzisiaj.html

-- ON BANASZEK'S EXPLOITATION OF ANTI-UKRAINIAN SENTIMENTS - JACEK BRZUSZKIEWICZ IN A POLITICAL PROFILE OF THE MAYOR OF CHEŁM, MENTIONED AS A POSSIBLE PIS CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER - WRITES IN GW: “Since PiS has no chance of support in the metropolises, the choice had to fall on smaller centers, and one of the three mayors is to become prime minister. And a local KO politician adds: - For almost two years, the idea of building a Volhynian Slaughter Museum in Chełm was put on hold. Now it's unexpectedly returning. This is no coincidence. It is clearly about playing the Ukrainian issue, spreading anti-Ukrainian sentiments, and currying favor with the voters of both Confederations, whose ratings are still not falling.”
https://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,32635487,oddal-tuskowi-7-mln-ma-odzyskac-wyborcow-ktorzy-uciekli-do.html

-- KO WINS, BUT THE RIGHT HOLDS A CLEAR MAJORITY - RZ: “KO wins, but loses power – this is the result of the latest IBRiS poll for 'Rzeczpospolita'. The current ruling coalition does not have a parliamentary majority allowing it to govern. Dr. Jarosław Flis, a sociologist from the Jagiellonian University and an expert on polls, has converted the support into mandates and points out that the Civic Coalition, with 186 mandates, and The Left, with 26, would have no chance of governing, but 'if the PSL crossed the electoral threshold in two years, it would be more than the current 212 votes, especially since Razem cannot be ruled out either.' According to the IBRiS survey, PiS with 131 mandates, Confederation with 74, and Confederation of the Polish Crown with 43 would be able to govern, totaling 248 mandates.”

-- WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR A SECOND NAWROCKI, BECAUSE THESE ARE DIFFERENT ELECTIONS - ADAM BIELAN QUOTED FURTHER IN RZ: “– The parliamentary elections are still 20 months away. We are not looking for a second Nawrocki because parliamentary elections operate under different laws and are much more difficult. PiS, in order to govern or co-govern, does not need 10.5 million votes, but the best possible results in individual constituencies. With the number of votes we received in 2023, when we went into opposition, i.e., over 7 million, with a probably slightly lower turnout, PiS may gain around 40% support in 2027.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art43900831-sondaz-rzeczpospolitej-ko-wygrywa-ale-wyrazna-wiekszosc-ma-prawica

-- THIS GOVERNMENT IS FAILING AT COMMUNICATION. IT HAS BEEN LIKE THIS FROM THE BEGINNING. AND IT DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER THERE IS A GOVERNMENT SPOKESPERSON OR NOT - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “This government is failing at communication. It has been like this from the beginning. And it doesn't matter whether there is a government spokesperson or not. This is even more incomprehensible because the Prime Minister himself can present a problem briefly and concisely, so he knows how important communication is. Meanwhile, communication blunders follow one another. The slogan 'we do, not talk' should be replaced with another, for example, 'we talk about what we are doing.'”

-- EVEN THOSE WHO SUPPORT THE SAFE PROGRAM FEEL FEAR. THEY HAVE EVEN BEEN INFECTED BY PIS'S OBSESSIONS – THIS IS AS MUCH AS 23% OF THOSE SURVEYED. AND TUSK'S CABINET ALLOWED THIS - FURTHERMORE, AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Surveys show that as many as 51% fear that participation in the SAFE program overly alienates Poland from the European Union. It is obvious that opponents of SAFE participation are mainly concerned about Poland's excessive dependence on the EU (95%). But even those who support the SAFE program feel this fear. They have even been infected by PiS's obsessions – this is as much as 23% of those surveyed. And Tusk's cabinet allowed this.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32636294,safe-czyli-dlaczego-rzad-nas-nie-chroni-przed-zakutymi-lbami.html

-- THE NEARLY 11-POINT LEAD WITH WHICH THE DEMOCRATS WON AGAINST NATIONALISTS IN THE 2023 ELECTIONS HAS DROPPED TO PRACTICALLY ZERO AFTER JUST OVER TWO YEARS - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “A comparison of the latest CBOS polls (from November and December 2025 and January 2026) with the results of the 2023 elections indicates a 4 percentage point increase in support for the Civic Coalition and a significant 12 percentage point drop in PiS's ratings. However, at the same time, the nearly 11-point lead with which the democrats won against nationalists in the 2023 elections has dropped to practically zero after just over two years.”

-- NAWROCKI PERFECTLY FITTED INTO THE LIST OF ISSUES POLARIZING POLES, TRZASKOWSKI SPOKE TO EVERYONE, MEANING NO ONE - FURTHERMORE, MACHOWSKI IN GW: “Karol Nawrocki won not because he convinced the majority that he would be more effective in security or healthcare matters, but because he perfectly fit into the list of issues polarizing Poles. And in this way, he very effectively mobilized his potential electorate. Trzaskowski said at every rally that 'security is the most important thing.' He avoided all issues polarizing Poles with a wide berth. In this way, he spoke to everyone, meaning no one. This caused him to fail to build identification and demobilize – especially in large cities – a part of his potential voters. Looking at how the victorious election campaign of the democrats and Donald Tusk looked in 2023 and what issues were prominent in it, one can say that Nawrocki drew the right conclusions from it.”

-- WHAT IS MORE BENEFICIAL: TRZASKOWSKI'S SMOOTH CAMPAIGN AIMED AT EVERYONE IN 2025, OR TUSK'S POLARIZING AND MOBILIZING "HIS OWN" CAMPAIGN FROM 2023 - STILL ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “And they boil down to this: if you are conducting an election campaign in a very, very polarized society, leave aside what unites and focus on what divides. This will allow your voters to build identification and a bond with you. Only in this way will you mobilize them, and thanks to this, you will win. Let the democrats consider what is more beneficial for them: Trzaskowski's smooth campaign aimed at everyone in 2025, or Tusk's polarizing and mobilizing 'his own' campaign from 2023.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32629982,od-czego-zaleza-polityczne-wybory-polakow.html

-- THE FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE ORLEN FOUNDATION AGREED TO SPEND 4.6 MILLION PLN ON A PIS PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN CONDUCTED BY PRZEMYSŁAW CZARNEK'S PEOPLE. SHE IS NOW CHARGED - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “The prosecution has now pressed charges against Katarzyna R. because she accepted the donation settlement and acknowledged that the money was allocated for a different purpose, namely a campaign related to the 4xNO referendum. This was an undertaking inconsistent with the goals of the Orlen Foundation, which is why Katarzyna R. could have refused to settle.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32636469,przekazala-miliony-z-orlenu-na-propagande-pis-teraz-moze-stracic.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Daniel Rotfeld (turning 88), Dorota Gawryluk, Marta Kuligowska, Barbara Bubula, Joanna Sokolińska, Michał Kania, Piotr Markiewicz.
 


Łukasz Mężyk