Photo: Jan Lebenstein's "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse," 1985 -- CIVIC PLATFORM LOSES 7 POINTS IN IBRIS POLL: https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/wielki-spadek-notowan-ko-mamy-najnowszy-sondaz-7173272114260896a -- CBOS STATEMENT ON JUNE GOVERNMENT APPROVAL RATINGS EXPECTED TODAY... -- THE FIRST CRACK IN DONALD TUSK'S DOCTRINE OF INFALLIBILITY WAS MADE BY MARIUSZ JANICKI, IN AN ARTICLE FOR TYGODNIK POLITYKA TWO WEEKS AGO - TUSK'S PARTY OFTEN GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF BEING SLUGGISH, AWKWARD, AND ARROGANT: "After the 2023 elections, it seemed that Civic Platform and Tusk himself understood what new politics entails, but old ailments quickly surfaced: the prime minister's 'disappearance,' the ministers' feeble activity, a lack of political consultations, complete disinterest in public communication and the image of those in power. Tusk's party often gives the impression of being sluggish, awkward, and arrogant. And times have changed. Eight years of PiS rule, besides damaging the democratic system, which may yet be repaired someday, have brought about other, perhaps irreversible, changes. This concerns the very way politics is conducted: the government becomes a permanent election headquarters, and governing is a continuous campaign, waged around the clock using modern tools, primarily in the digital sphere. The information policy of the government and Civic Platform has so far been the antithesis of these methods, and Trzaskowski's campaign was a display of old-fashioned amateurism." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2304345,1,rzad-tuska-potrzebuje-wstrzasu-kaczynski-dostal-butle-z-tlenem-moze-uzyc-metody-na-skorpiona.read -- THREE MORE COMMENTATORS ARE RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT TUSK'S FUTURE: Jażdżewski, Szubartowicz, and Lis. -- A LEADER WHO HAS MASTERED THE GAME TO PERFECTION, A GAME THAT NO LONGER BRINGS VICTORY - LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: "There is a dysfunctional ruling coalition. There is a hostile president. There is a leader who has mastered the game to perfection, a game that no longer brings victory. There is the stirring of the most extreme and unconstructive emotions. Emotions – in the era of social media politics – are the key to victory when managed, not when succumbed to. There are likes that harm." -- BUT IF THERE IS NO PRODUCT, EVEN THE BEST COMMUNICATION WON'T HELP - JAŻDŻEWSKI CONTINUES ON THE RULERS' SITUATION: "But if there is no product, even the best communication won't help. If the polls continue to fall, in a few months, among MPs, an emotion might arise: 'save yourselves if you can,' and an intensification of centrifugal tendencies, playing for oneself, with the hope that the electorate will see and appreciate it. Meanwhile, at this stage, the electorate will have long since waved goodbye in disappointment. Without a new impulse, this coalition faces slow decay, which can only end in electoral defeat." -- ATTEMPTS TO IMITATE AND ADOPT PARTS OF THE OPPOSITION'S MESSAGE, WHERE CREDIBILITY IS LACKING, ONLY STRENGTHEN THE OTHER SIDE - JAŻDŻEWSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: "Extinguishing the emotions of one's own electorate, speaking to the opponent's electorate, attempting to imitate and adopt parts of their message, where credibility is lacking, only strengthens the other side. This does not mean that one cannot adopt others' projects, but they must be incorporated into one's own map of social emotions. Otherwise, you concede to the opponent and gain no points yourself. This is the case, for example, with the CPK (Central Transport Hub); Civic Platform is seemingly doing something, but no one believes them anyway." -- THE MEDIA SALON IS ATTACKING NAWROCKI, AND AT ITS HEAD IS TUSK, GIERTYCH ET CONSORTES, WHICH MEANS THE GUY CAN'T BE THAT BAD AFTER ALL - JAŻDŻEWSKI FURTHER ON THE DOMINANT EMOTION: "Elections are won by attacking elites. Nawrocki won because he was tailor-made for the anti-establishment sentiment of a large part of the electorate that dislikes PiS. But they dislike Tusk and 'Warsaw' even more. 'The media salon is attacking Nawrocki, and at its head is Tusk, Giertych et consortes, which means the guy can't be that bad after all, since he's angered such types.' Show me who attacks you, and I'll tell you who you are. Are you one of us, or an outsider?" https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jakie-trendy-ksztaltuja-polityke,nId,22159861 -- IT IS NOW EVIDENT THAT THIS PLAN HAS FAILED, AND THE CIVIC PLATFORM LEADER HIMSELF HAS FOUND HIMSELF IN A CRITICAL POSITION - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: "But Donald Tusk knows perfectly well that dark clouds have just appeared on the horizon of his power, his leadership, and his party. That the greatest crisis of liberal democracy in Poland in decades, which the prime minister wanted to reactivate in 2023, is approaching. Today, it is evident that this plan has failed, and the Civic Platform leader himself has found himself in a critical position. As has his party." -- TUSK IS ALSO BURDENED BY THE UNCLEAR STATUS OF ROMAN GIERTYCH, WHO MAY BE AN IDOL FOR A FEW PERCENT OF THE HARDEST ELECTORATE - SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES: "Tusk is also burdened by the unclear status of Roman Giertych, who may be an idol for a few percent of the hardest electorate, but the majority shies away from such a style of politics and fears the murky affairs that follow the well-known lawyer. The best proof was the low impact of the action intended to convince Poles that irregularities in the commissions could reverse the election results. Adam Bodnar will count the votes, but probably only to appease those who expected it." -- TUSK BEFORE THE TWILIGHT - TITLE OF SZUBARTOWICZ'S OP-ED: https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-tusk-przed-zmierzchem,nId,22160015 -- FUNERAL - TITLE OF TOMASZ LIS'S ARTICLE. -- TUSK HAS CAPITULATED. THIS IS THE MOST SPECTACULAR WALKOVER SINCE ZALESZCZYKI IN SEPTEMBER '39. WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT WHAT'S NEXT AND WHERE TO GO. FORGET POLITICS - TOMASZ LIS IN HIS NEWSLETTER, WHICH IS REPRINTED BY HIS PORTAL NATEMAT: "Things are bad, but this is just the beginning. July 1st, another act of national humiliation, and August 6th, another. Then, only an expressway to electoral disaster. 10 years of life, struggle, faith, effort, just to give ourselves a chance for normality. 10 years of taking hits, stress. In the end, illness. And everything has been magnificently squandered. Tusk has capitulated. This is the most spectacular walkover since Zaleszczyki in September '39. We need to think about what's next and where to go. Forget politics. There are children, and in some time, probably grandchildren, though I sympathize with both of them for the country they will live in. There is love. Perhaps not primarily for the homeland for now." -- UNLIKE TUSK, I TRULY DON'T KNOW THE WORD 'CAPITULATION' - TOMASZ LIS CONTINUES: "Of course, I will not give up. Unlike Tusk, I truly do not know the word 'capitulation.' And life has tested me exceptionally thoroughly. So I will definitely not give up, but humanly speaking, I simply don't know yet what that means. I need to think longer." https://natemat.pl/blogi/tomaszlis/613187,tomasz-lis-pogrzeb -- FROM AROUND 7 PM, THE CANDIDATE SUPPORTED BY PIS ACTUALLY STARTED TO GAIN EVEN MORE, BECAUSE THEN YOUNG PEOPLE FROM CITIES WENT TO THE POLLS - PAWEŁ PREDKO FROM IPSOS SAYS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MARCIN KOZŁOWSKI IN GAZETA.PL: "Karol Nawrocki had the biggest lead in the second round in the morning, then it started to shrink, and from around 2 PM the result was very close. There was nothing unusual about that. This situation lasted until the end of the survey. However, from around 7 PM, the candidate supported by PiS actually started to gain even more, because then young people from cities, who voted for Sławomir Mentzen in the first round, went to the polls." -- AS EARLY AS 6 PM ON THE DAY OF THE SURVEY, I WARNED OUR CLIENTS THAT THE EXIT POLL RESULT WAS NOT DECISIVE, THAT WE HAD A 50/50 SITUATION - PREDKO FROM IPSOS TELLS KOZŁOWSKI: "In the exit poll, Rafał Trzaskowski received 50.3%, and according to PKW data – 49.11%. If one of the candidates had received, for example, 70% of the support, no one would have paid attention to this one-percentage-point difference between the exit poll and the results. The 50% mark made the matter very medial. Meanwhile, as early as 6 PM on the day of the survey, I warned our clients that the poll result was not decisive, that we had a 50/50 situation." -- PERHAPS IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING BEFORE THE NEXT ELECTIONS WHETHER, IN SUCH TIE SITUATIONS, TO COMPLETELY ABANDON THE PUBLICATION OF EXIT POLLS AND SIMPLY WAIT FOR LATE POLLS - PREDKO FROM IPSOS FURTHER TELLS KOZŁOWSKI IN GAZETA.PL: "Perhaps it is worth considering before the next elections whether, in such tie situations, to completely abandon the publication of exit polls and simply wait for late polls. Viewers would then receive only a brief announcement at 9 PM that the result is not decisive, without providing specific numbers." https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,32067271,ekspert-z-ipsos-zdradza-co-dzialo-sie-w-dniu-wyborow-kluczowa.html -- THE CONTROVERSY OVER THE ELECTION VALIDITY WILL HARM THE DEMOCRATIC COALITION - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: "Donald Tusk has no control over this. Nor does he present a plan of action for the next two years, which would be extremely difficult even if Hołownia didn't stubbornly cling to the position of Sejm Marshal and Pełczyńska-Nałęcz didn't dream of the Deputy Prime Minister position. There's no need to mention external threats, but domestic matters are also in a bad state – state finances are stretched to the breaking point, there's no money for salary increases for the healthcare service, and teachers are revolting. The majority of voters have the impression that the ruling politicians are preoccupied with themselves, which means the ruling coalition has found itself on a slippery slope." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32064394,awantura-o-waznosc-wyborow-zaszkodzi-koalicji-demokratycznej.html -- THE ABSURDITY AND EMBARRASSMENT ARE DEEPENED BY THE FACT THAT THE RECOUNTING OF VOTES IN THE 296 COMMISSIONS SELECTED BY THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE HAS AN EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWING TRZASKOWSKI'S VICTORY - EWA SIEDLECKA ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: "The absurdity and embarrassment are deepened by the fact that the recounting of votes in the 296 commissions selected by the prosecutor's office has an extremely small chance of showing Trzaskowski's victory over Nawrocki, so the entire 'who's first' competition is solely about ambitions and playing 'mine is better.'" -- BUT WHAT IF PROSECUTORS DROP OTHER INVESTIGATIONS AND START COUNTING VOTES? AND HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE? AFTER ALL, THERE ARE NOT THAT MANY OF THEM - SIEDLECKA CONTINUES: "But what if prosecutors drop other investigations and start counting votes? And how long will it take? After all, there are not that many of them. Moreover, it's easy to imagine what PiS politicians and Karol Nawrocki's voters will say: here come the 'Bodnarites' to 'fudge' the election results. National Prosecutor Dariusz Korneluk told 'Polityka' that he will recommend to prosecutors that, as with the courts to which the vote counting was entrusted by IKN in connection with election protests – prosecutors entrust the counting to 'appointed persons.' However, the impartiality of 'appointed persons' by prosecutors can also be questioned. So, in the end, it would probably be best if PiS and Civic Platform's plenipotentiaries did it together, and even then, under camera surveillance." -- THAT WOULD BE A COUP D'ÉTAT - SIEDLECKA'S CONCLUSION: "If the prosecutor's office cannot keep up with the counting, pressure will mount on the Sejm Marshal not to convene the National Assembly. And it will be truly dangerous. A situation where the Sejm Marshal postpones the swearing-in of the new president after the predecessor's term expires, despite the lack of a ruling on the election's invalidity, especially when he himself would benefit from this situation, as he would temporarily assume the role of president, would be a coup d'état." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2306071,1,wyscig-o-kontrole-wyborow-adam-bodnar-kontra-neosedziowie-z-ikn-obysmy-sie-nie-przeliczyli.read -- EXACTLY 3 MONTHS AGO, THE REACTOR CEASED OPERATION BECAUSE ITS NUCLEAR SUPERVISION PERMIT EXPIRED, AND IT DID NOT MANAGE TO OBTAIN A NEW ONE - JAKUB WIECH: "First, it was supposed to return to operation on May 9th. It did not. Then, it was supposed to return to operation by the end of June. It did not. Now, it is supposed to return to operation in July. Will it return? Many indications point to yes, but for 1/3 of the year, our only reactor will be inactive due to NCBJ's problems with filing the permit application." https://x.com/jakubwiech/status/1939612029259554918 -- ARKADIUSZ MUSIA'S CIRCLE, ONE OF THE RICHEST POLES, IS THINKING ABOUT A NEW LIBERAL PARTY - MICHAŁ KOLANKO WRITES IN RZ: "What frustrates business? The list is very long, and the source of disappointment is the government's inertia. – It was supposed to be a breakthrough year, and it's the usual: lots of declarations, lots of announcements, and at the end of the day, the bureaucratic lobby in the ministries wins anyway – business hears from 'Rzeczpospolita.' The answer to these frustrations is supposed to be a new party, which Arkadiusz Musia's circle is considering." https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42615831-powstanie-nowa-partia-konfederacja-w-wersji-light-poznalismy-kulisy-inicjatywy-biznesu -- THE CAPACITY FEE IS RETURNING. ELECTRICITY BILLS WILL RISE - MONEY.PL: "From July 1, 2025, households will again pay the capacity fee, which was suspended in the first half of the year as part of energy support measures. The fees, dependent on energy consumption, will range from PLN 2.86 to PLN 16.01 per month, meaning an average bill increase of 5.7%." https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/od-jutra-wraca-oplata-mocowa-rachunki-za-prad-w-gore-7173320484416416a.html -- THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ETS2 RULES PLANNED FOR 2027 MAY LEAD TO THE RUIN OF 4.5 MILLION POLES. WARSAW, ALONG WITH 14 OTHER EU CAPITALS, IS DEMANDING PROTECTIVE MEASURES FROM BRUSSELS - MAREK RABIJ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "The entry into force of ETS2 rules without additional support would mean that the worst-off would pay more for energy than those who can afford photovoltaic installations or electric cars, as the latter's bills would not be burdened to such a significant extent by CO2 emission charges. This would trap at least 4.5 million residents of Poland in a cycle of high electricity and heating bills for years." https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/podwojne-ceny-energii-nie-stac-cie-zaplacisz-wiecej-191127 -- SZYDŁO: TUSK SAID THE MIGRATION PACT WOULD NOT APPLY TO POLAND. TODAY, IT IS EVIDENT THAT THESE WERE WORDS CAST TO THE WIND - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/01/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Seweryński, Krzysztof Szubert, Szymon Ziółkowski.