Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Kalukin: Both Confederation parties are undermining PiS more than the LPR used to. Wipler: Confederation's strategic choice to keep all options open until the end.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- FISCAL COUNCIL CRITICIZES GOVERNMENT PACKAGE ON FUEL PRICE REDUCTIONS - LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN GW: "The CPN package is an ad hoc, costly, and improperly targeted action. It does not address the causes of rising fuel prices, while increasing risks to public finance stability and weakening budget policy predictability," wrote the Fiscal Council. "Currently, costs of approximately PLN 1.25 billion are certain (a full month of lower VAT and half a month of lower excise duty). Each month the changes are in effect increases the deficit of the general government sector by about 0.04% of GDP," reads the RF's statement.
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,32702342,rada-fiskalna-krytykuje-rzadowy-pakiet-o-obnizce-cen-paliwa.html

-- POLAND'S FATAL SITUATION, DEFICIT HAS CROSSED ANOTHER BARRIER, DEBT IS GROWING - GAZETA.PL HEADLINE: "Piotr Kuczyński, a financial markets analyst at the Xelion investment firm, recalled in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl that Polish statistics (state public debt, PDP) differ from EU statistics (general government debt, EDP) because they do not include the enormous debt taken on by funds from Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego. Thanks to this, the PDP debt is lower than the constitutional limit. We are avoiding violating the Constitution, but in effect, the debt is growing exponentially," explains the expert.
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,32700407,deficyt-przekroczyl-kolejna-bariere-dlug-rosnie-lawinowo.html

-- THE SYSTEM IS COLLAPSING, PATIENTS ARE DYING. THIS CAN NO LONGER BE HIDDEN - PATRYK SŁOWIK ON PORTAL ZERO: "There isn't a month that goes by without us learning of a new government healthcare austerity plan. There isn't a week that passes without the media reporting on more hospital wards being closed. Finally, there isn't a day that patients don't die waiting in queues for a doctor. And there isn't an hour that the authorities don't show contempt for ordinary people without 'connections' to the government hospital of the Ministry of Interior and Administration, or mock 'villagers' treated in some Krotoszyn instead of in great Warsaw."

-- IT IS WORTH CALLING THINGS BY THEIR NAME. THE FACT THAT DONALD TUSK DECIDED TO SAVE ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM RESULTS IN THE DEATHS OF POLES - PATRYK SŁOWIK CONTINUES: "It is worth calling things by their name. The fact that Donald Tusk decided to save on the healthcare system results in the deaths of Poles. The fact that the 'expert' Health Minister Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda specializes in recording videos for social media, rather than fighting for money for people's treatment, results in the deaths of Poles. The fact that the interchangeable president of the National Health Fund, Filip Nowak, is a spokesperson for the ruling politicians, rather than for patients, results in the deaths of Poles."
https://zero.pl/news/kryzys-sluzby-zdrowia-w-polsce-2026-brak-pieniedzy-i-zamykane-oddzialy

-- KIERWIŃSKI ON THE POSSIBLE ENTRY OF POLICE OR PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL: I CAN IMAGINE SUCH A SCENARIO, KIERWIŃSKI ON THE SWEARING-IN OF JUDGES TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL: THERE IS A SCENARIO THAT IS WRITTEN, PREPARED AND WILL BE ACTIVATED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- PRESIDENT NAWROCKI DECIDED TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE REGARDING JUDGES ELECTED TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL, AND IMPOSE THE RULES OF THE GAME - EWA SIEDLECKA ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: "President Nawrocki has decided to take the initiative regarding judges elected to the Constitutional Tribunal and impose the rules of the game. (...) By taking the initiative regarding the swearing-in of judges, the President has passed the hot potato onto the Coalition's court. He likely hopes that if the Coalition organizes the swearing-in of four judges in the Sejm now, it will be possible to build a 'narrative' that the ruling party has caused them to resign from their offices. Although this is convoluted and misleading, it may be credible to a part of the public opinion. Especially since it will be served to the public along with real accusations of the parliamentary majority unlawfully withholding the filling of vacancies in the Tribunal."
https://blog.polityka.pl/siedlecka/2026/04/01/tk-prezydent-w-natarciu/

-- UNOFFICIALLY, THE PALACE HAS STARTED ITS OWN GAME FOR THE TRIBUNAL, IN WHICH THE MAIN FIGURE IS THE HEAD OF THE CHANCELLERY, LAWYER ZBIGNIEW BOGUCKI, PiS DID NOT KNOW THE DETAILS - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: "As we have unofficially heard, the Palace has started its own game for the Tribunal, in which the main figure is the Head of the Chancellery, lawyer Zbigniew Bogucki. - Even in PiS, we did not know the detailed plans. Only that there is some idea, difficult to implement and planned for many weeks," says a politician from Jarosław Kaczyński's party.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32701428,prezydent-wybral-sobie-sedziow-do-tk-pis-nawet-my-nie-znalezmy.html

-- WE WANT TO SEND BOTH KACZYŃSKI AND TUSK INTO RETIREMENT IN A FEW MONTHS SO THAT NEITHER OF THEM CONSTRUCTS A GOVERNMENT, IT IS OUR STRATEGIC CHOICE TO LEAVE ALL OPTIONS OPEN UNTIL THE END - PRZEMYSŁAW WIPLER IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: "We want to send both Kaczyński and Tusk into retirement in a few months so that neither of them constructs a government. This is the first condition. It is clear that with each day of a government that introduces maximum prices, tries to introduce new taxes, new public levies, accompanied by more and more scandals, it is increasingly difficult to plan for the next four years with a government that has just been in power. What heavily burdens the current government are the poor relations with the President. One cannot change Poland, one cannot reform Poland, one cannot look for savings in a situation where the President can veto all of this. And he vetoes, among other things, because he is treated very aggressively and very poorly by the current majority. But this does not change our strategic choice to leave all options open until the end."

-- IN KONFEDERACJA, WE HAVE LEARNED TO GET ALONG. EVEN WHEN WE HAVE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG OURSELVES, WE DO NOT SHOCK VOTERS WITH THEM. WE HAVE AWARENESS THAT WE DON'T HAVE TO LIKE EACH OTHER, BUT WE HAVE A COMMON INTEREST - WIPLER CONTINUES WITH BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: "In Konfederacja, we have learned to get along. Even when we have disagreements among ourselves, we do not shock voters with them. We have an awareness that we don't have to like each other, but we have a common interest. And the wisdom of my colleagues, such as Marshal Bosak, lies in the fact that he remembers what a coalition with Law and Justice looks like and what can happen when one is in such a coalition. Sławomir Mentzen says the same, recalling what happened to Andrzej Lepper, Roman Giertych, Jarosław Gowin, Zbigniew Ziobro."

-- THE PRESIDENT WILL BE THE FIRST TO PAY THE PRICE IF A RIGHT-WING COALITION WERE TO FORM, ONE THAT GOVERNS POORLY, IS DISUNITED, AND CONSTANTLY SABOTAGES EACH OTHER - WIPLER CONTINUES IN RZ: "The person who has and will have a very significant influence on how the government is formed is the President. And he will be the first to pay the price if a right-wing coalition were to form, one that governs poorly, is disunited, and constantly sabotages each other, because the next important elections, which will come very, very quickly, two and a half years after the parliamentary elections, are the presidential elections. And if there were a weak, disunited right-wing government that does not satisfy the vital interests of the citizens, it is a government that will sink him. The election calendar is quite unforgiving."
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art44085041-przemyslaw-wipler-slaby-prawicowy-rzad-po-wyborach-moze-utopic-karola-nawrockiego

-- PEKAO'S CEO DEFENDED BY FINANCIAL RESULTS - BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI ON NEW APPOINTMENTS IN COMPANIES - WRITES IN BUSINESS INSIDER: "Currently, one of the most experienced bankers in Poland, Cezary Stypułkowski, heads Bank Pekao. Additionally, the financial results defend the CEOs of PZU and Bank Pekao, although the insurer has to rebuild its position in some market segments."

-- FĄFARA AT ORLEN WITH PSL SUPPORT - GODUSŁAWSKI CONTINUES: "He has support from the PSL, particularly from the Płock MP and Deputy Speaker of the Sejm, Piotr Zgorzelski," emphasizes our source close to Orlen. Piotr Zgorzelski is considered the main personnel man among the Peasants and strongly supports the CEO of Orlen. According to our sources, Ireneusz Fąfara has also built solid relationships with another influential player in the PSL, namely the Minister of Energy, Miłosz Motyka. PSL politicians we have spoken with in recent weeks state that no change should be expected in the position of head of the largest State Treasury company."
https://www.onet.pl/biznes/businessinsider/orlen-pzu-i-bank-pekao-wkrotce-zmiany-w-zarzadach-panstwowych-gigantow/fsy4h35,211f4564

-- TUSK MADE A TERRIBLE MISTAKE THEN BY ALLOWING HIS PEOPLE TO ATTACK WŁODZIMIERZ CIMOSZEWICZ WITH A DIRTY INTRIGUE - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN AN ARTICLE ANALYZING 25 YEARS OF PiS - IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "One can, moreover, extend this story much further. After all, the PO-PiS coalition announced for the next term did not have to fall apart after the double elections in 2005. Tusk made a terrible mistake then by allowing his people to attack Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz with a dirty intrigue. Because when the SLD candidate was prematurely eliminated from the presidential race as a result, only he and Lech Kaczyński remained in the running, which motivated the latter to unleash cannons against Tusk's 'liberal Poland' and seek the support of populists. The lasting division was dug, even though PO and PiS had more in common then, and a significant part of their supporters did not make much difference which of the candidates ultimately won."

-- EVERY SUBSEQUENT SHIFT OF PiS TOWARDS RIGHT-WING POPULISM WAS TACTICAL AT FIRST, BECAUSE THEY NEEDED TO FIND SOME ADDITIONAL VOTES - KALUKIN CONTINUES IN AN ARTICLE ON THE HISTORICAL FATES OF PiS: "Of course, after years, this division has become fundamental. However, it did not stem from the original identities, which only emerged as a justification for the superstructure conflict. And this applies to Kaczyński to a much greater extent, because Tusk, despite all his disguises, remained true to a general liberal and European identity. PiS's evolution was much deeper. Every subsequent shift towards right-wing populism was tactical at first, because they needed to find some additional votes, to solidify the electorate."

-- BOTH KONFEDERACJA PARTIES ARE WEAKENING PiS NOW TO A MUCH GREATER EXTENT THAN THE LPR DID FORMERLY - KALUKIN AGAIN: "Kaczyński never feared Russia, only right-wing competition. And unfortunately, it so happens that both Konfederacja parties are now weakening PiS to a much greater extent than the LPR did formerly. And this is unlikely to change, so one should not expect Kaczyński to ever soften, even tactically. If it weren't for a coincidence from a quarter of a century ago, the then centrist politician Jarosław Kaczyński would have had to find his place in the war of some other Tusk against another Kaczyński."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2337367,1,pis-ma-25-lat-jak-do-tego-doszlo-na-miano-drugiego-ojca-chrzestnego-zasluguje-donald-tusk.read

-- BIRTHDAYS: Agata Kornhauser-Duda, Krzysztof Skórzyński, Krzysztof Skowroński, Roman Młodkowski.
 


Łukasz Mężyk