Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Balczun on announcing local content strategy after Easter, Czarzasty for GW: Poland will not be a "unsinkable aircraft carrier" for the USA

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER Hanna Suchocka turns 80 today.

-- WHO GOVERNS US – CONVERSATION WITH PRIME MINISTER HANNA SUCHOCKA ON WIRTUALNA POLSKA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL0RSDcQzFQ

-- 45 YEARS AGO the first issue of “Tygodnik Solidarność” was published
https://www.tysol.pl/a5962-3-kwietnia-1981-roku-ukazal-sie-pierwszy-numer-Tygodnika-Solidarnosc

-- DWORCZYK ON THE SITUATION OF MORAWIECKI'S COLLEAGUES IN THE PARTY: I DO NOT FEEL REPRESSED - 300LIVEhttps://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- WE PLAN TO ANNOUNCE THE DEFINITION OF LOCAL CONTENT THE WEEK AFTER EASTER. IN ONE OF THE INDUSTRIAL PLANTS IN POLAND – SAYS MINISTER OF STATE TREASURY ASSETS WOJCIECH BALCZUN – TO SONIA SOBCZYK-GRYGIEL AND BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER POLSKA: “It will cover the definition of local content prepared by MAP, which will not, however, be a formal change in the law. Another element will be KPIs (Key Performance Indicators), i.e., indicators that will measure the degree of achievement of this goal by State Treasury companies. In addition, a methodology for calculating local content will also be defined, which will involve companies submitting reports to GUS – lists the head of MAP. – These actions will certainly have an impact on the market and the practices used on it, but above all, we want to provide an impulse for a change in thinking, a change in mentality. In the countries of so-called old Europe, it is obvious that domestic suppliers are prioritized. At the same time, local content is not enshrined in law in any EU country, although it is, for example, in the United Kingdom – explains Wojciech Balczun”.
https://businessinsider.com.pl/biznes/wojciech-balczun-ujawnia-szczegoly-pakietu-local-content-nowy-termin-ogloszenia/p0rywy8

-- POLAND WILL NOT BE AMERICA'S FORWARD GARRISON OR THE USA'S "UNSINKABLE AIRCRAFT CARRIER" – WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY IN AN ARTICLE FOR GW: “Some in Poland are counting on this process bypassing our country – that Americans will reduce their presence in Europe, but not in Poland. This is wishful thinking, and magical realism works well in literature, but not in security policy. Poland will not be America's forward garrison or the USA's 'unsinkable aircraft carrier'. We must ask ourselves the question whether we want to be someone's aircraft carrier or someone's base. I answer – I don't want to, and I am betting on European sovereignty.”

-- MENTALLY, UKRAINE IS ALREADY IN A UNITED EUROPE. I WILL DO EVERYTHING TO ENSURE IT FORMALLY JOINS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, BECAUSE IT DESERVES IT – CZARZASTY FURTHER IN GW: “It is impossible to talk about Poland's security without Ukraine. Ukrainians are also fighting for our security. I saw it with my own eyes during a visit to Kyiv for the fourth anniversary of the full-scale war. When I spoke before the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine that day, I was immensely impressed that almost all Ukrainian deputies had European navy-blue and gold flags on their desks. This is an important reminder: the Union equals security. Mentally, Ukraine is already in a united Europe. I will do everything to ensure it formally joins as soon as possible, because it deserves it.”

-- IF PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S EFFORTS LEAD TO A JUST PEACE FOR UKRAINE, IN MY OPINION, HE WILL DESERVE A NOBEL PEACE PRIZE – CZARZASTY STILL IN AN ARTICLE FOR GW: “Our enemy is in the east, not in the west. Russia is a mortal enemy, the West is an ally. Therefore, we must support Ukraine in its struggle, while hoping for a just peace. If President Donald Trump's efforts are successful and lead to a just peace for Ukraine, in my opinion, he will deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. I think everyone in Poland would wish for such a turn of events. An independent, strong, and democratic Ukraine remains one of the key guarantors of Poland's independence.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32696373,czarzasty-dla-wyborczej-niektorzy-mysla-ze-proces-zapowiadany.html

-- IF MPs, AND IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS MINISTERS, HAVE GRANTED THEMSELVES THE RIGHT TO ASSESS THE (NON)CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE TRIBUNAL'S COMPOSITION, THEN THE PRESIDENT CAN GRANT HIMSELF THE RIGHT TO ASSESS THE PROPRIETY OR FLAW IN THE ELECTION OF THE TRIBUNAL'S JUDGES – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “If MPs, and in certain situations ministers, have granted themselves the right to assess the (non)constitutionality of the Tribunal's composition, then the president can grant himself the right to assess the propriety or flaw in the election of the Tribunal's judges. He did not start this bidding. Moreover, this right belongs to him more, as he is named its 'guardian' in the constitution.”

-- THE THESIS THAT EVERYTHING HAPPENED CORRECTLY IS TYPICAL PROPAGANDA FROM THOSE IN POWER. PICKED UP BY MEDIA CLOSE TO THIS POWER OR OBLIGING LAWYERS – ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: “A ruling from the Constitutional Tribunal from the end of 2015 was dug up, which defines the president as merely an executor of parliament's will regarding the oath. But even in this text, adopted by the liberal-left majority of President Andrzej Rzepliński, it is mentioned that in exceptional situations, the president can refuse such an act. Although the principle of electing a judge 30 days before the end of his predecessor's term is only written in the Sejm's regulations. But the thesis that everything happened correctly is typical propaganda from those in power. Picked up by media close to this power or obliging lawyers, but greatly stretched.”

-- IN TOTAL, BOTH SIDES MANIPULATED THE TK'S COMPOSITION, BUT THE CURRENT MAJORITY CHOSE THE SCENARIO OF ULTIMATE IGNORANCE OF ANY LEGAL LOGIC – ZAREMBA FURTHER: “In total, both sides manipulated the TK's composition, but the current majority chose the scenario of ultimate ignorance of any legal logic. Well, in the role of opposition, it will not benefit from this. Unless it wins the next elections. The latest IBRIS poll shows, after PSL achieved the five percent threshold, a perfect balance between the sides.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-racja-kontra-sila-to-koniec-trybunalu-konstytucyjnego,nId,23322333

-- FOLLOWING THE FEBRUARY POLL SHOCK FOR PIS, WHICH BENEFITED BOTH CONFEDERATIONS, KACZYŃSKI REGAINED HALF OF HIS LOSSES IN MARCH BY FEEDING ON BRAUN'S KKP – THESE ARE THE CONCLUSIONS FROM EIGHT IBRIS POLLS IN 2026 – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS.

-- THE ELECTORAL PROGNOSIS FOR PIS TODAY, "AFTER CZARNEK" IS 25.8 PERCENT, WHICH MEANS A REBOUND AFTER THE FEBRUARY LOW OF 23.9 PERCENT – PACEWICZ FURTHER: “As can be seen, in two January polls, PiS reached 27 percent. In the next three at the turn of January and February and in February, Kaczyński's party dropped to 22.7 percent, but in March it rose to an average of 24.5 percent. The electoral prognosis for PiS today, 'after Czarnka' is 25.8 percent, which means a rebound after the February low of 23.9 percent (i.e., 11.5 percentage points less than in the 2023 elections). Now the loss is around 9.9 percentage points.”

-- THE RIGHT-WING LOSS WAS OVER 11 PERCENTAGE POINTS. TODAY WE HAVE A POLL DRAW INDICATING THE RIGHT-WING – PIOTR PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: “This means a fundamental change in the balance of power compared to the 2023 elections, in which the liberal-left forces together gathered as much as 53.71 percent, and PiS with Konfederacja (then united) only 42.54 percent. The right-wing loss was over 11 percentage points. Today, we have a poll draw indicating the right-wing. To justify the liberal-left forces, it must be added that in the 2023 elections, the Razem Party ran as part of the left-wing coalition, and today its ratings (in IBRiS polls around 3-4 percent; according to the average of all polls – 3.2 percent) do not add up to the anti-right-wing bloc.”

-- TUSK HAS HIT A (HIGH) CEILING, AND NEITHER THE GOVERNMENT'S SUCCESSES NOR THE OPPOSITION'S FAILURES ALLOW HIM TO BREAK THROUGH IT – PACEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “Not only has the ruling coalition lost its enormous advantage, but PSL only sporadically reaches the 5 percent electoral threshold: according to IBRiS, it is supported by about 4 percent (from 3.7 to 5.4 percent), and according to the average of all polls, even less – 3.1 percent. Polska 2050 is scraping the bottom of the polls. This means that only votes for KO and Lewica translate into mandates. KO's support fluctuates slightly from 30.1 to 32.4, indicating that Donald Tusk has hit a (high) ceiling and neither the government's successes nor the opposition's failures allow him to break through it. In none of the electoral forecasts based on eight IBRiS polls would the potential KO + Lewica coalition partners gain even 220 seats, although in each of them KO would have the largest club, even 190 members. So, like PiS, which won 194 seats in the 2023 elections.”
https://oko.press/czarnek-podgryza-brauna-mentzen-bimba-szanse-liberalow

-- ON EASTER SUNDAY, IT WILL BE 37 YEARS SINCE THE ROUND TABLE AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Prime Minister Hanna Suchocka, Ewa Draus. SUNDAY: Teresa Bogucka, Marcin Krupa, Tomasz Lejman, Edyta Mydłowska-Krawcewicz, Magda Dobrzańska-Frasyniuk.

 


Łukasz Mężyk