state of play: 06/27/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Pacewicz's Analysis: "With a High Degree of Certainty, We Can State the Election Result is Correct," Onet: "No Chance of Changing the Election Outcome," Danielewski: WTF: The Great Forgery Theory
-- "IF IT COSTS ME MY SEAT, I DON'T CARE, I WILL SPEAK THE TRUTH." PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ ON NAWROCKI'S VICTORY - 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/06/27/
-- THIS FUNDAMENTAL TEXT BY PIOTR PACEWICZ SHOULD END MR. KONEK'S CAREER OF ANALYSIS, STOP ADAM BODNAR FROM FURTHER SELF-COMPROMISE - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI: “This fundamental text by Piotr Pacewicz should end Mr. Kontek's career of analysis, stop Adam Bodnar from further self-compromise, and put an end to the Great Forgery Theory (WTF). But for some, the conspiracy space has become so comfortable that it won't end.”
https://x.com/synczeslawa/status/1938290717622722712
-- THE CAREER OF KRZYSZTOF KONEK'S ANALYSIS IS STRANGE IN THAT HE COMPLETELY IGNORES LOCAL ANOMALIES FAVORING TRZASKOWSKI - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “Allegedly, the omission of calculations of anomalies favorable to Trzaskowski was due to haste, 'because counting the other way is a slightly different program.' Kontek explained on TVN24 that as a researcher, he has the right to choose his approach. The point is that the chosen 'approach' inherently falsifies reality, which is significant because Kontek has filed an election protest with the Supreme Court based on his calculations, appointing attorney Jacek Dubois as his representative. This means he is using them as an argument to question the voting results, and perhaps even the elections themselves. Moreover, Adam Bodnar is doing the same, adopting Kontek's absurd viewpoint that local anomalies favoring Trzaskowski can be ignored.”
-- HE ISN'T INTERESTED IN CASES OF ANOMALIES FAVORING TRZASKOWSKI – PACEWICZ FURTHER ON KONEK'S LEGENDARY ANALYSIS: “We don't know how Kontek's grouping in the Lesko county turned out, but it is highly probable that it would have pointed to the polling station in Cisna and/or Wetlina as an anomaly, meaning Kontek could have challenged it in the Supreme Court as a potential forgery. However, we know he did not do this, because he is not interested in cases of anomalies favoring Trzaskowski.”
-- NAWROCKI WAS ALSO WRONGED, WHICH NO ONE CARES ABOUT – PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: “While searching for election fraud, we focus on the wrongs done to Trzaskowski, and it is mainly, if not exclusively, his voters who file complaints. Meanwhile, Nawrocki also received a worse result in 113 polling stations compared to the first round. Here, most of them are small polling stations in healthcare and care facilities, but there were seven cases where the loss from one round to the next was 10 votes or more.”
-- WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY, WE CAN STATE THAT THE ELECTION RESULT IS CORRECT, ALTHOUGH THE VOTING RESULT IS CERTAINLY ERRONEOUS TO A RATHER SMALL DEGREE – PACEWICZ'S CONCLUSION IN OKO.
https://oko.press/wybory-sfalszowane-anomalie-lokalne-jako-ostateczny-argument-sprawdzamy-tez-inne-analizy
-- SUBSEQUENT THEORIES CONTAIN GLARING ERRORS. THERE IS NO CHANCE OF CHANGING THE ELECTION OUTCOME – MICHAŁ ROGALSKI IN ONET: “However, subsequent theories and mathematical models are multiplying, which are supposed to show the enormous scale of errors. Most of them contain glaring methodological errors, often omit errors in favor of Rafał Trzaskowski, or the method used is simply not applicable when comparing polling stations. There is no chance of changing the election outcome. The current balance after recounting almost all the most questionable polling stations is just over 2,000 votes in favor of Trzaskowski. To change the result, it would be necessary to 'reverse' 183,000 votes.”
-- IF THIS METHOD WERE APPLIED CORRECTLY, THE MODEL INDEED INDICATES DEVIATION FROM THE RESULT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS, BUT IN FAVOR OF KAROL NAWROCKI – ROGALSKI FURTHER IN ONET: “In recent days, Dr. Krzysztof Kontek's analysis, which looks for anomalies by grouping nearby polling stations, has been particularly prominent. Its key flaw is the deliberate ignorance of errors detrimental to Karol Nawrocki, which, as the author wrote, 'aims to avoid artificially inflating his support.' Because it turns out that if this method were applied correctly, the model indeed indicates a deviation from the result in both directions, but in favor of Karol Nawrocki, further increasing his lead.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kolejne-teorie-i-razace-bledy-nie-ma-szans-na-zmiane-wyniku-wyborow-analiza/hzgt1lh,79cfc278
-- TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN PROTEST LACKED KEY DATA – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The protest filed by Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign mentions 800 polling stations with statistical anomalies, but the campaign – excluding these thirteen cases – does not provide a list of polling stations with numbers and locations. This is a necessary condition for the Supreme Court to order a recount of votes in other specific locations as well.”
-- IF THE SUPREME COURT DOES NOT ORDER A RECOUNT IN MORE CASES, PROSECUTORS WILL DO THIS WORK – WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “The effect will be that the conviction in society will deepen that the electoral process is not reliable. And yet, Giertych himself, who most loudly suggested mass fraud and appealed for a recount of all votes, has changed his demand – to investigate a certain sample of polling stations. In other words, there is room for a rational approach to the problem between what Zandberg and PiS are saying and what Giertych originally proclaimed.”
-- THERE ARE NO HARD PROOFS AT THIS MOMENT THAT THE WINNER IS DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE INDICATED IN THE PKW ANNOUNCEMENT – WIELOWIEYSKA STILL IN GW: “Regardless of whether someone considers the Chamber of Control to be a legal court or not, such a scenario must not be pursued. The Marshal of the Sejm does not have the authority to assess whether the election result is valid or not. There are no hard proofs at this moment that the winner is different from the one indicated in the PKW announcement. Hołownia has no choice but to accept the presumption of election validity. Tusk, however, clearly wants to indicate who takes responsibility for this decision.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32056697,wielowieyska-w-protescie-sztabu-trzaskowskiego-zabraklo-kluczowych.html
-- THE PRESIDENT AND THE "NEO-PRESIDENT"? LET'S NOT GO DOWN THAT ROAD – KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Stirring suspicion about the fairness of the elections was easy because many of Rafał Trzaskowski's voters find it difficult to come to terms with the fact that someone like Karol Nawrocki – burdened with scandals, and culturally and morally alien to them – defeated him. The hope that he didn't win at all might bring them relief. However, the consequences of stirring this suspicion will stay with us for a long time. If it discourages those who now feel cheated from voting, it will turn out to be in the interest not of those who wanted to weaken the position of the president nominated by PiS.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/06/26/skrzydlowska-kalukin-prezydent-i-neoprezydent-nie-idzmy-ta-droga/
-- FEARS OF REVEALING UNFAVORABLE DETAILS OF THE POLNORD INVESTIGATION FOR THE AUTHORITIES WERE THE REASON FOR THE PEGASUS COMMITTEE'S RESIGNATION FROM QUESTIONING GIERTYCH – MACIEJ ZUBEL IN WP: “The prosecutor's office discontinued the investigation into Polnord regarding Roman Giertych. Prosecutor Sylwia Chamerska, who was subsequently recalled from her delegation to the National Prosecutor's Office, objected to the decision. Fears of revealing details of the Polnord investigation unfavorable to the authorities were reportedly the reason for the Pegasus committee's resignation from questioning Giertych. Meanwhile, the attorney argues that the presidential elections may have been rigged.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/umorzenie-sledztwa-ws-giertycha-co-wiemy-7171840597613440a
-- BIRTHDAYS: Władysław Ortyl, Krzysztof Hetman, Gabriela Masłowska, Andrzej Kraszewski, Andrzej Jaeschke, Janina Okrągły, Grzegorz Janik.
live
4 hours
12 min
Müller Denies Morawiecki as Prime Minister Could Have Known About CPK Land Plot
18 min
„Receipts on the table. So far, I haven’t seen a document signed by Telus.” — Müller to the Prime Minister and Government Spokesperson
3 hours
Nawrocki Meets with Fico
3 hours
„The Conclusions Will Be Used in the President’s Chancellery’s Work.” — Szefernaker on Today’s Expert Meeting
4 hours
„There Was a Betrayal.” — Sasin on ETS2
7 hours
„He Wasn't in the Document Workflow.” — Śliwka on Telus and the Results of Parliamentary Oversight
7 hours
"Putin-esque Mannerisms": Błaszczak on Tusk's Behavior
7 hours
President Proposed Poland Serve as a Hub for US Gas Supplies to Slovakia
8 hours
„We Will Reclaim the Plot of Land, It Will Be Possible to Buy It Back.” — Krajewski Announces Agreement
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: PiS Suffers Spectacular Setback, Baranowska: PiS Lacks a Plan to Exit Defensive Stance, Janicki: Has Tusk's Camp's Depression Passed? The Game is Back On
state of play
today
State of Play: GW and RMF on Cancelled Surgeries, Helsinki Foundation on Żurek's Project: Little in Common with Rule of Law, Szułdrzyński: Konfederacja Benefits from "PiS-PO One Evil"
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Prof. Flis on Gruszczyński: The Beneficiaries of Reckonings Aren't the Government, but Braun and Konfederacja. Duma: Campaign Themes No Longer Resonate, Res Futura: 58% Online Support Rymanowski
state of play
11/03/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: What if Braun's party gets 20% in the 2027 elections? Szczęśniak/Sitnicka: Have the ghosts of the past caught up with PiS? Skrzydłowska: Ziobro like Le Pen?
state of play
10/31/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Politico on the New Wave of Ukrainian Refugees in Poland and Germany, Machowski: Many Coalition Lists Will Hand Power to the Right
state of play
10/30/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: Speculation about a potential prime ministerial change can be put down to fairy tales, Majmurek: The Platform showed its worst side… and PiS wasn’t any better
state of play
10/29/2025