state of play: 04/23/2025
— GUS REPORTS STORE SALES DATA. WORSE THAN FORECASTS – ERYK KIELAK IN GAZETA.PL: “On Wednesday (April 23), GUS released the latest data on store sales in March. The index fell by 0.3% year-on-year and by 14.3% month-on-month. This result diverges from forecasts, which predicted increases of 0.03% and 14.8% respectively. It's worth recalling that retail sales at constant prices in February decreased by 0.5% year-on-year and by 6% month-on-month.”
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,31876185,gus-podal-dane-ze-sklepow.html
— PERCENTAGE OF INCUMBENT CABINET SUPPORTERS DOWN BY 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS, OPPONENTS' PERCENTAGE ROSE BY THE SAME AMOUNT, 50% ARE OPPONENTS – NEW MONTHLY CBOS SURVEY: “Compared to March, the percentage of supporters of the incumbent cabinet has decreased by 2 percentage points, and the percentage of its opponents has increased by the same amount. Support for the government is currently declared by slightly more than one in three adult Poles (34%), while 50% are its opponents.”
— MORE THAN HALF OF ADULT POLES STILL BELIEVE THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES OFFER NO CHANCE FOR ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT: More than half of adult Poles (53%) still believe that the current government's policies offer no chance for economic improvement, while slightly more than one-third of respondents (36%) hold the opposite view.
— IN RELATION TO MARCH, THE PRIME MINISTER'S RATINGS HAVE MINIMALLY DETERIORATED, RETURNING TO FEBRUARY LEVELS, 51% ARE NOT SATISFIED THAT TUSK IS PRIME MINISTER: In relation to March, the Prime Minister's ratings have minimally deteriorated, returning to February levels. Currently, less than two-fifths of respondents (37%, a decrease of 1 point) express satisfaction with Donald Tusk holding the office of Prime Minister, while half of adult Poles (51%) are not satisfied with him being Prime Minister.
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7004
— TRZASKOWSKI HAS LOST AS MUCH AS 6.6 PERCENTAGE POINTS SINCE EARLY APRIL – WP REPORTS ON UNITED SURVEYS POLL: “In the first round of elections, the Civic Coalition candidate Rafał Trzaskowski would achieve the best result – 31.7%. However, this is another poll in which the Mayor of Warsaw is experiencing a decline in support. As of mid-April, the number of people declaring their intention to vote for him was 1.8 percentage points higher. Since the beginning of April, he has lost as much as 6.6 percentage points.”
— NAWROCKI HAS GAINED 7.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS SINCE EARLY APRIL – CONTINUES WP: “In second place is Karol Nawrocki, supported by PiS. 27.6% of respondents want to vote for the President of the Institute of National Remembrance, which means an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous poll. Since the beginning of April, he has gained 7.5 percentage points.”
— TRZASKOWSKI 31.7 (-1.8)
NAWROCKI 27.6 (+2.1)
MENTZEN 11.3 (-2.1)
HOŁOWNIA 7.1 (-2)
BIEJAT 6.4
ZANDBERG 4.4 (+3)
SENYSZYN 1.4
STANOWSKI 1.4
JAKUBIAK 1.3
BRAUN 1
UNDECIDED 6
The United Surveys poll was conducted for Wirtualna Polska on April 17-19, 2025.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/trzaskowski-lapie-zadyszke-nawrocki-depcze-mu-po-pietach-7148898610174496a
— NAWROCKI IS ESCAPING MENTZEN. CATCHING UP TO TRZASKOWSKI – TITLE IN RZ.
— TRZASKOWSKI MAINTAINS THE LEAD, BUT WITH A RECORD LOW RESULT – RAFAŁ KALUKIN AND MARCIN DUMA ON THE IBRIS SURVEY FOR TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Rafał Trzaskowski maintains the lead, but with a record low result of 30.4%. This has narrowed the gap between him and Karol Nawrocki (24.9%), who in turn has pulled ahead of Sławomir Mentzen (12.9%). The Confederation candidate is once again being challenged by Szymon Hołownia (7.1%).”
— TRZASKOWSKI 30.4 (-5)
NAWROCKI 25 (+2.6)
MENTZEN 13 (-2)
HOŁOWNIA 7.3 (+0.4)
BIEJAT 4.3 (-1)
ZANDBERG 3.3 (+1)
STANOWSKI 2 (+0.6)
BRAUN 1.3
JAKUBIAK 1
SENYSZYN 1
— THE RULING COALITION MEETS MY EXPECTATIONS – QUESTION IN THE IBRIS SURVEY FOR TYGODNIK POLITYKA:
DECIDEDLY MEETS 6.5
RATHER MEETS 30
RATHER DOES NOT MEET 23
DECIDEDLY DOES NOT MEET 34
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2297551,1,sondaz-polityki-wojna-tuska-z-kaczynskim-juz-nas-tak-nie-wciaga-czas-na-emeryture.read
— I AM NOT CURRENTLY CONSIDERING SUCH A SCENARIO [RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S DEFEAT], SO I HAVE NO INTERESTING COMMENT ON THIS MATTER – TUSK IN PARLIAMENT – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/04/23
— THESE HAVE DECIDEDLY NOT BEEN EASY WEEKS FOR RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI. FOLLOWING THE POLITICAL INTENSIFICATION AROUND THE FIRST CAMPAIGN DEBATES, THE CIVIC COALITION CANDIDATE IS NOTING ANOTHER DROP IN RATINGS, GIVING KAROL NAWROCKI SOME RESPITE – ONET PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (MICHAŁ ROGALSKI).
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/nowa-prognoza-prezydencka-onetu-kolejne-tapniecie-u-slawomira-mentzena/jrlg8yq,79cfc278
— FOR TRZASKOWSKI, A RESULT BELOW 35% WILL LOOK WEAK – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “The Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, has victory in the first round within reach. For him, a result below 35% will look weak. Expectations for Karol Nawrocki are lower – a 'three in front' could give him a boost of confidence that anything is still possible. This is precisely what they are hoping for in Law and Justice.”
— NAWROCKI'S CAMPAIGN HAS FOUND ITSELF AT A VERY GOOD MOMENT FOR PIS – CONTINUES GĄDEK: “The campaign team is aiming for a 'three in front,' meaning a result above 30% in the first round. This 'three' is not a fetish, but a real morale boost for Nawrocki and the party backing, which is campaigning for him. Currently, such a result is a dream, but it is not entirely out of the question that it will become a reality. Nawrocki's campaign has indeed found itself at a very good moment for PiS. This is not solely due to Nawrocki himself and the party machinery behind him. Several factors have contributed to this, including the missteps of Trzaskowski and his campaign team.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/konwencja-nawrockiego-w-lodzi-bedzie-na-bogato-zastrzyk-pieniedzy-po-konskich/wtnmb44,452ad802
— SZYMON HOŁOWNIA WANTS TO DEBATE WITH KO VOTERS – IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “The meeting place – the Czytelnik cafe at Wiejska Street in Warsaw – is not accidental. The national Civic Platform headquarters is located in the building. Hołownia will be waiting on Wednesday evening. As he explained, he is inviting Trzaskowski's voters to ask him questions personally, instead of getting angry online. He claims that KO voters are frustrated because no one has listened to them so far, so Hołownia is ready for such a confrontation.”
— HOŁOWNIA'S TEAM CONVINCES THAT THE MARSHAL WILL ONLY NOW "SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE" – CONTINUES SZPALA IN GW: “Hołownia's team is convinced that the Marshal will only now 'significantly accelerate,' and the 'final will be a second round with Rafał Trzaskowski, which Hołownia will win.' – But the average rating is around 7% – we say. – If we reach 10% next week, we can expect rapid growth for the Marshal. The peloton has reached its maximum, Szymon Hołownia is just picking up speed – assures our interlocutor. He then recalls the history of Paweł Kukiz's candidacy in 2015, who started with about 2% support and reached 20%.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31871983,szymon-holownia-chce-debatowac-z-wyborcami-ko-marszalek-zapowiada.html
— FUNERAL OF FRANCISZEK AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A GEOPOLITICAL BREAKTHROUGH? – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Both Trump and his associates are particularly keen on our continent. A visit to Rome could be an opportunity to break the ice, especially since Trump has a weakness for Giorgia Meloni, whom he recently welcomed warmly at the White House. As Prime Minister of Italy, Meloni will, to some extent, be the host of the event.”
— FOR THE CHURCH, ON THE ONE HAND, IT WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY – THAT ITS TEACHING IS NOT SO ARCHAIC AFTER ALL, AS PART OF ITS DOCTRINE IS BEING ADOPTED BY THE ALT-RIGHT – CONTINUES SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Trump himself is not a Catholic, but he may see the Church as an ally in an ideological offensive. For the Church, on the one hand, it would be an opportunity – that its teaching is not so archaic after all, as part of its doctrine is being adopted by the alt-right, which has gained power in the USA and is aiming for it in other Western countries. On the other hand – it's a trap.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42155421-michal-szuldrzynski-trump-i-swiatowi-przywodcy-w-rzymie-pogrzeb-franciszka-okazja-do-geopolitycznego-przelomu
— "I GOT CARRIED AWAY THAT SOMEONE IN OUR DISTRICT WAS SHOUTING 'ARKA GDYNIA'" – THIS IS HOW THE HERO OF NAWROCKI'S BOOK EXPLAINS WHY HE STABBED A FAN OF THE OPPOSING TEAM – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI AND PRZEMYSŁAW WITKOWSKI IN GW: “'I got carried away that someone in our district was shouting 'Arka Gdynia'' – this is how the hero of Nawrocki's book explains why he stabbed a fan of the opposing team. The book 'The Great Lechia of My Dreams' was written on the 10th anniversary of the death of Tadeusz Duffek ps. 'Dufo,' the leader of the fans of the Gdańsk sports club from the mid-1980s. 'Together with his family and friends, we decided to commemorate an important person in this publication, whom we met in our lives and who remains an important point of reference for many of us,' write Nawrocki and Father Jarosław Wąsowicz in the introduction.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31873660,nawrocki-kibole-i-zafalszowana-historia-o-czym-pisal-kandydat.html
— BIRTHDAYS: Anda Rottenberg, Anna Kalczyńska-Maciejowska, Jakub Bodziony.
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