state of play: 03/18/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Totalizator Withdraws Ads from WP, Jażdżewski: The Confederation Boys Are Going for Power, Onet Analysis After Krakow: Polls May Not Reflect PiS's Good Position

Łukasz Mężyk

— POLAND'S LARGEST PORTAL LOSES ADVERTISING REVENUE FOLLOWING PUBLICATIONS EXPOSING CONNECTIONS BETWEEN TOTOLOTEK'S MARKETING HEAD AND 'BEET JUICE' (SOK Z BURAKA).

— WP EDITOR-IN-CHIEF PAWEŁ KAPUSTA: Totalizator, through an agency, has withdrawn advertising budgets from WP today. The issue is not that WP will lose a few advertising contracts; WP will manage without difficulty. The problem lies in the fact that such practices have become the norm in Poland – and it doesn't matter who is currently in power. Let's call it what it is: economic censorship, a standard of authoritarian states. How does such an action differ from what the PiS government did for years, pumping billions into TVP and cutting advertising budgets for inconvenient newsrooms? It doesn't. This story is not just about the hypocrisy of power. It's also about how easily those who promised a "new quality" in politics resort to old, dirty methods as soon as they become convenient for them.
https://x.com/pawel_kapusta/status/1901694251584336124

— IN THE KRAKOW BY-ELECTIONS, THE LIBERAL-LEFT CAMP ACHIEVED 58.12 PERCENT. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AND NOTICEABLE DECLINE – ANALYSIS IN ONET: As calculated by the "Senate – Battlefield" profile on the X platform (@SENATpolebitwy), in the European Parliament elections, the parties of the so-called Senate pact in the senatorial district No. 33 obtained 62.62 percent. [All results in the district I will refer to in this text will come from this profile]. In the Sejm elections, it was 66.62 percent. In the by-elections, the liberal-left camp achieved 58.12 percent. This is a significant and noticeable decline.”

— PIŚ HAS REASONS FOR OPTIMISM. ELECTION RESULTS MAY SUGGEST THAT POLL SUPPORT FOR KAROL NAWROCKI AND THE PARTY MAY NOT REFLECT REALITY – FURTHER IN THE ANALYSIS PUBLISHED IN ONET: “A result of 31.41 percent is rarely seen with the PiS logo in Krakow. In last year's EP elections in this district, PiS garnered 23.59 percent support, and in the 2023 Sejm elections, it was 23.28 percent. For such an impressive result for the PiS list, we have to go back four years, when in the Sejm elections they achieved 31.06 percent.”

— PIŚ HAS REASONS FOR OPTIMISM. ELECTION RESULTS MAY SUGGEST THAT POLL SUPPORT FOR KAROL NAWROCKI AND THE PARTY MAY NOT REFLECT REALITY – FURTHER IN THE ANALYSIS PUBLISHED IN ONET: “The election results should therefore be another significant warning for the ruling coalition, as we are seeing signs of a crisis on yet another front. However, we cannot treat these results as definitive, as they can often be misleading. PiS also has new reasons for optimism. The election results may suggest that poll support for Karol Nawrocki and the party may not reflect reality.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/krakowskie-ostrzezenie-dla-rzadu-tuska-kto-naprawde-wygral-w-krakowie-analiza/dtd1bdd,79cfc278

— CIVIC COALITION (KO) GAINS 34 PERCENT SUPPORT, OUTPACING PIŚ WITH 26.3 PERCENT OF VOTES. CONFEDERATION NOTCHES UP TO 21 PERCENT, ATTRACTING YOUNG VOTERS AND MEN – OPINIA24 FOR RMF FM: Since December 2024, party ratings, as indicated by RMF FM, have increased by over 7 percentage points. The Third Way was chosen by 6.7 percent of respondents. The Confederation is attracting more and more young voters and men. Currently, 54 percent of individuals aged 18-29 declare support for this party.
https://www.rmf24.pl/polityka/news-ko-liderem-konfederacja-w-pogoni-za-pis-em-sondaz-opinia24-d,nId,7932230

— "I ADMIT SUCH A POSSIBILITY." ZGORZELSKI ON CANDIDATES RESIGNING IN FAVOR OF TRZASKOWSKI – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/18

— IT SEEMS LIKE ALMOST EVERYONE SUDDENLY DISCOVERED A CONFEDERATION VEIN WITHIN THEMSELVES – LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “In the presidential elections, they have a convenient position in that they can freely criticize both Tusk's and Kaczyński's governments, without retaliation from either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki, who must vie for the Confederation leader's voters in the second round. Other candidates, apart from Hołownia desperately clinging to Mentzen, avoid offending right-wing sensitivities like the plague. It seems like almost everyone has suddenly discovered a Confederation vein within themselves, criticizing Ukraine, the EU, and competing in assurances about how they stay awake guarding the national interest.”

— YOUNG MEN EDUCATED ON BARTOSIAK-STYLE GEOPOLITICS SWALLOW CONFEDERATION AS A VOICE FOR EXPRESSING THEIR OWN AGENCY – JAŻDŻEWSKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “Raised on Bartosiak-style geopolitics and Korwinism economics, and on internet revolt against 'leftist censorship' and EU absurdities, young men are swallowing Confederation as a voice for individual choice and the expression of their own agency. They fail to see that they are a product of Confederation socialization and that their 'individual choice' is nothing more than a herd mentality following the path of least resistance.”

— POLLS SHOWING MENTZEN IN THE SECOND ROUND ARE EITHER BOUGHT OR FALSIFIED – JAŻDŻEWSKI STILL IN INTERIA: “Polls showing Mentzen in the second round are either bought or falsified. More likely the latter – the media unthinkingly publish polls based on online surveys, which may be representative, but for the age group of 18-60 year olds. Meanwhile, voters over 60 number ten million, making up a third of eligible voters, and they are significantly underrepresented in most online polls.”

— HALF OF MENTZEN'S VOTERS IN THE SECOND ROUND PREFER NAWROCKI, BUT EVERY FOURTH CHOOSES TRZASKOWSKI, THE REST WILL NOT VOTE OR REFUSE TO ANSWER – THIS IS ACCORDING TO LARGE IPSOS RESEARCH COMMISSIONED BY LIBERTÉ!, WHICH I WILL WRITE MORE ABOUT NEXT WEEK – WRITES JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA.

— THE COALITION PARTNERS OF PO ARE LIKE DEAD MEN WALKING – THE VERDICT HAS ALREADY BEEN PASSED ON THEM, AND ITS EXECUTION HAS BEEN POSTPONED TO THE NEXT ELECTION – JAŻDŻEWSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “The coalition partners of PO are like dead men walking – the verdict has already been passed on them, and its execution has been postponed to the next parliamentary elections. Even if they are "invited" onto PO's lists, the result of an enlarged Civic Coalition will likely not give it a sole majority.”

— TODAY, THE CONFEDERATION BOYS ARE GOING FOR POWER – JAŻDŻEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN INTERIA: “Until recently, when asked: 'Who will win the 2027 election?' Confederation members could answer with the nonchalance of former PSL members: 'Our coalition partner.' Today, the Confederation boys are going for power. If PO and PiS do not find a way to deal with them quickly, they will wake up in a world where they will be the ones sought after at the table. Or served on the menu.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-konfederacja-zdobedzie-wladze,nId,7931835

— IF A WITNESS ACTUALLY POINTS TO CIRCUMSTANCES RELATED TO THE DEFENSE OF THEIR INTERESTS, THE PROSECUTOR SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEM – EWA IVANOVA IN GW: “This means that prosecutor Wrzosek had the right to refuse the participation of Barbara Skrzypek's representative in the interrogation. The criteria for refusal are evaluative and give prosecutors a considerable margin of discretion. However, discretion does not mean arbitrariness: if the witness actually points to circumstances related to the defense of their interests, the prosecutor should carefully consider them. This is also in the interest of the prosecutor and the entire proceedings.”

— THE PROVISION SHOULD BE READ SUCH THAT THE ADMISSION OF A REPRESENTATIVE IS THE RULE, AND REFUSAL IS THE EXCEPTION – ONE OF THE EXPERIENCED PROSECUTORS TELLS IVANOVA: “- The provision should be read such that the admission of a representative is the rule, and refusal is the exception. Most prosecutors I know always admit the witness's representative. There is calm, the witness feels safe, and it's no problem for us, as the witness's representative has no right to ask questions or interfere with testimony. However, they are a guarantor that the action proceeded with respect for all the rights of the interrogated person,” says one of the experienced prosecutors.”

— CONSENT SHOULD HAVE BEEN GIVEN, BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE THE WITNESS'S INTEREST, MENTIONED IN ART. 87 OF THE CODE OF CRIMINAL PROCEDURE, ARISES – ANDRZEJ SEREMET INDICATES IN A CONVERSATION WITH IVANOV IN GW: “- Abstracting from the circumstances of pointing out the rapporteur, which in itself provided political fuel for the opposition, it was wrong not to allow the witness's representative to their interrogation. If it is true that two representatives of the injured party participated in it, and if the witness cited their health condition and it was documented, consent should have been given, because this is precisely where the witness's interest, mentioned in Article 87 of the Code of Criminal Procedure, arises – indicates Andrzej Seremet.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31776060,andrzej-seremet-dla-wyborczej-o-przesluchaniu-barbary-skrzypek.html

— THE CASE OF BARBARA SKRZYPK'S DEATH CONFIRMS THAT IT WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER IF THE CASE HAD BEEN HANDLED BY A PROSECUTOR NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN CURRENT PUBLIC AFFAIRS – EWA SIEDLECKA ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA WEBSITE: “In the case of prosecutor Ewa Wrzosek, it could have been predicted from the outset that at least part of the public opinion – that favoring the previous government – might have such doubts. The case of Barbara Skrzypek's death confirms that it would have been better if the case had been handled by a prosecutor not associated with activity in current public affairs, including political ones. If – which is probable – prosecutor Wrzosek received the 'two towers' case according to the order of assignment, it would have been best if she herself resigned from it. Or if her superior convinced her to do so.”

— SUCH A SITUATION ALSO REQUIRES GREATER CARE IN AVOIDING GIVING PRETEXTS FOR SUCH POLITICAL GAMES – EWA SIEDLECKA'S CONCLUSION ON THE POLITYKA WEBSITE: “Of course, PiS would have politically exploited the case of Barbara Skrzypek's death three days after her interrogation anyway, but they would have been less convincing. The political clamor stirred up by PiS over this case must be fought politically. But such a situation also requires greater care in avoiding giving pretexts for such political games. The prosecution must not be intimidated, it cannot yield to political blackmail regarding who can and who cannot conduct this or that investigation. But there is still a lot of room between that and the possibility of foresight and concern for the good of the investigation.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2293141,1,smierc-barbary-skrzypek-pis-juz-uprawia-hucpe-polityczna-czy-prokuratura-zrobila-jakis-blad.read?src=mt

— THERE WILL BE NO MONEY IN THE NATIONAL HEALTH FUND (NFZ) FOR TREATMENT. THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH HAS NO IDEA AND IS PLAYING FOR TIME – JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: “Weeks are passing, and the Ministry of Finance has still not approved the NFZ's financial plan for 2025. The Ministry of Health should be feverishly seeking a solution in this situation. Instead, it is playing for time, assuming that 'somehow it will be alright.'
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31773747,w-nfz-zabraknie-pieniedzy-na-leczenie-ministerstwo-zdrowia.html

— THE THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF PROF. MARIAN ZEMBALI.

— BIRTHDAYS: Edward Miszczak, Grzegorz Napieralski, Marek Kossakowski, Anna Sarzyńska, Jan Bajorek, Marek Dziubek.


Łukasz Mężyk