state of play: 12/30/2024

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: WP Poll: 52.9% Feel Life is Harder After Morawiecki's Government Was Replaced by Tusk's; RZ Poll: 59.8% Negatively Rate the Prime Minister; PKO: Domestic Company Sentiment is Gloomy

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SENTIMENT AMONG DOMESTIC COMPANIES IS GLOOMY. THE THIRD QUARTER SAW A MARKED DECLINE IN PROFITABILITY, AND DURING THE FOURTH QUARTER, EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEAR FUTURE WORSENED – WRITE PKO BP ANALYSTS: “Sentiment among domestic companies is gloomy. In Q3 2024, a marked decline in profitability was recorded, and during Q4 2024, expectations for the near future worsened. The most difficult situation prevails in industrial sectors. Many of them are reporting year-on-year revenue declines, and profitability remains below historical averages. The situation in service sectors is significantly better, although increasing revenues are often accompanied by slightly lower margins. A return to positive year-on-year revenue dynamics is noted in trade and parts of the TSL (Transport, Logistics, and Shipping) sectors.” https://centrumanaliz.pkobp.pl/analizy-sektorowe/kwartalnik-branzowy-4q24-228-kiedy-powroci-optymizm -- AS MANY AS 52.9% BELIEVE LIFE HAS BECOME HARDER AFTER THE CHANGE FROM MORAWIECKI'S GOVERNMENT TO TUSK'S GOVERNMENT – ACCORDING TO A UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA: “35.5% considered life to have become 'rather harder,' and 17.4% responded 'definitely harder.' 14.5% of the poll participants had no opinion on the matter. (...) Among supporters of Civic Coalition (KO), there were also voices of discontent: 29% of respondents considered life in 2024 to have become 'rather harder.' 15% could not provide an answer.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/nowy-sondaz-jak-dzisiaj-polacy-oceniaja-zmiane-rzadu-w-kraju-7108174426106624a -- THE PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS GIVING TUSK POSITIVE RATINGS (4 TO 6) IS 28.9%. CONVERSELY, 59.8% OF RESPONDENTS GIVE THE PRIME MINISTER NEGATIVE RATINGS (1-3) – A SW RESEARCH POLL FOR RZ: “A top mark (celująca) would be given to Tusk by 3.2% of respondents. 6.8% of respondents awarded Tusk a very good rating. 18.9% of respondents rate Donald Tusk well. 17.5% of surveyed individuals would give Tusk a satisfactory rating (dostateczną). 17.4% of participants believe Tusk deserves a mediocre rating (mierną). 24.9% of respondents gave Tusk an unsatisfactory rating (niedostateczną). 11.2% of participants have no opinion on this matter.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41626151-sondaz-jaka-ocene-wystawiaja-donaldowi-tuskowi-polacy-po-roku-rzadow -- THE FEELING OF EXHAUSTION WITH THE CURRENT COALITION IS AS IF IT WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF ITS SECOND TERM, WHILE IT HAS ONLY BEEN GOVERNING FOR A YEAR. NEGATIVE ASSESSMENTS OF THE GOVERNMENT ARE SIMILAR TO THE MOST DIFFICULT TIMES UNDER THE LAW AND JUSTICE (PIS) PARTY AFTER THE PROTESTS CONCERNING THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL RULING – LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “The feeling of exhaustion with the current coalition is as if it were in the middle of its second term, while it has only been governing for a year. Negative assessments of the government are similar to the most difficult times under PiS after the protests regarding the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling on abortion bans. Spectacular failures in the Sejm, such as the inability to decriminalize abortion, instead of fostering a sense that a change is needed in the Presidential Palace in the spring, shift the spotlight onto internal divisions and the inability to establish a basic minimum on matters fundamental to a large part of the opposition's electorate.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-dlugi-rok-koalicji,nId,7882790 -- PIS-COALITION: A RACE OF VIOLENCE AT THE BORDER – MAREK BEYLIN IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The normalization of xenophobia and violence at the border, ongoing for a year, creates fertile ground for future victories of the far-right. (...) the normalization of xenophobia and violence at the border, ongoing for a year, has accustomed most of Polish society to racism. And this creates fertile ground for future victories of the far-right, including in presidential elections.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31579892,pis-koalicja-wyscig-przemocy-na-granicy.html -- POLAND WILL RETURN MONEY TO THE NORWEGIANS INTENDED FOR A CAMPAIGN PROMOTING BREASTFEEDING; THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH DID EVERYTHING TO ENSURE SUCH A CAMPAIGN DID NOT TAKE PLACE HERE. THIS IS A COMPLETELY UNINTELLIGIBLE MOVE,” SAYS DR. HAB. N. MED. MARIA WILIŃSKA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH SŁAWOMIR ZAGÓRSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “I would also like to mention an important aspect of breastfeeding at the end, regarding which awareness in Poland, in particular, should be greater. Currently, in Europe, there is talk of a plague of cancer in Poland. And when we talk about primary prevention of cancer diseases in women, let's remember that breastfeeding reduces the risk of breast cancer by 26% and ovarian cancer by as much as 37%. This means that out of one hundred women suffering from ovarian cancer, 37 could have avoided the disease if they had breastfed. Is there a better recommendation for breastfeeding? We did not manage to convey all of this in the planned information campaign… Thank you OKO.press for this opportunity.” https://oko.press/polska-zwroci-norwegom-pieniadze-przeznaczone-na-kampanie-promujaca-karmienie-piersia -- DAUGHTER OF A CIVIC COALITION COUNCILLOR, FORMER EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF "GAZETA KRAKOWSKA." WHO ELSE GOT A JOB IN THE KRAKOW CITY OFFICE? – ANNA KOLET-ICIEK IN GW: “We wanted to ask her if her party affiliations could have influenced her employment in the office, which is headed by a PO mayor. Drabik, however, did not want to talk to 'Wyborcza.' She only informed us that she was on leave and asked to be contacted after January 7th. (...) Michał Drewnicki, a PiS councillor, points out that over the last 10 years, one thousand new jobs have been created in the office alone.” https://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,31580172,corka-radnej-platformy-obywatelskiej-byly-redaktor-naczelny.html -- BRITISH EXPERTS STATE: "NO SIGNIFICANCE CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO TRACES OF EXPLOSIVES." IF ONLY BECAUSE THESE ARE VERY SMALL QUANTITIES – MARCIN RYBAK IN GW: “Experts from Great Britain, Italy, and Ireland rule out an explosion on board the presidential Tupolev aircraft that crashed in 2010 in Smolensk. A team of prosecutors, appointed by Zbigniew Ziobro, also discontinued the key line of inquiry concerning the search for explosives on the wreckage. 'Wyborcza' is the first to reveal the latest opinions of foreign specialists and the findings of Investigative Team No. 1 on how the presence of explosives on the aircraft wreckage was investigated.” https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,31578282,katastrofa-smolenska-jaka-jest-prawda-o-badaniach-trotylu-na.html -- TRUMP DOES NOT WANT TO BE PERCEIVED AS A LOSER. THIS IS A GAME OF THE HIGHEST STAKES: WE CANNOT LOSE THE NARRATIVE WAR WITH RUSSIA – MAREK MAGIEROWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “Therefore, the Polish government and diplomacy must make every effort to make the new President of the United States aware that concessions to Russia that go too far will be equivalent to his defeat. And Donald Trump does not want to be perceived as a loser. This is a game of the highest stakes: we cannot lose the narrative war with Russia, and our opponent is excellent in this area – even better than us.” -- PERHAPS RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI SERIOUSLY FEARED THAT I WOULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT – MAGIEROWSKI CONTINUES WITH FLIEGER IN RZ: “Perhaps Radosław Sikorski seriously feared that I would run for president. And Chile – to put it half-jokingly, half-seriously – was far enough from Poland. (...) The only option I considered at one point was going to Buenos Aires. I consistently emphasized in my correspondence with the ministry that my condition was to reach an agreement regarding my service with the president. Ultimately, nothing came of it, and the subsequent information I received concerned only my recall from Washington. As far as I know, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not take any formal step in this matter.” https://www.rp.pl/dyplomacja/art41622651-marek-magierowski-byc-moze-radoslaw-sikorski-powaznie-sie-obawial-ze-wystartuje-w-wyborach-prezydenckich -- "AN ANTISEMITIC, NATIONALIST, AND POPULIST PARTY LED BY MENTZEN." LESZCZYNA ON KONFEDERACJA – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/30 -- MAGDALENA ŚRODA AND JACEK ŻAKOWSKI WILL NO LONGER BE REGULAR COLUMNISTS FOR "GAZETA WYBORCZA" – THE PORTAL WIRTUALNEMEDIA.PL HAS LEARNED. LAST FRIDAY, MONIKA OLEJNIK SAID GOODBYE TO "GW." https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/jacek-zakowski-magdalena-sroda-gazeta-wyborcza-agora-monika-olejnik -- BIRTHDAYS: Sylwester Tułajew, Bartosz Arłukowicz, Tomasz Głogowski.

Łukasz Mężyk