state of play: 12/23/2024

THE STATE OF PLAY: Jażdżewski on the Temporary Takeover of TVN by a Polish Consortium, Likely with State Participation; Stankiewicz on Pressure on Hołownia and the Left to Withdraw

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE EUROPEAN UNION IS LOSING COMPETITIVENESS AND IS DOOMED TO STAGNATION WITHOUT SERIOUS REFORMS. BUT IN POLAND, FEW PEOPLE CARE ABOUT THIS PROBLEM - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Europeans also have a different savings model than Americans. As much as 1/3 of savings – €11.5 trillion – is held in cash or bank deposits, while Americans hold only 1/10. Our competitors across the Atlantic invest the vast majority of their savings in riskier, but also more profitable, instruments financing long-term investments, including innovative companies. Therefore, although European households save 13% of their income, compared to just 8% in the United States, their savings contribute to the innovative economy to a much lesser extent than in the United States.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31564774,dlaczego-europa-przegrywa-globalny-wyscig.html -- THIS YEAR, WE'LL GET SOLID PRICE HIKES FOR CHRISTMAS - BUSINESS INSIDER AND PANPARAGON APP SHOPPING BASKET - MATEUSZ MADEJSKI: “Unfortunately, this is a continuation of an unfavorable trend that we have been observing for many weeks – shopping is becoming increasingly expensive.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/poradnik-finansowy/w-tym-roku-pod-choinke-dostaniemy-solidne-podwyzki/2sf6m3d -- 36% WOULD MOST LIKE TO SPEND CHRISTMAS EVE WITH TRZASKOWSKI, 21% WITH NAWROCKI - POLL FOR SE: https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/kandydat-najlepszy-na-swieta-zobacz-najnowszy-sondaz-dla-super-expressu-aa-Mz54-cD8U-2D3b.html -- Duda: The National Electoral Commission (PKW) has an obligation to implement the Supreme Court's ruling, period. I suggest the PKW stop playing politics - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/23 -- IF THE PKW RECOGNIZES THE CHAMBER ON THE CONFEDERATION'S CASE BUT NOT ON THE PIS CASE, IT ONLY INCREASES THE CHAOS, BECAUSE IT GIVES THE IMPRESSION THAT PIS WAS ARBITRARILY DEPRIVED OF THE RIGHT TO A TRIAL - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Let’s take a recent high-profile example. From the perspective of the mentioned criteria, the case of the State Electoral Commission revoking PiS's funding does not look good. The PKW decided to suspend the decision regarding the appeal of Kaczyński's party to the improperly formed Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the Supreme Court until the situation in that court is rectified. However, it previously recognized the chamber's actions in the case of Konfederacja, as well as Porozumienie dla Demokracji (formerly Porozumienie Gowina). If the PKW recognizes the chamber in the Konfederacja case but not in the PiS case, it only increases the chaos, because it gives the impression that PiS was arbitrarily deprived of the right to a trial.” -- IF THE PKW DID NOT HAVE THE TOOLS TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM, IT COULD AT LEAST LIMIT THE DAMAGE BY ADOPTING A WELL-JUSTIFIED AND CONSISTENT APPROACH IN ANALOGOUS CASES - SAWCZUK CONTINUES: “Meanwhile, the lack of access to justice remains a real problem, and furthermore, it concerns electoral law, which is one of the most sensitive elements of the democratic system. This weakens the authority of the state and may threaten further destabilization. While the PKW did not have the tools to solve the problem, it could at least limit the damage by adopting a well-justified and consistent approach in analogous cases.” -- THE RULE OF LAW CRISIS IS DEEPENING AND HAS NEVER TOUCHED SO CLOSELY ON THE ISSUE OF ELECTION VALIDITY - SAWCZUK'S CONCLUSION IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “From the perspective of state stability, the situation is therefore very uncomfortable. The rule of law crisis is deepening and has never touched so closely on the issue of election validity. A political agreement would make sense – however, if it were to be lasting and have a chance of success, it would have to concern the entirety of the rule of law problems. This is extremely unlikely. The restoration of institutions in the event of the ruling coalition's candidate winning the presidential election will be of fundamental importance – but one cannot help but get the impression that with the passage of time, and thus the progressing degeneration of the system, carrying out a rescue operation will become increasingly difficult.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2283149,1,kryzys-praworzadnosci-wybory-za-pasem-operacja-ratunkowa-bedzie-coraz-trudniejsza.read -- TV REPUBLIKA AND WPOLSCE24 ABOUT AN EVENT ATTENDED BY, AMONG OTHERS, THE CEO OF TVP AND POLITICIANS: https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/716602-nasz-news-politycy-po-baluja-z-pracownikami-neo-tvp -- CONFEDERACJA WILL DEFINITELY PLAY ON ANTI-UKRAINIAN SENTIMENTS IN THIS CAMPAIGN, BECAUSE THEY EXIST IN SOCIETY - TOMASZ NYCZKA QUOTES PROF. SZYMON OSSOWSKI IN GW: “Konfederacja will definitely play on anti-Ukrainian sentiments in this campaign, because they exist in society, and on taxes. They will try to convince people that Poles have to pay for Ukrainians, and that they are taking our jobs. They will emphasize that they, as the only ones, have not yet governed. And they will raise migration issues – this is precisely what right-wing populists in Europe grow on.” -- POLAND'S ARMED INVOLVEMENT IN THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE IS A REAL CONCERN - NYCZKA QUOTES CONFEDERACJA MP ROMAN FRITZ IN GW: “- We don't want war. It's the last thing Poland needs. We have so many misfortunes, problems related to the budget deficit, to demographics. Let's focus on these things. Let's not get drawn into the conflict – MP Fritz tells us, adding: – We are trying to reach everyone with our message.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31560404,mentzen-idzie-po-trzeci-wynik-w-wyborach-prezydenckich-straszy.html -- POLAND FACES A FIGHT FOR THE "SOUL OF EUROPE" AND ITS OWN POLITICAL SOVEREIGNTY WITH VIKTOR ORBAN - LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “Orban has been consistently building his position in other European countries for many years. Business-wise, media-wise: buying media, establishing political institutes, conducting extensive lobbying campaigns, making strategic investments. Now this ally of Putin (and Trump) is interfering in Poland's internal political affairs. It is high time to oppose Orban firmly and using more than just diplomatic methods.” -- THE SAFEST, ALBEIT CONTROVERSIAL, OPTION WILL BE, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, THE TAKEOVER OF TVN BY A POLISH CONSORTIUM, LIKELY WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF STATE-CONTROLLED ENTITIES - JAŻDŻEWSKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “It will be difficult to decisively oppose the purchase of TVN by a specific entity. One can imagine that a neutral company not associated with Orban will take it over, which he can then acquire through an agreement with the buyer, and the transaction may not involve an entity directly controlling the station in Poland at all. The safest, albeit controversial, option will be, at least temporarily, the takeover of TVN by a Polish consortium, likely with the participation of state-controlled entities.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-orban-wypowiedzial-polsce-polityczna-wojne-jak-nalezy-mu-odp,nId,7880289 -- HOŁOWNIA IS HEADING FOR A COLLISION WITH AN ICEBERG. WITHIN THE COALITION, THERE ARE WHISPERS OF "WE HAVE A PROBLEM" - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND KAMIL DZIUBKA IN NEWSWEEK: “- Kobosko writes to Rector Paweł Cz. 'thanks for the brief meeting in Karpacz,' meaning at the Economic Forum. - 'One more question, a request, we received tuition fees from Ms. Iwona, me and a colleague.' We know who this Ms. Iwona is, Rector Paweł Cz.'s right-hand woman, but who is this colleague? – Stankiewicz ironizes. - 'I won't hide that these are quite high amounts for us, at this start-up stage we are building...' – Stankiewicz reads and adds: – What kind of startup could it have been? Could it be about tuition fees? But they didn't pay, because they weren't there at all, so why are they discussing tuition fees? – Andrzej Stankiewicz wonders, referring to the statement by Hołownia and Kobosko, who maintained that they had nothing to do with either Rector Paweł Cz. or his university.” -- THERE IS A RUMOR, A THEORY, THAT IF ENOUGH PRESSURE IS APPLIED TO SZYMON, HE WILL WITHDRAW FROM RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT. AND ACCORDING TO THIS THEORY, IF HE WITHDREW BEFORE THE FIRST ROUND AND SUPPORTED THE CIVIC COALITION (KO) CANDIDATE, AND THE LEFT DID THE SAME, THEN A FIRST-ROUND VICTORY FOR TRZASKOWSKI IS REAL - SAYS STANKIEWICZ: “As the hosts of 'Stan Wyjątkowy' (State of Exception) say, Szymon Hołownia believes that the information revealed by Krysiak is intended to be an element of pressure. – There is a rumor, a theory, that if enough pressure is applied to Szymon, he will withdraw from running for president. And according to this theory, if he withdrew before the first round and supported the KO candidate, and the Left did the same, then a first-round victory for Trzaskowski is real – says Stankiewicz. – This is not the first time that Marshal Hołownia claims that the leak of information about his connection with Collegium Humanum is intended to be an element of political game – adds Kamil Dziubka.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/szymon-holownia-idzie-na-zderzenie-z-gora-lodowa-w-koalicji-slychac-mamy-problem/n11q1vf -- WHY KAROL NAWROCKI'S "I DON'T CONSIDER ANYTHING" IS NOT A MISTAKE - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “By saying 'I don't consider anything,' Nawrocki, on one hand, does not alienate the PiS base, for whom criticizing 'their man' would likely be a step too far. On the other hand, he distances himself from the whole matter, demonstrating that he is above it. He won't convince KO voters, he won't alienate PiS voters, but he might convince the voter who increasingly disapproves of the polarization of society by both sides that as president he will be able to rise above the logic of political dispute. And it is for this voter that Nawrocki and Trzaskowski will compete in the second round. And in reality, it is this voter who will choose the president for Poles.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41609061-artur-bartkiewicz-dlaczego-nie-uwazam-nic-karola-nawrockiego-nie-jest-bledem -- THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE CONTROL OF ELITES. ANTI-SYSTEM POPULISM IS ALSO. WHERE IS THE PLACE FOR THE LEFT HERE? - TOMASZ S. MARKIEWKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “If fighting for systemic change means confronting elites, then the Left won't achieve much here by trying to imitate the right-wing populism, which is sponsored by these very elites.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/system-jest-pod-kontrola-elit-markiewka/ -- 24 YEARS AGO Leszek Balcerowicz became the President of the National Bank of Poland (22.12.2020). -- BIRTHDAYS: Jan Parys, Szczepan Twardoch.

Łukasz Mężyk