state of play: 12/20/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Polityka Weekly Focuses: Duda No Longer Liked Even by PiS Voters, Majmurek: Left-Wing Voters Watch and Say: They're Defending Someone, But Not Me, and Can't Even Do That

Łukasz Mężyk

-- CBOS: 50 PERCENT OF POLED POLES ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE DIRECTION OF CHANGES IN THE COUNTRY - INTERIA REPORTS: “50 percent of polled Poles are dissatisfied with the direction of changes in the country - according to a survey by the Center for Public Opinion Research (CBOS). Two groups primarily view the development of the situation positively: people aged 45-54 and residents of large cities. More than one-fifth of CBOS respondents expect to live worse in 2025.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-wzrasta-liczba-niezadowolonych-niepokojacy-trend-w-nowym-son,nId,7878889 -- INDUSTRY WORSE THAN FORECASTS. A MONTH AGO TUSK TRIUMPHED, NOW THERE ARE NO REASONS - WRITES MIKOŁAJ FIDZIŃSKI IN RZ: “Industrial production in Poland fell by 1.5 percent year-on-year in November - reported GUS on Thursday. Construction and assembly production plummeted by 9.3 percent y/y. November industrial production data is a bucket of cold water after the sensational statistics for October. At that time, industrial sales production grew by as much as 4.6 percent year-on-year, significantly exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts. The data was so good that Prime Minister Donald Tusk himself boasted about it.” https://www.rp.pl/dane-gospodarcze/art41601181-przemysl-gorzej-od-prognoz-miesiac-temu-tusk-triumfowal-teraz-nie-ma-powodow -- LESZEK MILLER CONTINUES TO ATTACK THE PRIME MINISTER OVER THE COURSE OF THE VISIT TO LVIV: “However, the Prime Minister's Chancellery communique indicates that the head of government found several minutes to visit ‘the historic Melnyk Street in Lviv, which is currently undergoing reconstruction after damage caused by a Russian missile attack’. Melnyk perceived Poles as the main obstacle on the path to Ukraine's independence. He was not directly involved in the genocide in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia. Nevertheless, his activities make him one of the key leaders of the Ukrainian nationalist movement. During his stay in Lviv, the Polish Prime Minister declared assistance in rebuilding the buildings on Melnyk Street, which were destroyed as a result of a Russian missile attack.” https://x.com/LeszekMiller/status/1869875187530784791 -- JOINT RESEARCH PROJECT BY TYGODNIK POLITYKA AND IBRIS IS DESCRIBED BY RAFAŁ KALUKIN AND MARCIN DUMA. -- ACCOUNTING FOR THE PIS GOVERNMENTS NO LONGER ENJOYS SPECIAL CONSIDERATION, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OPENLY QUESTIONED EITHER: “THE ACCOUNTING IS NOT BAD, BUT THERE IS NOTHING IN RETURN” - KALUKIN AND DUMA WRITE ABOUT PIS FOCUS GROUPS: “Political polarization is more bothersome than it is emotionally charged. Supporters of the Third Way clearly indicate this (– Two parties are at each other's throats and are further fueling the conflict because it benefits them), although weariness of conflict is visible practically everywhere. Accounting for the PiS governments no longer enjoys special consideration, although it is also not openly questioned, even within the group of supporters of the previous government (– Some part of it is justified, but it's hard to resist the impression that it's revenge; – The accounting is not bad, but there is nothing in return). However, manifestations of this ‘revenge’ are not visible on the other side of the barricade; coalition voters generally do not spontaneously raise this topic.” -- DUDA HAS CEASED TO BE LIKED EVEN BY PIS VOTERS, ALTHOUGH RIGHT-WING CORRECTNESS HAS SOMEWHAT SOFTENED THE JUDGMENT - FURTHER IN THE FOCUS GROUPS OF IBRIS AND POLITYKA DESCRIBED BY KALUKIN AND DUMA: “Andrzej Duda found himself at the other pole, who has ceased to be liked even by PiS voters, although right-wing correctness has somewhat softened the judgment. Because when one of the respondents blurted out that he is ‘a person I am ashamed of’ and ‘a meme president’, he was immediately disciplined with the suggestion to remember Komorowski. But in the end, Duda was appreciated for rather secondary issues, especially his oratorical talents and general decorum, while being criticized for much more serious issues, namely the lack of vision for the presidency, strategy, and cunning. The PiS group even made a charge against the president that in relations with Ukraine ‘he opened our Polish heart too much’. Although voters for Konfederacja treated him much more harshly for this despite everything (– He is a spokesperson for the interests of another state and disregards our affairs; – He agreed to Poland's role as Ukraine's servant).” In the coalition electorates, the departing president has long ceased to evoke strong emotions, evoking mainly pity or ridicule (– Duda? Heh heh…)”. -- TRZASKOWSKI IS THE FAVORITE, ALTHOUGH MORE BY OFFICE. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE PRIMARIES HAVE SOWN DOUBT REGARDING HIS CANDIDACY. OUR RESPONDENTS FROM THE KO GROUP PREFER SIKORSKI - DUMA AND KALUKIN FURTHER ON THE FOCUS GROUPS FOR POLITYKA: “Rafał Trzaskowski is the favorite, although more by virtue of his office. It is evident that the primaries have sown doubt regarding his candidacy. Our respondents from the KO group, in fact, preferred Radosław Sikorski (– He had a great campaign because reality has changed; – Radek would be a better choice for these times; – Rafał is a president for good times, and Radek for more difficult ones).” An expectation arose that both would cooperate, and ideally, a duo would be presented, although this is of course impossible. Perhaps this is a short-lived judgment after the primaries. -- YOU CAN OVERDO IT WITH NICENESS - WRITE KALUKIN AND DUMA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “KO supporters compared him to a Labrador, because he is ‘nice, friendly, intelligent and builds relationships’. However, one can also overdo it with niceness, as evidenced by the sharp remarks about Trzaskowski's tram rides. Five years ago, the mayor of the capital primarily appealed to emotions; today, he is considered more of a candidate of reason, as he does not have as many enemies as Tusk or Sikorski.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2282501,1,czego-sie-boimy-na-co-liczymy-zbadalismy-nastroje-polakow-jest-niezle-tak-sobie.read -- LEFT-WING VOTERS WATCH AND SAY: THEY'RE DEFENDING SOMEONE, BUT NOT ME, AND CAN'T EVEN DO THAT - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “The Left has a clear problem among its electorate with the image of a party that is ineffective, incapable, and often even unwilling to decisively fight in the government for the realization of its values and program postulates. Voters who perceive this as a problem may easily interpret recent events as evidence that the Left can be determined – but not where it concerns the program, but where it concerns a colleague's position.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/zmierzch-wieczorka-a-wydawalo-sie-ze-wystarczy-nie-byc-czarnkiem-opinia/lby9crj,452ad802 -- ONET ON NAWROCKI'S DELEGATIONS - AS WRITTEN BY KAMIL DZUBEKA: “The PiS presidential candidate spent almost half of this month on delegations from the Institute of National Remembrance, of which he is the president - Onet has found out. He combined these trips with his election campaign.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/ujawniamy-kulisy-kampanii-karola-nawrockiego-pol-miesiaca-w-delegacji-to-skandal/e4mtg93,79cfc278 -- COWARDS WITHOUT HONOR. ASYLUM FOR ROMANOWSKI IS A PUBLIC RELATIONS BLOW TO PIS - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “The escape and asylum request in Hungary by Marcin Romanowski, a PiS MP and former Deputy Minister of Justice, is further proof that cowards and liars ruled Poland for eight years.” -- IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HARDER FOR THEM TO CONVINCE COURTS AND THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE THAT THEY WILL APPEAR FOR SUMMONSES AND DO NOT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO CUSTODY - WRITES CZUCHNOWSKI: “The Romanowski case will have numerous consequences: his colleagues who are currently facing various charges and are not yet in Hungary can ‘thank’ him. It will be significantly harder for them to convince courts and the prosecutor's office that they will appear for summonses and do not need to be taken into custody.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31560597,tchorze-bez-honoru-azyl-dla-romanowskiego-to-cios-wizerunkowy.html -- IT IS DONALD TUSK AND THE REST OF THE CIVIC PLATFORM WHO MADE IT POSSIBLE FOR MARCIN ROMANOWSKI TO OBTAIN ASYLUM IN HUNGARY - PIOTR GURSZTYN ON WPOLITYCE.PL: “Donald Tusk - and following his example, the rest of the PO and coalition politicians - has an excessive tendency to express his emotions on social media. Mostly negative emotions. Simply put – Tusk publicly threatens his opponents, announces repressions, openly calls them criminals, claims they will not avoid prison. In short – in Tusk's Poland, the presumption of innocence no longer applies.” -- TOPIC NUMBER ONE: PRICES. BUTTER, ENERGY, AND EVERYTHING ELSE. NOW TOPIC NUMBER TWO HAS BEEN ADDED: HUNGARIAN ASYLUM FOR ROMANOWSKI. BOTH TOPICS HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON, NAMELY PROOF OF THE GOVERNMENT'S INCOMPETENCE - GURSZTYN FURTHER: “But one thing is clear: in a few days, conversations will take place during the Christmas holidays. Topic number one: prices. Butter, energy, and everything else. Now topic number two has been added: Hungarian asylum for Romanowski and its international consequences. Both topics have one thing in common, namely proof of the incompetence of Donald Tusk's government. Capturing Romanowski before Christmas was supposed to be a spectacular success. Instead, it is a spectacular failure.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/716343-tusk-zalatwil-azyl-romanowskiemu -- BY ACCEPTING ROMANOWSKI, ORBÁN IS PARTICIPATING IN THE KREMLIN'S DREAM SCENARIO OF BREAKING UP THE EU - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “By accepting Romanowski, Orbán is taking on this risk. For what purpose? Unfortunately, the answer is sad: to realize the Kremlin's goal of weakening the EU and breaking it up from within. He knows that after Trump's inauguration, he will be able to leverage his position in Europe through relations with Washington, and Trump's dislike for the Union is widely known.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41605941-michal-szuldrzynski-orban-udziela-azylu-romanowskiemu-potezny-cios-w-pis-i-jednosc-unii-europejskiej -- "THE COUNTRY MAY BE EXCLUDED FROM THE EU". ŻUKOWSKA ON HUNGARY'S ACTIONS REGARDING ROMANOWSKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/20 -- IF PKW MEMBER RYSZARD KALISZ CONTINUES HIS MEDIA APPEARANCES IN THE STYLE OF "AND WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, THINGS MAY GO DIFFERENTLY", HE MAY EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THEIR CREDIBILITY AND CONTRIBUTE TO A DROP IN VOTER TURNOUT - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41603201-pietryga-czy-pieciominutowy-comeback-ryszarda-kalisza-zagrozi-demokracji -- ON THE CHAOS SURROUNDING ZUS CONTRIBUTION HOLIDAYS - LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN GW: “Some entrepreneurs are complaining that they received a negative decision regarding ZUS contribution holidays, without being given a specific reason for their fault. However, the greatest confusion was caused by the Social Insurance Institution's announcement about initiating proceedings against companies that applied for the relief.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147880,31557198,chaos-wsrod-informatykow-grafikow-i-innych-samozatrudnionych.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Fijołek, Kornelia Wróblewska, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, Jagoda Zakrzewska.

Łukasz Mężyk