state of play: 12/12/2024

GAME STATUS: Wielowieyska on PFR, PKO, and Pekao potentially supporting TVN acquisition; RZ: No end in sight for price hikes, Christmas to be more modest than last year

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE END OF INFLATION IS STILL NOT IN SIGHT. NOT ONLY BUTTER IS BREAKING DISGRACEFUL RECORDS - PIOTR MAZURKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Many popular products have been increasing in price at a double-digit rate in recent weeks. Butter, chocolate, and vegetables have broken records for price hikes. Prices have not fallen in any category. (...) As the study's authors emphasize, the precedent is the fact that in November, price increases were recorded in all 17 monitored categories – from 0.2% to 16.6%. This is a novelty, as in recent months, at least a few categories always had prices lower than a year earlier.” -- AS A RESULT, FOR MANY CONSUMERS, CHRISTMAS MAY BE MORE MODEST THAN LAST YEAR - MAZURKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN RZ: “As a result, for many consumers, Christmas may be more modest than last year. – Although the rate of price increases is not as high as last year, inflation is still strongly felt by consumers – says Robert Biegaj, market expert from Grupa Offerista.” https://www.rp.pl/handel/art41570591-to-beda-drogie-swieta-i-musimy-sie-do-tego-przyzwyczaic -- GROUP LAYOFFS IN ANOTHER COMPANY. "NO ONE EXPECTED THIS." THEY LOST THEIR JOBS OVERNIGHT - GAZETA.PL: “Group layoffs have been carried out at Stoll Polska in Słupsk. 90 employees learned about the liquidation of the plant overnight. Just before Christmas.” https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,31535284,zwolnienia-grupowe-w-kolejnej-firmie-nikt-sie-tego-nie-spodziewal.html -- MINISTER WIECZOREK REVEALED THE WHISTLEBLOWER'S DATA. "I TRUSTED, NOW I AM BEING HARASSED" - PAWEŁ FIGURSKI AND PATRYK SŁOWIK IN WP: “On September 23, 2024, the ministry actually sent its reservations to the rector regarding Fostiak. It even mentioned that Fostiak wished to remain anonymous – but the ministry decided otherwise. Minister Dariusz Wieczorek personally signed the letter to Professor Tarczyński. – I felt tragic. I was branded a snitch, even though I wrote the truth – Gabriela Fostiak tells us. She decided to send another letter to the minister – pointing out what he had caused by revealing her data.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/minister-wieczorek-ujawnil-dane-sygnalistki-zaufalam-teraz-jestem-szykanowana-7101726195264160a -- TRZASKOWSKI 42%, NAWROCKI 29% - POLLSTER SURVEY FOR SE: If the presidential elections were held next Sunday, Rafał Trzaskowski could count on 41.96% of the votes. Karol Nawrocki would receive 28.7% support. The Konfederacja candidate also made it to the podium with 12.68%. Following them: Szymon Hołownia with 10.67%, Magdalena Biejat with 3.26%, and Marek Jakubiak, whom 2.73% of Poles want to vote for. https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/trzaskowski-zdecydowanie-przed-nawrockim-w-pierwszej-turze-zobacz-najnowszy-sondaz-aa-jcok-Eo3v-rigT.html -- "DECIDEDLY POSITIVELY" WAS CHOSEN BY 5.7% OF RESPONDENTS, AND "RATHER POSITIVELY" BY 33.9% - UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR RMF AND DGP: “How do you assess Donald Tusk's government one year after its inauguration?” – this was the first question asked to participants of the United Surveys poll for RMF FM and "Dziennik Gazeta Prawna." Only 5.7% of respondents chose "decidedly positively," and "rather positively" – 33.9%.” -- RATHER NEGATIVELY 30%, DECIDEDLY NEGATIVELY 21% - FURTHER POLL RESULTS FROM RMF AND DGP: “More than half of those surveyed assess the government of the 13th October coalition (called the December 13th coalition by the opposition) negatively. 30% chose the answer "rather negatively," and 21.4% – "decidedly negatively." 8.9% of survey participants had no clear opinion.” -- THE MOST DISAPPOINTING POSITION IS HELD BY THE LEADER OF KO AND THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENT - DONALD TUSK - RMF CONTINUES ON THE POLL: “The disgraceful first place on the list of disappointments is held by the leader of KO and the entire government – Donald Tusk (30.5%). In the following positions are the leaders of Poland 2050 – both were rated very similarly. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz disappointed 21.5% of respondents, and Szymon Hołownia – 21.3%.” https://www.rmf24.pl/polityka/news-rozczarowujacy-liderzy-i-krytyczne-oceny-polacy-o-roku-rzado,nId,7873606 -- DGP PUBLISHED A GRAPH ON X WITH THE FULL CONTENT OF THE SURVEY: https://x.com/DGPrawna/status/1867105421376491572/photo/1 -- EVEN THE GOVERNMENT IS DISAPPOINTED WITH ITSELF AND PROMISES IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL CHANGE - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “It's not Duda who has prevented the promised money from reaching flood victims. It's not Andrzej Duda who is stopping the police, ABW, and the Office for Foreigners from at least apologizing to activists whom these institutions repressed for political reasons under the previous government. It's not Duda who is now dismantling PISF, provoking a revolt among filmmakers. It's not Duda who is behind the fact that transparent, open competitions for key positions are still absent in state-owned companies, state media, etc.” -- IF IT'S NOT WORKING NOW, THERE'S NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL WORK AFTER THE ELECTION - ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES: “If it's not working now, there's no reason to believe it will work after the election. Because the evil will become even more entrenched. It's not worth deluding yourself. There's nothing to wait for. We need to make changes now.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31537139,nawet-rzad-jest-rozczarowany-sam-soba-i-obiecuje-poprawe-po.html -- "CONSOLIDATION OF THEIR IDEOLOGICAL-POLITICAL OLIGARCHY." BOSAK ON TUSK'S DECISION, BOSAK: THE SITUATION WHERE THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION DEEMS A RULING FAVORABLE TO US, BUT NOT TO PIS, IS ABSURD - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/12/ -- TUSK HAD BEEN WARNING THE USA FOR MONTHS ABOUT TVN, EVEN CONSIDERED LAUNCHING A BROADCAST BLOCKADE PROCEDURE FOR THE STATION - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONE: “The Prime Minister signaled to the Americans several months ago that the sale of TVN to Hungarians could meet with a radical response – according to Onet's information. – The Prime Minister discussed TVN with the Americans at the highest possible level – we hear from one of the ministers. Onet's information indicates that the head of government held a conversation on this topic with, among others, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. According to our sources, the Prime Minister even considered launching a broadcast blockade procedure for the station if it turned out that Russian or Chinese capital was actually behind the potential new owner.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/bomba-atomowa-donalda-tuska-od-miesiecy-alarmowal-usa-w-sprawie-tvn/t6tb8ez,79cfc278 -- MY UNOFFICIAL INFORMATION INDICATES THAT THE NEW OWNER OF TVN IS NOT DECIDED AT ALL. BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT TUSK'S GOVERNMENT CAN EASILY BLOCK THE SALE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW. -- RUMORS THAT THE HUNGARIAN VIDA HAS ALMOST BOUGHT TVN ARE FALSE - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “and PiS is spreading them to instill faith in victory in the upcoming presidential elections among its supporters and activists.” -- INCIDENTALLY, LISTING TVN AS A STRATEGIC COMPANY WILL NOT PLEASE WARNER, AS IT WILL DISCOURAGE BIDDERS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “Tusk decided on a maneuver by listing both private television stations as strategic enterprises. However, this does not mean the problem is solved. The Hungarians can argue that they are, after all, members of the European Union and NATO, so on what grounds is someone blocking the transaction? Who will prove, and how, that unknown capital is behind the Hungarians? US special services could. They could, but President-elect Donald Trump is very fond of Orbán. Incidentally, the fact that TVN has been listed as a strategic company will not please Warner, as it will discourage bidders.” -- THE KEY QUESTION IS: IS COOPERATION BETWEEN THE PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTORS POSSIBLE IN POLISH CONDITIONS. IS IT POSSIBLE TO CREATE A VEHICLE – LET'S CALL IT, FOR THE SAKE OF ARGUMENT, THE MEDIA FREEDOM FOUNDATION – WRITES WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “The key question is: is cooperation between the private and public sectors possible in Polish conditions. Is it possible to create a vehicle where politicians will not play a key role, and all investors will declare their willingness to act for – let's call it, for the sake of argument – the Media Freedom Foundation, the new owner of a commercial station with a nationwide license. The assumption would be that the public investor would have a minority stake, and operational control would be held by private investors. Banks Pekao SA and PKO BP would participate in financing the transaction.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31537007,wielowieyska-panstwo-jest-wlascicielem-pekao-orlenu-pko-bp.html -- WILL IT TAKE ON THE FINANCING OF MEDIA IN CRISIS? AT THE TAXPAYER'S EXPENSE? WILL IT FORCE BANKS TO DO SO? AND WHAT ABOUT EUROPEAN REGULATIONS? - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Because it is known that at least one of these broadcasters was strongly in favor of the current government. Therefore, the shadow of politics will always hang over this government decision. Another problem seems to be the significant restriction of the transaction field for owners, which strongly infringes upon the principle of ownership. What – one might ask – will happen if the government blocks rescue transactions for businesses in serious financial trouble? Will it take on the financing of media in crisis? At the taxpayer's expense? Will it force banks to do so? And what about European regulations?” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41569461-boguslaw-chrabota-tusk-zdecydowal-ws-tvn-i-polsatu-woluntaryzm-czy-koniecznosc -- THE EPICENTER OF THE BIGGEST PATODEVELOPMENT IN WARSAW. DEVELOPERS ARE MARKING THE BORDERS OF THEIR LANDS WITH BARRIERS - JAROSŁAW OSOWSKI IN GW: “Nearly 10,000 residents of housing estates that are sprouting near Chopin Airport feel left to the mercy of developers. Each has been obliged to build their part of the street, but little has come of it. Traffic jams are growing, parking chaos, and… more blocks are being built.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31529622,wracamy-do-zaglebia-najwiekszej-patodeweloperki-w-warszawie.html -- WE ARE WORKING ON EXPANDING THE USE OF THE ELECTRONIC SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM. IN THE LAST YEAR, THE NUMBER OF PERSONS DEPRIVED OF LIBERTY IN POLISH PRISONS DECREASED BY 5,000, AND AT THE SAME TIME, CRIME IS NOT INCREASING - MARIA EJCHART, DEPUTY HEAD OF THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE IN AN INTERVIEW WITH LUDMIŁA ANANNIKOV IN GW: “We are working on expanding the use of the Electronic Surveillance System, but the number of conditional early releases has also increased. Those released early are not dangerous criminals, but individuals who do not require further isolation. Every court decision is made with regard to a specific prisoner. In the last year, the number of people deprived of liberty in Polish prisons has decreased by 5,000, and at the same time, crime is not increasing.” -- PUNISHMENT SERVED AT HOME IS ALSO SEVERE - MARIA EJCHART CONTINUES IN GW: “Punishment served at home is also severe. The convicted person can only leave home during specified hours for work, and cannot go to the store or to an aunt's name day. They are supervised by a probation officer who establishes a daily plan with the convicted person, analyzes monitoring reports, and maintains contact with the employer and institutions from which the convicted person should seek help, e.g., if they have an alcohol problem. At the same time, they can care for their loved ones and fulfill their role as a parent.” https://wyborcza.pl/duzyformat/7,127290,31534299,wiceministra-ejchart-o-wieziennictwie-sa-rzeczy-ktorych.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Starak (77), Piotr Gruszczyński, Gabriela Lenartowicz, Krzysztof Zaremba, Klaus Bachmann.

Łukasz Mężyk