state of play: 10/23/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Janicki: These Elections Cannot Be Separated from the General Situation in the Country, "Jagodno" Across Poland - Gądek on Czarnek's Candidacy, "The Devil in the Eye": Bosak's Entry Would Change the Situation

Łukasz Mężyk

-- ACCORDING TO NETWORK POLITICS INDICATORS, HENNIG-KLOSKA BROKE HER OWN RECORD FOR OUTRAGE WITH AN UNFORTUNATE STATEMENT: https://x.com/Polityka_wSieci/status/1848981499036463567 -- TUSK, WHO HAS PROVEN CAPABLE OF THIS IN THE PAST, HAS LONG CEASED TO FRAME REALITY IN A BROADER CONTEXT, INCLUDING MORAL AND AXIOLOGICAL ASPECTS, AND IS NOT EXPLAINING THE CURRENT STATE OF HIS POLICY - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Tusk is paying the price for that surge of emotion, because after such an experience, one that many considered generational, people expected great, equally groundbreaking, even civilizational changes on par with the act of October 15th. Instead, voters received ordinary, routine governance, too banal for their heightened aspirations. Furthermore, Tusk, who has proven capable of this in the past, has long ceased to frame reality in a broader context, including moral and axiological aspects, and is not explaining the current state of his policy or his next goals. It's as if he believes everything is obvious, but clearly it isn't. He limits himself to pleas not to be impatient, to trust, to give him time and a chance.” -- THESE ELECTIONS CANNOT BE ISOLATED FROM THE GENERAL SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY - CONTINUES THE DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Following the October elections, a two-year transitional period began – until the change in the Presidential Palace, of which half has now passed. However, this is a somewhat deceptive alibi. Inaction while waiting for 'our president' might result in not having 'our guy' at all. The coalition's main candidate, presumably Rafał Trzaskowski, will not conduct a campaign in a vacuum; these elections cannot be isolated from the general situation in the country.” -- THE COMING MONTHS MUST CLEARLY DIFFER FROM WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR - JANICKI'S CONCLUSION: “Nothing has been decided yet. Everything is still in the hands of the Platform leader, but the coming months must clearly differ from what has happened so far. After the warm-up, the stage of truth begins.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2275483,1,etap-prawdy -- TRZASKOWSKI HAS A CHANCE FOR A MUCH BETTER RESULT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THAN SIKORSKI - ACCORDING TO TWO UNITED SURVEYS POLLS FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA: “If the Mayor of Warsaw were to run, 39.4% of respondents declare their intention to vote for him. With such a result, Trzaskowski would advance to the second round of the presidential elections. (...) The situation looks different for a poll featuring Radosław Sikorski. In this scenario, the KO candidate does not achieve the best result in the first round. The Minister of Foreign Affairs would receive 25.5% of the votes, narrowly behind Karol Nawrocki (26%).” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/dwa-sondaze-prezydenckie-fatalne-wiesci-dla-sikorskiego-7084126078106176a -- EFFECTIVE RETURN TO THE TRUST POLL. RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI JUST OUTSIDE THE TOP THREE - THIS IS HOW ONET REPORTS ITS SURVEY: “Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski ranked just outside the top three. IBRiS has included his name back in the poll after a break of over six months. The head of Polish diplomacy holds fourth place with a 39% trust rating. This is an increase of 5.1 percentage points compared to the measurement from February this year. It is worth noting that he debuted in November last year with a result of 27.5%.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sondaz-zaufania-radoslaw-sikorski-walczy-o-szczyt-rosnie-nowy-lider-w-pis/blzgkhc,79cfc278 -- COALITION OF OCTOBER 15TH, DO YOU STILL REMEMBER THE YOUTH? - NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO.PRESS: “If they lack the same energy and determination as last year, the presidential elections could bring unexpected results.” -- BOSAK'S ENTRY INTO THE GAME COULD CHANGE THE CAMPAIGN - NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO QUOTES MARCIN DUMA: “Marcin Duma emphasizes that Konfederacja can still change its candidate, or 'nominate another,' because Marshal Szymon Hołownia has not yet announced the presidential elections. According to the Constitution, he should do so on a date no earlier than 100 days and no later than 75 days before the end of the incumbent president's term. 'If Konfederacja ultimately nominated, for example, Krzysztof Bosak, the situation would be different,' he stresses. He recalls that almost ten years ago, the person who changed the image of the presidential campaign did not announce his candidacy in either November or December. He only announced his intention to run three months before the election. 'It was Paweł Kukiz, who garnered 19% of the votes in the 2015 presidential election. Without him, these elections might have turned out completely differently,' he says. 'If Bosak enters the game, he can easily gather several percent and significantly strengthen Konfederacja,' he adds.” https://oko.press/koalicjo-15-pazdziernika-czy-pamietasz-jeszcze-o-mlodych -- THERE WILL BE "JAGODNO" ACROSS POLAND - INTERNAL VOICES IN PIS ABOUT CZARNEK'S CANDIDACY, REPORTS JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “- Czarnek is spontaneously indicated by our voters. But it's also evident how well he mobilizes our opponents. People love Czarnek, he has a strong voice and charisma. But the argument against him is that he will lose in the second round,' says our source from PiS. - We will have 'Jagodno' across Poland,' adds another person from this camp.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/czarnek-na-prezydenta-z-pis-przemek-musialby-przestac-chlostac-osoby-lgbt-niemcow-i/q6kbd7d,452ad802 -- FAKT ON THE CHAOS IN PIS - AS WRITTEN BY ALEKSANDER WOJAK: “The Presidium of Law and Justice, in order to end the internal dispute within the party, is ready to abandon original arrangements and make an unexpected decision. This concerns the presidential primaries within the party. PiS MPs point to the chaos they believe reigns within the group. The lack of decisiveness at the highest levels leaves politicians feeling lost.” https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/chaos-w-pis-przed-wyborami-prezydenckimi-slyszymy-o-kompromitacji/h6yenzg -- IF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI DOES NOT CHANGE HIS MIND, THE OFFICIAL DECISION TO ANNOUNCE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES IN PIS MAY BE MADE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DOZEN HOURS — ACCORDING TO INFORMATION FROM ONET. PRZEMYSŁAW CZARNEK, FORMER MINISTER OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE, WAS REPORTEDLY GOING TO JOIN THE RACE FOR THE NOMINATION - KAMIL DZIUBKA: https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/nerwowa-rozgrywka-w-pis-rosnie-nowy-faworyt-w-wyscigu-po-prezydenture/recr5rs,79cfc278 -- "WE ARE NOT HOSTAGES TO DATES." BŁASZCZAK ON THE DEADLINE FOR PRESENTING PIS'S CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT - 3000LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/23 -- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE JUDGES' CALCULATIONS OF THE SUPREME COURT FOLLOWING THE PKW'S DECISION, IN CONNECTION WITH THE HOPE GIVEN BY THE VENICE COMMISSION'S POSITION - WRITES IN GW: “Everything indicates, therefore, that only extreme cases will be eliminated from the judiciary. The same applies to appointments to the Supreme Court. Therefore, the judges of the Chamber of Control and Public Affairs can calculate as follows: we have a chance to maintain our status, so why sacrifice ourselves for PiS's interests? It is evident to the naked eye that this party broke the electoral code, financed the campaign outside the committee, unlawfully using public funds. It is therefore difficult to blame Judge Dobrowolski for wanting to avoid adjudicating in such a clear-cut case.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31403905,czy-propisowscy-sedziowie-beda-ginac-za-kaczynskiego-walka.html -- 85% - THE RULING COALITION DOMINATES TVP. THE OPPOSITION IS MARGINALIZED - ONET: “In the latest report on the division of airtime on Polish Television, a disproportion is noticeable. In the third quarter of 2024, as much as 85.65% of the time allocated for politicians' statements went to representatives of the ruling coalition and its allies, including Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Speakers of the Sejm and Senate – Szymon Hołownia and Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. The opposition had to settle for only 14.35% of airtime.” https://www.onet.pl/kultura/onetkultura/koalicja-rzadzaca-dominuje-w-tvp-opozycja-na-marginesie/7r7fmng,681c1dfa -- "LEGAL OPINIONS" RELIED UPON BY THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE TO DETAIN MARCIN ROMANOWSKI DID NOT HAVE SUCH VALUE BECAUSE NO ONE SIGNED THEM. THE COURT NOTICED THIS AND CRITICIZED IT - GRAŻYNA ZAWADKA IN RZ: “As 'Rzeczpospolita' has established, the judge who refused to arrest Romanowski questioned them due to the lack of signatures and dates. And pointed out that they were submitted to the court in this form, requesting arrest.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41333451-zatrzymanie-posla-romanowskiego-ekspertyzy-bez-podpisow -- BIRTHDAYS: Joanna Staręga-Piasek, Jerzy Kozdroń, Magdalena Jethon, Marcin Meller, Mikołaj Dowgielewicz.

Łukasz Mężyk