state of play: 10/08/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: The ruling camp still has presidential elections in reserve, which can give it new momentum, Osiecki/Żółciak: Hołownia's contributory alliance with PiS and Confederation?
-- IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE THAT TV REPUBLIKA CONDUCTED THE ONLY POLISH TELEVISION INTERVIEW WITH DONALD TRUMP IN THE UNITED STATES - GAZETA.PL: “It is impossible to ignore that TV Republika was the only Polish television to conduct an interview with the presidential candidate, Donald Trump, in the United States. Michał Rachoń, a star of TV Republika, was assigned to the interview. Five questions were asked to the former (and future?) US president, but Donald Trump was a classic Donald Trump and didn't really answer any of them, responding to all of them at once.”
https://kultura.gazeta.pl/kultura/7,127222,31365338,michal-rachon-w-rozmowie-z-donaldem-trumpem-zapomniano-o-oswietleniu.html
-- I COMPLETELY CLOSED THE MATTER WITH PUTIN, AND THEY REOPENED IT AND GAVE RUSSIA A LOT OF MONEY SO IT COULD FIGHT ITS WARS - TRUMP ON RACHON'S SHOW: I closed the Nord Stream 2 issue, it was done. When Biden appeared, he immediately allowed them to build it. I completely closed the matter with Putin, and they reopened it and gave Russia a lot of money so it could fight its wars.
https://x.com/RepublikaTV/status/1843357942189568362
-- DUBOIS, ONE OF JANUSZ PALIKOT'S DEFENDERS. HE EMPHASIZED THAT "HE HAD NEVER ENCOUNTERED A SIMILAR SITUATION IN HIS LIFE." - WE ARE STARTING TO ASK OURSELVES WHAT IS HAPPENING AND WHERE OUR CLIENT IS - GAZETA.PL:
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31366121,gdzie-jest-palikot-adwokat-jacek-dubois-sytuacja-stala-sie.html
-- ACCORDING TO INVESTIGATORS, THE CORRESPONDENCE WITH THE LAWYER WAS SUPPOSED TO CONCERN PREPARING A WITNESS TO GIVE FALSE TESTIMONY - MARCIN RYBAK IN GW: “In the Palikot case, the prosecution treated the SMS messages as evidence of obstruction. The prosecution claims – as "Wyborcza" has learned unofficially – that in the correspondence, Palikot, after being detained by the CBA, instructed an employee of one of his companies on how to falsely testify in his favor. The correspondence with the lawyer, according to investigators, was supposed to concern the same thing, i.e., preparing a witness to give false testimony.”
https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,31366032,wyborcza-ujawnia-tajemnice-telefonu-janusza-palikota-co.html
-- IF JANUSZ PALIKOT'S ARREST WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A SUCCESS FOR THE PROSECUTION AND PROOF THAT IT HAS RECOVERED, IT SHOWED RATHER THAT ZIOBRO'S STANDARDS ARE HOLDING UP WELL - EWA SIEDLECKA ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “Starting with the theatrical arrest, during which – contrary to the law on direct coercion (Art. 6) – inadequate means were used: handcuffing and transporting for interrogation in front of cameras. We did not learn why the normal procedure was not used: an invitation for interrogation as a suspect. We don't know why he was handcuffed. Did he have a weapon? Did he resist?”
https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2024/10/07/test-palikota
-- MINIMAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KO AND PIS IN THE LATEST POLL - POLLSTER FOR SE: “The difference between Civic Coalition and Law and Justice is minimal. KO was indicated by 31.94% of respondents, and PiS by 31.40%. Confederation came in third with 13.69%. Next is Third Way (Polish People's Party + Poland 2050), indicated by 10.69%. 8.72% of those surveyed want to vote for The Left. Another party was indicated by 3.56% of respondents.”
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/najnowszy-sondaz-partyjny-tusk-i-kaczynski-ida-leb-w-leb-aa-hZ8c-yE6x-PS36.html
-- CIVIC COALITION, COMPARED TO ITS ELECTION RESULT, IS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN PIS AFTER A YEAR IN POWER - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “In turn, in voter preference surveys, the strongest ruling formation, Civic Coalition, is doing slightly better compared to its election result than PiS after a year in power. KO has 32% in CBOS, 33% in the IBRiS survey, and 34% in Pollster, so in each of these surveys it performs slightly better than its election result, which was 31%. PiS in the analogous period had 30% in the IBRiS survey, 34% in Kantar Public, 38% in CBOS, so on average it performed worse than in the elections (37%).”
-- WE SEE RELATIVE STABILIZATION AND A STATE OF EXPECTATION. INDEED, POLLS SHOW A SITUATION ALMOST IDENTICAL TO OCTOBER 2016, WHEN A YEAR HAD PASSED SINCE THE ELECTIONS THAT GAVE PIS AN INDEPENDENT MAJORITY - DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO: “It is difficult to argue with the subjective opinion of the PiS leader, but the tools that allow us to describe social moods do not indicate their drastic collapse and the feeling that 'life is getting worse.' We see rather relative stabilization and a state of expectation. Indeed, polls show a situation almost identical to that in October 2016, when a year had passed since the elections that gave Law and Justice an independent majority.”
-- THE CURRENT RULING CAMP STILL HAS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN RESERVE, WHICH CAN GIVE IT NEW MOMENTUM. THE OPPOSITION'S ILLUSIONS ARE ALSO SIMILAR. JUST AS IN THE FALL OF 2016, THE CALCULATIONS PREDICTING THE TEMPORARY NATURE OF PIS'S RULE PROVED COMPLETELY WRONG - DANIELEWSKI FURTHER: “The current situation of the October 15 Coalition is similar to PiS's situation in 2016: despite occasional stormy seas or dangerous reefs appearing here and there, there are no signs of fundamental crisis. Especially since the current ruling camp still has presidential elections in reserve, which can give it new momentum. The opposition's illusions are also similar. Just as in the fall of 2016, the calculations predicting the temporary nature of PiS's rule proved completely wrong, with social rebellion or economic collapse supposedly about to sweep them away, so today Jarosław Kaczyński's dreams of the October 15 Coalition's power quickly eroding are, well, just dreams.”
-- WILL THE GOVERNMENT BE ABLE TO LEGITIMIZE, THROUGH DEBATE, CONSULTATIONS, AND INVOLVING AT LEAST SOME OF THOSE ENVIRONMENTS PERCEIVED AS POLITICAL OPPONENTS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS - DANIELEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN OKO: “However, although 'these are just speculations,' Jarosław Kaczyński's fantasies show how great a responsibility rests on the October 15 Coalition. Will it succumb to the illusion, like its predecessors, that all changes will be solidified by time and political strength, or will it be able to legitimize systemic changes concerning the media order, constitutional and common judiciary through debate, consultations, and involving at least some of those environments it perceives as political opponents in the decision-making process?”
https://oko.press/co-sie-rodzi-w-glowie-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego
-- IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SHOW SOMETHING DIFFERENT, IF THE CONSTELLATION ON THE POLITICAL SCENE CHANGES (WHICH IS VERY DYNAMIC) – THE COALITION AGREEMENT CAN BE CHANGED - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA FOR SE: “At the moment, I am thinking only and exclusively within the horizon set by the agreement, which is November of next year. If the presidential elections show something different, if the constellation on the political scene changes (which is very dynamic) – the coalition agreement can be changed, if all partners agree. However, at the moment, there are no such plans or discussions – says the politician, emphasizing that he 'likes his job.' – We have managed to change a lot in the Sejm over these two years – says Szymon Hołownia in an interview with 'SE’.”
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/szymon-holownia-ocenia-rok-rzadow-ko-trzeciej-drogi-i-lewicy-stac-nas-na-wiecej-aa-tSuV-yhue-bxrN.html
-- HOŁOWNIA'S CONTRIBUTORY ALLIANCE WITH PIS AND CONFEDERATION? - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY.PL: “– The question is what PiS and Confederation will do, who might support the project, if only to cause us trouble. Because if Hołownia gets this passed, then Tusk has a serious problem, for example, with the hole in the National Health Fund. Hołownia will prove his effectiveness this way, but will it be wise? I doubt it – he adds. We are not hearing any denials from Poland 2050 at the moment that such a scenario could happen. – That's a good question, for which there is no answer right now – we hear from one of the activists.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/koalicyjne-przesilenie-ws-skladki-znamy-kulisy-burzliwych-rozmow-7079217781832640a.html
-- PETRU: WE WILL PUT THE HEALTH CONTRIBUTION ISSUE ON THE KNIFE'S EDGE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/08
-- ALTHOUGH EMPTY "MALPKI" (SMALL ALCOHOL BOTTLES) STICK OUT OF STREET BINS AT EIGHT IN THE MORNING, THERE IS NO BILL IN PARLIAMENT TO BAN THE SALE OF VODKA IN SMALL BOTTLES OR TO INTRODUCE A NIGHTTIME PROHIBITION - RAFAŁ STEC IN GW: “That's our idea of ourselves. Although empty "malpki" (small alcohol bottles) stick out of street bins at eight in the morning, there is no bill in parliament to ban the sale of vodka in small bottles – despite specialists' recommendations – or to introduce a nighttime prohibition, no one is removing toxic liquids from gas stations, no one is proposing to raise alcohol prices or the age required to buy half a liter.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,154903,31363737,zyjemy-w-melinie-dostep-do-wody-najwazniejszym-prawem-czlowieka.html
-- THE LEFT AND POLAND 2050 IN THE COLLAPSE ZONE - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Will this allow them to strengthen and approach the presidential elections, strengthen their position in the October 15 coalition, and avoid 'collapse'? What the Left and Poland 2050 have, and what KO lacks, are programs and public policy ideas. The lack of a program causes growing impatience in groups that have supported KO with their votes and led to a change of power: the academic community, environmentalists, human rights defenders, proponents of strong state institutions, and civil society.”
-- IF THE LEFT AND POLAND 2050 MANAGE TO PRESENT THEMSELVES AS FORCES WITH A PROGRAM, BUT NEED MORE VOTES, PERHAPS THE POLL NUMBERS WILL FINALLY MOVE AND TUSK WILL HAVE TO START RECKONING WITH THEM - PRZYBORSKA'S CONCLUSION: “These groups have been silent for a long time, giving the new government time, understanding the difficult situation, but the 'honeymoon' of the October 15 coalition has clearly come to an end. The idea of a state written on a napkin is becoming less appealing. If the Left and Poland 2050 manage to present themselves as the coalition forces that have a program but need more votes, perhaps the poll numbers will finally move in their favor, and Donald Tusk will have to start reckoning with them.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/lewica-i-polska-2050-w-strefie-zgniotu/
-- MORAWIECKI'S PEOPLE ARE TO VOTE AGAINST THE MERGER WITH SUVEREIGN POLAND AT THE CONGRESS, AND THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER IS FIGHTING TO RETURN TO THE LIST OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES - UNOFFICIALLY HEARD FROM POLITICIANS OF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN GAZETA.PL:
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31365397,ofensywa-morawieckiego-przed-kongresem-pis-nieoficjalnie-byly.html
-- I KNEW I HAD ALLIES IN THE RULING CAMP. IN MY OPINION, ONLY PRIME MINISTER TUSK COULD HAVE REVERSED THIS DECISION - ROBERT KOSTRO IN A CONVERSATION WITH MAGDALENA RIGAMONTI ON ONEcie: “I don't know if the position of the Director of the MHP is so important that the head of government should deal with me, but I tried to reach him with my arguments. I knew I had allies in the ruling camp. In my opinion, only Prime Minister Tusk could have reversed this decision. I understand the political logic. If such an operation has been launched, reversing it can be very difficult because there are always reputational losses. It involves taking on great responsibility, and only the head of government can take on that responsibility.”
-- AND I WILL TELL YOU THAT OVER THESE MANY YEARS, THE MOST DISCUSSED ISSUES AT THE SESSIONS OF THIS COUNCIL WERE NOT WAŁĘSA, SOLIDARITY, OR JEWS, BUT FREE ELECTIONS - KOSTRO CONTINUES TO RIGAMONTI: “No one pressured me on any matter; the underground independence movement was taken into account from the beginning of the scenario work in 2009. None of the Ministers of Culture I worked with over the years tried to interfere with the permanent exhibition. The MHP Council operates next to the museum. And I will tell you that over these many years, the most discussed issues at the sessions of this council were not the matter of Wałęsa, Solidarity, or Jews, but free elections. One of the largest installations in the permanent exhibition is a multimedia 3D presentation showing the electoral field. Prof. Zofia Zielińska, a member of the council, a person with very conservative views, like most scholars of the 18th century, believes that free election was the cause of the fall of the Republic. And for us, it is a fascinating mechanism of noble democracy, one of the important elements of the republican system that we wanted to show at the MHP.”
-- FOR MANY, MANY YEARS, A VIDEO WITH LECH WAŁĘSA'S STATEMENT HAS BEEN AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE. THERE IS ALSO AN INTERVIEW WITH KRZYSZTOF PERSAK ON THE JEDWABNE MASSACRE, POSTED ON THE WEBSITE BEFORE 2015. WE NEVER INTENDED TO CREATE AN EXHIBITION FOR THE NEEDS OF ANY POLITICAL PARTY - KOSTRO CONTINUES TO RIGAMONTI ON ONEcie: “Lech Wałęsa is present in the MHP, as is his story. And there was never an attempt to remove him from the permanent exhibition. There was not even such an intention. Moreover, for many, many years, a video with Lech Wałęsa's statement has been available on our website. There is also an interview with Krzysztof Persak on the Jedwabne Massacre, posted on the site before 2015. We never intended to create an exhibition for the needs of any political party, nor did we want to avoid difficult topics related to Poland's history. Of course, some kind of tendency is always present in such an exhibition.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/odwolany-dyrektor-muzeum-historii-polski-zdradza-zaskakujace-kulisy-to-byloby/m9tlkxx,79cfc278
-- PERHAPS IT IS EASIER TO BOAST ABOUT THE ANNIHILATION OF VODKA SACHETS THAN TO IMMEDIATELY ADDRESS SHORTENING WAITING TIMES FOR SPECIALISTS. THE FORMER REQUIRED ONLY BRIEF POPULIST CLAMOR, WHILE THE LATTER REQUIRES REAL HARD WORK - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Perhaps it is easier to boast about the annihilation of vodka sachets, which could be associated with fruit purees for children, than to immediately address shortening waiting times for specialists, which has been a curse of Polish healthcare for many years. The former required only brief populist clamor, after which the producer withdrew the alcoholic tubes from the market; the latter requires real hard work, political compromises, and competent solutions. And most importantly, a good idea. Certainly better than the theatrical slamming of fists on the table.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-populizm-albo-znoj,nId,7830273
-- MICHNIK DEDICATED HIS ENTIRE SPEECH TO POTOCKA. HE SPOKE ABOUT THE PERSECUTION THAT ZYGMUNT BAUMAN FACED. ABOUT CANCEL CULTURE, CENSORSHIP, AND EASY JUDGMENTS - ALEKSANDRA ŻELAZIŃSKA, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF POLITYKA.PL IN A NEWSLETTER: “Maria Anna Potocka, the recently dismissed director of MOCAK in Krakow, was a member of the chapter until recently. She resigned a year before the end of her three-year term on the jury. And rightly so. It's just a shame she's leaving in glory and honor. That's how it appears from an outsider's perspective – Adam Michnik, editor-in-chief of "Gazeta Wyborcza," dedicated his entire speech to Potocka. He equated her achievements with those of Maria Janion and Jan Błoński, truly outstanding literary scholars. He spoke about the persecution that Zygmunt Bauman faced. About cancel culture, censorship, and easy judgments.”
-- IT IS DISAPPOINTING THAT ADAM MICHNIK PUBLICLY STATED ESSENTIALLY THE SAME THING. THIS IS A BLOW TO JUSTICE - ŻELAZIŃSKA FURTHER IN POLITYKA'S NEWSLETTER: “It is disappointing that Adam Michnik publicly stated essentially the same thing. This is a blow to justice (please forgive the pathos), but also – primarily – to the victims. One can disagree with the jury's verdicts, with court rulings – probably so, but there are more appropriate forums for this than the stage and better circumstances than what is intended to be a great celebration of literature.”
-- 24 YEARS AGO, incumbent Aleksander Kwaśniewski won the presidential election in the first round with 53.90%. Andrzej Olechowski came second with 17.30% support. Despite a total campaign, Marian Krzaklewski obtained only 15.57%.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Ewa Drozd, Czesław Siekierski, Zbigniew Siemiątkowski.
live
10 hours
10 hours
„It was awesome.” — Morawiecki asked about his meeting in Dębica
10 hours
„That old communist shouldn't be Marshal of the Sejm.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty
10 hours
„They Don't Bother Me At All." Morawiecki on "Attacks” — from within the United Right Camp
10 hours
„I Want to Address All Local Government Officials.” — Morawiecki on a New Program
11 hours
„An Absolutely Shameless Letter from Communist Apparatchiks.” — Morawiecki on Siwiec's Letter Regarding National Security Bureau Topics
11 hours
„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
15 hours
„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
16 hours
Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
16 hours
Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
state of play
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yesterday
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02/02/2026
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01/30/2026
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01/29/2026