state of play: 06/26/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Janicki on Stagnation and Nostalgia, Szczęśniak on the Left's Internal Strife

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MARIUSZ JANICKI BIDS FAREWELL TO ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI: “A terrible illness struck Łukasz at the peak of his professional life, but he didn't give up. In fact, he became even more active, right up to the end; we were also touched by his family values, how he cherished his Gdańsk roots, how he constantly traveled to the Baltic. Łukasz's activity somewhat misled us; we thought he had somehow cheated fate. Many of us quietly asked ourselves how we would behave, carrying such a burden as Łukasz, whether we would be as incredibly brave as he was. He departed in his own style, discreetly, one might say, in the English manner. As if he wished to convey to us – you carry on with your work, and I'll be back shortly. He won't be back now. Farewell, Łukasz, but in truth, you will remain with us forever.” *** -- KOSINIAK: EXCERPTS OF THE EXPOSITION CONCERNING RTM PILECKI, FATHER KOLBE, AND THE ULMA FAMILY SHOULD BE IMMEDIATELY RESTORED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/26 -- TUSK'S COALITION IS NOW CONFLICTED, DISJOINTED, UNABLE TO AGREE ON EITHER PROGRAM OR LEGISLATION, AND OFFERS MERE "BORING DEMOCRACY" WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO SUFFICE FOR EVERYTHING, BUT DOESN'T – MARIUSZ JANICKI, FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “There is likely much truth in what Przemysław Szubartowicz recently wrote: ‘The Right has pulled out the immigration card and will play it in politics to rebuild support. Meanwhile, the effect of the 'bad PiS' is fading, and people are starting to long for effective governance.’ Clearly, for a certain segment of the electorate, the democratic-liberal system and the country's position in the European Union are not sufficient, absolute values; they can be accepted, but only in conjunction with something more. And PiS remains the only alternative when a dislike for the current rulers emerges. This was also the case in 2015, and now it's happening faster. The first signs of creeping nostalgia for Kaczyński's party's rule are visible, when there was ‘something going on,’ ‘aspirations’ emerged, and Poland was a ‘grand project.’ Tusk's coalition, on the other hand, is now conflicted, disjointed, unable to agree on either its program or legislation, and offers mere 'boring democracy,' which is supposed to suffice for everything, but doesn't.” -- FOR MANY WEEKS, NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HAS HAPPENED; STAGNATION AND CONFUSION ARE EVIDENT, FUELING NOSTALGIA FOR AN "EFFECTIVE PiS" – JANICKI CONTINUES: “Governing politicians should not underestimate this picture of the situation simply because it is too simplistic or untrue. The promotional value of Tusk's image, negotiating positions in Brussels, conducting major European politics, and ensuring global security, has its limits. There is an objective importance to matters, but also a subjective, narrative one, which teaches that one must look after domestic interests. Many examples from the past confirm that successes in foreign policy have often meant failure in domestic policy and a loss of power, which ultimately nullified those international achievements. The coalition of October 15th greatly lacks 'local' ideas, ambition, and joint, publicized initiatives. For many weeks, nothing significant has happened; stagnation and confusion are evident, thus fueling nostalgia for an 'effective PiS.' -- THE ATMOSPHERE OF BREAKTHROUGH FROM LAST YEAR HAS PASSED; NOW THE RULERS MUST DELIVER NEW EMOTIONS, CONCEPTS, AND SHOW STRENGTH AND COHESION. IF THEY MISS THE MOMENT OF CHANGING MOODS, IT WILL DEEPEN – MARIUSZ JANICKI WRITES FURTHER: “The atmosphere of breakthrough from last year has passed; now the rulers must deliver new emotions, concepts, and show strength and cohesion. If they miss the moment of changing moods, it will deepen until it becomes unstoppable, and all effort will be in vain. The time has come for new energy, renewing the agreement among coalition partners, and establishing joint, impactful priorities to get rid of the destructive impression of chaos and drift. This awareness is beginning to reach the governing politicians, and voters have known it for a long time.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2261095,1,kiedy-wroci-tusk.read?src=mt -- NOWA LEWICA WISHES RAZEM WOULD LEAVE ON ITS OWN, AND RAZEM WOULD EVEN BE WILLING TO LEAVE, BUT WOULD PREFER TO BE THROWN OUT – AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON OKO.PRESS: “Nowa Lewica wishes Razem would leave on its own, and Razem would even be willing to leave, but would prefer to be thrown out of the club by Nowa Lewica. And so it goes. Can the unity of the Left club still be saved?” -- NOWA LEWICA IS LEAVING THE GOVERNMENT. AND TUSK GOVERNS WITH KONFEDERACJA THEN? – SZCZĘŚNIAK CONTINUES ON OKO.PRESS: “Nowa Lewica claims that if they leave the government, Donald Tusk will form an informal coalition with Konfederacja. Another politician assures me that Tusk might even offer a government position to Krzysztof Bosak. And this would mean the government would shift programmatically even further towards socio-conservative and extreme free-market stances.” https://oko.press/rozwod-czy-trwanie-co-czeka-lewice-piec-scenariuszy -- LEWICA SHOULD UPSET THE APPLE CART OR JOIN KO – MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “Above all this, there are still the leadership elections: Włodzimierz Czarzasty has officially declared he will not run again. However, this change is not until 2026. Perhaps – this applies to Nowa Lewica – it should also overturn its internal table: resolve the issue of leadership, for example, this autumn, and then the presidential candidate. Because otherwise, in a year or two, Lewica as such might be so weak that it won't have the strength to upset any apple cart. Then, in fact, its only option will be to join KO before the parliamentary elections in 2027.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40701201-michal-kolanko-lewica-powinna-wywrocic-stolik-albo-dolaczy-do-ko -- GAJEWSKA AFTER TRZASKOWSKI IN WARSAW? – ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “Who meets these conditions to contend for Trzaskowski's succession? – We must bet on a woman; there's a push for women in politics – one MP tells me. That's why Aleksandra Gajewska, an MP and Deputy Minister of Family, Labor, and Social Policy, was on the list of potential candidates. (...) The second candidate is Dorota Łoboda. (...) Kamila Gasiuk-Pihowicz, who has just won a seat in the European Parliament, is also in this group. (...) The first deputy mayor is Renata Kaznowska, but her chances for a party nomination are currently close to zero. Even though she receives excellent evaluations in KO for being substantive, always well-prepared, working for local government for decades, and being responsible for difficult areas of life in Warsaw like education and health. Furthermore, we hear opinions that she is best prepared to lead the city. But KO MPs are convinced that Tusk will opt for someone who won't have to actively seek recognition yet. Kaznowska lacks that.” -- GRUSZCZYŃSKI ALSO WRITES ABOUT KIERWIŃSKI AND SZCZERBA: “Others say something different: Tusk intentionally sent Kierwiński to Brussels because his political career has come to an end.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31090426,kto-moze-zastapic-rafala-trzaskowskiego-gielda-nazwiska-powoli.html -- CHINA IS GIVING POLAND GIFTS WITH A HIDDEN AGENDA – JACEK PERZYŃSKI ON OKO.PRESS: “Despite many warm words directed at the Polish president, Beijing is pursuing its own agenda and, through various 'gifts,' aims to weaken the increasingly strong anti-Chinese course in Europe. (...) A broader opening of the Chinese market for Polish poultry exports and the abolition of short-term visas should undoubtedly be seen as a success for the Polish delegation. Beijing is generally reluctant to increase imports of products and usually does so as a sign of goodwill for further talks. Nevertheless, one should not expect these steps to significantly reduce Poland's unfavorable trade balance. It is worth noting the broader context of the visit. The European Union is closing ranks and, at the beginning of July, will impose tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles. Furthermore, in April of this year, the European Commission announced an investigation into Chinese wind turbines and photovoltaic panels, whose manufacturers, thanks to state subsidies, are lowering prices and flooding the European market. Through further trade agreements or visa liberalizations, Xi Jinping aims to weaken the increasingly anti-Chinese policy of the European Union, and winning over pro-Western Poland would be a great success for Beijing.” https://oko.press/andrzej-duda-w-pekinie-chiny-daja-polsce-prezenty-i-maja-w-tym-ukryty-cel -- PRESIDENT DUDA IS A GUEST IN CHINA – AND THAT'S VERY GOOD – ŁUKASZ WARZECHA IN RZ: “One can, and even must, hold the president accountable for the results of his meetings in China, but this accountability should be factual, taking into account Poland's interests, and not based on infantile malice or the equally childish conviction that 'China is bad,' so all relations with it should be severed.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40701971-lukasz-warzecha-prezydent-andrzej-duda-gosci-w-chinach-i-bardzo-dobrze -- SZYMON HOŁOWNIA'S ESCAPING CHANDELIER – ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Definitely bad, because Trzecia Droga and he himself owe their October success to the dreams of a significant portion of voters for an open, balanced, and just Poland. In the social sphere – a bit like PiS, but without exaggeration. In the worldview sphere – gentler than PiS, so that at the family table one wouldn't have to quarrel about who sleeps with whom, and so that abortion would cease to be a sensitive topic during holidays. This plan has likely failed and is one of the reasons for Trzecia Droga's poor performance in the local and European elections. At the same time, it could mark the end of the Sejm Marshal's dreams of the palace and chandeliers.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40701921-zuzanna-dabrowska-uciekajacy-zyrandol-szymona-holowni-czy-to-koniec-marzen-marszalka-sejmu -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Przydacz, Nelli Rokita, Piotr Adamowicz, Krzysztof Ziemiec, Paweł Wojtunik, Krzysztof Łapiński, Mieczysław Baszko, Aleksandra Klimont.

Łukasz Mężyk