state of play: 06/20/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Wajrak: The End of Donald Tusk's Myth, Żakowski: Even an Informal Alliance with Confederation is Dangerous, Śmiłowicz: Biedroń's Eternal Vacation
-- EVEN AN INFORMAL ALLIANCE OF DEMOCRATS WITH CONFEDERATION IS DANGEROUS FOR POLAND - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “Excluding labor law violations from the whistleblower bill shows that the conservative center prefers to make a deal with Confederation than to make concessions to the democratic left. (...) What is this if not a silent alliance with Braun's party? Faced with a choice between guarding the democratic camp and doing a favor for the lobby of law-breaking companies, the ruling right has placed itself on the wrong side of history. Its MPs need to be reminded whose shoes they are stepping into, so they can consider if they want to walk down this path.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31071817,nawet-nieformalny-sojusz-demokratow-z-konfederacja-jest-grozny.html
-- HAS CIVIC COALITION ALREADY FORGOTTEN ITS ELECTION PROMISES? "FROM THE CORRIDORS, WE KNOW THERE ARE NO PLANS" - DOMINIK SZCZEPAŃSKI, PATRYK STRZAŁKOWSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “The aforementioned farm in Wróblewo belongs to the Koźlakiewicz empire, the founders of Cedrob. This company was on the list of entities importing Ukrainian grain to Poland. Maria Koźlakiewicz, a newly elected Civic Coalition MP, is involved in several poultry industry businesses belonging to the Koźlakiewicz family. She did not win a mandate in the elections but will take the seat in the Sejm of Marcin Kierwiński, who is leaving for Strasbourg. - Politicians forming the government today traveled around Poland before the elections, promising to solve the problem of intensive farm areas. Now they have power but are not fulfilling their promises. Last year, they spoke of bad companies importing grain from Ukraine, like Wipasz or Cedrob, which belongs to the Koźlakiewicz family. And today, Maria Koźlakiewicz is joining their group. We must be clear - this was electioneering bait, and every new farm goes into the ruling coalition's account - comments Zając. Another politician from the ruling coalition's camp, the Warmian-Masurian Voivode Radosław Król from PSL, wants to build a farm between the Masurian lakes in the village of Wydminy, where he was the mayor for years.”
-- POLAND IS LEFT WITH PROBLEMS: STENCH, POLLUTION, THREAT OF DISEASES. NEIGHBORS OF NEW FARMS ARE PROTESTING, BUT THEIR VOICES ARE HARDLY AUDIBLE - FURTHERMORE BY GW AUTHORS: “Every month, an average of 2-3 industrial poultry farms open in Poland. We produce and slaughter billions of chickens, and half of the meat goes for export. Poland is left with problems: stench, pollution, the threat of diseases. Neighbors of new farms are protesting, but their voices are hardly audible. We checked how the development of 'Europe's chicken coop' is progressing.”
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,172392,31058146,polska-kurnikiem-europy.html
-- THE END OF DONALD TUSK'S MYTH - ADAM WAJRAK IN GW: “Firstly, we must bid farewell to the myth of Prime Minister Donald Tusk as a man whose work in European institutions has changed him and taught him something. As if he had learned about the significant challenge we face and knows what climate catastrophe and ecological crisis mean. This was evident from his ruthless attacks on the Green Deal. What was wrong with fallowing, i.e., leaving 4% of a farm's area, for example, as fallow land or wooded strips? Can't farmers, showered with subsidies, leave a small piece of their land in peace, without squeezing profits out of it? Wouldn't they ultimately benefit from it - such as, for example, more pollinating insects? Moreover, fallowing did not apply to 75% of Polish farmers, as only the largest ones were supposed to do it. Now, after the vote in the Council of the EU, it is clear that Tusk has not become any more sensitive to nature and environmental issues.”
-- SECONDLY, THE MYTH OF TUSK KNOWING WHAT'S GOING ON IN EUROPE IS FALLING APART. HE CLEARLY DOESN'T HAVE SUCH A NOSE, AS HE HAS LED TO POLAND BEING IN A COMPROMISING COALITION OF SCOFFERS AND POPULISTS - FURTHERMORE BY WAJRAK.
-- TUSK NEGOTIATED NOTHING, ACHIEVED NOTHING, AND THE IMAGE LOSS IS AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT - FURTHERMORE BY WAJRAK IN GW: “Some claimed that he wanted to use Poland's opposition to postpone the vote in the Council and later obtain something from the European Commission for his support, and announce the adoption of the Nature Restoration Law as a success of the Polish presidency. As it turns out, he miscalculated and lost twice. As they say: he lost his virtue and didn't earn a penny.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,177851,31075076,adam-wajrak-koniec-mitu-donalda-tuska.html
-- "WARNING, INFLATION IS COMING". MORAWIECKI PUBLISHES A SPOT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/20
-- PERHAPS 800+ AND THE 13TH AND 14TH PENSIONS WILL REMAIN, BUT THERE WILL BE NO HIGHER TAX-FREE ALLOWANCE. THESE ARE THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE EU EXCESSIVE DEFICIT PROCEDURE - ANNA CIEŚLAK-WRÓBLEWSKA AND ANNA SŁOJEWSKA IN RP: “No new social programs, no possibility of fulfilling the promise to increase the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000 - these are the possible consequences of the EU's excessive deficit procedure, which the European Commission deemed justified for Poland on Wednesday. In 2023, the deficit in the public finance sector amounted to 5.1% of GDP, significantly above the EU limit of 3% of GDP. The detailed guidelines from Brussels are not yet known. However, fiscal adjustment is a necessity.”
https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art40670011-zaciskanie-pasa-nas-nie-ominie-co-z-800-oraz-13-i-14-emerytura
-- BRUSSELS IS IMPOSING A MUZZLE ON THE GOVERNMENT. THERE IS NO CATASTROPHE, BUT THE DREAM OF PROMISES IS OVER - BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “However, the opening of the excessive deficit procedure may not be a major challenge for the Polish economy this time. Politicians of the ruling coalition will have a bigger problem, as there is virtually no talk of fulfilling costly election promises in this parliamentary term. Our finances will now be closely watched by Brussels.”
-- POLITICALLY, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE CURRENT TEAM, AS THE OPPOSITION WILL ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGE THE CREDIBILITY OF THE RULING PARTY IN FULFILLING ELECTION PROMISES - FURTHERMORE BY GODUSŁAWSKI: “It therefore seems that responsible economic policy should today mean abandoning, at least in this parliamentary term, the increase of the tax-free allowance in PIT to PLN 60,000 or changes in the calculation of the health contribution, i.e., actions that would cause a huge drop in state revenue. Revenue that is already threatened by excessive deficit, public debt is rapidly approaching 60% of GDP, we have record borrowing needs for the public finance sector, and we spend as much as 2% of GDP on debt servicing. Politically, however, this will be a problem for the current team, as the opposition will once again challenge the credibility of the ruling party in fulfilling election promises.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/bruksela-stwierdzila-nadmierny-deficyt-w-polsce-rzad-bedzie-mial-problem/p82l1v1
-- MOODS TOWARDS REFUGEES IN POLAND ARE DETERIORATING. 42% OF POLES BELIEVE THAT NO REFUGEES SHOULD BE ADMITTED, AND THERE ARE REGIONS WHERE THIS PERCENTAGE REACHES 70% - HALINA CHALIMONIK DARIUSZ KORTKO ABOUT A GW POLL: “Today, as many as 42% of Poles firmly answer that we should no longer admit refugees. And although 35% accept granting shelter to citizens of neighboring countries, such as Ukrainians and Belarusians, only 14% of Poles agree to open doors also to refugees from further corners of the world.”
https://katowice.wyborcza.pl/katowice/7,35063,31069931,uchodzca-niemile-widziany-chyba-ze-bylby-naszym-lekarzem-sasiadem.html
-- BOTH MAIN PARTIES PERCEIVED AS SIMILARLY PRO-RUSSIAN - DOMINIKA SITNICKA DESCRIBES IPSOS RESEARCH FOR OKO.PRESS: “Among all respondents, the five answer options are distributed in very similar proportions. The differences between the indications for PiS and PO are within the margin of statistical error (23% and 22%). As many as 20% believe that both parties succumbed to Russian influence and pursued policies beneficial to the Kremlin. 16% stated that neither party pursued such a policy, and 19% had no opinion on the matter.”
-- IN THE PIS ELECTORATE, THERE IS A STRONG BELIEF IN THE PRO-RUSSIAN NATURE OF PO, WHILE THERE IS NO SUCH CERTAINTY ABOUT PIS IN THE KO ELECTORATE - FURTHERMORE SITNICKA ON IPSOS RESEARCH FOR OKO: “In the PiS electorate, there is a strong belief in the pro-Russian nature of PO (as many as 72% of indications). All other answers account for 6-8 percentage points each. There is no such certainty in the KO electorate. Here, of course, PiS also stands out (55% of indications), but the answer 'neither party' takes second place with a high result of 19%. The third place, interestingly, goes to the answer 'both parties' (14%), 'I don't know' - 12%, 'KO' - 1%.”
https://oko.press/rosyjskie-wplywy-sondaz-pis-po
-- NEW ELECTIONS TO THE MARSHALL'S OFFICE IN MAŁOPOLSKA? - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONE: “Time is running out for PiS. Małopolska is the last voivodeship without an elected board. If the matter is not resolved by July 8, new elections to the voivodeship assembly will be held. There are voices suggesting that Jarosław Kaczyński may decide on such a scenario to remove rebels from the lists. However, there is no guarantee that PiS will maintain its majority then. Moreover, much indicates that KO and Trzecia Droga, who are two votes short of a majority, may try to sway Law and Justice councillors to their side.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kulisy-wolty-przeciw-kaczynskiemu-prezes-zostal-wrobiony/zcpq2vn,79cfc278
-- ROBERT BIEDROŃ'S UNCEASING HOLIDAY - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “He traded his leader's baton for a comfortable position and a high salary in euros. Although he remains co-chairman of New Left, he is almost non-existent in domestic politics. The party grassroots have noticed this. However, this is an isolated opinion. Our interlocutors from the left are rather unanimous that Biedroń's achievements in domestic politics are essentially impossible to assess because they simply don't exist. One MP recounts that during the 2023 parliamentary campaign, the party's co-chairman had to be almost forced to participate in election meetings.”
-- THE NEW BIEDROŃ WILL BE SCHEURING-WIELGUS ALONGSIDE CZARZASTY, WHICH WILL FULFILL THE POSTULATE THAT AT LEAST ONE OF THE FORMATION'S LEADERS IS A WOMAN, AND BIEDROŃ WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO GO ON AN ETERNAL VACATION WITH ŚMISZEK - ŚMIŁOWICZ'S CONCLUSION IN TP: “Among left-wing politicians, one can hear that the new Biedroń will be Scheuring-Wielgus alongside Czarzasty, which will fulfill the postulate that at least one of the formation's leaders is a woman. - Nothing can be ruled out in politics; for now, I have slept well after three campaigns and must prepare for work in the European Parliament - Scheuring-Wielgus tells us when asked about such a scenario. What will happen to Biedroń himself? He will finally be able to go on an eternal vacation with Śmiszek - left-wing activists jest.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/nieustajace-wakacje-roberta-biedronia-187406?
-- WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PROFITS OF STATE-OWNED COMPANIES? SIGNIFICANT DROPS AFTER THE CHANGE OF POWER - BUSINESS INSIDER: “State-owned companies earned PLN 10.9 billion net in the first quarter. This is PLN 7.9 billion less year-on-year. Energy companies: PGE, Tauron, and Energa reported significantly weaker results. However, the biggest drop in profits concerns PKN Orlen. The giant recorded a profit 69% lower than a year earlier. Against the backdrop of the largest companies listed on the stock exchange losing state control, Tusk's Holding presents a poor picture.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gielda/holding-tusk-co-sie-stalo-z-zyskami-panstwowych-spolek/l9fwc1d
-- MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI TURNS 56 TODAY.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Mateusz Morawiecki, Leszek Skiba, Bianka Mikołajewska, Marek Mazurkiewicz, Grażyna Ciemniak, Zofia Popiołek, Mirosław Sekuła.
live
39 min
31 min
Kierwiński: Interior Ministry and Government Protection Bureau Had No Information About Threats from Any SOP Officer
60 min
„Even the last few dozen hours show that things weren’t going well there.” — Kierwiński on the SOP Audit
66 min
„I couldn't dismiss him because it requires the president's consent, and that wasn't given.” — Kierwiński on the suspension of the Head of the State Protection Service
69 min
„There is no institution elected by more people in free elections than the Sejm.” — Siwiec Responds to Cenckiewicz
73 min
Siwiec: If Czarzasty Didn't Want to Be Vetted, Where Did the Unambiguous and Swift Statement from the Services' Spokesperson Come From?
90 min
Why Didn't Czarzasty Submit His Security Clearance in 2023? Siwiec: He Wasn't the Most Diligent Member of the Special Services Committee, He Was More Concerned with His Party
90 min
„The Matter Has a Political Character.” — Leśkiewicz on Andruszkiewicz
97 min
Leśkiewicz: Siwiec's Letter is Full of Errors. Did Nawrocki Work at the Grand Hotel at 15?
98 min
Cenckiewicz's Doubts Deserve Government Explanation, Says Siwiec on SAFE Program
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: Wielowieyska: Not just Braun, but the moderate PSL is also nibbling at PiS; Kolanko: PiS is tempting Kosiniak using the USA
state of play
today
STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Needs a New Program, an Exit from the Grey, and a Renewed Contract with Voters; Doda's Ordeal in the TVP Studio
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Braun's Crown - Destination: China and Russia; Skrzydłowska-Kalukin: The Far-Right is Not a Margin; Stanley: Take Euroskepticism's Concerns Seriously
state of play
02/03/2026
Gruszczyński: Morawiecki and Sikorski's Positions Similar Within Their Parties, Żukowska's Strong Entrance to the Political Season, Szczęśniak: Will Pełczyńska Programmatically Threaten the Left? WM: InPost Triumphs in Dispute with Allegro
state of play
02/02/2026
Polish Political Landscape: Hołownia's Allies, Kaczynski's Health, Electoral Shifts, and Societal Divisions
state of play
01/31/2026
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: RZ: 18 Maternity Wards Closed in Four Weeks of the New Year, Skrzydlewska: Konfederacja No Longer Terrifying, Braun Makes it Part of the Mainstream
state of play
01/30/2026