state of play: 04/10/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Baczyński/Janicki: PiS Won Another, Ninth Election in a Row, and Now Without Kurski's TVP; Chwedoruk: In a Sense, KO's Election Result is its Ceiling

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MISZALSKI MUST CORRECT THE LIES HE TOLD ABOUT GIBAŁA. THERE IS A COURT RULING - RZ: “— I think every voter should ask themselves the question of whether they want the mayor of Krakow to be someone who slanders their rival to win and gain power. — Łukasz Gibała commented on the matter in the pages of Krakow For Residents. — We still have to see the matter with the developer through to the end, who is responsible for the dirty, deceitful, and illegal campaign targeting me. And we will do it – through criminal proceedings. The developer will be punished for his lies and crimes”. https://www.rp.pl/dobra-osobiste/art40139311-miszalski-musi-sprostowac-klamstwa-ktore-powiedzial-o-gibale-jest-orzeczenie-sadu -- MASTALEREK: PIS HAS TWO PATHS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/10 -- THE MOBILIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION COULD NOT BE MAINTAINED, AS IF THE VOTERS HAD COME IN MASSES ONCE, VOTED, AND THEN SAID: NOW YOU DEAL WITH IT, WE'VE DONE OUR PART - EDITOR-IN-CHIEF AND FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The mobilization and intensification could not be maintained, as if the voters had come in masses once, voted, and then said: now you deal with it, we've done our part. Of course, many convenient explanations for the dramatically low – let's be honest – turnout immediately appeared: that the beautiful weather tempted many "city dwellers" to leave; that young voters living and studying outside their hometowns didn't bother to return to vote, and it was difficult to re-register; that voting abroad wasn't even an option; that KO didn't explain its meager "100 concrete actions for 100 days" well enough; that actions like settling accounts with Ziobro or Glapiński mobilized the PiS electorate more than KO, etc.”. -- PERHAPS THE HUGE, ALMOST 50 PERCENT ABSENTEEISM IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF INEVITABLE SOCIAL DISILLUSIONMENT, POLITICAL FATIGUE AFTER GREAT POLITICAL AND EMOTIONAL TENSION - CONTINUES JERZY BACZYŃSKI AND MARIUSZ JANICKI: “Perhaps, then, the huge, almost 50 percent absenteeism is the result of political errors by campaign strategists, a very inconvenient timing for these postponed elections for many reasons, but perhaps, above all, of the inevitable social disillusionment, political fatigue after the great political and emotional tension in the parliamentary elections”. -- THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT PIS WON ANOTHER, PERHAPS NINTH ELECTION IN A ROW, AND NOW WITHOUT KURSKI'S TELEVISION AND MATYSZKOWICZ, BUT ONLY THE DIVISION OF SEJMIK MANDATES WILL SHOW THE PRACTICAL DIMENSION OF THE RECENT ELECTIONS - CONTINUES BACZYŃSKI AND JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “This does not change the fact that PiS won another, perhaps ninth election in a row, and now without Kurski's television and Matyszkowicz. Donald Tusk's party failed to break Kaczyński's winning streak, although it was close, the least it has been in many years. It is not yet clear how PiS's result will translate into the situation in individual voivodeships (it won in 6), how many sejmiks the ruling coalition will take over (Platforma won in 10), and how many will remain in the hands of the former government, possibly with the help of Konfederacja. Only the distribution of sejmik mandates will show the practical dimension of the recent elections, whether April was indeed a continuation of October. Back then, even though Kaczyński's party won, it lost power. Regaining several sejmiks from PiS will mean that local government will also clearly shift into the hands of those political formations that treat local governments as partners”. -- TUSK WAS INTERESTED IN AN INDEPENDENT VICTORY FOR PO/KO, WHICH WAS TO BE THE FINAL CONFIRMATION OF HIS PLATFORM'S POLITICAL DOMINANCE. MEANWHILE, IT IS STILL NECESSARY TO EMPHASIZE THE "JOINT VICTORY OF THE DEMOCRATS" - CONTINUES JANICKI AND BACZYŃSKI: “In politics, however, symbols also matter. Tusk was interested in an independent victory for PO/KO, which was to be the final confirmation of his Platform's political dominance. Meanwhile, it is still necessary to emphasize the "joint victory of the democrats". The lack of this final touch carries the rivalry within the current government camp further, to the upcoming European elections, and then to the grand culmination in 2025 – the presidential elections”. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2252027,1,kazdy-cos-przegral-cos-wygral.read -- IT IS UNKNOWN ON WHAT BASIS KO COUNTED ON GAINING A MUCH LARGER ADVANTAGE IN SEJMIKS WITH REDUCED TURNOUT. IN A SENSE, THE CIVIC COALITION'S SEJMIK ELECTION RESULT IS ITS CEILING - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GAZETA.PL: “The Civic Coalition wanted to win the lottery without buying a ticket. All elections after 2011 showed a roughly similar level of support for Tusk's party – around 30 percent. It is unknown on what basis KO expected to gain a much larger advantage in the sejmiks with reduced turnout. In a sense, the Civic Coalition's sejmik election result is its ceiling. That is – it can gain more voters, but exclusively at the expense of Trzecia Droga or Lewica. However, achieving this could shake the foundations of the coalition. This raises the question of whether a civil war should be initiated in the name of expanding one's own territory. This dilemma cannot be resolved directly. It is certainly not in KO's interest to disrupt the balance within the current governing coalition – Professor Chwedoruk tells us”. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30872490,wybory-do-sejmikow-pokazaly-sufit-partii-tuska-ko-chciala.html -- JUST AS QUARRELS DID NOT SERVE THE UNITED RIGHT, NEITHER DO THEY SERVE THE MOBILIZATION OF VOTERS OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But as it turned out, such attacks by Lewica did not help in the local government elections. With a result below 7 percent, it suffered a prestigious defeat. For illustration, it is worth noting that it won 8 regional councilor seats nationwide, while PiS won 239, and KO won 210. Furthermore, it also harmed KO. The impression arose that there were serious disputes within the coalition, and voters of any political force in Poland dislike such things. Just as quarrels did not serve the United Right, they also do not serve the mobilization of voters of the October 15 coalition”. -- IT CAN BE THE THIRD WAY FOR VOTERS INDEED. BECAUSE – AS IT TURNS OUT – THIS IS ITS GREATEST ADVANTAGE IN THE ELECTORATE'S EYES - CONTINUES SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “On the other hand, this attack allows Trzecia Droga to do one more very important thing. It can show that it is different – both from Civic Coalition and from Lewica. And that it can be a third way for voters indeed. Because – as it turns out – this is its greatest advantage in the electorate's eyes”. https://www.rp.pl/dobra-osobiste/art40139311-miszalski-musi-sprostowac-klamstwa-ktore-powiedzial-o-gibale-jest-orzeczenie-sadu -- IT IS INTERESTING WHETHER DONALD TUSK WILL UNDERSTAND THAT THE SURVIVAL AND DEVELOPMENT OF TRZECIA DROGA, WHILE NOT PROMISING INDEPENDENT GOVERNANCE, IS ALSO THE SUREST WAY TO SEND PIS TO OBSCURITY AND CURB THE EXPANSION OF KONFEDERACJA - MACIEJ STRZEMBOSZ IN RZ: “It will also be interesting to see if Donald Tusk understands that the survival and development of Trzecia Droga, while not promising independent governance, is also the surest way to send PiS to obscurity and curb the expansion of Konfederacja. Perhaps the most interesting data known so far is where PiS voters have drifted. Both Konfederacja and Trzecia Droga have taken exactly 3.6 percent of these voters. Without the socially conservative Trzecia Droga, both Konfederacja and PiS would likely be stronger. Donald Tusk thus faces a formidable task: while strengthening KO, he must simultaneously devour Czarzasty's Lewica and not destroy Trzecia Droga, which immensely irritates KO's increasingly left-wing electorate. The magician from Sopot is certainly capable of such a game, but will he want to and understand its necessity?” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art40134561-maciej-strzembosz-kto-wygral-kto-przegral-wybory-samorzadowe -- KO'S MOST IMPORTANT SIN IS LACK OF RESPONSIBILITY, I.E., LACK OF SENSITIVITY, UNDERSTANDING, AND REACTION TO PEOPLE'S NEEDS AND INTERESTS - MAGDALENA ŚRODA IN GW: “The most important sin is the lack of responsiveness, meaning a lack of sensitivity, understanding, and reaction to people's needs and interests. KO's narrative politics has recently focused exclusively on three matters: firstly, settling accounts with PiS. And that's good. But it's bad that it's mainly about that. It's also worth noting that investigative commissions are not fulfilling their function (of publicizing corruption) because few people watch them and distinguish them, and moreover – as in Kaczyński's case – they allow the main perpetrators to rise from the ashes. Secondly, both the government and the media have focused more on frightening people with war than on explaining the prepared security guarantees. Scaremongering is unproductive. Thirdly: in recent weeks, KO has been "bragging" about restoring VAT on food. The government and the media have done this so effectively that the population has finally believed that the upcoming increase in food prices will be "thanks" to the ruling coalition”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30871544,szesc-grzechow-wyborczych-ko.html -- TURMOIL IN THE CIVIC PLATFORM AFTER THE DEFEAT IN THE LUBLIN SEJMIK ELECTIONS - PIOTR KOZŁOWSKI IN GW: “The MP says openly that there must be accountability within the party due to the sejmik election results. - If I were the chairwoman, I would resign. And if the chairman has no intention of doing so, he should at least explain the poor results honestly and diligently. We deserve that – adds Wcisło”. https://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,30872096,w-platformie-wrze-po-klesce-w-wyborach-do-sejmiku-lubelskiego.html -- LEWICA'S LAST TRUMP CARD. IN 2025, IT IS TO ENSURE THE PARTY'S REVIVAL - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN INTERIA: “- What she has achieved strengthens her in all areas – says a member of Lewica's leadership about Magdalena Biejat's result in the Warsaw mayoral election. - It's a very good result, which entitles her to start discussions about a candidacy for President of the Republic of Poland – adds an interlocutor from the government for Interia. Although Lewica lost the local government elections badly, for the co-chairwoman of the Razem party, this could be the beginning of her path to the political elite”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-samorzadowe-2024/news-ostatni-as-w-talii-lewicy-w-2025-roku-ma-zapewnic-partii-odr,nId,7442537 -- PIS SUPPORTERS WON, SO THEY STARTED FIGHTING AMONG THEMSELVES - WIKTOR ŚWIETLIK IN INTERIA: “Arrests, accusations, media attacks, now also on the "reclaimed" TVP, changed nothing in the ratings. They didn't move the electorate. There is a base to build upon. To win subsequent elections, reaching out to the centrist electorate discouraged by the government and Prime Minister Tusk's obvious mockery of the truth. However, it is unlikely to come true. Unfortunately, the photos from election night and what happened afterwards say more about the condition of this formation than the election result”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-pis-owcy-wygrali-wiec-rzucili-sie-sobie-do-gardel,nId,7442535 -- FIGHT FOR THE VACANT POSITION OF BGK PRESIDENT FOR THREE MONTHS - DESCRIBED BY BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “Since the new coalition won the parliamentary elections, several people have been mentioned as candidates for BGK president. According to unofficial information from Business Insider Polska, two individuals are currently most favored – Marta Postuła, who has the support of PSL, and Mirosław Czekaj, who is supported by KO. (...) Marta Postuła is also a professor of social sciences and head of the Department of Finance and Accounting at the University of Warsaw. In the past, she also served on the supervisory boards of BGK, PL.2012, PKP Intercity, and SKM. - BGK should be strongly involved in financing the energy transformation, and it also has a number of challenges related to strengthening the army. Postuła is very knowledgeable about so-called green finance – a source close to PSL tells us”. https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/bitwa-o-bgk-bank-nie-ma-od-trzech-miesiecy-prezesa/91hdnpm -- THIS WAS THE LAST WEEK OF LECH KACZYŃSKI'S PRESIDENCY – ARCHIVAL ARTICLE ON 300POLITYCE last days of the president's term. “He will announce his decision. I think it will happen soon, but not any day now. Definitely by the end of spring,” said Władysław Stasiak, head of President Lech Kaczyński's Chancellery, in an interview with Fakt on March 31, 2010. Ten days later, the President was no longer alive. How, according to official statements from the Chancellery, did the last week of the President of the Republic and the First Lady's life look”. http://300polityka.pl/news/2020/04/10/ostatni-tydzien-prezydentury-lecha-kaczynskiego/ -- 14TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE SMOLENSK CATASTROPHE. -- INTERVIEW FROM 2021 - BARBARA NOWACKA ON DONAT SUBBOTKO'S QUESTION ABOUT HOW SHE DEALT WITH GRIEF AFTER SMOLENSK AND HER MOTHER'S DEATH: “They never erupted in me, and yet I scold myself daily, ask my children. I smoothed them out. First, I had to deal with childbirth. I couldn't afford despair, lest I induce contractions. I gave birth to Zośka – Izabela is her second name – on Mother's Day. Symbolic, because I was left without a mother, and here is my daughter. Then I had to focus on good things, so that everyone around would be a little like before. My father is an introvert. I think he grieved the loss for a long time, especially since he was left alone at home, with his mother's belongings. My sister was also very close to her mother; she recovered, although she needed help. I didn't. I had one meeting with a psychologist, which they offered us when we went to pick up the items collected from the crash. A young girl came, nice, and she was scared herself. When she asked if she could help me, I asked – as I felt – if she could tell me where the toilet was. When you have a big belly in the ninth month, that's the most interesting thing. I was most worried about my son, because he knew something bad had happened. You can't tell a three-year-old that the plane with grandma crashed. We said that a misfortune happened, grandma died, but he didn't understand what that meant. He asked when she would come again”. -- WHAT HAS BEEN THE HARDEST FOR YOU OVER THESE 11 YEARS? – STOPPING MYSELF FROM CALLING MY MOTHER. JUST LAST YEAR I REACHED FOR THE PHONE. I WAS SHOCKED MYSELF - CONTINUES THE ARCHIVAL INTERVIEW WITH BARBARA NOWACKA. https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,26962509,barbara-nowacka-rozliczymy-pis-za-smolensk-kazde-klamstwo.html -- 20TH ANNIVERSARY OF JACKA KACZMARSKIEGO'S DEATH. -- BIRTHDAYS: Ewa Dałkowska, Halina Frąckowiak, Małgorzata Omilanowska, Tadeusz Truskolaski, Magdalena Adamowicz, Wojciech Olejniczak, Michał Tober, Ziemowit Szczerek, Krzysztof Paszyk, Beata Cholewińska.

Łukasz Mężyk