state of play: 03/14/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Janicki: If Morawiecki can break free from the leash, he'll create something akin to the Third Way; Smolar: The fate of the government and the future of democracy also depend on farmers' support; Majmurek: Polish democracy will emerge from K

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TUSK: IN THESE ELECTIONS, THE SOLE CRITERION WILL BE OUR OWN CONVICTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/14 -- UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WP SHOWS A TIE: PiS – 29 percent, KO – 28 percent, Third Way – 13.5 percent, Konfederacja – 8.6 percent, Lewica – 7.5 percent, other committees – 4.9 percent, don't know/hard to say – 8.4 percent https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/na-kogo-chca-glosowac-polacy-w-wyborach-do-sejmikow-mamy-sondaz-7005284775099168a -- IN POLITICS, SYMBOLS MEAN AS MUCH AS CONCRETE DECISIONS. THAT'S WHY BIDEN'S MEETING WITH DUDA AND TUSK WAS IMPORTANT FOR BOTH SIDES - KRZYSZTOF STORY IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “In Washington, the president and the prime minister divided their roles. Donald Tusk played the bad cop: ‘This is not another political squabble that only matters to America. Inaction will cost thousands of lives in Ukraine’ – he told the Republican leader in Congress, who is blocking support for Kyiv.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/w-polityce-symbole-znacza-rownie-wiele-co-konkretne-decyzje-dlatego-spotkanie-bidena-z-duda-i -- THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF FAKT RAN WITH THE PRESIDENT IN WASHINGTON. -- LET'S NOT URGE THE TUSK GOVERNMENT TO UNCRITICALLY SUPPORT THE SLOGAN OF "DEEPENING INTEGRATION" WHILE IGNORING THE INTERESTS AND SENTIMENTS OF VARIOUS SOCIAL GROUPS. AFTER ALL, THE FATE OF THIS GOVERNMENT AND THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY IN POLAND ALSO DEPEND ON FARMERS' SUPPORT - EUGENIUSZ SMOLAR IN GW. -- HOWEVER, THE NEW GOVERNMENT CANNOT FORGET FOR A MOMENT THAT 7.5 MILLION VOTERS DID NOT SIMPLY DISAPPEAR INTO THIN AIR - SMOLAR CONTINUES IN GW: “However, the new government cannot forget for a moment that 7.5 million voters did not simply disappear into thin air. For years, they voted for PiS, Ziobrists, and Konfederacja, strengthened by propaganda, including from the pulpit, that they are culturally "more ours," and as true patriots, they better defend the interests of Poland and Poles against the hostile designs of Berlin and Brussels, who want to prevent Poland from strengthening and its international position.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30793211,reformatorski-euroentuzjazm-wiedzie-na-manowce-polemika-z-wielinskim.html -- KACZYŃSKI ALWAYS AIMS FOR COGNITIVE CONFUSION, DISCOURAGEMENT, AND DEMOBILIZATION, ON THE PRINCIPLE: DON'T DELVE INTO THIS, WE'LL HANDLE IT - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Kaczyński always relied on a steadfast electorate and from this position tried to break into the voters of other groupings. He always aims for cognitive confusion, discouragement, and demobilization, on the principle: don't delve into this, we'll handle it. The rules of this game are clear: naivety will bring misfortune, every noble impulse will be punished, whoever gives up an inch will lose. These rules apply to every version of PiS's message. Kaczyński's people, and especially Morawiecki's, are building a new post-election agenda, looking at who will fall into this fabricated 'center' and how it can be exploited.” -- IF MORAWIECKI CAN BREAK FREE FROM KACZYŃSKI'S LEASH, HE WILL CREATE SOMETHING AKIN TO THE THIRD WAY FOR THOSE WHO ARE TIRED OF "FRUITLESS DISPUTES" - CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Even long after the last elections, when Morawiecki did not yield an inch in radicalism to Kaczyński and Ziobro during the campaign, and after October 15th continued the charade with his 'government,' many commentators still believe that the former prime minister has some original moderate program, is a European dove, and has the makings of an ordinary democrat. If only he has the opportunity to break free from Kaczyński's leash, he will create something akin to the Third Way for those who are tired of 'fruitless disputes.' Because in Polish politics, a proper disgrace is impossible; the hope for a humane PiS, real or sponsored, still persists. But this requires various well-wishers in the media who offer Kaczyński's party a new life every morning.” -- THE CONCEPT OF THE "ASPIRATIONAL CENTER" IS TODAY THE MOST ADVANCED PROJECT OF PiS, WELL MASKED, SPREAD ACROSS MANY ACTIONS AND FIGURES - CONTINUES MARIUSZ JANICKI: “The concept of the 'aspirational center' is today the most advanced project of PiS, well masked, spread across many actions and figures. It is intended to alleviate the electoral defeat of the right-wing, as it leaves behind long-term, widely accepted plans, thus it is not defeated, only senselessly stopped. This is suggested by the 'interrupted decade' (quoting Edward Gierek's memorable explanation), an unfortunate interlude in civilizational progress. It is also a plea for another, quick chance, when mistakes are corrected and progress is made like a battering ram.” -- THE RESULTS OF A RECENT FRENCH POLL ON MARINE LE PEN'S NATIONALIST PARTY, WHICH IS FRIENDLY WITH PiS, SHOW THAT SUCH A PROCESS OF NORMALIZATION CAN SUCCEED, WITH 60% OF RESPONDENTS CONSIDERING IT A "NORMAL PARTY" - JANICKI STILL WRITES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The results of a recent French poll on Marine Le Pen's nationalist party, which is friendly with PiS, show that such a process of normalization can succeed, with 60% of respondents considering it a 'normal party' (this was termed 'de-demonization'). This is the direction this narrative project is heading, now bolstered by the fact that PiS is in opposition, persecuted in its narrative by the 'total power' – see messages one and two. Both support the third, most important for Kaczyński's party today: PiS is 'for it,' even though in a recent referendum it was four times 'against it.'” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2248587,1,prezes-sie-ociepla-czyli-po-jakie-chwyty-siegnie-teraz-pis-maja-juz-trzy-wersje-przekazu-znow-sie-uda.read -- MOODS WITHIN PiS AHEAD OF THE LOCAL ELECTIONS ARE NOT THE BEST. - WE NEED TO HOLD ON, WE NEED TO SURVIVE. IF WE COULD TURN BACK TIME, WE WOULD NOT POSTPONE THESE ELECTIONS - WE HEAR WITHIN JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW. -- WE DON'T HAVE MUCH ROOM FOR MANEUVER, THE INCUMBENT ALWAYS HAS GREATER NARRATIVE ABILITIES IN CAMPAIGNS, THEY SET THE AGENDA - KONDZIŃSKA'S CONTACT FROM PiS: “- We don't have much room for maneuver; the incumbent always has greater narrative abilities in campaigns; they set the agenda. We can find their problems, highlight them, and convince people that they wouldn't have them with us,” adds the PiS source.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30793783,kiepskie-nastroje-w-pis-przed-wyborami-samorzadowymi-za-wiele.html -- KURSKI'S START IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IS SAID TO BE DECIDED - ANDRZEJ GAJCY IN ONEcie: “Jacek Kurski's start in the European Parliament elections on the Law and Justice (PiS) list is said to be decided. This decision, after many conversations and 'pilgrimages' by the former head of TVP to the party headquarters on Nowogrodzka Street, was reportedly made in recent days by PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, according to Onet sources. This is despite many concerns and critical voices from within the party's inner leadership. 'The die is cast. Jacek is returning,' we hear.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wielki-come-back-jacka-kurskiego-klamka-zapadla-prezes-kaczynski-sie-ugial/rb2vxxm,79cfc278 -- PiS GIVES THE IMPRESSION THAT IT IS ONLY TALKING TO ITSELF - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “The largest opposition party not only cannot set the agenda for public debate but increasingly gives the impression of a formation that is mainly talking to itself, about its own internal problems. In recent weeks, the public has mainly received information from PiS regarding discussions within the party about the reasons for its electoral defeat, the responsibility that President Kaczyński bears or does not bear for it, and finally, about the succession after the current president.” -- WILL POLISH DEMOCRACY EMERGE FROM KACZYŃSKI'S SHADOW? - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “As a result of all this, the political dispute in Poland is increasingly shifting internally within the October 15th coalition. It is within the ruling coalition that a substantive discussion is taking place on issues crucial to Poles, while PiS, increasingly absorbed by itself, formulating an increasingly eccentric message, stands aside.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/pis-stracilo-swoja-najwieksza-bron-skutki-beda-miazdzace/tnn9hmt -- 34 YEARS AGO – 1990: The Central Statistical Office announced that inflation over twelve months was 1360%. -- BIRTHDAYS: Józefa Szczurek-Żelazko, Aleksandra Chalimoniuk.

Łukasz Mężyk