state of play: 03/06/2024

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Ruling party counts on a breakthrough in PiS, Wójcik in Krytyka: Every coalition has its Gowin. Currently, it's Hołownia

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MACRON ACTED CORRECTLY. PUTIN MUST BE TOLD LOUDLY WHAT HE FACES - STANISŁAW KOZIEJ IN GW: “Strategic signaling is one of the key elements of strategic deterrence. Meanwhile, the West is not using it at all. This makes Russia's deterrence flawed. It creates the impression that Russia is winning the Second Cold War against the West. (...) It is high time to remove all self-imposed restrictions that the West places on the delivery or use of already delivered weapons. Let us recall the initial limitations to non-lethal weapons, then tanks, aircraft, or range limitations for missiles, so as not to attack Russian territory. All these were and continue to be miscalculations that they might have any bearing on stopping Putin from escalating.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30765471,wojska-nato-w-ukrainie-trzeba-putinowi-mowic-glosno-co-mu.html -- REALISM TOWARDS RUSSIA COMES AT THE PRICE OF INCREASINGLY WIDER RIFTS BETWEEN THESE ELITES AND THEIR OWN SOVEREIGN - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “Yet, it would be unfair if we did not notice the process of change at the highest levels of power: more and more people are willing to concede the point on Russian matters to Tallinn, Kyiv, or Warsaw. However, one cannot help but make the bitter observation that this comes at the price of an ever-widening rift between these elites and their own sovereign.” -- THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN 1939 DID NOT REALLY WANT TO "DIE FOR GDAŃSK," SIMILARLY IN 2024 FEW IN THE EUROPEAN UNION WANT TO "DIE FOR DONBAS" - KUISZ FURTHER: “The majority of people in 1939 did not really want to "die for Gdańsk"; similarly, in 2024, few in the European Union want to "die for Donbas." What is more, after two years of war, many Poles share this sentiment. They do not want to take risks. In this twisted sense, perhaps the dream of generations has been realized in the 21st century, and we have finally become 100% Western.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-kto-dzis-nie-chce-umierac-za-donbas,nId,7371214 -- NO OPPOSITION CONSENSUS ON THE GOVERNMENT'S CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL REFORM PACKAGE. THE RULING PARTY COUNTS ON A BREAKTHROUGH IN PIS, AND THAT MAY TAKE TIME - MATEUSZ MIKOWSKI ON JEDYNKA RZ: “The politician from the ruling coalition, PSL club leader Krzysztof Paszyk, is not deterred by these announcements. – We are realists. A constitutional change is a process that will not be finalized in two or three weeks. It may turn out that in a few months, the necessary majority will emerge, due to various movements we are observing within today's opposition – he notes.” https://www.rp.pl/sady-i-trybunaly/art399437251-nie-ma-szans-na-szybki-reset-trybunalu-na-co-liczy-koalicja -- PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA MUST ANSWER THE QUESTION OF WHETHER HE WANTS TO GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS THE ONE WHO LEFT UNSPEAKABLE CHAOS IN THE COURTS AND TRIBUNALS, OR TO TAKE AN ACTIVE PART IN HEALING THE SITUATION AND TRY TO REACH AN AGREEMENT WITH ADAM BODNAR - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ. -- IT MAY ALSO TURN OUT TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY. THIS WILL HAPPEN IF THE PRESIDENT MAKES CALCULATIONS AND DECIDES IT'S WORTH TALKING - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “And Duda will go down in history as the patron of this chaos, from which nothing good for the state results. Then Minister Bodnar's proposal will turn out to be a trap for Duda. But it may also turn out to be an opportunity. This will happen if the president makes calculations and decides it's worth sitting down for talks, negotiating, gaining something, and participating in cleaning up this situation. And it could be a constructive accent to the end of his ten-year presidency. Everything actually depends on him. And on his advisors.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39944151-zmiany-w-trybunale-konstytucyjnym-pulapka-czy-szansa-dla-andrzeja-dudy -- ZGORZELSKI: A GOOD, WISE, AND PRUDENT DECISION BY HOŁOWNIA, WHO REMOVED A TOPIC DESERVING RESPECT FROM THE AGENDA OF POLITICAL DISPUTE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/03/06/ -- EVERY COALITION HAS ITS GOWIN. CURRENTLY, IT'S HOŁOWNIA - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Undoubtedly, the new Gowin is more Warsaw-oriented than Krakow-oriented, so he appears a bit more inclusive and less stern. (...) Like Gowin, Hołownia tries to play the part of a moderate progressive, walking wisely between the unreformable far-right and the emotionalized left. (...) Although Hołownia tries to be thoughtful and moderate on human rights, he is already radically principled when it comes to entrepreneurs' rights. Like Gowin, he is a staunch opponent of a realistic assessment of the health contribution for entrepreneurs as stipulated in the Polish Deal.” -- THE CURRENT INCARNATION OF JAROSŁAW GOWIN IS THUS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE, TIMES HAVE CHANGED, SOME THINGS ARE NO LONGER ACCEPTABLE - WÓJCIK FURTHER IN KRYTYKA: “The current incarnation of Jarosław Gowin is thus slightly more progressive; times have changed, some things are no longer acceptable, while it is in good taste to advocate for others. Undoubtedly, the new Gowin is more Warsaw-oriented than Krakow-oriented, so he appears a bit more inclusive and less stern. However, he is still the same free-market conservative who pretends to be concerned, but fundamentally stands guard over the social status quo. And he will defend it.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/kazda-koalicja-ma-swojego-gowina-obecnie-jest-nim-holownia/ -- HOŁOWNIA IS FREEZING ABORTION. AND HIS VOTERS EN MASSE WANT THIS LAW - MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “The results of the Ipsos poll for OKO.press and TOK FM leave no doubt – the voters of the ruling coalition, by a majority of 92%! (only 4% against), want a law legalizing abortion up to the 12th week. Within Third Way itself, it's as much as 89%. Hołownia is detaching himself from the electorate.” -- THE RESULTS WITHIN THE ELECTORATES ARE PARTICULARLY DEVASTATING FOR THE LEADERS OF THIRD WAY, AS MUCH AS 89% OF ITS VOTERS WANT A LAW ON ABORTION UP TO THE 12TH WEEK - CHRZCZONOWICZ FURTHER IN OKO.PRESS: “The results within the electorates are particularly devastating for the leaders of Third Way, who consistently declare that 'as people' and 'as MPs' they are against women's right to abortion, but believe that a referendum will absolve them of responsibility for the decision. As much as 89% of its voters want a law on abortion up to the 12th week (among them, 54% considered it an urgent matter). The results for the Left and Civic Coalition electorates are even higher, which is not surprising – it has been this way for a long time in our polls, and their parties have submitted bills liberalizing the 1993 law.” -- ONLY THE PIS ELECTORATE IS DECIDEDLY AGAINST THE LIBERALIZING LAW, BUT EVEN HERE IT IS WORTH NOTING THE 21% OF VOTERS WHO SAY "YES" - WRITES CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO: “Only the PiS electorate is decidedly against the liberalizing law, but even here it is worth noting the 21% of voters who say "yes." Among this group, there are also quite a few undecided – 12%. The conviction that abortion should be legal up to the 12th week also prevails among Confederation voters, which may be bad news for leaders who have included a ban in their program and present conservative stances themselves. In total, 48% are in favor of the law (including 25% who consider it urgent) and 39% are against (including 26% decidedly against).” https://oko.press/holownia-mrozi-aborcje-a-jego-wyborcy-chca-tej-ustawy -- IS MAGDALENA BIEJAT THE LAST HOPE FOR THE TROUBLED LEFT? HER RESULT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN WARSAW WILL SAY A LOT ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THIS FORMATION AND BIEJAT HERSELF - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Her independent start in the regional elections was forced by Tusk's decision, and no one here expects a great success. Warsaw, however, is where the hopes of left-wing politicians are focused. In October, the left-wing coalition had 13.45% of the votes in the Sejm elections here. And in the local elections, the conditions for the left are – as its activists assure – even better.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2247741,1,magdalena-biejat-ostatnia-nadzieja-przezywajacej-klopoty-lewicy-jej-wynik-bedzie-duzo-znaczyl.read -- PIS MAY WIN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS - MAREK MIGALSKI IN RZ: “The mobilization of electorates and the determination of leaders – may, though not necessarily, bring us a surprise in the European Parliament elections. But whether this will happen, we will be able to fully assess after the local government elections, because only then will the European campaign truly kick off. However, much indicates that it will be more difficult for the ruling coalition than taking power away from PiS in the regional assemblies where it previously held power.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39945401-marek-migalski-pis-moze-wygrac-wybory-do-parlamentu-europejskiego -- IN PIS, THERE IS A RACE FOR THE BEST POSITIONS FOR LEAN YEARS. THE PRZYŁĘBSKIS ALSO WANT THEM - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “It's also crowded in Greater Poland. The list leader could be MP Joanna Lichocka, although in the corridors some also associate her with Łódź. In PiS, one can hear about the European ambitions of Julia and Andrzej Przyłębski. In this duo, Julia has greater political weight – the President of the Constitutional Tribunal (the ruling camp questions her presidency due to the flawed election and the end of her term as TK President). Her husband's political career (especially the position of ambassador to Germany) is a reward for the TK judge for her loyalty to Nowogrodzka. Julia Przyłębska's nine-year term in the TK ends in December this year. The EP elections will be earlier – in June. Our interlocutors from the PiS camp indicate that it would be more rational for Prof. Andrzej Przyłębski to run. The problem, however, is that he is so unpopular in all electorates that he could only take a mandate as No. 1 on the list. The Przyłębskis are associated with Poznań and Warsaw, so someone with this surname could run in one of these two districts. What adds spice to the competition in Greater Poland for places on the PiS list is that previously No. 1 there was Prof. Zdzisław Krasnodębski – privately a friend of the Przyłębski family.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30767042,w-pis-trwa-wyscig-o-najlepsze-posady-na-chude-lata-malzenstwo.html -- FREE MEDIA, FREE MEDIA! WELL, UNLESS THEY CRITICIZE CIVIC PLATFORM - MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “Unfortunately, Minister Jan Grabiec is not helping. If it were some rank-and-file, inexperienced activist who doesn't understand politics much. But he is an experienced local government official and a recognized political scientist – I myself took classes with him at university, and it would be truly difficult for me to believe in his sudden incompetence. The only explanation I find is that, fully understanding this political gaffe, he is directing his online message simply to the hard electorate, the ardent fans of his party, who constantly demand an unwavering stance from him. And unfortunately, I don't know if this is more depressing than if it were simple incompetence. Because when even liberal politicians show tendencies towards illiberal attitudes just to please the hard electorate, it's a bit scary…” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39943801-michal-plocinski-wolne-media-wolne-media-no-chyba-ze-krytykuja-platforme-obywatelska -- 92ND BIRTH ANNIVERSARY OF PROFESSOR BRONISŁAW GEREMEK. -- FRAGMENT OF EWA MILEWICZ'S TEXT ABOUT BRONISŁAW GEREMEK FROM 2008: “When negotiations were ongoing regarding Premier Suchocka's government, I asked Geremek about their status. The professor remained silent, cleaning his pipe with great interest. After a moment, he said: please ask the next question. And so he continued cleaning his pipe in silence through several more questions. In the end, he said: madam editor, I enjoy answering the questions I ask myself the most.” -- ANOTHER FRAGMENT OF EWA MILEWICZ'S TEXT: “Geremek was not only about public affairs. It was visible, even on television screens – that he had a great weakness for certain women. He once spoke with a certain journalist, a beautiful woman, about Europe. That is, formally the conversation was about that topic. In reality, however, it wasn't Europe that was visible, but Geremek's fascination with the journalist. After that program, someone told Geremek that there should be a warning on the screen: 'Program about seduction. For ages 18 and over.' He laughed, but did not deny it.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,161389,23659612,polityk-historyk-obywatel-a-moze-uwodziciel.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Lis, Marek Ziółkowski, Piotr Marciniak, Beata Gosiewska.

Łukasz Mężyk