state of play: 01/17/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Janicki: Who Will Gain Political and Psychological Advantage is Being Weighed, Zoll: The Status of 3,000 Neo-Judges Can Be Regulated Together, the President Should Care

Łukasz Mężyk

-- GRABIEC ON THE ACT CONCERNING THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF THE JUDICIARY: IF THE PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS DO NOT VIOLATE THE ESSENCE OF THE CHANGE, THEY CAN BE DISCUSSED, BUT THERE IS NO ROOM FOR NEGOTIATIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/17 -- WHO WILL GAIN POLITICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE IS BEING WEIGHED - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The sharp escalation of the political conflict is not accidental. A decisive test of strength is underway, no less important than the breakthrough of October 15th. This is where the actual consumption of the election results is taking place; who will gain political and psychological advantage is being weighed. Possibly for years to come.” -- IT IS ABOUT THE PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECT, ABOUT MAINTAINING THE IMPRESSION THAT TUSK IS TEMPORARY, UNCERTAIN, NOT WORTH BETTING ON HIM AND TYING ONE'S CAREER TO HIM - JANICKI FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “It is about the psychological effect, about maintaining the impression that Tusk is temporary, uncertain, not worth betting on him and tying one's career to him. The coalition might quarrel over elections, over a presidential candidate, Tusk might flee to Brussels, etc. There is a hidden threat in this: remember that we can take revenge later and we are better at it than Tusk. This message is intended to influence officials, local government members, judges, prosecutors, security service personnel, military cadres, state and private businesses. So that they fear PiS even more, than they fear the new government. This kind of warning, it seems, is still effective in many cases, because Tusk is not vengeful 'by definition' like PiS.” -- PEOPLE ARE MEANT TO MISS THE ORDER OF PIŚ, WHICH WAS AS IT WAS, BUT ONE COULD GET USED TO IT - WRITES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Now PiS has struck with full force, not wanting to repeat the old mistake. It counts on people doubting the meaning and cost of the changes taking place, after all, there are again brawls in the Sejm, on the streets, in front of TVP buildings, near the detention center, etc. The impression should be created that the temporary government is the 'coalition of December 13th,' the 'coalition of revenge and chaos.' People are meant to miss the order of PiS, which was as it was, but one could get used to it. Purgatory is supposed to turn out worse than the old hell.” -- THANKS TO THE COMPLETE IGNORING OF THE OPINIONS OF 'NEUTRALISTS' AND 'DEPOLARIZERS,' TUSK BECAME PRIME MINISTER, AND ONLY BY CONTINUING TO DISREGARD THEM CAN HE RETAIN POWER - WRITES JANICKI: “Anyone who cannot withstand the pressure, who fears tension, has no chance in today's politics. It is worth repeating: it is, among other things, thanks to the complete disregard of the opinions of 'neutralists' and 'depolarizers' that Tusk became prime minister, and only by continuing to disregard them can he retain power. The future of the entire 'October 15th coalition' depends on this test of strength that is currently underway. The beginning of a government cannot be repeated; one cannot make a second first impression.” -- THE DANGER TO LIBERAL DEMOCRACY IN POLAND WILL LAST UNTIL PIŚ DROPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THE POLLS – LIKE SLD AFTER THE RYWIN AFFAIR – AND THE RIGHT REFORMS ITSELF IN A NEW CONFIGURATION - WRITES JANICKI: “The measures Tusk is taking to regain the democratic system would become justification for PiS to finally drown this democracy. All the legal loopholes that Tusk has now exploited would be filled with concrete (Kaczyński even announced a constitutional change 'under special rules'). Therefore, the danger to liberal democracy in Poland will last until PiŚ drops to 10 percent in the polls – like SLD after the Rywin affair – and the right reforms itself in a new configuration.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2241893,1,nerwowy-okres-przejsciowy-po-rzadach-pis.read -- IT WAS THE PRESIDENT WHO APPOINTED ALL THESE PEOPLE, CONTRIBUTING TO THE STATE'S CRISIS, YET HIS AMBITION WOULD NOT SUFFER EXCESSIVELY IF THEIR STATUS WERE FINALLY REGULATED IN A MANNER THAT RAISES NO DOUBT - PROF. ANDRZEJ ZOLL IN CONVERSATION WITH MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC AND MICHAŁ OKOŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “As I have already mentioned, I harbored some hopes for an agreement between the government and the president. I thought there was a chance for a sincere conversation regarding the necessary reforms of the justice system and repairing what has been destroyed over eight years. That the status of almost 3,000 neo-judges could be regulated together. Among them, about half are assessors just beginning their careers, so there would be no problem with them. Resolving the situation of other judges, promoted through an unconstitutional procedure, would also not be excessively complicated, as no one would remove them from the profession, but their appointments to a higher rank would be revoked, and several dozen, perhaps two hundred of the most controversial cases would go to disciplinary committees. It was the president who appointed all these people, contributing to the state's crisis, yet his ambition would not suffer excessively if their status were finally regulated in a manner that raises no doubt. The starting point is to fix the situation with the illegally established institution that submits candidates for judges to the president. It needs to be restored to a state consistent with the fundamental law.” -- JUDGES CANNOT OWE THEIR PROMOTION TO SOMEONE'S SUPPORT – THEY CANNOT BE INDEBTED TO ANYONE - ZOLL FURTHER: “The point is that judges should be neither pro-government nor anti-government. Of course, they can have and do have their views, but they cannot act under their influence. And they cannot owe their promotion to someone's support – they cannot be indebted to anyone.” -- IS IT POSSIBLE TO RESTORE ORDER IN THE SUPREME COURT AND THE TRIBUNAL? WITHOUT THE PRESIDENT? NO. IF HE TRULY CARES ABOUT THESE INSTITUTIONS, HE MUST STEP BACK AND COOPERATE WITH THE GOVERNMENT - PROF. ZOLL TELLS KĘSKRAWIEC AND OKOŃSKI IN TP: “ – It should be added that Andrzej Duda also broke the principles of the Constitution when appointing the President of the Tribunal. When Rzepliński's term ended, the president appointed Ms. Julia Przyłębska as acting president, although such a position was not foreseen in the Constitutional Tribunal. According to the law, the vice-president, Stanisław Biernat, was supposed to fulfill these duties. - Can all these changes be reversed? Restore order in the Supreme Court and the Tribunal? - Without the president? No. If he truly cares about these institutions, he must step back and cooperate with the government.” -- SCRAPE THE FUNDS FOR ITS OPERATION, LEAVE ONLY MINIMAL FUNDS FOR ADMINISTRATION – AND FACILITATE JUDGES' RETIREMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR RESIGNATION - ZOLL SAYS IN TP: “I don't know how to proceed with the Chancellery of the President, but a similar move would be possible with the Constitutional Tribunal. Scrape the funds for its operation, leave only minimal funds for administration – and facilitate judges' retirement in exchange for resignation.” -- THE DUAL-APPOINTED INDIVIDUALS IN THE TRIBUNAL, APPOINTED BY A RESOLUTION OF THE SEJM CONTROLLED BY PIŚ, CAN BE REMOVED BY A RESOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SEJM - CLAIMS PROF. ZOLL - FRAGMENT OF KĘSKRAWIEC AND OKOŃSKI'S CONVERSATION: “- Sometimes legal problems can be resolved by political means. The dual-appointed individuals in the Tribunal, appointed by a resolution of the Sejm controlled by PiŚ, can be removed by a resolution of the current Sejm. - The President might not want to administer the oath to them... One can send him the oath by registered mail, with a notarized signature. The law stipulates that the president must administer the oath to a judge. This does not necessarily have to take place in person. I do not suspect that the Chancellery would refuse to accept the delivery.” -- HE WON'T BE WELCOME AT JAGELLONIAN UNIVERSITY ANYWAY - ZOLL ON THE PRESIDENT: “He may try, but he will quickly be summoned to the disciplinary committee spokesperson for breaking his doctoral oath and various other serious sins against the rule of law that are unbecoming of an academic. He will certainly not be welcome at Jagiellonian University.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/andrzej-zoll-prezydent-musi-sie-cofnac-185926?check_logged_in=1 -- RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIONS HAVE STALLED ON CONSOLIDATED DEFENSE - PIOTR LEWANDOWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “The weakening of the offensive actions' momentum is linked not only to difficult weather conditions – very low temperatures on some sections of the front, periodic thaws on others – but also to significant Russian losses. Recent publications from open sources (OSINT) based on the analysis of photographic and video materials indicate that the aggressor lost several hundred combat vehicles and artillery systems alone in the area of fighting near Krynyky in the Kherson region and near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. Furthermore, Russian aviation, supporting the offensive primarily with glide bombs, is forced to limit its activity both due to the weather and the surprising actions of Ukrainian air defense.” https://oko.press/blamaz-rosyjskich-sil-powietrznych-sytuacja-na-froncie -- WHILE POLISH POLITICIANS ARE CLASHING, MUCH MORE IMPORTANT EVENTS FOR US ARE UNFOLDING IN THE WORLD - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “While Polish politicians are clashing, much more important events for us are unfolding in the world. In Iowa, Donald Trump has thoroughly crushed his opponents in the Republican Party primaries. A politician who speaks warmly about talks with Putin is heading for power. The same applies to national populists in Western Europe. Their solidarity with our part of the world will be minimal or non-existent. The main point of their agenda is national egoism. Furthermore, Europe is suffering from economic stagnation. Our main partner, Germany, is in recession, which will ultimately backfire on our country. And serious intellectuals are predicting the fall of the West.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-druga-strona-nieuchronnego-upadku-zachodu,nId,7272840 -- BIRTHDAYS: Rafał Trzaskowski (52), Jan F. Libicki, Otylia Trzaskalska-Nuebel.

Łukasz Mężyk