state of play: 10/12/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Bendyk: Most Poles Don't Share the Opinion of 'Most Important Elections Since 1989', Wielowieyska: What is a Tobacco Company Director Doing at a Confederation Meeting?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 80 DAYS UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR!

-- MOST INTERESTING STATEMENT OF THE MORNING: Schetyna: It's a one-man campaign, that was the decision of the strategists and Tusk himself - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/12/

-- A DIRECTOR OF A TOBACCO COMPANY, THE HEAD OF A POLLING FIRM, A CONFEDERATION MP, AND A LEADER OF NATIONALISTS VISITED WIPLERS' COMPANY. I ASKED THEM WHAT FOR - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Among them were Przemysław Wipler, owner of Five Rand and Confederation candidate for MP in Toruń; Roman Jamiołkowski, Director of External and Legal Relations for Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia at British American Tobacco; Marcin Duma – president of the IBRIS polling firm, also affiliated with another firm, United Survey; these companies often prepare party preference surveys for Onet, 'Rzeczpospolita', RMF FM, and 'Dziennik Gazeta Prawna'. In addition, Confederation MP Stanisław Tyszka, formerly of Kukiz'15, and Confederation activists Witold Tumanowicz and Krzysztof Tuduj, deputy leader of the National Movement, attended the meeting. Przemysław Wipler's partner, Michał Krzymowski, also appeared. I asked the participants of this meeting what exactly it concerned and what agreements were reached. However, no one answered this question. They also did not answer their phones, nor did they respond to SMS messages and emails. Regarding Director Jamiołkowski, the question was forwarded to Joanna Trzaska-Wieczorek from BAT. From my information, it was a political meeting combined with a presentation of research concerning Confederation.”

-- WHO IS FINANCING THESE SURVEYS AND WHETHER THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE COMMITTEE'S FINANCIAL REPORT. AND THE QUESTION OF WHAT ROLE THE COMPANY DIRECTOR PLAYED IN THIS MEETING - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Lobbying is a natural part of the legislative process, provided it is open and transparent. There is nothing strange about Marcin Duma meeting with representatives of a party; perhaps he conducts various surveys for them. This is a normal situation; many research firms accept such orders from election committees. The question, however, is who is financing these surveys and whether this will be included in the committee's financial report. And the question of what role the company director played in this meeting.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30282004,do-firmy-wiplera-przyjechali-dyrektor-koncernu-tytoniowego.html

-- IT'S INTERESTING THAT THE AWARENESS THAT THE MAJORITY OF POLES DO NOT SHARE THE OPINION ABOUT THE 'MOST IMPORTANT ELECTIONS SINCE 1989' HAS NOT REACHED MANY MEDIA CIRCLES AND PROBABLY POLITICIANS TOO - EDWIN BENDYK, PRESIDENT OF THE BATORY FOUNDATION IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ OKOŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “It's interesting that the awareness that the majority of Poles are not interested in the infighting they are engaged in, and especially that they do not share the opinion about the 'most important elections since 1989', has not penetrated many media circles and, I suspect, politicians as well. As harsh as it may sound, many people do not consider who governs them to be a key problem in their lives, and what's more, they are increasingly tired of polarization.”

-- TUSK IS PLAYING THE POLARIZATION CARD BECAUSE HE CAN'T REALLY PLAY ANOTHER ONE - BENDYK TELLS OKOŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Tusk is playing the polarization card because he can't really play another one. He knows, for example, that undecided voters are tired of handouts and would gladly support a party that presented a program for rationalizing social transfers. But if Tusk announced something like that, PiS would cry foul: 'They want to take it away from you!'. Unfortunately, this is how most discussions about what should be the core of politics end.”

-- OUR RESEARCH SHOWS THAT POLES ARE READY FOR A CHANGE OF POWER, BUT MANY DO NOT WANT TO VOTE FOR OPPOSITION PARTIES BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE THEY ARE NOT AN ALTERNATIVE - BENDYK TELLS OKOŃSKI: “Our research indicates that Poles are ready for a change of government, but many do not want to vote for opposition parties because they believe they are not an alternative. That they won't handle the problem mentioned first by all voters, and particularly by undecided ones: high prices. Polls suggest that PiS is considered a party that handles the economy better, because it maintained GDP growth, provided the 500+ program, and raised salaries.”

-- THERE IS ALSO SOMETHING OPTIMISTIC: WE ARE FACING THE FIRST ELECTIONS IN A LONG TIME WHERE ONE CAN VOTE NON-STRATEGICALLY WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE - BENDYK CONTINUES WITH OKOŃSKI IN TYGODNIK: “But recent polls also show something optimistic: we are facing the first elections in a long time where one can vote non-strategically with a clear conscience. Since both Lewica and Trzecia Droga will cross the threshold, those who have their hearts on the left and those who are more conservative can support someone who is closest to them. Which, incidentally, means more people might go to vote because they have someone to vote for.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/edwin-bendyk-polska-jest-krajem-ludzi-zmeczonych-184881

-- DUDA HELPED THE GOVERNMENT OVERCOME THE CRISIS IN THE ARMY - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW REPORTS THE WORDS OF A PIS POLITICIAN: “He points to the actions of President Andrzej Duda, who helped the government overcome the crisis. - He supported the candidates nominated by Błaszczak. Perhaps the departing generals expected this to be a hot topic for a few days, but we dealt with it in 24 hours, we acted swiftly - assures a politician from the PiS party headquarters at Nowogrodzka Street in Warsaw.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30288524,pis-dymisjami-w-wojsku-sie-nie-przejmuje.html

-- I WAS NEVER DONALD TUSK'S ADVISOR. WE WERE NEVER ON FIRST-NAME TERMS - PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI TELLS KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “- Mr. Tusk told two lies in one sentence. Firstly, we were never on first-name terms, and secondly, I was never his advisor. Two lies in one short sentence. Why doesn't that surprise me. And the sentence: 'when you asked me for a job' – I leave it for our readers to judge. I had the job of bank president then – an international career ahead of me, so it's really not clear whether to laugh or cry at such words. Precisely – until November or December 2011, less than two years – around that time I last appeared at the Council. I was a member of the Economic Council, which Donald Tusk never, or almost never, attended. As far as I remember, he appeared, mind you, once, when I was there, which is easy to verify. So imagine what my 'advising' could have looked like. I repeat, I was never his advisor, I was a member of the Economic Council. I can also add that it is indeed a shame that he did not attend many interesting discussions back then, because we talked, among other things, about tightening the tax system, as the VAT gap was very evident even then.”

-- THE BULGARIAN SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS ONE ELECTION AFTER ANOTHER, BECAUSE OF A DISPUTED OPPOSITION, AN OPPOSITION OF CHAOS, AN OPPOSITION WARRING WITH THE PRESIDENT - MORAWIECKI CONTINUES WITH BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “One where either Law and Justice wins the elections and has an independent majority, and then we have relative peace, security, and the continuation of various good projects, or the Bulgarian scenario is possible. This means one election after another, because a divided opposition, an opposition of chaos, an opposition warring with the president will bring nothing good to Poland. We will simply face permanent conflict between the opposition and the president and demolition in state institutions.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2023/news-premier-mateusz-morawiecki-po-wyborach-grozi-nam-scenariusz-,nId,7081167

-- HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID CLEARLY: TUSK DID NOT SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY HE WAS GIVEN - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI: “However, it must be said clearly: Tusk did not seize the opportunity he was given. I was particularly irritated by Kaczyński's invitation to another debate, which will not happen anyway; we all know that. One can point out an opponent's refusal to talk once, but after the sixth time, it becomes a caricature. Bosak coped surprisingly well in the first part of the debate; he seemed authentic and reasoned, but at the end, he read his message from a paper. Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus moved away from her anti-clerical image and emphasized the social program of Nowa Lewica. She also took advantage of being the only woman there. Morawiecki's defeat is obvious; he presented acting at the level of a school play. The Prime Minister does not excel at undermining opponents; he is a bank director, not a born debater.”
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30284766,mozliwe-powyborcze-scenariusze-w-jednym-z-nich-pis-sie-rozpada.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Legutko, Cezary Olejniczak, Robert Wardzała.

Łukasz Mężyk