-- PLAGUED BY A DEEP ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CRISIS, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY IS NO LONGER ABLE TO AGREE WITH FRANCE ON ALMOST ANYTHING - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “However, the Elysee Palace's plan is based on the development of nuclear energy, which the German Greens oppose. The French want this fuel, on par with wind or solar energy, to be recognized as an ecological source of power. Scholz does not want to hear about this also because he fears competition on the single market from French enterprises benefiting from cheaper electricity.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39242251-niemcy-nie-moga-porozumiec-sie-z-francja-i-paralizuja-unie-europejska -- WE ASSUME THE ALLOWABLE ERROR IS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS - PAWEŁ PRĘDKA, HEAD OF IPSOS EXIT POLL FOR OCTOBER 15TH, IN CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “- We will provide television stations with our electoral estimates at 8:45 PM. This includes data from 8:30 PM. - In the 2003 accession referendum, liberal voters showed up at polling stations at the last minute. - Yes, but that was in June. People were returning from weekends to manage to vote. We do not expect a similar effect in the autumn. Voters in the last half-hour will not change the entire picture. - How accurate will the results you provide at 9 PM be? - We assume that the allowable error is 2 percentage points.” -- MEANWHILE, A MEASUREMENT ERROR OF EVEN ONE PERCENTAGE POINT CAN BE FUNDAMENTALLY IMPORTANT HERE WITH THE THIRD WAY - PRĘDKA FROM IPSOS CONTINUES TO PACEWICZ IN A CONVERSATION ABOUT THE EXIT POLL: “From what we have observed so far, the electorate of Konfederacja, and previously the parties Korwin or Kukiz-15, do not hide their preferences. They are as proud of them as other voters are. Of course, if it turns out, for example, that there are particularly many refusals among young men living in cities, it would probably mean the necessity of 'correcting' the result in favor of Konfederacja, because that is the electorate of this party. The mystery is rather the Third Way, because the PSL electorate has always been characterized by a higher percentage of refusals, and in addition, we have a mixture of its electorate with that of Poland 2050, which is debuting in elections. Meanwhile, a measurement error of even one percentage point can be fundamentally important here.” -- TVN DID NOT WANT REFERENDUM ESTIMATES FROM IPSOS: “The offer to count turnout and provide answers to four referendum questions went to all three stations. One was not interested, two were. The decision rests with the client. The referendum questions will be on a single A4 sheet along with the personal details form, separate from the ballot where the respondent marks which party they chose.” https://oko.press/czy-exit-poll-powie-prawde-o-wyniku-wyborow -- AFTER THE DEBATE, A PIS ADVERTISEMENT APPEARED - INCLUDING ON ONET AND THE TVN24 PORTAL WEBSITE: “It is interesting that PiS is apparently using location targeting through Google ads to place announcements about Donald Tusk's 'defeat' in the electoral debate on a pro-opposition television service. The advertisement uses the website's style and looks almost like a program announcement.” https://x.com/StanleySBill/status/1711490716340310387?s=20 -- TODAY AT THE PRESIDENTIAL SECURITY COUNCIL (BBN), A MEETING OF THE PRESIDENT WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTERS ON THE CONSEQUENCES FOR POLAND OF THE CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, SZYDŁO ON TOUR, TUSK IN LODZ - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/10/ -- BUSINESS INSIDER WRITES ABOUT THE GOLDEN VASE FROM THE PRIME MINISTER OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR TUSK, MENTIONED BY MORAWIECKI IN THE DEBATE: “The mentioned vessel was detailed in the list of gifts submitted to the National Electoral Commission (PKW), which the incumbent prime minister received between February 24, 2010, and April 16, 2010. The 'impressive vase' is one of seven items on the list, and the only one whose value may exceed half of the minimum wage. The document also indicates that during meetings with the Prime Minister of Russia, Tusk also received a 'silver-colored plate with gilding' and a 'metal icon in silver and gold color.'” https://businessinsider.com.pl/polityka/morawiecki-pytal-tuska-o-wazon-oto-dokument-wszystko-jest-jawne/smemj4c -- TUSK HAD A PERFORMANCE FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI WAS STRANGELY AGGRESSIVE - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Curious, long, propaganda questions, a strangely aggressive Prime Minister Morawiecki, and a perfectly prepared Szymon Hołownia – these are the main threads of the TVP debate. Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus from Lewica performed well. Donald Tusk delivered a performance far below expectations.” -- PARADOXICALLY, THE FACT THAT THE LEADER OF CIVIC PLATFORM PERFORMED SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW EXPECTATIONS MAY, ON BALANCE, HELP THE OPPOSITION - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES: “Paradoxically, the fact that the leader of Civic Platform performed significantly below expectations may, on balance, help the opposition by strengthening the ratings of Third Way and Lewica, mainly in relation to Konfederacja, and this is one of the keys to gaining a majority.” -- SCHEURING-WIELGUS WITHSTOOD THE PRESSURE AND DELIVERED A VERY GOOD PERFORMANCE - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES: “Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus from Lewica won in the category: 'Performance above expectations.' She came to the debate burdened by the pressure from some of the electorate who preferred MP Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk in the debate (watch the latest interview with her conducted by Dominika Sitnicka and Agata Szczęśniak) and the fear of some observers that her image as an anti-clerical focused on cultural issues would alienate TVP viewers. The opposite happened. Scheuring-Wielgus withstood the pressure and delivered a very good performance.” -- EVEN THE GREATEST CRITIC OF POLAND 2050'S LEADER MUST ADMIT. HE WAS EXCELLENTLY PREPARED, EFFICIENT, AND KNEW WHAT HE WANTED TO SAY - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES IN OKO: “Even the greatest critic of the leader of Poland 2050 must admit this. He was excellently prepared, efficient, and knew what he wanted to say from the first word to the last period, he responded with reflexes, weaving in many substantive points into his answers. He also shed two characteristics during the debate that had recently weakened his performances: an excessive number of metaphors and a characteristic smugness – he was natural and convincing.” https://oko.press/debata-tvp-holownia-bezapelacyjnie-najlepszy -- TUSK CLEARLY THOUGHT HIS MERE "MAJESTY" WOULD DAZZLE VOTERS. BUT IT DIDN'T. IT TURNED OUT THAT THE KO LEADER LIVES IN A MEDIA AND SOCIAL BUBBLE - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “It is Tusk who lives in a bubble, and the debate confirmed this in its entirety. He was convinced that his mere majesty would dazzle the audience. But there is no longer any majesty. There is a deep awareness of what he did to Poland during his rule, and a conviction that PiS rule has brought Poland very good change and great successes. The debate was won by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who managed to fight against four candidates. Tusk lost, performing the weakest of the entire field. The weakest!” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/666015-tusk-wyraznie-sadzil-ze-sam-jego-majestat-olsni-wyborcow -- THE WHOLE OF POLAND SAW HOW ARCHAIC AND FEEBLE HE IS. THIS IMPRESSION WILL BE HARD TO ERASE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Overall, the debate was without a major breakthrough in any direction, but with a few strong points gained by Mateusz Morawiecki for PiS and an impression left by Donald Tusk that he is an archaic politician, unconvincingly repeating old tricks.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/665979-porazka-tuska-to-wrazenie-trudno-bedzie-zatrzec -- ALTHOUGH TUSK TRIED TO BE CHARMING, AS HE WAS YEARS AGO, HE ALSO SEEMED EXTREMELY TENSE - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Although Tusk tried to be charming, as he was years ago, he also seemed extremely tense. He did not pay as much attention to Mateusz Morawiecki as Morawiecki did to him, but the prime minister was still his main point of reference. He reminded him not only that he once sought a job from him but also of his not-so-flattering, yet widely known, nickname 'Pinocchio.'” -- AS FOR THE PROGRAMS OF THE COMPETING PARTIES, THE BOLIDES RACED TOO FAST FOR ANYONE TO REMEMBER ANYTHING - CHRABOTA CONTINUES IN RZ: “Aversion, sarcasm, and malice are, moreover, the greatest contribution of both politicians to the debate, and this will probably be best remembered. As for the programs of the competing parties, the bolides sped by too quickly for anyone to remember anything. To sum up; what was missing above all was solemnity, which builds the reputation, authority, and credibility of politics. There was no room for it in this debate. After watching it, we are all at a loss.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39235291-boguslaw-chrabota-sondaz-przed-debata-w-tvp-zly-dla-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-donald-tusk-moze-pozyskac-dodatkowe-punkty -- ALTHOUGH TUSK REPEATEDLY ASKED MORAWIECKI "WHY ARE YOU SO NERVOUS?", IT WAS EVIDENT THAT THE LEADER OF PO WAS OVERCOME BY NERVES - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Although Tusk repeatedly asked Morawiecki 'why are you so nervous?', it was evident that nerves got the better of the PO leader. He wasted the answer to the first question, clearly felt uncomfortable with the formula of one-minute answers, and was unable to effectively use his time to inform the public about the government's failures and lies. When asked about national defense, which included the lie that KO planned to base defense on the Vistula River and surrender half of Poland to the Russians, he did not counter it and did not attack the PiS government for using relatively recent defense plans for political struggle – which would have been an obvious move.” -- ALL THREE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE SMALLER COMMITTEES MANAGED TO BREAK AWAY FROM THIS DISPUTE AND PRESENT THEIR PROPOSALS - MAJMUREK CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “All three representatives of the smaller committees managed to break away from this dispute and present their proposals. Hołownia performed best in this regard. His television experience showed; the leader of Poland 2050 adapted perfectly to the one-minute answer format, was relaxed, calm, came to win, and won.” -- TUSK ACHIEVED HIS GOALS BY ACCEPTING THE DEBATE CHALLENGE ON HOSTILE TERRITORY, BUT HIS PERFORMANCE WILL NOT BE A GAMECHANGER, RATHER A DISAPPOINTMENT - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “Tusk achieved his goals by accepting the debate challenge on hostile territory, but his performance will not be a gamechanger; it rather fell short of expectations. Morawiecki, with his obsessive attacks on Tusk, will convince no one outside of the party's hard core, whom he doesn't need to convince. Scheuring-Wielgus, Bosak, and Hołownia may gain something. It's hard to say how much, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hołownia's performance on TVP helps his party achieve a double-digit result, or even third place in the elections.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/debata-przedwyborcza-tvp-kto-wygral-scheuring-wielgus-tusk-holownia/ -- TEXTS THAT QUICKLY BECAME OUTDATED: 1. DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA on Saturday: “Tusk will knock out Morawiecki because Kaczyński is afraid. Wielowieyska summarizes the campaign.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30272493,tusk-znokautuje-morawieckiego-bo-kaczynski-sie-boi-wielowieyska.html 2. BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA also on Saturday: “Donald Tusk can win quadruple in the TVP debate.” https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39233051-donald-tusk-w-debacie-w-tvp-moze-wygrac-poczwornie