state of play: 09/24/2020

THE STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski on Solidarna Polska needing to play in its own league, Flis on how many wouldn't defend Ziobro in a trial, 300: TV politics and Kaczyński's politics are two different worlds

Łukasz Mężyk

-- JUST LIKE LUKASHENKO, COWARDS AND CHEATS ACT, NOT SAVIORS OF THE NATION - JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The dictator has made a move that contradicts the image of a strong man he wishes to project in the eyes of Belarusians. Because in secret, it is cowards and cheats who act, not saviors of the nation. But he no longer cares about his image, as he is one of the few who knows the election results, and knows that society is no longer concerned with his image, but only with removing him from power. This is a preemptive move. The inauguration took place much earlier than planned. For us, for the West, this means one thing – we can no longer engage in our favorite diplomatic game: 'what is put off may be lost,' that the Belarusians will tire of protesting against the Belarusian dictator, and Western public opinion will tire of the Belarusian issue.” -- THE EU CANNOT DELAY WITH STRICT SANCTIONS AND GENEROUS SUPPORT FOR THE PERSECUTED - CONTINUES HASZCZYŃSKI: “Some Western countries stopped recognizing Bashar al-Assad as the President of Syria eight years ago, and recognized a Syrian opposition organization as the legitimate representative, the name of which I suspect only Arabists remember now. And Assad is still in power; he won the war. In Venezuela, we do not recognize Nicolás Maduro, but Juan Guaidó – it was his parliament that elected him as its leader, holding the highest office until free general elections. Did Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the majority of votes on August 9? We are not sure, because we do not have access to the protocols that a terrified Lukashenko was reviewing. We know that he did not win the majority. There is a vacancy in Minsk. It should be filled by a leader of the transitional period, and then by a leader elected in free elections. For the transitional period not to be a pipe dream, the EU must not delay with strict sanctions against the regime and generous support for the persecuted.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/309239892-Jerzy-Haszczynski-Zachod-juz-nie-moze-sie-ociagac.html -- THE EU'S FESTIVAL OF INCOMPETENCE - ANDRZEJ KUBLIK IN GW: “Indeed, the EU has so far only reacted with verbal protests, the effect of which resembles throwing cotton balls at the Lukashenko regime, supported by Putin's Russia.” -- UNLESS BLOCKING SANCTIONS BENEFITS BERLIN… - CONTINUES KUBIK: “According to the newspaper 'Le Monde,' French President Emmanuel Macron was reportedly told by Putin that perhaps Navalny himself took Novichok. And Germany, currently leading the EU, is not reacting to all of this. It is also difficult to understand that Germany – Europe's largest economic power – has failed to persuade tiny Cyprus to accept symbolic sanctions against Lukashenko's officials. Unless it serves Berlin's interests.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,26330536,lukaszence-i-putinowi-sie-upieklo-trwa-spektakl-niemocy-ue.html -- DESPITE DIFFERENCES, EVERYONE AGREES THAT RUSSIA IS A THREAT - DARIUSZ KARŁOWICZ IN TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA: “I was watching this spectacle of reluctance and resentment, hidden admiration and undisguised hatred, and I recalled everything I had read in the Polish press and online, heard on our radio and seen on all our televisions during those same days. All these complaints, quarrels, and disputes about which policy is better and which is useless seemed insignificant. Because even if we are doing something wrong, even if we could do more, in Moscow's eyes all differences – so important to us, between Donald Tusk and Mateusz Morawiecki, between the government and the opposition – vanish and become irrelevant. For them, only our lasting, continuous, and determined disposition to resist Russia matters. Because regardless of how much divides the domestic realists preaching national egoism from the prometheans proclaiming the old slogan 'for your freedom and ours,' both agree that Russia is a threat. The rest is just a matter of tactics.” https://teologiapolityczna.pl/dariusz-gawin-soft-power-felieton-1 -- THE SECRET OF AN INTERVIEW FROM 15 YEARS AGO, THE REAL POLITICS OF THE PIS CHAIRMAN, AND WHAT IS SEEN IN THE MEDIA ARE TWO DIFFERENT THINGS - ANALYSIS BY 300POLITYKA: “For what political purpose would Jarosław Kaczyński aim to blow up the government's parliamentary majority, with a prime minister he carefully selected at its head? For none. The PiS chairman's goal is the irreversibility of changes, the preparation for another electoral victory, and a new construction of the right that will lead to it. Since he decisively rejected Solidarna Polska's accession to PiS, it means he does not see the future of his formation in Ziobro's circle. With all its consequences. But why would he overturn the majority arrangement for attractive media headlines?” -- KACZYŃSKI DOES NOT WATCH POLITICS ON TELEVISION: “Jarosław Kaczyński practically does not watch politics on television. He is not even fully interested in it. Perhaps except for some tidbits, like the recent blustering of young coalition politicians. It was meant to evoke a feeling between embarrassment ('disgust' – as Kaczyński says) and irritation. When something needs to be cut short, to give a certain message the appropriate dimension, he will give an interview or a short statement. Sometimes – always very seriously and old-fashionedly treating party structures – in the form of an apostolic letter to his party members, later conveyed to the media. Politics at the pace of 'who arrived where, and when, and what are the consequences' and Jarosław Kaczyński are two separate worlds.” -- MORAWIECKI IS CLOSEST TO THE VISION OF PREMIERSHIP KACZYŃSKI SPOKE OF IN 2006: “Jarosław Kaczyński has repeatedly shown that he is capable of great flexibility, but with a calculation that his political goals remain secure. Kaczyński's goal, which he himself has often spoken about, is to ensure a certain, as lasting as possible, irreversibility of changes after 2015. To achieve this, he recognized the need for an 'encompassing' prime ministership, a vision he articulated back in 2006 in a conversation with Zaremba and Karnowski. And Morawiecki's abilities, diligence, and personality best fit this vision.” https://300polityka.pl/news/2020/09/24/tajemnica-wywiadu-sprzed-15-lat-prawdziwa-polityka-prezesa-pis-i-to-co-widac-w-mediach-to-dwie-rozne-sprawy/ -- KACZYŃSKI LIMITS THE AUTONOMY OF A GROUP THAT MUST PLAY IN A LEAGUE APPROPRIATE TO ITS SIZE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The first goal is to curb the ambitions and limit the autonomy of the circle of ambitious 30, 40, and 50-year-olds gathered around Zbigniew Ziobro. Solidarna Polska has been reminded that, although it is an independent group, it must recognize the ideological and practical leadership of Law and Justice, and it must play in a league appropriate to its size. Despite various smokescreens, this condition has been accepted. But Solidarna Polska can also speak of a certain success – they endured a stronger clash than what had previously broken PiS's second coalition partner; they did not scatter.” -- THE POLITICAL WEIGHT OF THE GOVERNMENT IS INCREASING - CONTINUES KARNOWSKI: “The second goal is such a change in the structure of the Council of Ministers that will significantly increase its political weight. One could say that a super-government is being formed, capable of overcoming impossibilities and blockades. Something that was often talked about after 1989, but no one managed to create it. This effect will be achieved by both the radical reduction in the number of ministers (talk of 12 large ministries) and the seriously considered appointment of Jarosław Kaczyński as Deputy Prime Minister overseeing the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of National Defence, and the Ministry of the Interior.” -- SWIFT RESOLUTION OF DISPUTES COMBINED WITH MORAWIECKI'S STRONG POSITION - CONTINUES KARNOWSKI: “If this were to materialize, we could also talk about incorporating a mechanism into the government structure that would allow for the swift resolution of internal disputes – with the political authority of the PiS chairman. This, in turn, could significantly increase the effectiveness of governance, which I list as the third goal, but considering the public interest, it is the most important. Combined with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's strong position, this could yield very good results.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/518957-z-chaosu-wylania-sie-prawdziwy-cel-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego -- THE DOG HAS REGAINED CONTROL OF ITS TAIL - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Who won this war? Has the dog regained control of its tail? For now, yes. Minister Ziobro's skirmishers have been driven into formation (and not the first rank) and have lost face – primarily in the eyes of their own voters. And the chairman may have the illusion of controlling the situation. But what began with this crisis will not die. The hatred between PiS and SP activists in the regions and municipalities will remain. And Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki must be most wary of the growing tensions within all three parties. The chairman's support will be of no use to him if the efficient voting machine repeatedly falters. Who lost, who won – we will find out, among other things, from specific solutions regarding the so-called COVID law or impunity. Will Ziobro receive another stripe on his epaulets for stopping the government's impulses? Or will it turn out that he yielded and obediently raises his hand, which seems to be on a string?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/309239894-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Czy-pies-odzyska-kontrole-nad-ogonem.html -- RADOSŁAW GRUCA WRITES IN OKO THAT IN PIS THERE IS A SUSPICION THAT THE ZIOBRISTS WERE PLAYING FOR DUDU'S DEFEAT SO THAT THE EVENTUAL RESPONSIBILITY WOULD FALL ON MORAWIECKI: “TVP was already preparing to broadcast an address by Sejm Marshal Elżbieta Witek, who was to announce the final election date. The agreement for the elections not to take place was negotiated by Chairman Kaczyński and Jarosław Gowin. Both also stood by Morawiecki. 'It was Solidarna Polska that promoted the thesis that if the elections do not take place now, Andrzej Duda will suffer a defeat. When the date was postponed, they stopped helping in the campaign, so that full responsibility for any failure would fall on Morawiecki' – one of the president's election campaign staff told us. At the same time, the Presidential Palace is convinced that Ziobro was behind the leak to the media about Duda shortening the sentence of a man convicted of pedophilia. And the risky introduction of themes of a war with the fictional 'LGBT ideology' and the lack of any gestures towards the liberal center in the campaign, the Ziobrists are trying to present as a triumph of their concept.” -- GRUCA ON THE ROLE OF THE SMOLENSK INVESTIGATION IN KACZYŃSKI'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS ZIOBRO: “Ziobro, whose prosecution questioned Macierewicz's theories, actually closed this important thread for the history of the United Right a week ago. This decided that Solidarna Polska must be dealt with more harshly than ever before. 'The chairman does not live on the internet. He doesn't follow all the events that the media discuss for several days and then forget about them. He doesn't notice many storms at all, or considers them insignificant. He focuses on key events, and for him, there are no more important matters than the death of his brother, President Lech Kaczyński' – one person from the chairman's close circle at Nowogrodzka tells us.” https://oko.press/ujawniamy-o-co-naprawde-chodzi-w-konflikcie-ziobro-kaczynski-awanture-wywolal-smolensk/ -- ONE DOES NOT TRIP OVER MOUNTAINS, BUT OVER MOLEHILLS - JAROSŁAW FLIS TELLS MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA HOW GOWIN AND ZIOBRO ARE USEFUL TO PIS ON THE LISTS: “PiS is threatened with the depletion of a resource, which may not be large, but is sufficient for defeat. As Confucius said, one does not trip over mountains, but over molehills. The significance of such molehills is also shown by 2011: if not for the then two percent of Kowal's Polska Jest Najważniejsza formation, the PO-PSL coalition would not have had a sufficient majority. Donald Tusk's entire narrative that this was the first government so appreciated by voters would have collapsed. The left would have had to be invited, and then PSL would have become redundant and fallen into PiS's arms in 2015. Kaczyński would have followed Orban's path, who devoured the party of small farmers…” -- THEY ONLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO JOIN COMPETITORS - FLIS ON THE SMALL COALITION PARTIES: “Today, there is no indication of this, as 5 percent is really far away. Possibly, if something significant were to collapse within PiS, they would have the potential, as they could be a center of condensation for new forces. Today, however, they have the potential to join competitors. And they are an indicator of whether a large party is doing well or badly – because if it's doing well, such players tend to join, rather than tinkering with a new vessel like Palikot and Kowal in 2011.” -- ZIOBRO IS A REAL PROBLEM DUE TO THE HOPELESS ROWS HE CAUSED - CONTINUES FLIS: “Ziobro is a really powerful problem for the United Right camp. All his initiatives ended in hopeless rows. The case of Deputy Minister Piebiak allows for only two explanations: that his boss is an idiot or a criminal, though both are not mutually exclusive. Because if a high-ranking official of the ministry responsible for justice reform creates a secret group that communicates on a messenger and releases secret materials to the media to slander other judges, simply because they are political opponents – it is simply beyond comprehension.” -- IF THERE WERE A TRIAL, MANY WOULD NOT DEFEND ZIOBRO - CONTINUES FLIS: “In addition, there are all his games with Morawiecki – many people in PiS dislike the prime minister, but they don't constantly think about how to oust him. Ziobro cannot come to terms with the prospect of being at most number two. He cannot get along with the head of government, likely some personal needs, aspirations, and limitations are at play here… In any case, he is perceived in his own camp as a troublemaker. Using metaphors from our imaginations of 17th-century Polish history, the idea of dismantling him with sabers might have appeared more than once. And if a trial were to occur, many would not stand in his defense.” -- KACZYŃSKI AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER HAS MANY ADVANTAGES, LACKS THE DISADVANTAGES OF KACZYŃSKI THE PRIME MINISTER - ANALYZES FLIS: “Perhaps a moment of reflection has come, as in May before the postal elections. Kaczyński realized that this fantasy: 'they are already cracking, we'll squeeze them a bit more, and if not, we'll recruit a few people from Kukiz' – all these favorite maneuvers of Kaczyński – is simply damn risky. Who knows if the idea of Kaczyński joining the government isn't what the possibility of holding new elections in May was, in case the already called ones weren't held – a subterfuge that allows for accepting what seemed unacceptable just a moment earlier. Kaczyński as deputy prime minister, meaning effectively an ober-prime minister, has many advantages for the power balance in the United Right, while lacking the colossal disadvantages of Kaczyński the prime minister.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/michal-sutowski-jaroslaw-flis-zjednoczona-prawica-kryzys/ -- CYMAŃSKI ON THE FACT THAT THE PLATFORM'S MOTION WAS GOOD NEWS, TERLECKI ON THE RESTORATION OF CLUB DISCIPLINE ON LAWS WHEN THE COALITION RETURNS, SOBOLEWSKI ON HALTING AWS-IZATION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/09/24/ -- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI (PROBABLY) MOCKS THE PLATFORM - A SUBTLE MOVE THAT STRENGTHENING THE UNITED RIGHT LEADS TO ITS FALL : “Let PiS and Zbigniew Ziobro continue to demolish Poland and persecute their opponents. After all, Poles are accustomed to persecution and occupiers and consider them a natural state. The decision by Borys Budka and the leadership of Civic Platform to bring about the fall of the United Right by strengthening it is a subtle political maneuver, for which one can only tip one's hat and brush the dust off the path of the honorable leadership.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26331160,finezyjna-gra-opozycji-po-co-jej-wotum-nieufnosci-ktore-wzmacnia.html\ -- TRZASKOWSKI LOOKS LIKE A HELPLESS AND VERY LOST POLITICIAN - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Trzaskowski is unable to do this, and this is certainly the answer to the question of how he would govern Poland if he gained this or that piece of power at the central level. In essence, we see a politician who is not very creative, incapable of any bolder move. A politician who, in the face of a crisis – whether it's the sewage crisis or the financial crisis – looks truly helpless. The grotesque tendency to blame others is also noteworthy – either predecessors, as in the case of Czajka, or the government, as in the case of the financial crisis. A tendency that is politically understandable, but which, against the backdrop of Trzaskowski's political flatness, reinforces the impression of his helplessness.” -- UNMASKED HELPLESSNESS, NOT UNSPOKEN AMBITIONS - CONTINUES KARNOWSKI: “And the backdrop to all of this is his great national ambitions, his plans for a New Solidarity, for 10 million people who will overthrow the Law and Justice government. This contrast between unmasked helplessness and unspoken ambitions creates a sense of peculiar grotesque. A grotesque that will amuse us yet again.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/518893-w-obliczu-kryzysu-trzaskowski-wyglada-na-polityka-bezradnego -- SE WRITES ABOUT THE "SZYDŁO PARTY": “As we have unofficially established, recently in the palace, among other things, the president met with Beata Szydło on this matter, who, according to our information, sided with Ziobro in the dispute over the law, not Morawiecki and Kaczyński. In this context, a sly plan for a new party even appeared unofficially! – I think that with Beata Szydło, Zbigniew Ziobro and his MPs, with the support of the church and Father Tadeusz Rydzyk, we would be able to fight for over a dozen percent – one of the United Right politicians tells us.” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/szydlo-i-duda-zakladaja-partie-aa-3oDW-2SfY-CnkJ.html -- GW ON THE FACT THAT ŚWIĘCZKOWSKI EXTENDED ONE OF THE INVESTIGATIONS INTO THE WBK FOUNDATION, IN WHICH MORAWIECKI APPEARED: “National Prosecutor Bogdan Święczkowski demanded that his subordinates extend the investigation into Mateusz Morawiecki's involvement in the 'tape scandal' and question the then-serving prime minister. – Despite the calm tone, it is a plain official order – one of the Wrocław prosecutors tells us. – If you want to grill someone, even without more serious grounds, you simply extend the relevant investigation for a few months. Let him know that the sword hangs over him.” https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,26332634,jak-swieczkowski-chcial-grilowac-morawieckiego-zeby-wiedzial.html -- SHOUTING ABOUT HUMANIZATION MAKES NO SENSE - উদযাপন LIZINIEWICZ IN NIEZALEŻNA: “From the beginning of the uproar surrounding the amendment to the Animal Protection Act, I have heard accusations from all sides that I am humanizing animals, and that they cannot possess rights. Animals, obviously, are not capable of understanding a social contract, will never be aware of the function of law, and since they have no obligations, it is difficult for them to have rights. Does the fact that they cannot have rights mean that we can do anything we want with them? I think not. After all, a two-month-old baby (let alone an unborn one) is probably also unaware of the existence of a social contract, its rights, nor does it impose any obligations on itself, but the fact that it has human rights is obvious to us (certainly for conservatives who fight for the right to life). It also seems that there is a subtle difference between a human's obligation towards animals and their rights. Because while an animal does not have a right to life in the human sense, few people can infer from this fact (unless they are a sociopath) that it has the right, for example, to starve its dog. So before one starts shouting about humanization and dehumanization, it is worth considering whether this makes any sense at all.” https://niezalezna.pl/353654-humanizacja-i-dehumanizacja -- BIRTHDAYS: Agnieszka Arnold, Marek Opioła.

Łukasz Mężyk