-- SZUMOWSKI ON ELECTIONS, BUDKA ON INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEES, BIELAN ON DELAYING SENATE PROCEEDINGS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/05/ -- LOW-QUALITY POST - headline RZ: “The state-owned operator, when it comes to timely delivery of parcels, is at the very bottom in Europe. (...) The state company, in terms of domestic letter delivery punctuality, ranks third from last, with only Bulgaria and Spain performing worse. Poczta Polska has recorded a consistent decline in quality in this regard in recent years. While in 2012, 68.5% of such letters arrived on time, in 2018, it was only 57.1%.” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1427647-Poczta-niskiej-jakosci.html -- PIS GIVES UP ON MAY 10TH? - headline GW. “PiS is collapsing due to the mess it created itself” - Paweł Wroński. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25919401,pis-odpuszcza.html#S.koronawirus-K.P-B.1-L.1.zwfoto -- WROŃSKI ON PSL'S STRONGEST PULLING POWER: “Kosiniak-Kamysz remembers that the 2000 presidential elections shaped the Polish political reality for years to come. Back then, thanks to Andrzej Olechowski's good result (17.3%), the Civic Platform was formed from the remnants of the Electoral Action Solidarity and secessionists from the Freedom Union led by Donald Tusk. Today, the agrarian party has greater pulling power. The Union of European Democrats – a party originating from the Democratic Union and Freedom Union – is in coalition with the PSL. Before the parliamentary elections, Paweł Kukiz joined with part of his group. They are trying to 'enter the cities' – as Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski secured a mandate from Warsaw.” -- IT IS NOT THE PLATFORM THAT CONTROLS BARTOSZEWSKI'S WORDS - WROŃSKI FURTHER ON PSL'S STRATEGY: “It is no coincidence that Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski, in response to Tusk's appeal, recalled that he and PO are not the sole custodians of the words 'it is worth being decent.' https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25917635,w-co-gra-kosiniak-kamysz.html -- GOWIN'S SUPPORTERS WANT TO VOTE IN ONE ROOM - IWONA SZPALA AND AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “As we unofficially learn, Porozumienie politicians want to vote together in Warsaw, in one of the Sejm chambers. It's not just about technical matters, but about their well-being. – We are under immense pressure from PiS, which is why we want to be together on that day – says a Porozumienie politician.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25919599,opozycja-mobilizuje-sie-przed-glosowaniem-w-sprawie-wyborow.html#S.koronawirus-K.C-B.1-L.1.duze -- KACZYŃSKI HAS ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - JACEK KARNOWSKI ON WPOLITYCE.PL: “Ultimately, however, this is of little importance, as all these reports add up to one, truly important message: the situation is truly serious. Jarosław Kaczyński, on the one hand, still has all options on the table, and on the other, is ready for even the most extreme solutions, including – in my opinion – parliamentary elections. Of course, provided there is an opportunity to announce them, as it is not easy. Why is the PiS leader determined? Because he knows one thing: without an effective majority in the Sejm, one cannot govern effectively for long. The lesson from the second period of 2005-2007, when PiS tried to stay in power through a minority government, has been remembered. It is no coincidence that PiS later waited 8 years for another chance. This was decided, among other things, by the difficult and chaotic period of the minority government. A government that was attacked extremely heavily. The price for those few months was high.” -- THE ALLEGED MONSTER THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DEVOUR US HAS DISSOLVED IN THE RAYS OF THE MAY SUN - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “They will destroy a well-functioning political structure in which they had significant influence, for reasons that are still largely unknown. Because it is now clear that normal, traditional, safe elections could have been held on May 10th. It is also clear that such elections – or postal elections – can be held on May 23rd. The alleged monster that was supposed to devour us has dissolved in the rays of the May sun. Perhaps the most important aspect of all this is the high support of Poles for the ruling camp. This is a foundation that is difficult to crumble with such maneuvers. Moreover, against this backdrop, their meaning is particularly stark.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/498725-widac-ze-pis-gotowe-jest-na-kazdy-wariant-takze-radykalny -- GOWIN TOLERATES MAY 23RD BUT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW IT WOULD LOOK - JACEK GĄDEK on gazeta.pl: “Jarosław Gowin has enough votes in the Sejm to block the presidential elections in May, but he 'tolerates' the May 23rd date. However, there is no agreement between PiS and Gowin on how they would technically look. If PiS loses a key vote in the Sejm, the PiS government will introduce a state of emergency and postpone the presidential election to August. Jarosław Kaczyński is considering combining them with snap parliamentary elections then. - Everything is serious - says one source close to the government.” -- GOWIN CONVINCED OF THE LOYALTY OF 11 DEPUTIES - GĄDEK FURTHER: “Jarosław Gowin is convinced of the loyalty in voting of even 11 of his deputies, which, along with his own, would amount to 12 votes (these are optimistic calculations for Gowin), which PiS would no longer be able to defeat in a vote. The conclusion from this 'map' and all conversations is this: every single vote can make a difference.” -- PIS WOULD GAIN JUSTIFICATION FOR A STATE OF EMERGENCY - GĄDEK FURTHER: “If PiS loses the vote in the Sejm, it suffers a prestigious defeat, but gains something: justification for introducing a state of emergency, which PiS has so far ruled out. Given the failure of the bill, the elections should have taken place on May 10th, but there is no possibility of holding them. In short: complete chaos. Then the PiS government will be forced to introduce a state of natural disaster or a state of emergency, which automatically postpones the elections by at least three months. The explanation is obvious: it's because of the total opposition and Gowin's rebels – they will be identified as the culprits. This is at least how Nowogrodzka calculates. - If we win the vote, there will be elections. And if there is a defeat in the vote, then we will have culprits for the chaos - explains our source from the PiS camp.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25919724,j-kaczynski-grozi-podwojnymi-wyborami-w-sierpniu-by-nikt-nie.html -- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON PIS'S POLITICAL DEFENSIVE - writes in OKO.press: “5 days before the presidential elections scheduled for May 10th, Jarosław Kaczyński's party found itself on the political defensive. Dependent simultaneously on the results of the Senate vote, the decisions of several Porozumienie deputies, and the electoral logistics, the ruling party is unable to set a date for the election of the head of state.” -- PIS HAS FALLEN INTO ITS OWN TRAP OF CHAOS - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER: “‘PiS has outsmarted itself’ – assesses a person associated with the ruling camp in a conversation with OKO.press. Generating chaos was one of Kaczyński's strategies. The opposition, speaking with a multitude of voices, which therefore seemed dispersed and weak, fell victim to it. In the end, however, PiS fell into its own trap. The instability within the ruling camp caused by Jarosław Gowin, combined with legal sloppiness (depriving the National Electoral Commission of its powers), organizational problems (from the post office, through local governments and printing houses), and the general inefficiency of the Polish state (which suddenly had to face a new electoral challenge of unprecedented scale) have led to a situation where PiS is failing. Political pressure has not achieved much, and ballot papers are strewn across the streets. 'They fear the mess. Even their voters will be convinced that the elections were conducted poorly' – believes an opposition politician. An OKO.press poll showed that PiS voters also do not want postal elections on May 10th.” -- SZCZĘŚNIAK ON EARLIER ELECTIONS - NOW KACZYŃSKI KNOWS WHO HE IS PLAYING WITH - AND WHAT ABOUT IN A MONTH? HOŁOWNIA'S PARTY? A DIVIDED PLATFORM? “'Multiplying the unknowns' – an opposition politician replies to the question of whether Kaczyński will decide on earlier elections. Now the PiS leader knows who he is playing with and with what cards. And what will happen in a month, two – it is unknown. Maybe Szymon Hołownia will build a party? Maybe Konfederacja will strengthen? Maybe the Civic Platform will split? Maybe part of PO will go to Lewica, and part will build a new grouping with Gowin? Maybe PiS will not win a majority? Maybe Ziobro will follow Gowin's path and risk an independent run?” https://oko.press/w-siedzibie-pis-burza-mozgow/ -- THE PLATFORM'S RESPONSE TO DIRTY PLAY IS STILL THE SAME - CONVICTION OF MORAL RIGHTEOUSNESS BUT POLITICAL INEFFECTIVENESS - KAROLINA WIGURA in KULTURA LIBERALNA: “PiS plays dirty and cynically. Since 2015, they have been able to break the law, saying 'it's a different interpretation.' We know all this. Unfortunately, PO's response to this dirty and cynical game is always the same: the logic of noble defeat. Since they are dishonest and break the Constitution, we will be the 'total opposition,' we will boycott their elections, we will be 'above it all' – they seem to say most often. This is a strategy perfectly suited to maintaining the conviction of one's own moral righteousness, but its political ineffectiveness is evidenced by the high support for PiS and Jarosław Kaczyński's party's successive election victories over the past five years. Voters have the right to demand effectiveness, real successes – especially since the significance of regaining the Senate is visible to the naked eye during the current sanitary crisis.” -- WIGURA ON THE PROTEUS MYTH: “The opposition in Poland is in an extremely difficult situation today. Firstly, the fight against illiberal populists in Poland and worldwide is not easy at all. It can be compared to trying to defeat the mythical creature Proteus. Before we figure out what it looks like and what can be done to defeat it, it changes its form, and all the effort starts from the beginning. This is precisely how Jarosław Kaczyński's grouping behaves, permanently bending both political customs and legal restrictions of the Constitution and other laws.” In Homer's 'Odyssey,' there is a passage where we learn how Odysseus defeated this mythical creature. Because Proteus constantly changed his form, Odysseus caught him and held him very tightly, for so long until Proteus surrendered.” -- REALISTICALLY ASSESS THE SITUATION INSTEAD OF MORALIZING - WIGURA FURTHER: “First and foremost, one must realistically assess the situation, instead of moralizing. Since 2015, we have probably learned that it is impossible to take all power away from PiS with one skillful move. It promises to be a long, arduous process in which one may lose more than one skirmish. In this spirit, new solutions and strategies must be sought.” -- WIGURA ON THE EXPECTATION OF A THIRD WAY: “It is obvious that PiS bears responsibility for the current situation – as the party in power. However, PiS is not the addressee of the political expectations of any liberal voter. Therefore, I am addressing my remarks to the opposition. As a citizen, I expect the opposition today to seek a third, fourth, fifth way, to try all scenarios. So as not to condemn us, the voters, to a fruitless dispute between supporters of two unacceptable solutions: either voting in elections that are not free, or their complete boycott, the destabilizing consequences of which are difficult to predict.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/05/05/opozycja-szukaj-trzeciej-drogi/ -- WE DON'T KNOW WHEN TO GO TO THE HAIRDRESSER OR HOW TO ELECT A PRESIDENT - PAWEŁ BRAVO in TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Poles are equally unsure when they will be able to go to the hairdresser as they are unsure when they will be able to elect a president.” -- THE DEFINITIVE BLOODLETTING OF THE PLATFORM, A NEW BALANCE IS EMERGING - BRAVO FURTHER: “But an equally important element of the unexpected and situationally forced restructuring of Polish politics is the definitive bloodletting of the Civic Platform. The two are linked: if PiS and PO are like yin and yang of Polish politics, then it doesn't matter which of the elements, black or white, distorts first. A new balance is emerging, amidst the difficult-to-understand disputes of opposition leaders and the feverish machinations of pretenders to Kaczyński's legacy. And all this at a time when a stable government, unafraid of dialogue, is needed, with an opposition that is not preoccupied with internal struggles for the title of 'king of the yard' as its partner. If only to guide us through the subsequent phases of disorganization of social and economic life forced by the epidemic.” -- ALL BAD CHOICES - PAWEŁ BRAVO'S CONCLUSION: “Opposition parties could ensure that we connect this second issue with a clear plan of action. For example, agree on a single common candidate. For now, each of us faces bad choices: whether to endorse a suspicious vote, if it takes place in May, and if so, how to break the arrangement that has so far preserved PiS's dominance. Until something changes, we will face only bad choices. https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/zle-wybory-163216 -- THE PLATFORM HAS GOTTEN THE MOST LOST - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ in RZ: “During the epidemic, the PO got the most lost. The Platform's electorate received an unclear signal from the candidate who announced a boycott of the elections, although the party did not support it. The suspension of the campaign and engagement in public discourse were contradictory. The duality of messages sent by PO during the epidemic was exploited by opponents.” -- THE PLATFORM COULD NOT DEFEND ITSELF - NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER: “For Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Szymon Hołownia, the PO candidate is the opponent they must defeat to stand against the incumbent head of state. The attack on Kidawa-Błońska was multi-fronted. PO could not present an attractive agenda and defend its candidate. Cracks appeared in the party. Grzegorz Schetyna publicly distanced himself from the candidacy. PO's coalition partners: Inicjatywa Polska, Nowoczesna, and Zieloni, seemed to cease to exist. The coalition plunged into inertia, counting on the government's and the president's stumbles. Kidawa-Błońska herself fell into Bronisław Komorowski's rut. She lost support through her own fault.” -- THE PLATFORM MUST REINVENT ITSELF - NIZINKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “PO must reinvent itself. Kidawa-Błońska's campaign needs a restart, new energy, an idea, a face, a real program, and solutions that will appeal to Poles during the crisis. Especially since Koalicja Polska, Szymon Hołownia, and Lewica are already lining up for the Platform's electorate. Today, PO needs a miracle that will allow it to change its candidate, or an entirely new strategy. Otherwise, the presidential elections will be the beginning of the end for Donald Tusk's once-strong party.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/305049895-Nizinkiewicz-Dziwna-kampania-kandydatki-KO.html -- MAY 23RD SUDDENLY A COMPROMISE OFFER - PIOTR ZAREMBA in DGP: “If the bill fails, PiS may quickly declare a state of natural disaster in order to postpone the elections to August. For weeks, they argued that this was impossible. An alternative solution is to attempt to hold elections according to the traditional model. Only seniors and people in quarantine would vote by mail. However, the electoral machinery has been adapted for fully postal elections – for example, a sparser network of polling stations has been created. And such elections with queues at ballot boxes are easier to attack as dangerous from the perspective of sanitary requirements. Paradoxically, in hallway conversations, the May 23rd date has suddenly become a compromise offer from PiS. Can Gowin and part of the opposition agree to it?” -- IN THE CONFLICT WITH THE EU, THE POLISH GOVERNMENT IS AT A DISADVANTAGE - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “It might be fuel for PiS, but in a conflict with the Union, the Polish government is at a disadvantage. In this situation, it is not the quarrel with a few deputies over the elections that is the destabilizing factor. The government should escape into pure pragmatism, into fighting the epidemic, into helping Poles. But with a leader increasingly focused on his own ideological goals from another era, there are not many chances for this.” -- ZAREMBA'S INTERLOCUTOR EXPLAINS KACZYŃSKI: “It's possible he's just bluffing. But I see in this the philosophy of 'All or nothing.' One cannot be satisfied with partial success, shorten the battlefield. It makes public life unbearable, and the Polish national community deeply wounded. – But the president doesn't think in terms of community, there are only 'us' and 'them,' he has been attacked many times and won, pushing forward aggressively – explains a right-wing politician who knows Kaczyński well.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/7689309,zaremba-kaczynski-rewolucja-gowin-wybory-koronawirus.html -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI in RZ ON EPIDEMOCRACY - WASHING OUT THE DEMOCRATIC CONTENT FROM THE POLITICAL FORM: “Kaczyński will make the final decision on the direction this will all take. This proves the absurdity of the situation we find ourselves in. Even PiS deputies cannot say when the elections will be held. Not to mention citizens not involved in politics. Can a political system in which the date of elections is de facto decided by the leader of the ruling party still be called democracy? Or is it already epidemiocracy, i.e., a system with the formal framework of democracy, in which coronavirus is used to make decisions that wash out the democratic content from the political form, and in which the epidemic is a pretext for pushing through one's political will at all costs in order to consolidate one's power?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/305049899-Szuldrzynski-Ryzyko-epidemiokracji.html -- IF THE ELECTIONS ARE HELD IN AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER, LOCAL OFFICIALS WILL PARTICIPATE IN THEIR PREPARATION - JACEK KARNOWSKI in conversation with Paulina Siegień in KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “There will be no May 10th elections. Regarding potential May postal elections, I will not participate in pseudo-elections and this devil's dance. I compare it to the 1947 Sejm elections, which resulted in Bierut's election. Premier Mikołajczyk participated in these elections, and we know how it ended. Currently, there are no equal chances, candidates have unequal access to media, we do not have a real election campaign. The entire procedure is based on significant health risks for the residents of Poland, it is an effort to put Mr. Duda in the role of president at all costs, just as Bierut was appointed undemocratically at one time. I believe that one should simply not personally endorse these unfortunate pseudo-elections, because it is madness. If the elections are held in August or September, then we, as local officials, declare that we will participate in their preparation, as provided for by law. Then I will vote for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska.” -- I DON'T AGREE WITH TUSK TOO OFTEN - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “You know, I don't agree with Donald Tusk very often, but in this case, it's hard not to agree. These are not elections. I cannot imagine voting. We have the right to participate in equal and direct elections. These are not equal, because candidates do not have the right to an equal start. I am also surprised by Mr. Duda's lack of ambition.” -- GOWIN MAY LEAD THE OPPOSITION TO THEIR SENSES - KARNOWSKI FURTHER in conversation with KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “I'll say something that might be strange, but I believe that Jarosław Gowin, a man who resigned from being deputy prime minister, who risked everything, can lead the opposition to its senses. For Gowin, the way these elections were organized was a 'non possumus.' He made one compromise, then another, but at some point, he had to stop. The vote on this bill on postal elections in the Senate and Sejm will be a test for the opposition. I was very involved in the Senate elections, in building the Senate pact with other local officials. It's clear that this made a lot of sense. Thanks to this, we have an advantage in the Senate, and thank God, because if we didn't, it would be all over with these pseudo-elections.” -- I ADMIRE GOWIN FOR THE MOVE HE MADE - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “The question is whether Jarosław Gowin was ready for this. I believe he is an honest man, as I have known him for many years and have no reason to believe otherwise. I admire him for the move he made. Bogdan Borusewicz was right, but all the opposition candidates raced to reject this idea too quickly. Unfortunately, we have a problem with candidates. If one of the candidates' dream is to get to the second round, I congratulate him on his aspirations. It's like starting a race with the intention of finishing fourth.” -- NATIONAL UNITY COULD HAVE BEEN BUILT - CONCLUSION OF THE SOPOT MAYOR in conversation with KRYTYKA: “As representatives of local governments, we discussed with Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin, with Minister Jadwiga Emilewicz, we cooperate with voivodes. In the face of this tragedy, national unity could have been built. The PiS government did not do this, quite the opposite. The only method of operation for Kaczyński's team is conflict. There are no constructive actions, this is very clearly visible at this moment. The appeal of the episcopate, although very delayed, is significant. It would have been possible to invite representatives of other parties and discuss these elections, how they should look, when they should take place, seek agreement. Meanwhile, PiS is using the situation to deepen divisions and for a final reckoning with democracy.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/jacek-karnowski-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-rozmowa/ -- GALLOPING MAJOR ON GOWIN AND PSL - writes in Krytyka: “PSL seems to be the best choice. Firstly, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has quite similar views. Secondly, he has already admitted the Kukiz supporters, so the path is cleared. Thirdly, PSL still lacks popular candidates in cities. Fourthly, perhaps the process of decomposition of PO has begun, and Gowin and PSL will want to take their Christian democratic voters. Finally, fifthly, while a PiS-PO alliance is impossible, and a PO-PSL-Lewica-Hołownia-Konfederacja coalition is rather difficult to imagine, PiS, having a minority in the future Sejm, can easily enter into a coalition with PSL. In order to save democratic stabilization, of course. And then Gowin will become a minister again, because to paraphrase Franz Maurer: times change, and you, Mr. Gowin, are always a minister.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/czasy-sie-zmieniaja-a-gowin-zawsze-jest-ministrem/ -- THE MORE CHAOS IN THE STATE, THE STRONGER THE EXECUTIVE POWER, AND THIS IS CURRENTLY THE POWER OF THE DOMINANT PARTY - JAROSŁAW KUISZ in KULTURA LIBERALNA: “On the other hand, one can speak of 'Kaczyński's rule.' A 'law of gaining power,' discovered since 2015, which is in fact quite banal in the context of the history of the state and law. Namely, weakening individual institutions may indeed increase the scope of executive power. The more chaos in the state, the stronger the executive power – and currently, it is the power of the dominant political party. Please remember that Kaczyński holds a doctorate in law. However, this does not mean that a strong political party equates to a strong state. Quite the opposite, the strong power of one party is the strong power of one party, and that's all. The tragedy of the current situation is that we truly need a predictable state and its efficient institutions in a cross-party manner. Chaos does not win against the pandemic, nor its consequences. Chaos also does not provide geopolitical security.” -- OUR SOFT POWER HAS BEEN SYSTEMATICALLY DISSOLVED SINCE 2015 - KUISZ FURTHER: “Meanwhile, since 2015, our soft power has been systematically dissolved. Externally, we primarily manifest national egoism. The current elections are another link in the chain where the need to appreciate Poland in the world is confused with overestimating one's own strength.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/05/05/prawidlo-kaczynskiego-o-powiekszaniu-wladzy-chaosem/ -- POLAND IS A STATE OF EXCEPTION COUNTRY - KATARZYNA KASIA in KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Poland 2020 is not a democratic country. And I see no possibility of changing this situation. Not because the opposition is weak or lacks a charismatic leader, but because after five years of violating the Constitution, virtually nothing of it remains. Since 2015, we have been living in a state of exception, as evidenced by the frequency with which terms like legal dualism, 'dubious judges,' the division into Poland A and B, tribalism of political beliefs, and growing tension in relations with the European Union appear in our conversations. The COVID-19 pandemic is not the cause of this situation. It has merely revealed it, ultimately exposing the crude mechanisms of power's violence.” -- IT IS NOT THE GOOD OF THE CITIZENS BEHIND THIS, BUT THE CONSOLIDATION OF POWER - KASIA'S CONCLUSION: “Regardless of their date, democracy in Poland has been suspended and as such is not in effect. The powerlessness of the opposition, the helplessness of commentators and experts stem from the fact that the rules of the game are constantly being changed, because the government's strategy is destabilization. In subsequent regulations, ostensibly to protect us from the effects of the pandemic, regulations deepening the state of exception are being introduced through the back door. This is not driven by concern for the public interest, for the lives of citizens, but solely by the pursuit of strengthening a dictatorship and a dual state.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/05/05/kraj-stanu-wyjatkowego/ -- PHOTO. Fire of the House of Lords and the House of Commons (1834) - a painting by William Turner. Currently housed at the Museum of Art in Philadelphia. *William Turner – an English painter, known primarily for his romantic landscapes. Considered a precursor to Impressionism. The painting was created in 1834. On the night of October 16, 1834, Turner, along with thousands of others, witnessed the fire of the House of Lords and the House of Commons. He observed it with several students from a boat on the Thames. He made two sketchbooks at the time, one in watercolor and the other in leadpoint. Later, he painted an oil on canvas based on them.* -- BIRTHDAYS: Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, Witold Waszczykowski, Witold Kołodziejski, Kamil Dziubka.