-- KUKIZ ON A DECISIVE WEEK, LIPIŃSKI ON TALKS WITH KACZYŃSKI, GRODZKI CONFIRMS STANDING AS MARSHAL OF THE SEJM IS IN PLAY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/27/ -- KOSINIAK'S LATEST SPOT ON 300POLITYCE: “At the virtual program convention on Saturday, Kosiniak spoke for almost an hour, without a teleprompter, about his vision for the presidency and his idea for winning the dispute with the ruling party. He spoke about PiS's authoritarian tendencies and the fact that the incumbent president remains passive. He invoked the concept of subjects – meaning how PiS views citizens. 'I am not signing up to be a subject or a mercenary, and I know my compatriots are not signing up to be subjects,' he said. The spot returns to the message of respect and community.” https://300polityka.pl/news/2020/04/27/kosiniak-w-najnowszym-spocie-mowi-o-szacunku-wobec-prawa-i-obywateli-gdy-zlo-sie-szerzy-tym-bardziej-trzeba-walczyc-o-dobro-dlatego-chce-wam-wszystkim-powiedziec-dziekuje-i-zadeklarowac-ze-ja-t/ -- INSTRUCTIONAL SPOT ABOUT THE RISKY ELECTION, WHICH PLATFORMA PLANS TO FLOOD THE INTERNET AND TV WITH PAID SLOTS THIS WEEK: "The instructional spot, which 300POLITYKA is publishing first, is to be part of a massive television and internet campaign – we hear. The first in the series of spots simply explains the main threats associated with 'envelope elections'. 'Please prepare for the following dangers,' says the narrator in a film in the style of well-known instructional materials." https://300polityka.pl/news/2020/04/26/platforma-kontratakuje-masowa-platna-kampania-seria-spotow-instruktazowych-chce-zmusic-pis-do-politycznej-odpowiedzi-prosimy-przygotowac-sie-na-nastepujace-niebezpieczenstwa/ -- ELECTORAL MINEFIELD - Grzegorz Osiecki, Tomasz Żółciak in DGP: “One of the biggest problems for the upcoming elections may be the pace of work of the electoral commissions, established under the postal voting law. Counting the votes after the first round could take… dozens of days.” -- PROF. FLIS TELLS DGP THAT COUNTING VOTES AFTER THE FIRST ROUND MAY TAKE DOZENS OF DAYS: “A smooth transition from the first to a potential second round could prove problematic. That’s only two weeks. Crucially, when the vote counting ends and the order for printing and distributing ballots for the second round is issued – worries our interviewee, who knows the behind-the-scenes workings of the Polish Security Printing Works. Political scientist Jarosław Flis’s analyses suggest that after the first round, counting votes in the so-called Bavarian standard, which PiS often refers to, could take up to several dozen days. If we were to take Bavaria as an example, where one six-person team could process 1,000 ballot packages in eight hours, in Krakow, where 45 people can work in a commission, counting could take 54 working days. And this is assuming the commission divides into six-person teams, which is essentially against the law. In Legnica, it would take 42 days, in Wałbrzych or Warsaw's Ochota – 45 days – says Flis. – It’s interesting who would take on such a task for the 350 PLN allotted to a commission member – he wonders.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/7680631,wybory-prezydenckie-koronawirus-karty-wyborcze-druk-wysylka-pis.html -- GW WRITES ABOUT THE OPPOSITION'S PLAN TO STOP PIS'S POLITICAL TECHNOLOGICAL TRAIN - Agata Kondzińska, Iwona Szpala: “If the opposition wins this vote in the Sejm, after the bill returns from the Senate, and manages to maintain a majority, the next step would be to remove Marshal Elżbieta Witek. – For the ruling camp, the Marshal of the Sejm is a key person; her removal would be a powerful blow. It would stop the technological train, in which laws pass in a few hours without legal opinions, without social consultations, under the thumb of Nowogrodzka – says one of the opposition MPs.” -- IF THE PIS MAJORITY CAN BE STABILIZED, SOLUTIONS CONFIRMING THE NEW POLITICAL ORDER MUST BE SOUGHT - GW'S SOURCE FROM PO LEADERSHIP: “Our source from KO leadership: – We did not directly offer Jarosław Gowin the position of Marshal. May 6th or 7th is critical, when the PiS bill on universal postal voting returns to the Sejm. If our side succeeds, the world will open up anew. He says he doesn't know where all the sensation around Gowin's future role comes from, because the plan is obvious. If the opposition succeeds in destabilizing the PiS majority in the Sejm, solutions must be sought to confirm the new political order. – A change of Marshal is a natural matter – our source assures.” -- GOWIN ALLEGEDLY HEARD THAT KO IS READY TO INVITE POROZUMIENIE TO LISTS IN FUTURE ELECTIONS - FURTHERMORE BY GW AUTHORS: “Gowin allegedly heard that KO is ready to invite Porozumienie to the lists in future elections. Porozumienie has 18 MPs, and the United Right has only a slim majority in the Sejm – 235 people, four more than needed to pass laws. – If Gowin's people were to switch to the opposition, they should be provided with political security. From what we know, Gowin connects his future more with the Peasants, which is a more natural choice, fully understandable – says a KO politician.” -- WE HAVE A QUEUING COMMITTEE WITH PIS - CONFEDERATION POLITICIAN IN GW: “So far, the opposition has consistently declared that it does not agree to postal voting in May. But this does not prevent the ruling party politicians from poaching from their political opponents. Confederation MP: – They are working on us very intensively; we have a queuing committee from PiS on our phones. It looks like Nowogrodzka has issued an order: Give me Konfederacja, there will be a reward.” -- CONFEDERATION ON THE DEPUTY MARSHAL POSITION FOR THEMSELVES: “Now the Confederation wants to stand aside. – We don't have a position yet, but we will be watching closely, because the whole plan is going up in smoke; we will be the kingmakers. If Gowin were to become Marshal with our support, then I understand that Lewica would support our deputy Marshal – says one of the Confederation leaders to us.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25899705,opozycja-gra-z-gowinem-o-wladze-i-przejecie-sejmu-plan-moze.html -- THE POST-2015 POLITICAL ERA AS WE KNOW IT IS CLOSING - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Cracks are appearing in the ruling camp, and not just because of the approach to the timing and method of holding the elections. This was only – or perhaps as much as – a flashpoint that concerned the need to regroup after five years of a specific coalition. Especially since it is now hanging by a thread of five MPs – with little possibility of 'recruiting' others as in 2015-2019 – and is simply uncertain. The lack of stabilization also stems from signals about a coalition agreement that lacks a clause regarding joint electoral lists in 2023. If Gowin and Ziobro have indeed received a message that this is essentially the final lap of their current cooperation, then their reactions are understandable.” -- CITIZENS WANT TO BE TREATED SERIOUSLY, WHICH IS NOT HAPPENING NOW - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “Not participating in an electoral procedure being rushed through, without respect for institutions, deadlines, and sometimes simply the law, will be a natural decision for many Poles who – regardless of their views and sympathies – want to be treated seriously by the government and their state. This is simply not happening now.” -- BLIND PRESSURE WON'T WORK THIS TIME - FIJOŁEK'S CONCLUSION: "The effect is that probably a few days before the planned election date, we will not know where we stand – neither legally (what next with the law that is in the Senate?), nor technically (what about the commissions that are supposed to count votes quickly but lack sufficient members?), nor politically (what about the government and the parliamentary majority?). These are not just innocent turbulences, of which there are many during the term of any government – it is clearly visible that a certain formula (of governing, of coalition functioning, of approach to the opposition) is simply exhausted. These processes have been accelerated not only by the coronavirus epidemic but also by PiS losing the Senate and the conflict surrounding the presidential elections. And since we cannot yet see on the horizon what will emerge from this political fog, many people are exerting blind pressure: on Gowin and Porozumienie, on the Post Office, on the opposition, on local governments, on the media, on themselves. However, it seems that this time it won't work. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/497587-wybory-prawica-dobra-zmiana-pewien-etap-sie-domyka -- THE DICE HAVE BEEN CAST, THE UNITED RIGHT CAN COUNT DOWN THE MINUTES TO ITS FORMAL END - DR RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK in an interview with wpolityce.pl: “I think the dice have been cast. One can imagine Porozumienie continuing within the United Right, perhaps it will depend on short-term calculations. However, loyalty and the clearly indicated hegemony of one party within the United Right have so far guaranteed the coalition's survival. This has now been called into question. It is also a very special moment – if there is no agreement, discussions take place via the media, at a difficult time for the state, not just for the ruling party, which means that such insubordination and disagreement can appear anywhere and anytime. This in itself shows that such a formation can only count down the minutes to its formal end.” -- THIS IS WHAT THE FORMATION OF A NEW POLITICAL GROUP LOOKS LIKE - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “If a politician who until recently held a very prominent position in the Council of Ministers appears at a press conference with politicians belonging to the most extreme opponents of this government, and moreover, announcements regarding joint programming work are made there, then this is more or less what the formation of a new political entity looks like. If someone forms a new entity, they are giving up on the old one. I think that what we observed and this rumor do not necessarily explain anything to us and bring us closer to a possible date for the presidential elections, but they certainly bring us closer to answering the question of from which list Jarosław Gowin will run in the next elections.” -- THE FIRST ATTACK ON PIS THAT DOES NOT FIT THE FORMULA OF TOTAL OPPOSITION - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “Perhaps not literally PSL, but such a formation that would combine PSL with liberal-conservative politicians. It is worth noting that this would be the first attack on PiS that would not directly fit into the formula of total opposition. It would be an attempt to create a formation that would be different from PiS, especially in economic matters it would be much more liberal, but would not necessarily seek open differences in everything. It would not reject a priori everything, which would be a new situation, because the previous strategy of total opposition has not brought any strategic successes.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/497530-nasz-wywiad-prof-chwedoruk-zp-z-gowinem-juz-nie-ma -- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON THE STATE OF EMERGENCY AS AN OPTION: “Then there are two scenarios. Either, despite everything, a state of emergency, forced by opposition obstruction, or organizing elections on May 10th according to old rules, i.e., with polling stations and personal voting. Very difficult, given the lack of time and sabotage by local government officials. Very difficult, but perhaps necessary. Today's by-elections showed that it can be done, and in a civilized manner.” -- KARNOWSKI ON THE SIGNIFICANCE OF REPLACING THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM IN THE CONTEXT OF PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION: “The answer is obvious: we will enter a very serious constitutional crisis. Andrzej Duda will be president until August 6th, but after that, the office will be vacant. The Constitutional Tribunal will have to clarify the situation, which will likely order new elections, or recommend setting a new voting date with the same set of candidates. Theoretically, the Sejm could also have a say, e.g., through some new constitutional amendment, but given the opposition's stance, this is doubtful, not to mention whether the Sejm can correct such a legally complex situation. However, until then, between August 6th and the inauguration of the new president, the head of state will be the Marshal of the Sejm. That is why information about the opposition's plan to replace the Marshal of the Sejm is potentially so significant. It would mean not only the actual loss of governance by the government (it is impossible to govern effectively without a Marshal of the Sejm) but could also mean a change of occupant in the presidential palace without the need for elections.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/497547-wazne-po-6-viii-to-marszalek-sejmu-moze-byc-glowa-panstwa -- A REAL TSUNAMI IS BREWING IN POLITICS, WHICH COULD CHANGE THE CURRENT ORDER - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “If it happens, and Gowin's party buries the law allowing for postal elections in May, it will mean that after a period of turbulence, the plane of Polish politics will enter completely unknown territory. We don't know when and on what terms the presidential elections would be held, we don't know if Mateusz Morawiecki's government will fall, nor what will happen if PiS loses its majority not only in the Senate but also in the Sejm. As if the emotions related to the pandemic were not enough, a real tsunami is brewing in politics that could sweep away the current order.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/304269957-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Nadchodzi-polityczne-tsunami.html -- ŁUKASZ SZUMOWSKI ON TALKS WITH THE CHAIRMAN OF PIS - in an interview with DGP (Klara Klinger, Grzegorz Osiecki): “I spoke with him. The Chairman asked about the course of the curves, how many patients we have, how many hospital beds are occupied, what our medical staff resources are, what the forecasts are, and when it might end. Obvious questions.” -- I DON'T FEEL ANY PRESSURE - SZUMOWSKI CONTINUES: “No such request was made. I presented my recommendations. And nothing more. I don't feel any pressure in this regard. Media pressure is a different matter. There is an expectation that I should definitively decide on the elections. But I stick to scientific data and talk about them.” -- EXTENDING THE STATE OF EMERGENCY WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE - SZUMOWSKI CONTINUES IN DGP: “I see, one newspaper even wrote that I recommended a specific term, a specific date, which is untrue. Everyone today is trying to shift responsibility onto the shoulders of the Minister of Health. I repeat: fully safe traditional elections as we know them can take place in two years. The opposition, as I see it, rejects this recommendation. And in such a situation, a safer form of elections is the postal form, and I think it's hard to argue with that. Without amending the Constitution, we cannot change the election date. We certainly won't introduce a state of emergency every now and then and keep extending it. That is not very serious. As for postal elections, I clearly said that there is no more or less safe month here. Except perhaps for autumn, when we will likely have both COVID and the flu.” -- TESTING ALL DOCTORS WOULD LEAD TO INFORMATIONAL CHAOS - SZUMOWSKI CONTINUES: “Regarding the validity of results and logistics. Finances play a smaller role. We would have to test 500,000 people every week. No expert sees a basis for this. No country is undertaking this. The number of false positive results would be enormous. And what if we tested someone not on the day indicated by medical guidelines and they were negative but actually a source of infection? I am constantly asked why we don't do serological tests. Because we have 2-3 times more asymptomatic cases than positive tests. Where there are more diagnosed cases, the result can be 12 times higher. We can have one sick person per thousand inhabitants. Therefore, a thousand people need to be tested to find them. This assumes that all tests have full efficacy. And serological tests have a rather high error rate. This will result in a dozen or so false results for every genuinely ill person. This will introduce more informational chaos than benefits. It is much more important to introduce tests for people who suspect they may be infected.” -- SZUMOWSKI ON THE ORDER FOR A COMPANY ASSOCIATED WITH PIS: “When the epidemic arrived, we started buying tests from companies that had been dealing with this until then. This company you are talking about was one of them. It was recommended as a proven supplier of tests by, among others, sanitary-epidemiological stations. In the first phase of the coronavirus's presence in Poland, we bought 67,000 tests from it, which is about 6.7% of all tests we bought.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/7680784,lukasz-szumowski-wybory-korespondencyjne-pis-jaroslaw-kaczynski-covid-19-koronawirus.html -- RESEARCH INDICATES A BREAK IN THE BOND BETWEEN THE RULING PARTY AND CITIZENS - based on SWPS research, prof. Markowski and dr Żerkowska-Balas write in RZ: “In democracies, citizens have the right to know what their fellow citizens think and what actions they are taking. In the era of a pandemic, this knowledge is crucial, not only for citizens but also for the authorities. This premise – not always true – assumes that the authorities listen to the voice of the citizens and react to human preferences and opinions. The results obtained in our study (initiated by a team from the Center for Democracy Studies, led by R. Markowski, conducted by PBS on a sample of 700 adult Poles) and their analyses indicate, however, that in Poland today, there is a break in this bond – necessary in democracies – between the rulers and the citizens, and their right to have their preferences taken into account.” -- GOVERNMENT RATED WORSE THAN THE EU - MARKOWSKI AND ŻERKOWSKA-BALAS CONTINUE: “The assessment of public institutions and their handling of the epidemic shows that local authorities and educational authorities are rated best, the European Union is rated slightly worse, and the government is rated even worse.” https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/304269964-Markowski-Zerkowska-Balas-Czego-sie-boja-Polacy.html -- HOŁOWNIA IS THE BEST ON THE OPPOSITION SIDE - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Let us recall once again: for the crisis to play the role of a 'bomb,' the political scene must be adequately prepared. The opposition has done much less in this regard than one might expect. The candidate of the largest opposition party is erratic in her statements, demobilizing voters, and her presidential campaign looks bad. Perhaps the best among the opposition candidates is the non-partisan Szymon Hołownia, but his performances are not translating into consolidating support for a specific opposition force or increasing support for the opposition as such. Much, therefore, depends on whether Jarosław Gowin will allow Kaczyński to believe that anything goes in democratic politics.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/04/27/pis-poparcie-kampania-wyborcza-sawczuk/ -- WATCH THE BASTARDS' HANDS, NOT BOYCOTT – EMERGENCY PLAN FOR MAY ELECTIONS - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Because you can't, damn it, print ballots and organize people to work according to laws and procedures that don't exist, although they might be created. And so on, and so forth. Speak, spread, convince friends and neighbors. And when May 10th or 17th comes? Watch the bastards' hands, that's the second stage. Organize a large citizen surveillance of the authorities. Why? Because since we said the elections were a farce, we will now prove it. In every municipality, under every mailbox, look for lost envelopes with votes and film coughing postmen. Collect every report from anyone who didn't receive such an envelope, because although voting in such conditions is no obligation, neither legal nor moral, it is still a sacred right. We verify these reports, filter them through the eyes of lawyers and journalists, fact-checkers, and watchdog organizations. In short, we gather a gigantic body of evidence that the entire electoral mess that PiS has brought upon Poles actually violates the standards of democracy, the protection of the unborn, as well as human reason and dignity.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/michal-sutowski-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-bojkot-inwigilacja-wladzy/ -- YOU FAILED - KINGA DUNIN TO POLITICIANS - writes in Krytyka: “In such a situation, a boycott as an action, not just an omission, as a political act, seems like a quite sensible civic choice. Politics is not just partisan chess, and a decision must be made and given political meaning. Politicians will not make it for us, so everything will probably end with actions on FB, and I will be on the side of those who boycott, not those who simply don't vote. Then we can think about electoral protests, all ways to get them invalidated. Obviously, what I am writing will not please politicians. Well – for now, you have failed. But everything has its good sides. Such social protest against these (non)elections can also be turned into ammunition and used in some future battle. Unless a miracle happens – and I will still see a united, inspired, captivating opposition, a beautiful David, and I will believe that he can kick Goliath's ass.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/niewybory-stanu-wyjatkowego-komentarz-kinga-dunin/ -- PHOTO. The Rape of Europa – a painting by the Italian Renaissance painter Paolo Veronese, Doge's Palace in Venice. It is part of the decoration in the Sala di Anticollegio. This room served as an antechamber to the Hall of the Assembly (Sala del Collegio). The motif of the painting refers to the myth telling of Zeus's love for the Phoenician princess Europa. Zeus, having fallen in love with Europa, took the form of a white bull and appeared in a meadow, the place where the princess and her companions played. Europa, seduced by the bull's gentleness and delicacy, sat on its back, and it, taking advantage of this, fled, crossed the sea, and stopped only in a cave located on the island of Crete. -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Dziwisz, Magdalena Kopka, Paweł Kasprzyk, Zbigniew Babalski, Andrzej Barcikowski, Piotr Zychowicz, Joanna Skoczek.