state of play: 03/06/2020

POLITICAL GAME STATE: Kozanecki on Onet: Mindless Laughter at Duda on the Platform; Stankiewicz: Signing a Bill Marked by Lichocka's Fingerprint Would Be Political Suicide; Zaremba: Commentators Declare Duda's Campaign Fatal, Yet Polls Don't Budge

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-- 88TH BIRTHDAY OF PROFESSOR BRONISŁAW GEREMEK. -- EXCERPT FROM EWĄ MILEWICZ'S TEXT ABOUT BRONISŁAW GEREMEK FROM 2008: “When negotiations around Premier Suchocka’s government were underway, I asked Geremek about their status. The professor remained silent, meticulously cleaning his pipe with great interest. After a moment, he said: ‘Please, next question.’ And so he continued cleaning his pipe in silence through several more questions. In the end, he said: ‘Madam editor, I most enjoy answering questions that I ask myself.’ ” -- ANOTHER EXCERPT FROM EWĄ MILEWICZ'S TEXT: “Geremek wasn’t just about public affairs. It was evident, even on television screens, that he had a great weakness for certain women. He once spoke with a journalist, a beautiful woman, about Europe. Formally, the conversation was about that topic. In reality, however, it was not Europe that was visible, but Geremek’s fascination with the journalist. After that program, someone told Geremek that the screen should carry a warning: ‘Program about seduction. Recommended for ages 18 and up.’ He laughed, but didn't deny it.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,161389,23659612,polityk-historyk-obywatel-a-moze-uwodziciel.html -- PROFESSOR SAMSONOWICZ RECALLED GEREMEK IN 2008 – EXCERPT FROM RAFAL KALUKIN'S CONVERSATION: “Absolutely. His small apartment on Piwna Street was a regular meeting place for a large group for 20 years. Purely social gatherings, although the topics we discussed ended up in the security services' files in the 70s. The apartment was bugged. Bronek was also a passionate film enthusiast. We went to the cinema or a play almost every week. We also went to the Narew river. He liked it so much there that he bought a plot of land nearby. I'm afraid you remember Geremek from the last twenty years. And that was a different Bronek. He changed radically during martial law, after his release from internment. He began to be seen as the intellectual voice of the opposition. It was a burden that exhausted him terribly.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,161389,23661619,bronislaw-geremek-na-uniwersytecie-inny-bronek.html -- EVERY PRESIDENTIAL DECISION TODAY IS ALREADY A CALCULATION - SAID KOSINIAK, KIDAWA APPEALS FOR A VETO: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/06/ -- MINDLESS LAUGHTER AT DUDA ON THE PLATFORM IN KOŃSKIE – PIOTR KOZANECKI ON ONET: “Herd mentality, or herd stupidity, affects all sides of the political dispute. Andrzej Duda signed the railway transport act on a platform in the town of Końskie. And of course, he was ruthlessly ridiculed. KO politicians and many anti-PiS commentators give the impression that they haven't read a factual analysis of what's happening in Poland and the world for years.” -- HAS PLATFORMA STOPPED AT EARLY TUSK? – KOZANECKI CONTINUES: “Meanwhile, KO politicians and many anti-PiS commentators give the impression that they haven't read a factual analysis of what's happening in Poland and the world for years. It seems their knowledge of economics and politics stopped with Leszek Balcerowicz and early Tusk. And in the meantime, Minister Jadwiga Emilewicz posts a photo on Twitter of books – by authors Filip Springer and Joanna Erbel, politically as far as possible from PiS – dedicated to the issue of housing accessibility in Poland. Yes, yes, esteemed elite, this is also a challenge that publicists and politicians have been trying to tackle for about a hundred years. And no, thirty years of free market haven't solved this problem, nor have over 40 years of the PRL. Neither a hundred percent state, nor a hundred percent free market. Indirect solutions and nuances are needed. But this cannot be approached with political animosity, but rather by analyzing data and drawing knowledge from outside Twitter and one's own bubble of well-off friends.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/duda-podpisal-ustawe-na-peronie-w-konskich-komentarz/6g7rtzx? -- TAX OFFICE TAKES 700 PLN FROM CANCER PATIENT FOR TVP SUBSCRIPTION – GW REPORT: “– The tax office notified ZUS and since January they've been deducting about 700 PLN from my pension. That's over a third of my benefit – says Ms. Iza. She adds: – The medications I'm currently taking cost about 400 PLN per month. It's not enough for me until the first [of the month]. It's humiliating, but I had to ask my adult children for help. (...) Ms. Iza: – I am an example of how cancer is not treated in Poland. How much one has to wait for every visit, examination, and procedure. I know how much money we need for oncology. I watched the debate about transferring 2 billion PLN to government media on television. When I saw the gesture of MP Lichocka, I felt it was directed at me. I wanted to throw the television out the window. But I didn't have the strength. After another radiation treatment, it was hard for me to get out of bed.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,25761295,urzad-skarbowy-zabiera-jej-jedna-trzecia-emerytury-za-zalegly.html -- PIOTR SZUŁDRZYŃSKI WRITES ABOUT SERIOUS MISTAKES BY PIS IN DUDA'S CAMPAIGN: “in the first days of the election campaign, the party made serious strategic errors, as a result of which Duda became even more strongly tied to PiS. PiS leaders, with Jarosław Kaczyński at the forefront, appeared at the inaugural campaign event and emphasized that re-election is a guarantee of the implementation of the United Right's program.” -- A VETO IS A RISKY GAMBLE ON A SINGLE CARD – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “At first glance, nothing can be faulted in this reasoning. The problem is that Andrzej Duda's campaign staff has already made too many mistakes for a single veto to reset the campaign. Furthermore, a veto might soften the hard electorate, which had just forgiven Duda for such 'betrayals' as Antoni Macierewicz's resignation. By vetoing 2 billion PLN for TVP, the president would be making a risky gamble on a single card.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/303059897-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Duda-stawia-wszystko-na-jedna-karte.html -- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL OPTION: “And if there is a fear that the current president will lose the election, the bill should be sent to the Constitutional Tribunal before signing. Julia Przyłębska will announce that everything is in order, and then even the winner from the opposition will have to sign it, because the constitution so stipulates.” -- WIELOWIEYSKA ON DUDA NOT HAVING TO GET HIS HANDS DIRTY WITH TVP PROPAGANDA: “Duda’s campaign team believed that they needed to appeal to the moderate electorate. Hence the leak that the president demanded the resignation of TVP CEO Jacek Kurski. The setup was intended to secure Duda's favor with voters critical of TVP. In their opinion, Andrzej Duda cannot take responsibility for the hate and propaganda broadcast by the government television. Let it flow, as long as the president doesn't have to get his hands dirty with it.” -- THE SETUP TURNED INTO A CONFLICT – WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Nevertheless, the Chief may now have a headache. The initial setup has turned into a real conflict. News of the war has leaked out and strongly suggests it is weakening PiS by showing divisions. And voters must have a clear message on what to think. And they are supposed to think that TVP is very good. The lack of a clear slogan, what is good and what is bad, demobilizes the electorate, makes people who expect clear instructions feel lost. Their self-confidence disappears, and consequently, it no longer radiates to other voters. This is what Jarosław Kaczyński feared.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25763567,dlaczego-kaczynski-wsciekl-sie-na-prezydenta.html -- CHANGING THE CANDIDATE WOULD RIDICULE THE RULING CAMP – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN PTT: “If that were the case, the President would prove to be an extreme political dilettante. Such an operation would ridicule the ruling camp and almost certainly end with the opposition winning the presidential election. For the dubious satisfaction of not backing down an inch, Kaczyński would shove his party into a whole host of problems. Including government TVP – because although a new president would not be able to dismiss Kurski. But they would effectively block any laws allowing for the funding of public media until the next parliamentary elections.” -- ZAREMBA ON KACZYŃSKI'S STUBBORNNESS: “A sophisticated approach would naturally involve a different game. The president vetoes, and PiS supports TVP and public radio with smaller sums. And finds 'something' for healthcare, which, given the real threat of an epidemic, would be even more justified than a few months ago. But it seems that PiS is incapable of such a game. Primarily due to the President's stubbornness, for whom satisfaction is paramount. Defending his propaganda machine at all costs is a matter of his own identity.” -- LIBERAL LEFT COMMENTARIES ARE OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY – POLLS DON'T BUDGE – ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “And so it was undermined by Kaczyński's refusal. This does not mean, however, that Duda's chances are hopeless. Liberal left commentators repeatedly declare that his campaign is fatal, he himself is unbelievable, and yet the polls do not budge. Due to the weakness of the main competitor, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. And perhaps also because the social causes of the dominance of the socially, slightly eurosceptic right have not disappeared.” https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-dylemat-prezydenta-andrzeja-dudy-bedzie-weto-dla-2-mld-dotacji-dla-tvp/ar/c15-14839798 -- IT'S GOOD THAT TODAY MARKS THE END OF THIS SPECTACLE DESIGNED TO CONVINCE US THE PRESIDENT IS INDEPENDENT OF PIS – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONET: “The president is reportedly rebelling. Leaks say he wants to oust Jacek Kurski from TVP. The president is visited by the party leader. Leaks say he demands the signing of the 2 billion PLN bill for TVP. The leader leaves quickly. Leaks say he was furious because the president wants to veto the bill. The president is consulting widely. Leaks say Mrs. Agata is telling him to be tough. But the party leader is really tough. Leaks speak of his threats to the president, that he will field another candidate in the elections. It's good that today marks the end of this spectacle, which is meant to convince us that the president is independent of PiS, that the party leader is his petitioner, and – most grotesquely – that Duda could bring about Kurski's removal.” -- DUDA'S MOVE IS CALCULATED; SIGNING A BILL MARKED BY LICHOCKA'S FINGERPRINT WOULD BE POLITICAL SUICIDE – STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Duda's current rebellion is calculated – it's meant to help him in the elections. Signing a bill marked by Joanna Lichocka's fingerprint, skillfully presented by the opposition as a grab for oncology funds, would be political suicide. The truth is, however, that regardless of Duda's electoral decision today, PiS will find a way to fund TVP with billions – and the president will help if needed. One more thing. Duda may not love Kurski, but he needs his help in the election campaign. By leading to his removal at this moment, he would be shooting himself in the foot. And it's hard to suspect the president of having inclinations towards self-harm.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/zakaz-wywozu-lekow-newsletter/0fpbhpf -- JACEK GĄDEK ON THE DECISION EVEN 5 MINUTES EARLY: “The president’s plan to veto the 1.95 billion PLN bill for public media is still on. – But the final decision could be made even 5 minutes before its announcement – believes one of the PiS politicians. On Wednesday, Andrzej Duda informed Jarosław Kaczyński that since the TVP leader is to remain, there will be a veto. The topic of who, if not Duda, would be the best PiS candidate for president was even raised at the campaign headquarters – the name Mateusz Morawiecki was mentioned. However, such a scenario is considered unlikely within the PiS camp itself.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25760801,wrzenie-wokol-pieniedzy-dla-tvp-plan-by-andrzej-duda-postawil.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Lis (turning 54), Marek Ziółkowski, Piotr Marciniak, Beata Gosiewska.

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