state of play: 03/04/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Wielowieyska: Chaos Reigns in PiS Campaign, But PAD Doesn't Have to Lose; Flis: Duda Pays for His Camp's Sins; Dorn: PiS Takes Body Blows and Struggles to Breathe
-- JAN KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKI ON HIS WIFE: SHE HAS NO "SUBMISSION GENE" - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/04/
-- IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO PUSH KURSKI OFF THE SLEIGH - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “It's impossible to blame Kurski for everything – he is merely a part of the system created by PiS after 2015. One resignation won't turn TVP into the BBC. So far, Kurski has a protector in Jarosław Kaczyński, who rejected the ultimatum. The president, if he wants to show he is even a little bit independent, would have to veto the law. This would increase the tension between him and PiS, which Duda is condemned to. Moreover, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska would announce it as her own success because she had appealed for a veto. If the president signs the law, he will prove his loyalty to PiS, but he will emphasize his lack of independence. A fatal situation, but Duda has worked hard for five years to find himself in it.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200309768-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Nie-wystarczy-zrzucic-Kurskiego-z-san.html
-- IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN HE HAS TO LOSE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Indeed, chaos has erupted in the PiS campaign, but that doesn't necessarily mean the president has to lose the election.”
-- BEFORE THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS, PIS ALSO SUFFERED SETBACKS - CONTINUES WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "The key to interpreting these polls is to notice a significant group of voters who declare their intention to vote but haven't yet decided who to support. In various polls, this ranges from a few to even a dozen percent of respondents. The outcome of the presidential elections remains a major unknown. Let's remember that before the European elections, the PiS campaign also experienced setbacks, and it might have seemed that the ruling camp was on the defensive, while the opposition was advancing rapidly. However, in the end, the result was an undisputed victory for the ruling party. Therefore, mistakes and incompetence of campaign strategists don't necessarily mean a defeat for Andrzej Duda.”
-- DUDA IS FLAILING FROM SIDE TO SIDE - CONTINUES WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The president's campaign has therefore lost momentum. Attempts to seize the initiative and go on the offensive are quite unsuccessful or risky. But the opposition cannot claim victory. Andrzej Duda's approval ratings remain high; CBOS even predicted his win in the first round. Mockers immediately declared that the result from the state-run polling agency was manipulated. I disagree with that. CBOS can accurately reflect public sentiment.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25753562,wybory-prezydenckie-andrzej-duda-miota-sie-od-sciany-do-sciany.html
-- DUDA IS PAYING FOR HIS CAMP'S SINS - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “But this is a consequence of his presidency. This isn't something that suddenly befell him like the coronavirus; it's the result of a five-year illness of PiS itself. Duda is paying for all the sins of his camp.”
-- DUDA HAS AN UP HILL BATTLE - CONTINUES FLIS: “For several months, I've been saying that according to my calculations, Duda is facing an uphill battle. Only Kaczyński is like a coach who enters the locker room before a match and says: 'Guys, if we lose, we'll still stay in the league, nothing will happen.' This is because in all the elections of 2018-19, votes for PiS opponents were more numerous than votes for PiS. For example, if you take the average support for PiS in Senate elections across 40 constituencies where there was a one-on-one contest, it was 47.5%. Such a result in a presidential election is a defeat. Kaczyński claims the senators didn't try hard enough. They did. But in the Senate, 47.5% isn't the same as 43.5% in the Sejm. In the Sejm, such a result yields a majority of seats, while in the Senate, 47.5% gives a majority to the opposition.”
-- FIRST NOTHING CAN HARM YOU, AND THEN NOTHING CAN HELP YOU - CONTINUES FLIS: “Perhaps we are now at the moment that Marcin Wicha described around 2014, in the context of 'late Tusk,' saying, 'The king is with the astrologer.' The astrologer, looking into the crystal ball, says: 'You see, there are two stages: first, nothing can harm you. And then, nothing can help you anymore.'”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25754109,prof-flis-andrzej-duda-placi-za-wszystkie-grzechy-swojego.html
-- DORN: PIS IS TAKING BODY BLOWS AND STRUGGLING TO BREATHE - says in conversation with Michał Sutowski in Krytyka: “In my childhood, people used to say: 'Lusia, slowly, slowly, collect pebbles for the lighter.' Everyone is waiting for an Event that will change the rules of the game, but such figures or breakthroughs of this kind happen very rarely. For everything to suddenly become irrelevant, for new topics and new questions to emerge – this doesn't happen all the time… Continuity in politics is important; it is the fertile ground for innovations, they must grow out of something. All these matters are like body blows, things that accumulate. The player doesn't fall to the canvas, but they swell up and struggle to breathe.”
-- DOG'S BARKS DON'T REACH THE HEAVENS, BUT IT'S SOMETIMES WORTH LISTENING TO THE OPPOSITION - CONTINUES DORN WITH SUTOWSKI: “Because it's known that dog's barks don't reach the heavens, so the heavens didn't even let them speak, and no one paid attention. However, sometimes it's worth listening to what the opposition says, even if their intention is to harm those in power…”
-- DORN ON WHY PO DIDN'T WANT TO PRESSURE ENTREPRENEURS: “Perhaps they didn't want to pressure entrepreneurs during the crisis, based on the principle: 'Let even the crooks steal, as long as those who are reasonably honest don't feel an additional burden of inspections and can quietly develop their businesses...' A typically Platform-liberal approach, which is not criminal, even if I disagree with it.”
-- MS. WITEK ISN'T GRASPING ANYTHING - CONTINUES DORN: “Only that Ms. Witek clearly isn't grasping anything, even with the best intentions. Perhaps she then called someone higher up: 'Should we accept it, not accept it in this form?' Or maybe one of her advisors reviewed the NIK law and decided: 'Let's also add the nomination of a deputy, because the sly one wants to play a trick on us.' And Banaś got angry, and instead of someone at least neutral, PiS has an enemy in the position of head of NIK. A minor human error, which has turned into a situation from which it is extremely difficult to find a way out.”
-- DORN'S THEORY ABOUT KURSKI: “Jacek Kurski, whom I've known for years, even when he drives a car, compulsively breaks traffic laws. When he sees any speed limit, he has to violate it. He's like that in every area: he won't check, he won't make sure, he'll just go for it. This isn't a 'party of moderate progress within the bounds of the law,' so now that he's got his hands on powerful television money, he has to make himself and others feel good with it, without even bothering to ensure it's in accordance with the law. I'm not claiming he's stealing outright, but the hypothesis that we are dealing with significant overpayments in orders and contracts, with outsourcing, seems worth considering.”
-- THE BELIEF THAT THE GOOD CHANGE IS GOOD IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY - CONTINUES DORN WITH SUTOWSKI: “Polls are the first and most serious threat. There are many elements here that significantly weaken the basic justification for these governments, namely that the 'good change' is good. The good change was good because good, or at least familiar, people came along who care about the ordinary person, are reasonably honest, are putting things in order, and, most importantly, don't put themselves on a pedestal. And the hate-mongering scandal already showed that these good people are looking out for themselves, that they don't care about the state. Talking about a gang war is an obvious exaggeration, but the analogy of noble feuds, where one has control over a fragment of the state and uses it to raid another part of the state, undoubtedly applies here.”
-- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Daniel Rotfeld, Marta Kuligowska, Barbara Bubula, Piotr Markiewicz, Dorota Gawryluk.
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