state of play: 02/28/2020

POLITICAL GAME: Gądek on Veto Possibility: "The President Cut Off the Topic at the Headquarters," GW: Beer to Gain PLN 160 Million from Sugar Tax Exemption, Karnowski: Opposition's Hysteria Will De Facto Freeze the Campaign

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SIEMONIAK ON THE QUESTION OF SCHETYNA: - HE BECAME THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE LOWER SILESIAN REGION OF THE CIVIC PLATFORM. -- KACZYŃSKI RULES OUT EARLY ELECTIONS AND THAT TUSK LIVES IN A REALITY THAT NO LONGER EXISTS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/28/ -- AT NOON IN THE CIVIC CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS ON KRUCZA STREET, KIDAW-BŁOŃSKA'S SPOT WILL BE PRESENTED - CLOSE TO THE PEOPLE. -- WHY DID THE GOVERNMENT EXCLUDE FLAVORED BEER FROM THE SUGAR TAX, AND HOW WAS THIS PRIVILEGE WON? - Leszek Kostrzewski, Piotr Miączyński in GW: “One would think that in such a situation, the government should strive to impose a levy on all beverages containing sugar. Meanwhile, excise beverages have been excluded from the act. – This means that beverages containing significant amounts of sugar, sweetened after the fermentation or distillation process, i.e., both flavored beers and, for example, flavored vodkas, will not be subject to the new fee. Frankly, I don't understand how they managed to win this privilege,” says Krzysztof Brzózka, former head of the National Agency for Alcohol Prevention: “Due to the presence of maltose, beer has a glycemic index of 110, which is 10% higher than pure sugar!” -- GW ON THE REVENUE SHORTFALL FROM THE TAX: “Brzózka (currently an expert at the Mazovian Association of Abstinence Societies) submitted comments to the bill and calculated that by excluding flavored beers from the sugar fee, the government is depriving itself of approximately PLN 156 million. In the case of other flavored alcoholic beverages, such as cranberry vodka – (this beverage contains about 15 g of sugar per 100 ml) – this shortfall amounts to PLN 70-80 million annually.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,25733740,dlaczego-rzad-z-podatku-cukrowego-wylaczyl-piwa-i-wodki-smakowe.html -- OPPOSITION IS FUELING HYSTERIA THAT WILL DE FACTO FREEZE THE CAMPAIGN - JACEK KARNOWSKI ON THE VIRUS: “If the hysteria surrounding the coronavirus continues to be fueled, if the opposition does not slow down, it will de facto lead to a freezing of the political campaign – in the sense that the signals sent by politicians will cease to reach the public. And this, in turn, will significantly shorten the real battle for the presidency, which, as is known, is beneficial for Andrzej Duda. Finally, the most important area for evaluating candidates will be their ability to respond to this one specific crisis, which – as I wrote above – is not so much a threat as a great opportunity for this government. Well, it once again confirms the proverb that he who digs a pit often falls into it himself. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/488984-opozycja-popelnila-wlasnie-najwiekszy-blad-tej-kampanii -- KOSINIAK DEMOBILIZES THE PRESIDENT'S ELECTORATE - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW QUOTES A PSL CAMPAIGN MEMBER: “However, our candidate has an additional advantage: he demobilizes part of Andrzej Duda's electorate,” one campaign member tells us. Many studies show that when Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz enters the electoral arena against Andrzej Duda, a portion of Duda's electorate stays home. “Now the goal is to get this electorate to the polls and vote for us. In large part, this is also the electorate of the PSL that was taken away from the PSL and deceived by PiS,” campaign members tell us. The agrarian party wants to attack the weakening President Andrzej Duda.” -- KOSINIAK'S WIFE WILL SPEAK - FURTHER IN WROŃSKI: “It is known that at the convention, alongside the PSL leader, his wife Paulina Kosiniak-Kamysz will also speak. This is also an element of competition with Andrzej Duda, who highlighted his wife Agata at the Warsaw convention. “In this case, we will show a significant advantage of our candidate, because his wife Paulina speaks – joke the PSL campaign members.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25738943,wybory-prezydenckie-2020-kosiniak-kamysz-kusi-elektorat-pis.html -- JACEK GĄDEK ON THE BACKSTAGE OF DECISION-MAKING REGARDING PLN 2 BILLION - as he writes on Gazeta.pl: “The decision is made at the highest level. A PiS politician says: – During one of the headquarters meetings, someone asked what the decision regarding the TVP funding act would be. And what? – Then Jarosław Kaczyński immediately cut off the topic. He said we wouldn't discuss it – we hear in response.” -- THE SITUATION IS CRITICAL - A PIS POLITICIAN IN GĄDEK'S TEXT: “A politician from the ruling camp says: – Voters are not interested in the issue of money for TVP. But healthcare is one of the most important issues, and PiS has failed to extinguish the opposition's narrative about the alternative: money for media or for medicine. The situation is therefore critical for the president and PiS.” -- THE SIGNATURE WOULD BE THE CULMINATION OF THE PIS DEFEAT - FURTHER IN GĄDEK: “For now, on the one hand, the PiS camp argues that the opposition is lying, that PLN 2 billion for TVP can be redirected to oncology, and on the other hand, the PiS camp – due to its own incompetence and mistakes – is forced to play in such conditions. A simple signature on the act would only seal the defeat in this area. Therefore, all other scenarios are on the table.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25736875,co-andrzej-duda-zrobi-z-2-mld-zl-na-media-publ-prezes-od.html -- IT'S BETTER TO HAVE TUSK ON YOUR SIDE, LACK OF SUPPORT WOULD WEAKEN KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKA - PROF. H. DOMAŃSKI IN AGNIESZKA KUBLIK'S TEXT IN GW: “I ask Prof. Henryka Domański, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Sciences, whether the joy in Duda's camp is justified. - It cannot be ruled out that the applause for this candidacy is an attempt to impose precisely such a negative interpretation of Tusk's involvement in the campaign - replies Domański. - Research shows that Tusk's evaluation in the mind of the average voter is moderate, and moreover, his participation in all campaigns after 2015 has not weakened PiS. On the one hand, he is perceived as an authority on international politics, a figure to be reckoned with and who can threaten the government through his influence in the EU. On the other hand, there is probably a belief that opposition parties (including the Civic Platform) would prefer him to stay away from them, although they won't say it openly. According to the sociologist, “if Tusk remained on the sidelines, it would be perceived by the public as evidence of a lack of support, which would weaken Kidawa-Błońska's chances. It is therefore better to have him with us.” -- TUSK'S POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH - PROF. IRENEUSZ KRZEMIŃSKI FOR GW: “Tusk's potential for support does not seem particularly high. Especially since over the past four years, the Civic Platform has done nothing, or at least nothing significant, to repel the barrage of often hateful and untrue accusations. The attack on the Civic Platform has become an idea binding millions of PiS supporters. It is difficult to find a response to hostile emotions. Rational arguments do not work. Speeches against the destruction of democracy and the building of a Catholic-national single-party system have not resulted in an emotionally charged image capable of countering the PiS persecution.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25737794,efekt-tuska-czy-wina-tuska.html -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE PROSPECT OF PERSONNEL CHANGES IN THE JUDICIARY AND THE OMBUDSMAN'S OFFICE: “Let's leave the malice aside, because on the time horizon there are also important matters related to specific personnel decisions. Soon, without us even noticing, they will start to bring political and electoral echoes. Ahead of the United Right camp, regardless of the presidential elections, is the choice of the First President of the Supreme Court, and a few weeks later, a new Ombudsman. I admit that I have no idea if we have completely certain names for the successors of Małgorzata Gersdorf and Adam Bodnar on the table. However, it would be good if the relevant services and institutions were already scrutinizing potential politicians, judges, or activists from non-governmental organizations today. Just as a lesson learned from the mistakes of recent months. Unless even these kinds of efforts are something that our political class cannot handle, and a Pole – as Jan Kochanowski wrote – “will buy himself a new parable, that even before the harm, and after the harm, he is a fool.” And the hands of those appointed next will not be as clean as those of Grodzki and Karczewski after the Senate presentations.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/488867-kto-najlepiej-umyje-rece-sobie-i-nastepcom-z-kadrowej-lawki -- WPOLITYCE ON BRODA - HE IS A COMMON LIAR: “Why didn't Wojciech Czuchnowski use his contacts to confirm that Piotr K. is a common liar? What did he do with the documents he allegedly possessed for 5 years? Why does he lie that "Broda" did not testify in the case of Papała's murder, accusing Nina Drzewiecka of it? This gangster did it at least five times. Or maybe all this information was known to Wojciech Czuchnowski? It's possible it was like with Patrycja Kotecka's alleged arson "on order." An arson that never happened because no such order was ever given. “And only these islands are not there,” Mr. Editor Czuchnowski.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/488930-ujawniamy-tak-czuchnowski-manipuluje-w-sprawie-koteckiej -- NORWAY WITHDREW THE GRANT FOR THE JUDICIARY - OKO.PRESS: “Norway has withdrawn from transferring 700 million kroner (PLN 292 million) to the Ministry of Justice for a justice program under the so-called Norwegian funds. The reason is the threat to the independence of the Polish judiciary.” https://oko.press/ziobro-nie-dostanie-292-mln-zl-z-funduszy-norweskich/ -- ONET ON THE EXPANDING POSSESSIONS OF COALITION PARTNERS - as Mateusz Bałuka writes: “Jarosław Gowin's party has deputies in the ministries of regional development (Kamil Bortniczuk), national defense (Marcin Ociepa), and family affairs (Iwona Michałek). Almost every second MP belonging to Porozumienie (8 out of 18) has found a place in the new government. The division of power also extends to lower levels. For example, coalition parties are getting positions of voivodeship deputies: Marcin Seksciński (Porozumienie) in the Podlaskie Voivodeship, Aleksander Socha (Porozumienie) in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, Maciej Bieniek (Porozumienie) in the Greater Poland Voivodeship.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/sto-dni-morawieckiego-rzad-od-zaplecza-analiza/3jp3ttb -- ZIOBRO IS THE BEST PAID IN THE GOVERNMENT - Wojciech Czuchnowski in GW: “Ziobro earns approximately PLN 19,000 net per month. Zbigniew Ćwiąkalski and Krzysztof Kwiatkowski (Civic Platform-PSL government), the last two Ministers of Justice and simultaneously Attorneys General, received only one salary – PLN 8,200. Later, from 2010-16, the offices of the head of the ministry and the Attorney General were separated. The PiS government returned to the combined function. In this government, Ziobro earns the most – Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's salary is approximately PLN 14,600; President Andrzej Duda's – approximately PLN 14,000 net.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25738986,dojna-zmiana-ziobry-ile-zarabia-najlepiej-oplacany-minister.html -- MUSEUM POLICY IS THE RUIN OF THE STATE - Estera Flieger in KL: “The government took over the Gdańsk institution and came for the POLIN Museum not only with the participation of the right-wing but also in an atmosphere of tacit approval from many other institutions and the conservative milieu. Yet, the museum policy of Piotr Gliński and Jarosław Sellin is the ruin of the state. It does not fit within the standards of democracy, which decays from culture, like a fish from the head. It also raises the question about the democratic intentions of the entire government, or more broadly – the ruling camp, because Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and President Andrzej Duda allow Gliński and Sellin to do all this. In my opinion, the thesis that they expect such a policy or that they “at least” like it is justified. What next after the lack of acceptance for the results of the competition for the director of the POLIN Museum, co-organized by the Ministry of Culture? Will the results of other elections also cease to be recognized?” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/28/flieger-glinski-stola-polin/ -- PINIOR SENTENCED BY THE COURT TO 1.5 YEARS IN PRISON: https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/wyrok-sadu-ws-jozefa-piniora/2793qm0 -- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Iłowiecki, Krzysztof Strzępka.

Łukasz Mężyk