-- PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN CRISIS IS A CHANCE TO FIX IT, THE PRESIDENT IS A VICTIM OF PIS'S MISTAKES - MARCIN MASTALEREK - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/24/ -- BIEDROŃ, KOSINIAK, AND HOŁOWNIA COMBINED HAVE LESS THAN KIDAWA - IPSOS FOR OKO.PRESS: “The winner is Andrzej Duda, but the result of 41% (with only 3% undecided) indicates that PiS's victory in the first round is not possible. Among the contenders, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska leads decisively (25%) and has the best chance for the second round. Biedroń (9%), Kosiniak-Kamysz, and Hołownia (7% each) combined garnered less than the Civic Coalition candidate.” -- PACEWICZ IN OKO ON A STATISTICAL TIE: “Duda does not achieve a statistically significant lead, meaning it cannot be predicted that he would win the election. In the second round, not only Kidawa-Błońska, but also Kosiniak-Kamysz, and even Hołownia, are tied with Duda, despite both performing poorly in the first-round poll. Biedroń, who was slightly more visible in the first round, loses to Duda by 10 percentage points.” -- PACEWICZ ON CLASS DIVISIONS: “The class division is clear. People who are doing better are decidedly for the opposition candidate, the poorer – for continuation. This is likely a reflection of the 500+ program and other benefit-gifts, which are perceived as a material and dignity enhancement for poorer people. Up to a certain point – rightly so. Either way, the image of a government that cares for those who are doing worse is a powerful asset for PiS. Duda exploits it in his campaign. PiS whispers a warning into the voters’ ears that the total opposition (e.g., Kidawa-Błońska) will take away your benefits if they win…” https://oko.press/dogonili-dude-przelomowy-sondaz-prezydencki-oko-press/ -- AGNIESZKA KUBLIK ANALYZES POLLS IN GW ON DUDA'S WEAKENING: “Andrzej Duda is losing both as the incumbent president and as a presidential candidate. In just one week, the difference in presidential polls between Duda and Kidawa-Błońska decreased from 22 to 17 percentage points. To examine the latest trends in presidential poll ratings, I am analyzing four types of data: Duda's ratings as a presidential candidate, confidence in Duda as president, evaluations of Duda's work as president, and the ratings of his party sponsors, i.e., PiS.” -- PIS HAS LOST THE ABILITY TO IMPOSE TOPICS ON THE OPPOSITION - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK CONTINUES IN GW: “Duda and PiS have lost the ability to impose topics on the opposition in recent weeks. Now the government camp has to explain itself every day. Either because of rising prices, queues to doctors, or disastrous results in the fight against cancer. One gesture by Lichocka broke records for popularity on social media. Lichocka showed her middle finger in the Sejm on February 13th, Thursday evening. By 8 p.m. the next day, the reach of Lichocka's gesture on social media was 70 million. On Saturday – nearly 19 million, on Sunday – 12. So, all users saw it, and not just once.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25723556,bledy-i-spadki-dudy-analiza.html -- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI FOR GAZETA POLSKA - POLITICIANS FROM OUR SIDE MUST NOW FORGET THEIR OWN AMBITIONS: “All politicians from our camp must realize that they now have to forget about their own ambitions, political careers, or any plans to expand their formations. President Andrzej Duda will only win the election if everyone works sacrificially for his success, and not look for personal benefits.” https://m.niezalezna.pl/312262-jaroslaw-kaczynski-dla-gp-tylko-wspolna-ofiarna-praca-przyniesie-sukces-andrzeja-dudy -- WESTERN PARTNERS HAVE CONCLUDED THAT PISt GOVERNMENTS, LIKE ORBÁN'S GOVERNMENT IN HUNGARY, WILL NOT BE EPISODIC, THAT THEY MUST ADOPT A LONG-TERM STRATEGY AND ENTER INTO REAL NEGOTIATIONS IN MANY ASPECTS - DR RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN CONVERSATION WITH WIADOMO.CO: “European issues were effectively handled, especially by Civic Platform in the 2018 local government elections, which greatly helped the party minimize support losses at the local level. Today, the issue of the EU has become increasingly complicated. Brexit and the situation in the EU strengthen the position of the Polish government; the Union is changing.” -- CONFLICT ON THE RIGHT DRAWS PARALLELS TO AWS - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “PiS has managed to convince public opinion not only that it is capable of governing effectively, but also that it has become a guarantor of stability. It has skillfully moved away from the role of a revolutionary party, consolidating its image as a responsible party after taking power. Internal conflict certainly does not deepen this impression. Natural conflict and dispute with the opposition are one thing – one could even say that we, the taxpayers, are paying money for it – but conflict within the political camp can evoke associations with the 1990s or the AWS governments among older voters. And in this case, there is no clear prospect of Jarosław Kaczyński stepping in and making unambiguous decisions, resolving everything at the cost of minor losses, staking his authority. In this case, legal issues concerning the Supreme Audit Office make such intervention impossible.” -- IF PAD WINS, IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO SOLVE PROBLEMS AFTER THE ELECTION - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “In a situation where Andrzej Duda is the clear favorite in the presidential election, has a relatively safe poll lead, and there is a kind of chaos among the opposition, it turned out that the beginning of the campaign is dominated by themes originating from the actions of the United Right. In the case of Mr. Banaś, one can say that these are situations that perhaps not only philosophers but also lawyers have never dreamed of. No one, when writing constitutions and lower-level legal acts, ever expected such a coincidence of circumstances. In the long run, this is not beneficial for PiS, although, of course, the period after the presidential election will be a longer period without elections, offering prospects for solving problems.” https://wiadomo.co/prof-rafal-chwedoruk-chaos-i-konflikty-poglebiaja-nieufnosc-wyborcow-dudy/ -- TIGHT BUDGET AND RISING PRICES DON'T FAVOR THE PRESIDENT - PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: “It seems the president is in a difficult situation. The tight state budget and rising prices in shops do not favor him. (...) New taxes will soon come into effect: a sugar tax and a retail sales tax. As if that weren't enough, inflation is accelerating. Prices are rising at a pace not seen in years. Andrzej Duda's claims that the price increase is temporary will not help much. Nothing influences voters' behavior as much as the state of their wallets. PiS knows this perfectly well. How to stop the decline in voter trust and sympathy in this situation? Andrzej Duda's campaign team, the government, and PiS have a tough nut to crack. Don't give bad things, but also don't give too well. In this situation, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska seems to have it easier. The most important points of her program may be related to politics: calming social moods, halting the dismantling of the justice system and state institutions. As head of state, without the support of a government favorable to her, she will not have the opportunity to shape economic policy anyway. She can only, or at least, try to block attempts to spoil it. She doesn't have to promise the moon.” https://www.rp.pl/article/20200223/EKO/302239944/1004 -- ON THE MARGIN OF PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI'S TEXT, MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI CONTRASTS CONCRETE WITH PLASTILINE: “This makes us realize that the matter is serious. People who do not understand at all how it works in Poland (unfortunately); who have never clashed with the media-political machinery they now aspire to defeat; who have not a single scar on their political body, who have never seriously faced the Third Polish Republic – and therefore lack the necessary experience and knowledge – are trying to influence Andrzej Duda's presidential campaign. Considering the stakes, they are the ones who pose the greatest threat to Duda. Because they operate on illusions. But agreed – they are not concrete. Rather, they are made of plastiline.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/488217-dlaczego-medrzec-piotr-trudnowski-nagle-zamilkl -- DON'T GET OFF THIS PLATFORM TRAIN - ERNEST SKALSKI POLEMIZES WITH ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI'S RECENT ANALYSIS THAT THE LEFT-WING TRAIN IS ESCAPING THE PLATFORM: “No one will be attracted here by abortion and all left-wing radicalism. If the Civic Platform became more left-wing and radical, it would cede ground, losing support where it is to be gained. While recognizing the importance of the left-wing agenda, it must be stated that it is not what determines the survival or demise of democracy today. PiS is building an authoritarian system step by step. There is still a chance to slow this down and create prerequisites for reversing this process. If it fails, the issue of abortion will become irrelevant.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25723901,nie-schodz-z-tego-peronu-platformo.html -- THE RESPONSE TO POPULISM MUST BE POLITICAL - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The facts are that there would be no populism if there were no problems and pathologies whose scale exceeds national borders. The facts are also that there would be no Trump, Brexit, or PiS without local phenomena. Hillary Clinton lost due to the electoral system, Brexit happened partly due to the crisis in the Conservative Party, and PiS obtained an absolute majority partly due to the eavesdropping scandal. Purely structural explanations ignore the role of chance events and also ignore the context of human emotions, which are fundamental to politics. Explanations limited to the current political struggle ignore a whole mass of processes that shape the rules of that struggle. Populism is a political phenomenon. It does not arise spontaneously from any economic situation – political forces must emerge that are able to exploit existing conditions to their advantage. The response to populism must also be political.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/24/sawczuk-populizm-sroczynski-lewica-liberalizm/ -- IN PIOTR ZAREMBA'S TEXT, AFTER THE PREMIERE OF WOYZECK AT THE NATIONAL THEATRE - A PASSAGE ON JOURNALISTIC INTERPRETATIONS OF THEATRE: “That the temptation to emotionally update the message is possible, I learned firsthand when, immediately after the premiere, someone convinced me that it was a play about 'today's times.' The mechanism of this reasoning is simple. Since Büchner fought against a patriarchal society, and PiS wants to restore it, Cieplak, who does not hide his political views, is telling us about our reality. Admittedly, not these dilemmas, not these power balances, but what harm is there in believing that it's about us? Woyzeck is disdained, the right wing also disdains. Do we need to look for more logical evidence? I have no doubt that such an interpretation will become fashionable. And at the same time, the authors of the staging themselves, the director and the director of the National Theatre, Jan Englert, argued after the premiere that the advantage of this performance is the lack of a simple, journalistic moral. Cieplak compared 'Woyzeck' to a poem that cannot be directly explained, because it must be felt. And I admit that I myself found a lot of poetry in this performance.” https://polskatimes.pl/apokalipsa-woyzeck-w-narodowym-poezja-i-pytania/ar/c15-14805694?fbclid=IwAR0c8iG9zMF9tX2i1jkQM-KC49yN55XQiM1_GYd8h-kJstLfngHxIExec8Q -- TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA REPRINTS WITHOUT A PAYWALL A RECENT INTERVIEW WITH ZAREMBA BY GAWIN ON LITERATURE FROM PLUS MINUS: “This wild capitalism is dominated by an alien element. Reymont, by the way, placed his hope in organic work in the National Democracy spirit. And finally, Sienkiewicz warned against revolution in 'Wiry,' Prus in 'Dzieci.' Reymont, already in the interwar period, wrote the dystopia 'Bunt,' which preceded 'Animal Farm' in warnings against Bolshevism, albeit an early, chaotic form of it.” https://teologiapolityczna.pl/dariusz-gawin-w-poszukiwaniu-serca-polskosci -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Zemke, Marek Król, Krzysztof Garbaczewski.