state of play: 02/20/2020
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: 'Galloping Major' Tells Opposition to Calm Down: You've Won a Skirmish, for Now; Fijołek: Finesse is Lacking; GW: Settling Scores Sicilian-Style; Wroński: Olsen Gang Goes Berserk
-- AGNIESZKA KUBLIK WRITES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA ABOUT WHAT KRZYSZTOF SKÓRZYŃSKI DISCUSSED IN FAKTY YESTERDAY – THE POSSIBILITY OF SENDING THE LAW TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL.
-- MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI ON ZIOBRO PUSHING KACZYŃSKI INTO CONFLICT WITH EUROPE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/20/
-- YOU HAVEN'T WON ANYTHING YET – 'GALLOPING MAJOR' TO OPPOSITION STRATEGISTS – CALM DOWN, YOU'VE WON A SKIRMISH FOR NOW, BUT YOU'RE CELEBRATING AS IF YOU'D WON AN ELECTION: “You haven't won anything yet. Duda is still the favorite to win the election. He could win it in the first round. He hasn't even started his campaign of promises, and he's only 12 percentage points behind, meaning he needs some voters from Konfederacja and PSL. Two snaps of Jarosław's fingers, and a third 500+ payment is on the way. So, calm down. You've won a skirmish for now, and you're celebrating as if you'd won an election.
-- SOON PEOPLE WILL BE SICK OF DERIVATIVES OF LICHOCKA'S GESTURE, LIKE AVATARS WITH WILD BOARS AND BANANAS: “Soon people will be sick of the parodies of Lichocka's gesture. Just like they were sick of avatars with wild boars and eating bananas. Remember that? Saturation kills any action, and celebrities, the most disliked social group in this part of the world, have already joined in the mocking.”
-- THE HIGHER THE OPPOSITION'S POLL NUMBERS, THE GREATER THE MOBILIZATION OF PIS VOTERS – MAJOR CONTINUES ON HIS BLOG: “Forget quantitative polls. The higher your support, the worse it is, because the game is about maximum mobilization. The worse Duda's result, the more PiS supporters will go to the polls.”
https://galopujacymajor.wordpress.com/2020/02/18/jak-z-gestu-lichockiej-nie-zrobic-avatara-z-dzika/
-- FINESSE IS LACKING – MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE PIS CAMPAIGN: “Several weeks, months, and years in power have largely led to the erosion of this resource. Perhaps it's a natural and inevitable process for any team in power for more than a moment, perhaps an unstoppable phenomenon, but some instinct, some drive (sometimes even self-preservation), and finesse are starting to be lacking. This is evident in the coordination of the message and the chaos that is creeping into daily actions (and I'm not just referring to the recent uproar).”
-- ANONYMOUS PIS POLITICIAN QUOTED BY FIJOŁEK – WE CAN'T EFFECTIVELY TAKE OVER THE NARRATIVE: “For several good days, we haven't been able to effectively take over the narrative, to respond to the opposition's low blows regarding that 'fuck you' gesture and the two billion zloty compensation for TVP. In a campaign, a few days is an eternity, and we have the prevailing belief that it will all blow over, that we need to do our own thing and move away from uncomfortable topics. Of course, we need to, but first, we need to explain clearly and honestly what it's all about, not hedge – admits one of the United Right politicians with irritation.”
-- EMBARRASSING, AT TIMES DISGUSTING, AND COUNTERPRODUCTIVE – FIJOŁEK ON TVP'S METHODS: “One could list more issues, looking at the backstage tug-of-war over the leadership of the special services, the protracted freezing of the Polin Museum's management (nothing will change within the institution itself except the director's name), and the increasingly clumsy materials on public television 'shooting' indiscriminately at actors and journalists, who are accused of alcohol problems and labeled 'pseudo-elites.' I guarantee that besides being embarrassing, and at times downright disgusting, these tactics are also counterproductive because they provoke reactions that extend beyond the potential audience.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/487658-prezentacja-sztabu-pad-pis-chce-przejsc-do-ofensywy
-- PIS CAN'T FIND A GOOD ANSWER TO THIS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RULING PARTY'S CYNICISM WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY MP LICHOCKA'S MIDDLE FINGER – IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JUSTYNA KOĆ IN WIADOMO.CO: “This event put PiS in a trap. The opposition reacted with remarkable skill, and it's they who have presented PiS with this dilemma. The ruling party has accustomed us to them allocating huge sums of money for various purposes, such as public media, party objectives, or the Church. The opposition, on the other hand, framed the issue this way: here we have hundreds of thousands of sick people who lack funds for treatment. Here the party is spending enormous sums on party propaganda, and it could be allocating those funds to help the sick.”
-- I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF PIS ADDS TO THE SICK – SMOLAR CONTINUES: “I also wouldn't be surprised if it turns out they are negotiating with Nowogrodzka to contribute something to the sick. In that case, the president could say – I signed the law because public media are important, but the sick will also receive help. A very likely scenario is also sending the entire matter to the Constitutional Tribunal to avoid an unpleasant confrontation.”
-- PIS HAS NOTHING NEW ANYMORE – SMOLAR CONTINUES: “There is nothing new, so in terms of both language and new proposals, neither PiS nor President Duda have anything to offer. This makes the contrast between the impressive form of the convention and its content even greater. However, if I were the opposition, I wouldn't look for much hope in this. Those who are not in power should present something new, fresh, and here too, we encounter certain problems.”
-- KIDAWAY HAS BOTH STRONG QUALITIES AND VOTER RESERVES – SMOLAR CONTINUES IN WIADOMO.CO: “Even if Duda tries to return to a gentle, consensual language, a large part of society still remembers the words he spoke, full of aggression and hatred, in line with the main PiS narrative. Ms. Kidawa-Błońska has strong qualities here. She also has potentially significant voter reserves among the supporters of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Robert Biedroń, and Szymon Hołownia. However, the support for the Civic Platform candidate by these voters is not at all obvious. It requires serious effort, the presentation of ideas that can persuade them to participate in the second round of elections.”
https://wiadomo.co/aleksander-smolar-pis-i-duda-nie-maja-nic-do-zaproponowania/
-- THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY IS AS TENSE AS A ROPE AND AS MUDDY AS THE BIEBRZA MARSHES – ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON THE SITUATION AT THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN: “If PiS had behaved as political strategy textbooks teach, the president would have had a clear path: he would be opening new investments, visiting Jasna Góra, organizing campfire talks for children in forests, and traveling by public transport. But none of that happened. The situation in the country is as tense as a rope and as muddy as the Biebrza marshes. They couldn't even peacefully present their campaign staff and gain political points from it, because on that day the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau raided Banaś, and the Supreme Audit Office raided the prosecutor's office. On top of that, Agent Tomek, once the favorite of Minister-Coordinator Mariusz Kamiński, lost his freedom. All of this, instead of helping and diverting attention, creates an impression of chaos and – as they used to say in the capital – sheer mayhem.”
https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/302199913-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Andrzej-Duda-w-dwoch-osobach.html
-- PIS'S INTERNAL SCRAMBLES ARE LIKE SICILY – GAZETA WYBORCZA'S LEAD STORY, W. CZUCHNOWSKI https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25713515,porachunki-w-panstwie-pis.html#S.main_topic-K.P-B.3-L.3.glowka
-- PIS VS BANAŚ. SO, WAR – GAZETA PRAWNA LEAD STORY.
-- IT'S ALREADY GONE TO THE KNIFE – headline in DGP.
-- THE OLSEN GANG GOES BERSERK – PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Someone with an antagonistic attitude towards the PiS state might compare this to the mafia world, where warring gangs wage war, raiding each other's hideouts and taking hostages. This comparison is greatly unfair. The CBA does not resemble a gang. For which gang would allow itself to be robbed of its own money, as the CBA allowed itself to be?”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25713240,gang-olsena-wpada-w-szal.html
-- THANK YOU, JOANNA LICHOCKA – JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Thank you and congratulations. How much we have talked over the years, how much ink and tears we have shed to generate justified social emotions, necessary for politicians to agree to give money to the most suffering, but unfortunately temporarily unproductive sick. No one listened. The Minister of Finance always had a hundred more urgent and useful expenses, and the Minister of Health was mainly in charge of deceiving the dissatisfied. I am almost certain that thanks to you, this will definitively change.”
-- ŻAKOWSKI ON BUSINESS VENTURES AND THE PRIVATIZATION OF HEALTHCARE: “Because it is also thanks to you that we are beginning to discover that your party, which, while in power, is responsible for public healthcare, instead of investing in it, is investing in private healthcare and propaganda that is meant to mask this, pitting one against another, so that we don't pay attention to your little businesses.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25712604,dziekuje-joannie-lichockiej.html
-- THE COMPOSITION OF THE CAMPAIGN STAFF INDICATES A LOWERING OF TEMPERATURE – TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN GAZETA PRAWNA: “What does this composition tell us? First and foremost, that there will be an effort to lower the temperature of the dispute – perhaps not in the general sense, but at least on topics that are inconvenient for PiS and could harm the campaign. Politicians from Zbigniew Ziobro's Solidarna Polska were not given prominent positions in the campaign staff. Yet, it is precisely this faction that demands a tough course on judicial reforms. In this distribution, the winner is PiS's second coalition partner, Jarosław Gowin's Porozumienie, which advocates for softening the discussion around the courts. It is with them that the head of the campaign and the spokesperson responsible for media relations are associated or linked. Andrzej Duda's own statements are also conciliatory in nature, the opposite of what the president has presented in recent weeks.”
-- THE CONVENTION WAS IMPRESSIVE BUT FULL OF EMPTY WORDS – ŻÓŁCIAK CONTINUES: “After the impressive, albeit empty, inaugural convention, it is time for President Andrzej Duda's first concrete actions.”
https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1454784,zolciak-o-starcie-kampanii-andrzeja-dudy-kurs-na-ocieplenie.html
-- DUDA WANTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTER, BUT KAMIŃSKI CORNERED HIM – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “During the conference where Andrzej Duda's campaign staff was presented, the president appeared to voters in a velvet version: as a calm, moderate politician, not seeking enemies and concerned about the quality of public debate. At the same time, the Minister of Interior and Administration, Mariusz Kamiński, mobilized the services under his command and reminded voters what the everyday reality in the PiS camp is like.”
-- DANIELEWSKI ON CZARNEK BEHIND THE SCENES OF THE CAMPAIGN: “However, the credibility of this metamorphosis can be undermined by the campaign's background. During the convention at the Expo hall, in Duda's immediate circle, the media discovered an extreme right-wing activist with connections to European neo-fascists. Now, in the second echelon of the president's staff is the former voivode of Lublin and current PiS MP, Przemysław Czarnek. Czarnek has made anti-Semitic, homophobic, and anti-Ukrainian statements to his name.”
https://oko.press/duda-oglosil-sztab-chcial-zrobic-zwrot-ku-centrum-ale-kaminski-przycisnal-go-do-sciany/
-- BRUTAL FIGHT WITHIN OUR OWN RANKS, IN WHICH THE SERVICES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE, PIS HAS EXPERIENCE IN THIS – TOMASZ KRZYŻAK IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “However, one can try to divert attention from him. Force the electorate to look elsewhere. With all due respect to the work of the CBA officers, who have been digging through the president's statements for months, their operation must be read in this context. After the MP's finger started living its own life, someone else pressed the button with their finger, hoping that Banaś would overshadow Lichocka. And PiS, with the help of the special services, would wipe away one of the blemishes from its image and, in the process, present itself as a party for whom law and justice are most important. But Marian Banaś also has fingers. 'By chance,' on Wednesday, Supreme Audit Office controllers appeared at the National Public Prosecutor's Office to begin an inspection of the 'Work for Prisoners' report – a program implemented by the Ministry of Justice. Coincidence? No. A brutal war within their own ranks, in which the services will play a significant role. PiS has experience in this.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200219293-Krzyzak-Czolgi-CBA-kontra-Pancerny-Marian.html
-- ZIOBRO TAKES OVER THE CBA, LET THE GAMES BEGIN – MACIEJ MIŁOSZ IN GAZETA PRAWNA: “Colonel Andrzej Stróżny from the Katowice delegation of the Internal Security Agency. This is a man connected to National Prosecutor Bogdan Święczkowski, and therefore to Zbigniew Ziobro. This candidacy has not yet been reviewed by the parliamentary committee on special services, so one can venture to say that this is not a candidate who has been prepared for his role for a long time. However, he is certainly one who has the full support of the ruling camp.”
-- ZIOBRO CUTS MARIO DOWN TO SIZE – MIŁOSZ CONTINUES IN DGP: “The undisputed fact is that Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro has just taken over the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau. Until now, it was the domain of Mariusz Kamiński, who had grown significantly politically in the last few months and, from a 'regular' minister coordinating services, had also become the Minister of Interior and Administration. Ziobro's takeover of the CBA has somewhat reduced the sphere controlled by Mario. (...) Returning to the undisputed facts: Ziobro 1 – Kamiński 0. In any case, please prepare your popcorn, the games (opposition politicians used the phrase 'gang war') are, in my opinion, open.”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykul-prasowy/6443841,ziobro-przejecie-cba-igrzyska-opinia.html
-- MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA ON THE BENEFITS OF THE MINERS' PROTEST – CHEAP COAL FROM RUSSIA FOSTERS THE ILLUSION THAT WE ARE BEHAVING RATIONALLY: “When miners (and with them the Lewica club) demand a ban on importing raw materials from Russia (and preferably any import at all), they are acting objectively correctly. Firstly, if we are poisoning ourselves, it is better for Polish miners to profit from it than for miners from Australia, Kuzbass, or Mozambique, sorry, Winnetou, to do so. Secondly, the previous possibility of importing cheap raw materials from abroad allows us to indefinitely postpone the transformation of what is most important, namely not mining, but energy. It allows us to foster the illusion that since the raw material is cheap on the market (and how else could it be, if it comes from open-pit mines in Australia or the Siberian Republic of Khakassia?), then by continuing to burn hydrocarbons, we are behaving economically rationally, unlike the supposed fantasists of unreliable photovoltaics, wind farms, or nuclear power.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/strajk-gornikow-import-wegla-transformacja-energetyczna-michal-sutowski/
-- WE NEED TO CUT IMPORTS, NOT POLISH COAL PRODUCTION – MACIEJ KONIECZNY FROM PARTIA RAZEM IN CRITIQUE: “Polish energy companies should use Polish coal to the greatest extent possible. Coal mined in Poland, unlike foreign coal, provides good quality jobs in the country.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/maciej-konieczny-lewica-import-wegla-z-rosji-gornicy/
-- NEW NATIONALISM IS THE BASTARD CHILD OF NEOLIBERALISM – GRZEGORZ KOŁODKO IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “One cannot hide xenophobia and chauvinism behind the façade of patriotism, including economic patriotism, for too long. One cannot halt globalization with shouts of 'America first!' or 'Vive la France!'. The slogan 'Poland for Poles' also has no good future, and Alternative für Deutschland is not a creative alternative for Germany, but a futile attempt to cure one disease with another. (...) Among these opponents is also neoliberalism, but one does not fight stupidity with stupidity, or error with error. That is not the way. I know that new nationalism will lose, though I don't know when and at what cost. Unfortunately, I don't know if and when – although it should and could – new pragmatism will win, because it also has its enemies. These are not only neoliberalism and new nationalism, but also state capitalism and populism, protectionism and provincialism, particularism and private interests, selectivity and short-sightedness. Therefore, the fight must continue, and the best weapon in these ongoing struggles for rationality and progress – because that's what it's all about – is precisely new pragmatism.”
https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/302199915-Grzegorz-W-Kolodko-Nowy-nacjonalizm--bekart-neoliberalizmu.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Mroziewicz, Łukasz Grass, Marcin Cieślak, Wiola Paprocka, Błażej Lenkowski, Adam Rogacki.
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