-- GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA'S BIRTHDAY. -- KIERWIŃSKI ON A SECOND-ROUND DEBATE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/18/ -- KAMILA BARANOWSKA ON TWITTER: The issue has resonated with people outside the political bubble. And I'm surprised there's no response to the crisis situation. PiS is acting as if nothing happened. Does anyone there really believe that presenting the campaign team this week will cover up the middle finger incident? https://twitter.com/BaranowskaKam/status/1229686025884196866?s=20 -- THE PRESIDENT SEEMS UNABLE TO MAKE SUCH UNCONVENTIONAL GESTURES AS A VETO - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN DGP: "At the convention, the president tried to respond indirectly, calling for higher standards in politics, not offending anyone, and for work on a national oncology strategy. But he has said all that before. This requires special, spectacular measures – like vetoing a law subsidizing television and allocating at least some of those sums to the sick. The president seems incapable of such unconventional gestures. He intended to win this campaign by doing what he has done so far. Traveling around Poland and posing for photos with people. And even more so, PiS, which would have to authorize this action, especially in the second phase, is not ready for it. The decision there is made by one person, who is thinking more and more conservatively." -- THE OPPOSITION IS TAKING OVER THE NARRATIVE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “I agree with Janusz Schwertner, an Onet journalist, who said in the Polsat studio that perhaps for the first time in five years, the opposition has taken control of the narrative. This gesture, this sign is understood by everyone, and posters showing a finger pointing at the PiS logo will likely be a hit until the end of the campaign.” -- LICHOCKA AS A LIVING MEME SYMBOLIZING ARROGANCE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “These polls were conducted before Saturday's convention, where the president was presented in the role of James Bond in the now-famous photo, and before the 'Lichocka's finger effect.' And again: one can recall similar sins of politicians and people associated with the opposition as much as one wants. Joanna Lichocka chose a completely inappropriate time and place. She opened several debates simultaneously: about neglected healthcare and about pumping money into propaganda television. But above all, she became a living meme symbolizing arrogance.” -- NO RESEARCH SHOWS THE EFFECTIVENESS OF HARDENING THE COURSE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES:“PiS politicians are aware that the hard line presented at the beginning of the year, such as with the law disciplining judges, must be softened. In particular, the president himself should not be involved in it in the form he has been so far. Although this hard line was presented as a recipe for winning over supporters of the right-wing Confederation in the second round. However, no research indicates the effectiveness of such a strategy.” -- ONLY ZIOBRO BENEFITS FROM TOUGHNESS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “And if we consider the poll mentioned at the beginning, one could say: toughness did not pay off. Today, perhaps Zbigniew Ziobro benefits from it in future struggles for dominance in the right-wing camp. But if the ruling camp loses in May, it will likely have to call parliamentary elections within a year. The president is capable of effectively thwarting the plans of the government majority.” -- FOR DUDA TO WIN, HE MUST BREAK AWAY FROM THE PLEBISCITARIAN LOGIC - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “We are facing a brutal, chaotic campaign with an uncertain outcome. A campaign about everything, where the model of the presidency will not be the issue, but a plebiscite. And yet, President Duda, to be sure of victory, must break away from this plebiscitary logic at least a few times – in favor of some unconventional behavior that transcends division. He sometimes tries. His statement about the admissibility of registered partnerships was such a step, although it antagonized the far-right voters needed in the second round. The matter must concern something important for all or almost all Poles.” -- KIDAW A MAKES MISTAKES, BUT IS A DANGEROUS OPPONENT - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN DGP: “Kidawa may perform poorly, make mistakes. But she is a dangerous opponent.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykul-prasowy/6442896,zaremba-wybory-prezydenckie-duda-opinia.html -- PiS CAMPAIGN TEAM MEMBERS ARE GOOD CRAFTSMEN, BUT THE CONVENTION DIDN'T HIDE PROBLEMS; THEY RETURNED WITH DOUBLE THE FORCE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “PiS campaign and PR staff gave their all, showing once again that they are excellent craftsmen. However, today the emotions are completely different. The convention is over, and politics has returned to its old tracks. Perhaps PiS strategists made a mistake by believing that a grand political spectacle could cover up all the mistakes and problems that the ruling camp has been struggling with for months. PiS failed to cover up these problems with the convention; on the contrary, after its conclusion, all the problems return with double the force. And Saturday's show is increasingly starting to look like a well-prepared, but still a false start, which was not followed by substantive details.” -- TYING DUDA TO PiS IS A MISTAKE - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Furthermore, I am ready to put forward the thesis that PiS leaders made another mistake at the convention, which may hinder the current president's fight for re-election. The politicians from the PiS leadership who appeared on Saturday, led by Jarosław Kaczyński, emphasized that Andrzej Duda's victory is a necessary condition for continuing the good change. In this way, they strongly linked the current head of state with the ruling party. Meanwhile, it is facing increasingly serious problems. The result of the aforementioned problems are further drops in opinion polls. If PiS campaign staff fail to stop the outflow of voters from the ruling party, such a close tie between Duda and Law and Justice may prove to be a trap in May.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302179914-Szuldrzynski-Falstart-Andrzeja-Dudy.html -- IF THE CONVENTION WAS MEANT TO PROVIDE A NEW IMPULSE, IT WAS A DEFEAT - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “If Saturday's PiS convention, endorsing the party's support for Andrzej Duda, was intended to provide a new impulse to the president's campaign and push his rivals onto the defensive, then it is already clear that it was a defeat.” -- I DO NOT SHARE THE ENTHUSIASM FOR THE CONVENTION'S TECHNICAL ASPECTS - PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES: “I do not share the enthusiasm of some publicists for the technical aspect of the convention. Indeed, everything proceeded without disruption, the lighting and visual effects worked smoothly, and the scale of the event was truly impressive by Polish standards. On the other hand, the event itself did not go beyond the predictable pattern. The three introductory speeches were packed with praise for the president, but it is difficult – despite their considerable length – to point out any fragments that would be memorable.” -- THE CONVENTION'S RICH FORM DOMINATED OVER CONTENT - PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES: “Andrzej Duda's closing speech at the convention can also hardly be considered groundbreaking. The president primarily boasted about the achievements of the past five years, while simultaneously arguing that Poland still has a long, long way to go to reach perfection and faces many challenges. As some commentators rightly pointed out, the head of state's speech lacked concrete, inspiring program promises. As a result, the convention's rich form decidedly dominated over its content.” -- THE TIE TO PiS IS A PROBLEM - PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES IN KL: “Another problem Duda faces after the convention is his unambiguous 'tie' to the ruling party. When the president ran for election five years ago, he was the representative of a party that had been on an upward trend for some time. In this sense, Duda's victory helped PiS, and the growing support for PiS at the expense of PO helped Duda. Today, however, the presidential elections do not start the electoral marathon, but end it – and after five years of Law and Justice rule. What is worse, current approval poll results suggest a decline in support for the ruling party, which could also drag down Duda's ratings.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/18/konwencja-pis-andrzej-duda-podsumowanie-pawlowski/ -- THE BIGGEST THREAT TO DUDA IS THE PiS HARDCORE BASE - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN KLUB Jagielloński: “The biggest threat to Duda today are the actions of the PiS activist base, the media-political hard core of the 'good change' ecosystem. It is the Karnowski brothers, Joanna Lichocka, Zbigniew Ziobro, and Jacek Kurski who may take away his chances for re-election. And President Kaczyński himself may hinder the president more than help.” -- YOU CAN'T WIN WITH AN IRON ELECTORATE - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Let us remember – the president, unlike the ruling party, needs to convince at least half of the voters. You cannot win here with an 'iron electorate,' but you must have the ability to attract a significant portion of those who did not vote for United Right in the parliamentary elections.” -- IF TURNOUT CONTINUES TO GROW, 10 MILLION VOTES WILL BE NEEDED TO WIN - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “In the second round of the 2015 elections, Andrzej Duda received over 8,630,000 votes – still nearly 600,000 more than PiS in the last parliamentary elections, when Jarosław Kaczyński's party broke the historical record for support for a single list in the Third Polish Republic. If turnout in May is the same as in October, he will need over 9,340,000 votes, which is almost 1.3 million more than PiS received in the autumn and 700,000 more than five years ago. And these are still cautious estimates – because historically in the Third Polish Republic, turnout records have always been broken precisely in the second round of presidential elections. If Poles' electoral activity continues the upward trend of recent years, even 10 million votes may be necessary for success in the second round. It is truly difficult to imagine that such support can be gained by a candidate associated with all the most controversial actions of the government in the last four years.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/02/17/boze-strzez-mnie-przed-przyjaciolmi-jesli-andrzej-duda-przegra-to-przez-pis-owski-beton/ -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE PRESIDENT'S SOCIAL LISTENING: “Saturday's convention of Andrzej Duda was organized with due pomp, and the president presented himself as a politician who is not at risk of detachment from reality (like the incumbent head of state in 2015). I think this is one of the key parts of President Duda's speech: that 'Poland is indeed changing for the better, but it is still far from perfect,' that 'it's not like people only praise,' that, for example, healthcare is an area crying out for attention and action. There was a bit of political self-examination in it, but above all: there was social listening.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/487302-jeszcze-po-konwencji-pad-nie-odkleil-sie-od-rzeczywistosci -- AN UNSURPASSED LEVEL FOR THE COMPETITION - MICHAŁ WRÓBLEWSKI IN WP ON THE PiS CONVENTION: “Anna Plakwicz and Piotr Matczuk were responsible for it. They are co-creators of the successful campaigns for PiS and Andrzej Duda in 2015, who have elevated the organization of campaign events to a new level – currently unsurpassable for the competition. Plakwicz and Matczuk are former employees of the PiS press office, former directors in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, and long-time members of the Law and Justice electoral campaign team. Both were close collaborators of Beata Szydło for a long time.” -- IT'S ALL THEM - WRÓBLEWSKI CONTINUES IN WIRTUALNA POLSKA ON THE LIFE AND WORK OF PiS ADVISORS: “However, the potential of the Plakwicz-Matczuk tandem has not been wasted by the PiS leadership. They were behind the successful, acclaimed PiS convention in 2018, when the head of government presented the 'Morawiecki Five.' A year later, they prepared the most spectacular convention of 2019, when the famous 'Kaczyński Five' appeared for the first time (including 500+ for the second child and 13th pension). It is this program – according to many – that was the biggest 'game-changer' in Polish politics last year, which decided the spectacular victory of the ruling party in the European Parliament elections. The slogan of the EP campaign – 'Poland at the heart of Europe' – is also the merit of Anna Plakwicz and Piotr Matczuk and other campaign team members. They co-created the scripts for the speeches of key PiS politicians, worked on the convention's setting, and chose interior color schemes. This was the case this time as well. It was Plakwicz and Matczuk, whose activity is also noted by 'Rzeczpospolita,' along with the presidential campaign team and photographers – as we learn – who were the originators of the famous photo from Duda's convention.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-kulisy-konwencji-pis-sztab-andrzeja-dudy-zdradza-wirtualnej-polsce-plany-na-kampanie-bedzie-program-6479613118044289a -- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON PiS'S DETERMINATION - writes in RZ: “The high presence of PiS politicians in both public and private radio stations testifies to their efficiency and great determination in defending the government's image. It also testifies to the depth of the breach in the party's wall made by an careless and overly gesticulating MP. But the reaction of United Right is also a lesson for the opposition. Where were its politicians between 7 a.m. and 10 a.m. on Monday? Did they capitalize on the defensive position PiS found itself in? Of course, the media invite whom they want, but can one really believe that suddenly everyone wanted to hear what the frontline soldiers of the ruling party had to say? They worked on it. They used their contacts. They let it be known that they were ready... Because PiS operates like a machine. There is no need for separately prepared 'talking points' for politicians of the ruling party to know what to say. They learn quickly and check the party line themselves.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/302179906-Dabrowska-Palec-poslanki-Joanny-Lichockiej.html