state of play: 02/11/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski: An attempt to incite panic to influence the outcome; Wroński: Ziobro is gaining strength, fighting for the whole stake; Stankiewicz: A bold interpretation that the president heals crooked institutions with a signature alone.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- WE ARE AN AMBITIOUS NATION THAT WANTS TO CO-CREATE THE EU - THE PRIME MINISTER SAID DURING A FB DISCUSSION: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/10/premier-jestesmy-ambitnym-narodem-ktory-aspiruje-do-wspoltworzenia-wzrostu-i-wspolnoty-politycznej-w-ramach-unii-europejskiej-pytany-o-historie-premier-cytuje-przemiany-liwiusza-herberta/ -- MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI ON NOT HEARING OUTRAGE FROM PIS WHEN THE PRESIDENT WAS CALLED KOMOROWSKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/11/ -- ZIOBRO IS FIGHTING FOR THE WHOLE STAKE, GAINING STRENGTH - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “He is now gaining strength again. He can count on the support of some PiS media, Kurski as head of TVP, Radio Maryja, former Prime Minister Beata Szydło, and former Minister of National Defense Antoni Macierewicz. Thus, he can play for the whole stake once again, presenting himself as the most dynamic, most radical, but also the most loyal and best continuator of the party leader's ideology.” -- NOT WANTING TO INTERVENE, KACZYŃSKI AFFIXED THE CONVENTION WITH HIS SEAL - WROŃSKI CONTINUES: “At the same time, Ziobro presents himself as a loyal acolyte of party leader Jarosław Kaczyński – effectively putting him in a no-win situation. Because according to some press reports, Jarosław Kaczyński was surprised by Ziobro's convention. He did not appear himself. A letter in his name was read by the head of PiS's executive committee, Krzysztof Sobolewski. The letter states, among other things: 'We will not deviate from this path [of judicial reforms], because the Republic and its citizens need it. We will not yield to internal or external pressure.' Party leader Kaczyński, unable to interfere with Ziobro's convention, decided to resolve the matter by affixing his seal to it.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25684872,ziobro-walczy-o-cala-schede-po-kaczynskim.html -- DON'T WHISTLE AT THE PRESIDENT - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “It is true that politics evokes emotions, and politics during an election campaign evokes special emotions. However, there are situations when whistling at the president is inappropriate. (...) If we approve and replicate the behavior of the other side, we will not change the Republic for the better, and someone may eventually ask a fundamental question: What is the difference between them and us?” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25684986,nie-gwizdac-na-prezydenta.html -- HE SIGNED BECAUSE THE LAW PROTECTS HIMSELF - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The President signed the law disciplining judges because it protects him. It prohibits the examination of judicial nominations signed by him, which are flawed. Challenging them would be a spectacular disaster for Andrzej Duda.” -- A BOLD INTERPRETATION THAT THE PRESIDENT HEALS DEFECTIVE NOMINATIONS AND CROOKED INSTITUTIONS WITH HIS SIGNATURE - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “However, Duda has a safeguard if the prohibition is ineffective. In an interview with the weekly 'Wprost,' he began to argue that even if there is something wrong with the lists of support for the National Council of the Judiciary, it will not matter for the status of judges appointed so far. 'It won't matter because they received judicial nominations from the President of the Republic. Period,' he stated. This is a bold interpretation of the constitution, in which the president, with his signature alone, heals crooked institutions or defective nominations. Another matter is that with these words, Duda indirectly admitted that there is indeed something wrong with the signatures. -- STANKIEWICZ ON MANOWSKA AS PRESIDENT OF THE SUPREME COURT: “Expecting a boycott of the elections by the old judges of the Supreme Court, PiS prepared a procedure whereby judges nominated by this party could present their own candidate to the president. Of course, this will be a candidate loyal to Duda and PiS. For example, Professor Małgorzata Manowska, former deputy to Zbigniew Ziobro in the Ministry of Justice.” -- HE WILL HAVE A FEW MORE WEEKS TO SMILE AND TALK ABOUT AGREEMENT: “Will such a brutal game hurt Duda in the presidential elections? The ruling camp hopes that once they manage to elect their First President of the Supreme Court, the temperature of the conflict will decrease. And Duda will have a few more weeks of campaigning to start smiling and talking about agreement.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/najpierw-zemsta-potem-usmiechy-162024 -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON ATTEMPTS TO INCITE PANIC TO INFLUENCE ELECTION RESULTS: “Not even two weeks have passed, and 'Rzeczpospolita,' a newspaper radically hostile to the United Right camp in recent years and at least twice having amplified information unfavorable to the right, 'reported from the CJEU' about a supposed fine of 2 million euros per day threatening Poland if it does not 'freeze' the operation of the Supreme Court's Disciplinary Chamber. The disinformation operation was cut short quite quickly: This information does not come from the Court of Justice of the EU, the Court's press services informed PAP. I fear this is just the beginning. The Belka/Sadurski plan is currently the opposition's only chance, so it will be implemented. Attempts to incite panic through real or apparent actions by external institutions to influence the presidential election results will be repeated. It is worth keeping a cool head.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/486349-czy-zaczyna-sie-realizacja-planu-belkisadurskiego -- GREATER INTEREST IN PSL AND KOSINIAK - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GW: “For the first time since Mikołajczyk, PSL won a parliamentary seat in Warsaw (Władysław F. Bartoszewski), Wrocław (Jacek Protasiewicz), Gdańsk (Marek Biernacki), and Kraków (Agnieszka Ścigaj). Now PSL is pushing forward – it wants to join forces with organizations of entrepreneurs and local government officials, and all those who hold conservative-liberal views. One thing is already clear – more people are attending meetings with Kosiniak than attended meetings with the leader in previous campaigns. And what's more, rural residents do not have a numerical advantage here. It seems that PSL has conceded the countryside and farmers to the Law and Justice party and is focusing on fighting for the souls of entrepreneurs, local government officials, teachers, and doctors.” -- WŁADEK MOBILIZES US AND GIVES US WINGS - A PSL ACTIVIST QUOTED BY NASZKOWSKA: “Regardless of the result Kosiniak achieves in the presidential election, even if it's well below 10%, his re-election as party leader in the autumn seems predetermined. Today, there is no one suicidal enough to seriously run against Kosiniak. His position is unassailable. – This is the moment! Władek mobilizes us, gives PSL wings – says one of the members of the national council.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25683801,psl-przed-wyborami-kosiniak-prezydentem-kamysz-prezesem.html -- BUDKA QUICKLY AND EFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED PLATFORMA, PIS FEARS A REFERENDUM AGAINST MONOPOLY OF POWER - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Budka quickly and efficiently organized Platforma. Will he now lead Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska to victory? Three months before the presidential elections, Andrzej Duda has a much weaker starting position than his predecessors. His supporters are not growing, and he is conducting an inconsistent campaign. It is impossible to win over Confederation voters while considering signing the partnership law. It is difficult to win over centrist voters if even a significant portion of PiS voters oppose a tougher stance on judicial reform. Kidawa-Błońska may benefit from Duda's gaffes, and as polls suggest, she is most likely to reach the second round. PiS fears most that the elections will be a plebiscite against PiS's monopoly of power, personified by President Duda.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/302109912-Budka-na-szczescie-dla-PO-to-nie-Tusk.html -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE IMPORTANCE OF "NORMALS": “Mobilizing one's own voters and searching for "normals," as they are described in less official conversations among campaign managers, politicians, and advisors, are the main tasks for these 90 days remaining until the first round of the presidential elections. This is only seemingly a lot of time, which ticks mercilessly and makes it harder each day to break through one's own bubbles. Another issue is that the aforementioned "normals" start taking an interest in politics a few to a dozen days before the elections – in this logic, both Kidawa-Błońska's gaffes, Hołownia's clumsiness, and the mistakes of other candidates may only have a limited impact on the next bubbles of voters.” -- ON MAY 10, MANY CAMPAIGN MANAGERS MAY BE SURPRISED - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “And so it may turn out that until the very end, the campaign managers of one candidate will believe that the elections will be won by removing Judge Nawacki tearing up a resolution and fanning the flames in the dispute over the courts, the advisors of another that the key to convincing Poles is 'fatigue with PO-PiS,' and a third that the elections will win themselves because, after all, voters will not trust a candidate who is a walking gaffe. On the evening of May 10, many of them may be greatly surprised.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/486289-90-dni-do-wyborow-kto-odczyta-oczekiwania-stojacych-z-boku -- ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA QUOTES SŁOWOMIR NITRAS ON HOW JACEK CICHOCKI BLOCKED IN VITRO: “At this point, it is worth noting that Hołownia's campaign manager is Jacek Cichocki. He is a former head of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister during the governments of Donald Tusk and Ewa Kopacz, known for his conservative views. According to PO MP Sławomir Nitras – and his words are confirmed by press reports – Cichocki was one of the main opponents of introducing regulations for the in vitro procedure that would allow the use of this method. Among his opponents in this matter was Kidawa-Błońska.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/11/kidawa-blonska-biedron-holownia-program-porownanie-pawlowski/ -- JAKUB BODZIONY ON HOŁOWNIA'S SITUATION - WRITES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Hołownia is not a rock star who rebels against the system, but a Catholic celebrity without solid media and political backing. He cannot afford mistakes and lack of professionalism, and at the same time, he must distinguish himself enough not to be a bland and unassertive candidate. And as the recent case of the controversial spot showed – a person who has the potential to harm many rivals can quickly find themselves under fire, both from liberals, the left, and conservatives.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/11/holownia-wybory-prezydenckie-kampania-bodziony-komentarz/ -- SHOWING A DIFFERENT AXIS OF DISPUTE - TOMASZ SAWCZUK RECONSTRUCTS THE LEFT'S STRATEGY - in Kultura Liberalna: “In Biedroń's campaign team, one can hear that Platforma will play with the simplest idea: the last elections are coming, the polexit is coming. 'But that's not something people will believe. Maybe 15 percent of Poles think that way, no more,' explains a Biedroń collaborator. He adds, 'this type of tactic is also unpromising because Andrzej Duda will not be as sharp in the rest of the campaign as he is now.' It seems, however, that attacking Kidawa-Błońska will not be the goal of the Left's presidential candidate's campaign. The main task is to show that a different axis of dispute can exist – and in these elections, it is easier to say that because we are voting for a specific face. As Dziemianowicz-Bąk notes, 'building a new kind of community is not only in the interest of the left but also in the interest of the state.'” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/11/biedron-nie-wygra-ale-wzmocni-lewice/ -- THE ISSUE OF EU FUNDS WILL BE A CAMPAIGN TOPIC - TOMASZ KRZYŻAK IN RZ: “EU officials assumed that the potential loss of substantial funds would deter the government. PiS did not and does not care about these grumblings. It has rebuilt the judiciary in its own way and will not back down. It knows that the topic of the EU budget is important and delicate for all EU countries. Everyone – even the smallest player – has something to gain. Politics. Hard and brutal. But today, there is strong indication that the mechanism will be adopted because the majority of member states want it. Unanimity is not required for this decision, so Poland, even in alliance with Hungary or a few other countries, cannot block it. That is why PiS is trying everything to ensure that the EU regulation is 'toothless,' so that its provisions can be interpreted to our benefit. And there is no doubt that the issue of EU funds will become one of the topics of the presidential campaign that has just begun.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302109913-Krzyzak-PiS-nic-sobie-nie-robi-z-pomrukow.html -- KRZYSZTOF SZCZERSKI ON WANTING A EUROPEAN RUSSIA - says in an interview with Magdalena Cedro and Grzegorz Osiecki in DGP: “So you assume that Russia cannot be a normal European country. Such a country would return Crimea. I would like a European Russia.” -- THOSE WHO ARE FURTHEST FROM RUSSIA WANT TO BE FRIENDS WITH IT - SZCZERSKI CONTINUES IN DGP: “Advocates of friendship with Russia are those who are furthest from it. For Russia to be able to shake Europe's hand, it must either do so over the heads of its neighbors, because they are the least convinced, or it must first sort out its relations with its neighbors. The former has ended tragically for us, which is why we claim that only the latter path is appropriate for these relations to be full-fledged.” -- WE EMERGED VICTORIOUS FROM RUSSIA'S ATTACK - SZCZERSKI CONTINUES: “In my opinion, we emerged from this with our heads held high. The Russian side made many mistakes, and we managed to avoid them. This shows that effective actions can be taken in such a situation. Russian mistakes stemmed from the radicalism of falsehood. These were not subtle attempts to tell history in a positive way in their own terms, but a brutal and radically false narrative about times that many people still remember, but not all. Yad Vashem apologized, we gained the support of the Americans, Macron. This was to some extent a surprise to the Russian side.” https://www.dziennik.pl/artykul-prasowy/6439355,szczerski-sankcje-rosja.html -- RZ ON THE REFORM OF THE COMPANIES CODE THAT SASIN IS PREPARING: “On Tuesday, the Ministry of State Assets (MAP) is to present expert teams that will work on broad changes to the regulations concerning companies – both state-owned and private. The reform, fronted by Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin, aims to improve ownership supervision over state-owned companies and modernize business regulations.” https://www.rp.pl/Firma/302109908-Nowy-kodeks-spolek-handlowych---rady-urosna-w-sile-a-spolki-maja-na-tym-skorzystac.html?cid -- WE WILL STRENGTHEN SUPERVISORY BOARDS - JANUSZ KOWALSKI, DEPUTY TO SASIN IN RZ: “Within a few months, we want to develop new tools to strengthen the competencies of supervisory boards. I will use my experience from working in the management board of PGNiG and the supervisory board of KGHM Polska Miedź. The expert team will decide whether, for example, it is justified to create an expert fund for the supervisory board to supervise audits in a given company even more independently. Strengthening the supervisory board's oversight tools over subsidiary companies is also important. Currently, this area poses practical problems.” -- WE WANT THE SUPPORT OF 460 MPS - KOWALSKI CONTINUES: “There is a real demand from businesses for improved regulations. Therefore, we will invite a wide range of outstanding experts and practitioners – representatives of business organizations, employers, and universities – to consultations. We will consider all best practices and hope that the solutions developed will gain the support of the entire business community and all 460 MPs.” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1421947-Zreformujemy-prawo-po-partnersku.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Marian Zembala turns 70, Maciej Sandecki, Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski.

Łukasz Mężyk