state of play: 02/10/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Gowin: It's no secret that when it comes to concepts and the direction of reforms, Minister Ziobro and I have completely different approaches, Naczelny RZ: Ziobro wants to take radical voters from PiS, Szczęśniak: PO no longer appears to be

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MATA AND KOMASA SPEAK WITH ONE VOICE: THE YOUTH ARE FED UP - JAN LUŚNIA AT THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB: “The hope remains that 'Patointelligence' will not end up like 'Sala Samobójców' [Suicide Room] – a favorite film of school counselors who very often try to teach using it, without understanding it themselves. At this moment, unfortunately, apart from fascination with sincerity and a hollow search for references to jaded elites, there is no sound of self-flagellation from any side, which is necessary to process the harm that an entire generation may grow up in. Therefore, reality demands a deeper look at young people, their problems, and aspirations; new methods of intergenerational dialogue are also needed because traditional forms have failed. Therefore, it is worth looking at Mata through the lens of Komasa's work and vice versa, because both creators, despite a significant age difference, delve into the issues of growing up, upon which a solid foundation of disappointment with the surrounding world is built.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/02/09/mata-i-komasa-mowia-jednym-glosem-mlodzi-maja-dosc/ -- TOMCZYK: COURTS ARE ATTACKED BY THOSE WHO MAY END UP BEFORE THEM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/10/ -- PO NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE SUBMERGED IN CHAOS - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “Saturday's PO convention is also a challenge for Lewica. The 'young faction' gathered around Budka can, at least partially, absorb the emotions that likely motivated some people to vote for Lewica in the fall. PO no longer appears to be submerged in internal chaos. https://oko.press/nowa-energia-nowa-platforma-nowa-polska-kidawa-blonska-mam-dosc-walk-kogutow/ -- WITH SUCH OPPONENTS, A THIRD TERM IS POSSIBLE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE PO CONVENTION: “As if a computer were spitting out answers according to some total algorithm. In addition, the announcement of a fight against religion in schools (in its current form), the announcement of weakening the protection of life, and a mass of complaints about the government. However, Mr. Borys Budka as the head of Civic Platform is good news for the United Right – extreme, predictable, thoughtless, arrogant, and even delighted with himself (he repeatedly praises himself and his talents in an almost shameless way). I'm starting to think that with such opponents, a third term for the United Right is possible.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/486238-pan-budka-jest-jednak-dla-prawicy-dobra-wiadomoscia -- POLEXIT WAS CONSCIOUSLY CREATED AS A RESPONSE TO THE RIGHT-WING SOCIAL PROGRAMS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Where did this monstrosity of a debate about a supposed Polexit come from? Who created this Frankenstein? I have no doubt that somewhere in the opposition staffs, this dividing line was consciously drawn as a prescription for the social programs of the Law and Justice governments, their effectiveness in fighting corruption, economic successes, as well as the growth of Poland's international position in recent years. It was apparently decided that there was no point in preparing better programs, competing on the credibility of electoral promises, or fighting for votes. It is enough to… scare Poles. To blackmail them. To stir up the emotions of their voters in the country, to mobilize friends and Donald Tusk in Brussels to legitimize this scenario. It's not going well, Poles haven't bought this political trash, and the EU and individual member states are also not taking it seriously.” -- IT IS AN EXPRESSION OF CONTEMPT FOR THE INTELLECT OF VOTERS - KARNOWSKI FURTHER ON POLEXIT: “So what is it all about? Why this game? Forgive me for using a stronger word. I consider it an expression of contempt by part of the opposition and its media towards Poles. Only with contempt, with the conviction of the voters' stupidity, can one explain such stubborn adherence to such a deceitful slogan, with no connection to reality. Poles truly deserve more.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/486158-straszenie-rzekomym-polexitem-to-wyraz-pogardy-wobec-polakow -- NO STATE CAN ALLOW THE LEGALITY OF JUDGES TO BE QUESTIONED BY OTHER JUDGES - JAROSŁAW GOWIN IN CONVERSATION WITH DO RZECZY: “Let’s say it clearly: no state can allow some judges to question the legality of the appointment of other judges! We must not allow the selection of a new president or vice-president of the Supreme Court to be paralyzed. And for these two reasons, I consider the new regulations necessary for the legal security of citizens. Regarding other issues covered by the amendment, we will have a process of dialogue lasting many months. We must take into account the decisions of the European Commission and the ECJ, which is why we need a channel ensuring minimum communication between legal circles and the government camp.” -- AFTER THE ELECTIONS, EMOTIONS WILL SUBSIDE AND COMPROMISE WILL BE POSSIBLE - GOWIN FURTHER: “We have reached a situation that could bring serious long-term damage to the state and citizens. And I am a statesman. And a realist, which is why I realize that seeking compromise during an election campaign is – to put it mildly – extremely difficult. But after the elections – I believe they will be won by Andrzej Duda – emotions will subside somewhat, and some space for talks will open up. It is true that today few are willing to sit at the same table. In the long run, however, there is and will be no other way. Please note that the resolution of the three chambers of the Supreme Court – although it causes a state of legal chaos – effectively cuts off both key risks I mentioned.” -- GOWIN ON THE PRECEDENT OF THE RZEPLIŃSKI CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL, WHICH EVALUATED THE SUPREME COURT RESOLUTION: “Precisely for the interest of citizens, I consider the decision of the president and the prime minister to submit the Supreme Court resolution for evaluation by the Constitutional Tribunal to be apt. And it is not true that the Tribunal does not have such powers. I will recall that in 2010, the same body, under the chairmanship of Andrzej Rzepliński, repealed a Supreme Court resolution protecting the immunity of those judges who, during martial law, sentenced opposition members retroactively, i.e., based on regulations enacted only after the alleged 'offense' was committed. Therefore, we have a precedent, and I hope that the Constitutional Tribunal will also invalidate this resolution.” -- I HAVE A DIFFERENT APPROACH THAN ZIOBRO - GOWIN FURTHER IN DO RZECZY: “It is no secret that when it comes to concepts and the direction of reforms, Minister Ziobro and I have completely different approaches. However, the government must act in solidarity. That is why I and the MPs of Porozumienie supported this amendment.” -- I SEE ROOM FOR COMPROMISE - GOWIN FURTHER IN DORZECZE: “To put it briefly: I consider the appeals by opposition MEPs for financial sanctions to be applied to Poland to be disqualifying. However, I myself – as the leader of one of the three coalition parties – see room for compromise and believe that in the long run, it is necessary. However, it cannot concern matters such as the president's prerogative to appoint judges or questioning the legality of KRS resolutions, but it can cover, for example, the shape of the disciplinary judiciary or the new mandate of the Disciplinary Chamber.” -- QUESTIONING THE RIGHT-WING'S PRO-EUROPEANISM WILL HARM DUDU - GOWIN FURTHER: “One can pretend not to notice the surveys indicating that only just under half of PiS voters support the recent judicial reforms. But conducting politics with closed eyes, as some radical commentators urge us to do, rarely ends otherwise than with a crash into a wall. The United Right should be concerned that the opposition is escalating the dispute over the judiciary with such joy and zeal. Since they see an opportunity in this for themselves, the question is whether the whole matter is beneficial for our camp in the long term? You don't really need to escalate the dispute over the courts to effectively fight for the preservation of the Christian ethos in Poland, increase the level of state security, or boost prosperity. And it is in these areas that our governments are celebrating their greatest triumphs. I think Poles notice and appreciate this. Any steps that would undermine the image of the United Right as a patriotic camp, firmly fighting for Poland's raison d'état, but also pro-European, would harm Andrzej Duda's election chances.” -- DISCUSSION OF THE CONVERSATION WITH GOWIN IN INTERIA: https://fakty.interia.pl/prasa/news-gowin-o-ziobrze-w-do-rzeczy-mamy-odmienne-podejscie,nId,4318515 -- PLAYING FOR THE SUCCESSION AFTER KACZYŃSKI - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “Zbigniew Ziobro's Solidary Poland is doing everything to maximally polarize society on the issue of the judiciary. Ziobro's party is already playing for the succession after Jarosław Kaczyński, but in the process, it may harm Andrzej Duda's re-election.” -- NIZINKIEWICZ'S THEORY ABOUT AN INSURANCE POLICY: “Politicians from Solidary Poland explicitly state in a conversation with 'Rzeczpospolita' that signing the judicial bill is Andrzej Duda's insurance policy. If the government changes in the future, the current president, even after leaving office, could be held accountable for violating the constitution, including, for example, for not accepting the oath from elected Constitutional Tribunal judges or for using the right of pardon for persons convicted by an irrevocable verdict. If the new government turns out to be exceptionally principled, unlike the representatives of the PO-PSL government who prevented Zbigniew Ziobro from being brought before the Tribunal of State, it could make life difficult for Andrzej Duda. Ziobro is to be the guarantor of Duda's immunity.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/302099955-Prawdziwe-powody-Andrzeja-Dudy.html -- ZIOBRO IS TAKING OVER PIs VOTERS - NACZELNY RZ BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA: “The leader of Solidary Poland intends to take over the more radical part of the electorate from Jarosław Kaczyński's party. It is for this purpose that the harsh language of his party's Saturday convention serves.” -- ZIOBRO IS DRIVING KACZYŃSKI INTO A DEAD END - CHRABOTA FURTHER: “Firstly, Ziobro is driving Jarosław Kaczyński into a dead end. He is securing 'carte blanche' for himself for any changes in the judiciary, and Kaczyński, by blindly endorsing the minister's ideas, will no longer be able to stop the avalanche. Secondly, and more importantly, the leader of Solidary Poland intends to take over the more radical part of the electorate from PiS. This is a plan likely spread over many years. It is meant to give Ziobro real power in future elections (if Duda falls in May, then not long from now). No longer 18 MPs, but at least several dozen. Then he will be the one dictating terms. And the succession on the right – regardless of the chairman's will – will become a fact.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302099970-Chrabota-Sukcesor-Zbigniew-Ziobro.html -- RESPONSE TO GOWIN'S SOFTENING - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Alleluia and to war” – this was the message from the Solidary Poland convention. A convention which – as Zbigniew Ziobro said – resulted from the “need of the moment.” This, in turn, was caused by two things: Jarosław Gowin's efforts to soften the stance on the courts and the growing risk for Zbigniew Ziobro that European Union institutions would once again overturn his reforms.” -- A SUCCESSFUL BUT NOT SPECTACULAR SHOW OF STRENGTH - GĄDEK FURTHER: “The political calendar indicates that emotions and stakes are growing. The May presidential elections will consolidate the entire ruling camp, even if it is internally divided, like Zbigniew Ziobro's Solidary Poland and Jarosław Gowin's Porozumienie. In the Supreme Court, also in May, a turning point will likely occur – the term of the First President Prof. Małgorzata Gersdorf is ending, and the ruling camp will ensure that the new First President extinguishes the dispute over the judiciary. Before this turning point, Ziobro thus organized a generally successful, but by no means spectacular, show of strength.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25678415,alleluja-i-na-wojne-przed-przesileniem-ws-sadow-ziobro-urzadzil.html -- ON HOW THE MAY ELECTIONS CAN CHANGE POLITICS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The result of the May presidential elections could change the Polish political landscape in two ways. A victory for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska would maintain the duopoly on the party scene, but a significant portion of power would shift to the democratic opposition. Polarization would likely remain at a similar level.” -- WILL THE MONOPOLY DECREASE? - SAWCZUK FURTHER: “The victory of any of the democratic opposition candidates reduces the scale of PiS's monopoly. Biedroń's victory seems structurally impossible. Hołownia's victory would have positive short-term effects, but it is unclear what its significance would be in the next few years – the tendency towards apolitical balancing between PiS and PO might not necessarily bring positive consequences for liberal democracy. Kidawa-Błońska's victory is a step forward from the perspective of defending the rule of law in Poland, but it does not provide a prospect of long-term political stability.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/10/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-kidawa-blonska-biedron-czy-holownia/ -- THE MORE CANDIDATE HOŁOWNIA LOOKS INSIDE, THE LESS PRESIDENT HOŁOWNIA IS THERE - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA IN KRYTYKA: “Remember that the more Pooh looked inside, the less Piglet was there? And it's the same with Hołownia. The more candidate Hołownia looks inside, the less President Hołownia is there. Paradoxically, it would help him the most in the campaign if he didn't look inside at all, if he didn't engage politically in this political race.” -- THE SECRET TO TRUMP'S AND ZELENSKY'S SUCCESS - BEING A MYSTERY THAT NO ONE MANAGES TO SOLVE BEFORE TIME COMES - WIŚNIEWSKA FURTHER: “Trump is more complicated, but overall there is a common feature in his and Zelensky's campaigns – few specifics, lots of show. From specifics – one or two phrases repeated endlessly. And that's it. In essence, until election day, no one knew Zelensky's views and it was unclear what he actually wanted to do in politics, besides being president, of course. The secret to success sometimes lies in 'being a mystery that no one manages to solve before time passes.' Nothing sparks the imagination like a mystery. It is precisely the mystery and a certain enigmatic nature of the candidate that allows us to infer a lot. The trick is to maintain this mystery until the end, not to crack, never to show what's in the black briefcase, unlike Stan Tymiński.” -- HE FAILS TO MAINTAIN THE MYSTERY - WIŚNIEWSKA'S CONCLUSION ABOUT HOŁOWNIA: “It may turn out that it would have been better for the candidate when the only search result for 'Hołownia program' was 'mam talent' [I have talent]. Because Hołownia could count on a good result if he managed to maintain this mystery of a candidate from nowhere, with an unknown political project. The less mystery, the harder it is – in the case of such a candidate.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/agnieszka-wisniewska/im-bardziej-kandydat-holownia-zaglada-do-srodka-tym-bardziej-nie-ma-tam-prezydenta/ -- WŁADYSŁAW KOSINIAK-KAMIYSZ ATTACKS COMPETITORS - THEY WILL AVOID DEBATES: “I am counting on a debate with other presidential candidates. I have asked representatives of the parties nominating my competitors if they are ready to engage in a debate. So far, apart from Mr. Dziambor from Konfederacja, I have not received clear declarations. I feel that some candidates will avoid debates because they are afraid of such a confrontation. Debate is the essence of elections, especially presidential elections.” -- I WON'T THROW EVERYTHING IN THE BIN - KOSINIAK ON PiS'S ACHIEVEMENTS: “I would like to preserve what has been done well. I will not throw everything in the bin. Of course, there will be candidates who will say that everything that happened in four years was bad and everything must be rejected and we must return to the past. I am not proposing a return to the past, but a choice of the future, hope, peace, discussion, and dialogue. Surely everyone will say that they want to be the president of all Poles. I also want to be president for all our compatriots, but I also want to be president of dialogue and understanding.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/486206-nasz-wywiad-kosiniak-kamysz-licze-na-debate-z-innymi -- MARX SWEETENED - PIOTR SEMKA IN DO RZECZY ON LEWICA: “Lewica – the new one led by Adrian Zandberg and the old one led by Włodzimierz Czarzasty – is sensitive to any return of fascist content to public space, considering it a threat of return to the crimes of World War II. In the other direction, this does not work. Lewica sees nothing disturbing in its formation's past. The new left believes that many stereotypes can be reheated. Blame capitalism for the Australian bushfires. Turn a blind eye to the praise of revolutionary violence in Marx's works and consider that Marxism had nothing to do with the crimes of the Soviet empire.” https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/129002/marks-na-slodko.html -- PAD POSTPONES PROFESSORIAL NOMINATION OF BILEWICZ - GW (GAZETA WYBORCZA): “The President has been holding back the awarding of the title of professor to Dr. hab. Michał Bilewicz for over a year. He is questioning the decision of the Central Commission for Degrees and Titles and its reviewers. In reality, it's about his views.” (...) What is disliked? Bilewicz's research includes antisemitic attitudes in Poland and hate speech. For his lecture “Epidemics of Hate Speech. How close are we to March ’68?” delivered at the POLIN Museum of the History of Polish Jews in March 2018, the scientist was sharply attacked by pro-government media. And PiS senators Artur Warzocha and Rafał Ślusarz asked the Ministry of Culture what steps it intended to take “to end this debate which defames Poland?” They called Bilewicz's lecture “scientifically dubious theories such as secondary anti-Semitism are presented.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25680715,profesor-wyklety-michal-bilewicz-andrzej-duda-chce-wplywac.html -- GW ON BANAS'S NEUTRALIZATION: “Filing charges, a law, suspension, and then a long investigation. There is no need to rush with an indictment – this is how one of the lawyers involved in the work on 'Plan C' presented the agenda for neutralizing the NIK president. As our interlocutor explains, PiS will start with an amendment to the Act on the Supreme Audit Office. It will include a provision that filing charges in a criminal case results in the suspension of the Head of the Chamber. The parliamentary committee for state control is to consider the project.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25679827,marian-banas-zapowiada-kontrole-wiec-pis-chce-szefa-nik-zneutralizowac.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Tadeusz Ferenc, Krystyna Łybacka, Alicja Olechowska, Adam Żyliński, Jacek Janiszewski, Zuzanna Falzmann.

Łukasz Mężyk