-- NO ONE WANTS POLEXIT, POLES ARE EURO-ENTHUSIASTS - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI ANALYZES IN GW: "To end with a strong emphasis, let's recall the CBOS research (chart 3), which systematically analyzes (most recently in April 2019) Poles' support for Poland's membership in the EU. The results of a poll conducted a few days ago by Kantar are almost identical, according to which 89% believe that Poland should remain in the EU, and only 6% that it should leave. The Eurobarometer Plus report from June, not read to the end, plus (likely) a poorly formulated question, caused a false alarm. There is no fire. Not even a spark. Poles, as before, so now, want to be in the Union." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25658432,zla-wiadomosc-dla-zwolennikow-polexitu-polacy-to-euroentuzjasci.html -- BREXIT ALSO STARTED WITH WORDS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "The example of Great Britain showed that total criticism of Brussels can lead to the creation of such strong anti-EU emotions that it can end with leaving the Community. The Polish right uses similar rhetoric." -- PERHAPS IT'S BETTER TO PURSUE A POLICY THAT EXCLUDES POLEXIT? - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: "Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki assures that Polexit is impossible. I am willing to believe that both Prime Minister Morawiecki and President Jarosław Kaczyński cannot imagine Poland outside the EU. However, besides desire, there are also consequences of actions. For the sake of the current political dispute, PiS turns Brussels and Berlin into scapegoats, blaming them for all our problems. By embroiling Poland in a dispute with the European Union over judicial reform, it leads to a conflict whose consequences are difficult to predict today. Therefore, it would be better if the Prime Minister, instead of convincing with words, pursued a policy that would make Polexit impossible." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200209919-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Polexit-zacznie-sie-od-slow.html -- SZYMAŃSKI ON MACRON'S UNPRECEDENTEDLY BROAD AGENDA IN POLAND - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/02/03/ -- MACRON ENDS THE HATRED? - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI ON RZ JEDYNKA: "Our sources indicate, however, that the thawing that is emerging can easily be torpedoed by Macron's emotional declaration on the rule of law, for example, in a speech he will give on Tuesday at the Jagiellonian University. Especially since he is unlikely to hear words of readiness for compromise from Andrzej Duda. With the French President come the ministers of foreign affairs, economy, finance, defense, and climate. Because the French have broad plans for Poland, including in nuclear energy or high-speed rail networks. French entrepreneurs, who have already invested about 20 billion euros here, admit that they encounter no obstacles on the Vistula." https://www.rp.pl/Dyplomacja/200209924-Macron-w-Polsce-Francja-chce-uspokoic-relacje-z-Warszawa.html -- SHARP DISPUTES, BUT ALSO INTERESTS - PIOTR MOSZCZYŃSKI IN GW ON MACRON IN POLAND - writes in GW: "Beyond areas of conflict, there are also zones of convergence of interests between Poland and France, to which Paris attaches considerable importance – as does the sober assessment of Poland's potential significant role on the European stage. It expresses only astonishment and regret that – unlike in previous years – Poland is currently unable to leverage this advantage well." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,25658497,prezydent-macron-dzis-w-warszawie-jutro-w-krakowie-ostre-spory.html -- ZIOBRO PLAYS FOR HIMSELF AND HARMS DUDA - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "The Minister of Justice behaves as if he were in the opposition's headquarters. He plays for himself and harms Duda. Poles' trust in Ziobro is growing (CBOS poll), but at the cost of support for PiS and Duda. The head of Solidarna Polska is building himself up for the post-Kaczyński era. Meanwhile, the ruling party is not certain of the president's victory. If it were otherwise, they would have left the judicial bills until after the elections, without risking the re-election of their candidate. What will PiS do to make Duda win? The ruling party counts on a short campaign." https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/200209936-Jacek-Nizinkiewicz-Ziobro-wzmacnia-sie-kosztem-Dudy.html -- IF PO WERE FOUNDED TODAY, IT WOULD HARDLY GET EVEN 10% - ŁUKASZ WARZECHA IN FAKT: "Large parties do not collapse from month to month. PO still has the most supporters – the usual inertia effect is at play here, because if it were founded today with its current cadres and programmatic proposals, it would be hard for it to gain even 10 percent. It also has very generous subsidies, as these – according to the law on parties – are granted proportionally to the votes obtained in elections. It also has local structures that hold up well, especially in large cities. All this means that for now, it will not cease to exist, but that does not mean Budka can sleep soundly. PO must, however, show as soon as possible that it is capable of winning clearly again." https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/lukasz-warzecha-o-sytuacji-po/40s517n -- TOMASZ SAWCZUK ON LEWICA, WHICH IS BECOMING SIMILAR TO OTHER PARTIES - writes in Kulturą Liberalną: "On the other hand, there are two Zandbergs, and you never know which one you'll get. Half the time, the politician seems slow, sluggish, and devoid of a clear political agenda, politely answering uninteresting questions from journalists. Only from time to time is he like he was at the podium on the day of the exposé – he livens up and gives the impression that he really has a task to perform. It seems that in the coalition trio, SLD is becoming the dominant formation over time. Among the media activities of left-wing politicians, the performances of Włodzimierz Czarzasty are most memorable. The left-wing coalition no longer stands out in any particular way on the Polish party scene, gradually becoming more and more similar to existing parties." -- BIEDROŃ IS NOT TRYING TO EXPAND THE ELECTORATE BUT SERVES THE LEFT'S VOTERS - SAWCZUK FURTHER IN KL: "By clinging to the word 'left,' Biedroń removes the creative element from his operational model, which was once his advantage. From now on, he must behave 'like a left-wing politician,' and his supporters will be the first to hold him accountable for it. The campaign turn towards issues of ideological identity suggests that Biedroń must first and foremost serve the narrowly defined electorate of the parliamentary Lewica coalition, rather than strive to expand the voter base. Such an approach is risky. It seems probable that the most active part of this electorate needs to feel symbolically represented in the public sphere more than to achieve political success." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/02/03/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-czy-lewica-ma-pomysl-co-dalej/ -- PROF. ANDRZEJ ZOLL ON THE SUPREME COURT RESOLUTION - TALKS TO JACEK GĄDKA ON GAZETA.PL: "It is difficult to consider that since such judges were nominated by the KRS elected in violation of the constitution, they can hold the office of judge. A very good stance was taken here in the Supreme Court's resolution, which assessed that the invalidation of thousands of decisions by judges elected by the current KRS would lead to a very serious violation of the rights of participants in court proceedings. The Supreme Court's resolution is accurate and shows how to escape the chaos. I myself support the solution from the Supreme Court's resolution: that the rulings issued by these judges up to the date of the resolution are valid, but the error should not be continued, so these judges should refrain from further rulings." -- THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL'S DECISION WILL BE LAWLESS - ZOLL FURTHER: "However, I have no doubt that the Tribunal will agree with Madam Marshal and the Prime Minister. The ruling will, however, contradict the constitution, because the CT has strictly defined powers within it, and going beyond them is unlawful. This ruling will not be a source of law in any way - it will be, but it will be unlawful. Unfortunately, in Poland, we are dealing with a layered violation of the constitution." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25651374,prof-andrzej-zoll-w-polsce-mamy-niestety-do-czynienia-z-pietrowym.html -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI WITH A GUIDE ON HOW TO GAIN THE FAVOR OF ELITES: "First, you will attack Law and Justice, and most strongly, personally President Jarosław Kaczyński. The system rightly sees the main force of the pro-Polish camp in his steadfastness and political intelligence. Vulgarity, rudeness, false accusations, and lies are welcome. Second, you will adhere to the so-called 'Neumann doctrine'. Then, I assure you, everything will fall into place, the courts will be friendly to you, the commercial television will love you, the newspaper with an ethos (long since preserved in formaldehyde) will forgive everything, understand, praise, a well-known left-wing editor will invite you for a radio chat. You will also find earnings. Incidentally, it is hard to understand why Neumann's doctrine, so useful for the opposition, has not yet been printed in some guide, why it has not been carved on the town halls in Tczew, Gdańsk, Warsaw, and many other cities. It would simplify many people's lives." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/485183-krotki-poradnik-dla-aferzystow-i-tych-co-wymiekaja -- THE ROUND TABLE ON JUDICIAL REFORM IS TREATED AS A KIND OF LIFE RAFT, SHOULD THE CJEU APPLY PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND MAŁGORZATA KRYSZKIEWICZ IN DGP: "Today, for PiS and the Presidential Palace, three issues are crucial at this moment: preventing the questioning of the status of judges appointed by the new KRS, defending disciplinary courts, and allowing judges of the Supreme Court nominated by the new KRS to choose candidates for the First President of the Supreme Court. – If a new First President of the Supreme Court is elected, one of the main goals will be achieved. Perhaps then the president will be more willing to seek compromise – says our interlocutor from the government camp. In this context, Friday's forum is treated as a kind of life raft, should things turn out badly from PiS's point of view. This bad development for the ruling party is, for example, the CJEU's decision on precautionary measures." https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/6431016,pis-sedziowie-opozycja-sedziowie-wymiar-sprawiedliwosci.html -- POLAND'S WEAKENING POSITION IN INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS HAS AN IMPACT ON BUSINESS - ŁUKASZ WILKOWICZ IN DGP: "Since the beginning of Law and Justice's rule, Poland has been steadily losing its position in international comparisons. The entire Central European region is also falling in them. In the democracy index recently published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, Poland fell to 57th place, its worst in over a decade of this ranking. 'For the first time, Poland is ranked behind Hungary. The conservative-nationalist Law and Justice has continued its efforts to transform the country into an "illiberal democracy," including by limiting the independence of the judiciary and consolidating media ownership in Polish hands,' the authors of the ranking wrote." -- THIS SHOULD GIVE US FOOD FOR THOUGHT - WILKOWICZ FURTHER: "Our 'ranking of rankings' can be considered a game. But the fact that a few years ago we would have been ahead of France and Latvia in such a summary, and now we are behind them, should give us food for thought. Even more food for thought should be the fact that a few years ago we also outranked Macau and Mauritius. Today they are higher. High indicators of optimism should not blind us. The state of our wallets gives us reasons to be satisfied. But when it comes to improving the economy's potential, we are simply wasting time." https://www.dziennik.pl/artykul-prasowy/6431152,ranking-polska-czechy-gospodarka-praworzadnosc.html -- WE CANNOT AFFORD TO HAVE DEFENSE DECIDED BY ONLY ONE POLITICAL FORCE - MACIEJ MIŁOSZ IN DGP: "I don't know who should take the first step. Should it be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, President Andrzej Duda, who was also at the signing of the agreement on Friday, or the aforementioned Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak, or finally, representatives of the opposition. It is obvious, however, that nothing like this is likely to happen before the elections. It seems that the president of the next term, regardless of who it will be, should invite representatives of all political options to a dialogue on defense. And not because he is magnanimous or wants to rise above divisions. The reason is very prosaic. Although our economy is growing, we cannot afford to have defense decided by only one political option. The consequences of neglecting such a dialogue could be too costly." https://www.dziennik.pl/artykul-prasowy/6431195,obronnosc-zakup-f-35-blaszczak.html -- POLAND IS LARGELY DEFENSELESS - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: "Poland is currently largely defenseless, although state propaganda suggests that we already have F-35s, Patriot launchers, and HIMARS. The cost of the F-35 is much higher than the annual procurement expenditures, and the acquisition of just two Patriot batteries also exceeds this annual budget. We don't know how much the next six will cost – because eight batteries are the minimum to defend Poland's territory. And at the same time, the Ministry of National Defense, unable to cope with the repairs of Leopard 2A4 tanks, is spending as much as 1.75 billion PLN on the overhaul of museum T-72s at the Bumar Łabędy plants." -- ALTHOUGH WROŃSKI SEES LOGIC IN BŁASZCZAK'S POLICY: "One can even see some thought in the actions of the Ministry of National Defense, headed by Minister Mariusz Błaszczak. Presumably, in his opinion, Poland, an important country on NATO's eastern flank, should be as compatible as possible with the armed forces of a key ally, the United States, and its latest weaponry. That is why we are concentrating the battlefield management system around the IBCS currently being introduced by the US army. That is why we are buying the Patriot system, HIMARS launchers, and most recently, the most modern fifth-generation F-35 aircraft, nicknamed 'flying laptops.' https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25658672,kraj-pozbawiony-obrony-powietrznej-nie-wiadomo-czy-wykorzystamy.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Kosiniak-Kamysz, Michał Kołodziejczyk, Błażej Poboży, Krzysztof Baszczyński, Rafał Muchacki, Zbigniew Rau.