state of play: 01/08/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Fijołek on PAD's campaign team, Środa asks the Left and Civic Coalition for compelling visions, Węglarczyk suggests Wałęsa for Yad Vashem

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER APPEARS IN PARLIAMENT, 1 PM MEETING WITH PRESIDENT AT BBN - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/01/08/ -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE MAY 10TH ELECTION: “When Marshal of the Sejm Elżbieta Witek announces the date of the presidential elections (likely to be May 10th), the official election campaign will commence.” -- PAD DOES NOT WANT THE CAMPAIGN STAFFERS FROM PREVIOUS PiS CAMPAIGNS - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “From the vicinity of the Presidential Palace, a rather unequivocal declaration is being made regarding a certain course correction in how Law and Justice has conducted its recent election campaigns. As we hear, the president is keen for both the agenda of topics and the style of campaign management to be on his terms. Therefore, Andrzej Duda has rejected the proposal that, as happened in previous PiS campaigns, his campaign would be co-created by individuals recently associated with the company Solvere and responsible for a series of spots and campaign ideas during various electoral races. -- FIJOŁEK ON THE PAD-PJK MEETING AND SOBOLEWSKI'S ROLE: “At the same time, however, discussions between the Presidential Palace and Nowogrodzka Street are intense and very detailed, with Krzysztof Sobolewski, chairman of the Law and Justice executive committee, participating on behalf of PiS. In the coming days, President Andrzej Duda will also meet with Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński to agree on the main strategy to be adopted for the coming months at the highest level – this is what we hear from the Presidential Palace.” -- FIJOŁEK ON THE BACKGROUND OF THE PREPARING CAMPAIGN: “Therefore, one should not expect any nervous reactions or attempts to reset the existing strategy in Andrzej Duda's campaign. As of today, the president and his team want to finalize the last technical details of cooperation with Law and Justice, and after the election date is announced, they will launch the campaign at full steam: with a campaign that is at least slightly adjusted compared to, for example, the autumn or May elections of 2019. We should know the names of the politicians and activists who will form Duda's campaign staff in January.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/480900-kampania-prezydent-duda-tuz-przed-startem-o-reelekcje -- THE PRESIDENT CHOSE THE LESS FATAL SOLUTION - BARTOSZ WĘGLARCZYK on Onet: “Both solutions are fatal, but the president chose the less fatal one. Less fatal for the dignity of his office and less fatal for Poland. Which does not mean it is a good solution. The president and the Polish authorities are responsible for finding themselves in such a situation.” -- POLAND LET ITSELF BE OUTPLAYED BY THE RUSSIANS - WĘGLARCZYK CONTINUES: “Poland has allowed itself to be outplayed by Russian diplomacy, which, through an oligarch linked to the Kremlin, is organizing an event in Israel formally called the Holocaust Forum, but which is in fact an alternative ceremony on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz camp in 1945. An alternative one, because these commemorations should be held in Poland, but President Putin does not want to come here. So he is going to Israel for an event organized by his acquaintance, where he will speak to numerous guests from around the world, likely once again, recently, undermining the narrative, including Poland's, that Russia is isolated due to its aggression against Ukraine.” -- WĘGLARCZYK ON WAŁĘSA AS AN ENVOY - IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO THE POLISH-POLISH WAR: “The Polish government, in the face of this latest image crisis, could have reached for another solution. It is not possible due to the failure to adopt the IPN act, but simply due to the ongoing Polish-Polish war. This solution would be Lech Wałęsa. Imagine that President Andrzej Duda decides not to go to Israel, but sends former president Lech Wałęsa as his official representative. And it is he, the hero of 'Solidarity' and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, who asks the organizers of the Holocaust Forum for an opportunity to speak on behalf of Poland. Even if the Forum organizers did not agree, President Wałęsa could then appeal to the conscience of the world media, always interested in his opinion. Imagine a press conference by Lech Wałęsa outside the Yad Vashem Institute, during which the former president corrects Vladimir Putin's lies…” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/opinie/prezydent-rp-nie-ma-wyboru-i-do-jerozolimy-pojechac-nie-moze-ale-w-tym-potrzasku/5jxp6tc -- PiS WILL PLAY ON FEAR AND SECURITY ISSUES - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ in RZ: “PiS will play on fear and security issues to win Duda's re-election. And the opposition lacks widely respected representatives dealing with foreign policy and security. The ruling party may therefore have an absolute monopoly on statements on international matters, as evidenced by the president's reluctance to convene a National Security Council. There is fear in Poland of our eastern neighbor and a romantic love for the USA. And while the government reacts with sensitivity to Putin's attacks, in the case of the USA-Iran conflict, PiS might be blinded by their love for Trump. Poland's readiness to support the USA militarily could strengthen PiS and Duda in the election year. The question is whether, for short-term political gains, the ruling party will not endanger the country's security and entangle Poland in an unnecessary conflict?” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/301079913-Jacek-Nizinkiewicz-Czy-PiS-zaslepi-milosc-do-Trumpa.html -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON BEING HUNTED BY TVP - writes in RZ: “When considering the accusations against Grodzki, it is also worth remembering the hate campaigns, the hunting of successive individuals and groups, and all the indecencies and manipulations that have appeared in the public television news services over the last four years.” -- MAYBE SOMETHING WILL STICK TO GRODZKI - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “The public is therefore left to its own intuition: to believe Grodzki or public television, which accuses him of corruption. And this is likely what this whole matter is about. Not the truth, but fueling a political war – perhaps something will stick to the Marshal.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200109592-Michal-Szuldrzynski-A-nuz-sie-cos-do-marszalka-przyklei.html -- ON WITNESSES IN THE GRODZKI CASE AND BEING HUNTED - ADAM ZADWORNY in GW SZCZECIN: “Is every person who worked for the system during the PRL era untrustworthy for the 'good change' media? Former SB officer Piotr Wroński, who lends credibility to the 'good change' conspiratorial theories, is trustworthy (he regularly appears on TVP and Telewizja Republika). The Institute of National Remembrance considers former SB functionaries credible who testify in lustration cases (their testimonies are decisive in court cases of false lustration). There is also Stanisław Piotrowicz, a communist prosecutor who prosecuted people for possessing anti-government leaflets during martial law, and was given a position in the Constitutional Tribunal by PiS. Or, looking closer to Szczecin, PiS MP Michał Jach: when the Polish Army used tanks to restore order to 'Solidarity,' he received medals for exemplary service in the communist army (under PiS, he became the head of the National Defense Committee in the Sejm).” https://szczecin.wyborcza.pl/szczecin/7,34939,25575042,jak-radio-szczecin-i-tvp-szczecin-zaszczuwaja-90-latka-ktory.html -- WHERE ARE YOUR COMPELLING VISIONS - MAGDALENA ŚRODA in GW to the Opposition: “Dear Left, Civic Coalition, Greens – where are your compelling political visions? Where are the projects? What are you preparing for us, and what do you want to captivate us with once you have made all the reshuffles in party names and your own leadership? What future? It cannot be the case that only Olga Tokarczuk uses imagination in three senses, because although she does it masterfully, it is not enough for our Poland.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25569643,droga-lewico-koalicjo-obywatelska-zieloni-gdzie-wasze-porywajace.html -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON WHAT THE THREE KINGS PARADES SAY ABOUT POLISH COMMUNITY: “After all, supporters of all parties march in such parades, just as on the evening of August 1st in Warsaw's Piłsudski Square, hundreds of thousands of residents of the capital (and beyond) sing songs from the Uprising. We need to cherish and nurture such movements, initiatives, and events, and at the same time notice that it so happens that all the largest and most lasting, not one-off events, go under the banner associated with patriotism in its traditional version, sometimes creatively modified, but still referring to a vision of the world, state, and community that was slowly supposed to fade away. Such beautiful actions as the Parade tell us a lot about the attitude of the Polish community on the verge of 2020 than many PR professionals and image illusionists would like.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/spoleczenstwo/480911-orszaki-trzech-kroli-mowia-nam-sporo-o-polskiej-wspolnocie -- WPOLITYCE ON THE PROVOCATION BEING PREPARED AGAINST Z. ZIOBRO: “Well, let's watch carefully which newspaper or television station decides to play in the mafia orchestra. After the exposure of fake photos and other fabrications from recent days, there is no doubt that the pursuit of truth will not be behind this.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/480963-idzie-potezny-mafijny-atak-na-prokurature-i-ms-uzyja-mediow -- GRZEGORZ WSZOŁEK REMEMBERS THE MURDERED KRZYSZTOF LESKI: “I will never forgive you, Krzysiek, that illness and, to a large extent, your character ruined such talent, erudition, intelligence, professionalism. You should have been among the top publicists in Poland. To write with passion for people with passion. Instead, you spent the last years literally on welfare. With nothing. But with an open heart.” https://www.salon24.pl/u/wszolek/1010805,nigdy-o-tobie-nie-zapomne-ku-pamieci-krzyska-leskiego -- PAWEŁ MUSIAŁEK ON 8 CONCRETES FOR MORAWIECKI'S SECOND GOVERNMENT: “The reason for stronger criticism of the PiS government is not its exceptional incompetence, but a greater contrast between pompous announcements and their results. Reforms with a low level of organizational complexity have fared well. Success was lacking where change requires systemic action. Politicians do not receive bonuses for above-average reformist ambitions. On the contrary, they most often only generate political costs.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/01/07/drobne-zmiany-moga-poprawic-dobra-zmiane-8-konkretow-dla-drugiego-rzadu-morawieckiego/ -- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA in GW ON THE MYTHS OF THE WELFARE STATE: “For one thing, however, I am grateful to the Left: that it at least does not tell fairy tales – like PiS – that one can introduce a socialist system, focus more on redistribution than on investments and innovation, consume a lot, work little and for a short time, and at the same time become a wealthy superpower that the strongest take into account. You cannot, and whoever claims so is deceiving people.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25573938,nie-wzdychajcie-do-socjalizmu-naprawde-nie-ma-za-czym-tesknic.html -- THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE PRICE SHOCK - RZ editorial on increased inflation: “This, along with the progressing economic slowdown, will prevent the Monetary Policy Council from raising interest rates. In real terms, i.e., after accounting for inflation, they will be deeply below zero in the near future.” https://www.rp.pl/Budzet-i-Podatki/301079897-To-dopiero-poczatek-cenowego-wstrzasu.html -- MAREK BELKA ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF HIGH INFLATION IN POLAND - says in an interview with Mikołaj Kunica in Business Insider: “However, this is not yet a cause for panic. I don't think we are facing the risk of runaway inflation that older Business Insider readers might remember from the PRL era. What is most likely is the permanent establishment of elevated inflation in Poland at a level of 4-5%, and this is already becoming burdensome for the entire economy.” -- THE COMING QUARTERS WILL BE DANGEROUS - BELKA CONTINUES: “Mild stagflation, i.e., a decrease in GDP growth rate with a simultaneous increase in the price index. The coming quarters will therefore be quite unpleasant, effectively for all market participants: businesses, consumers, and in the slightly longer term, also for public finances.” -- BELKA ON WITHDRAWING DEPOSITS: “People will start withdrawing deposits from banks, as with low interest rates and high inflation, they will realistically yield a negative rate of return. As a result, banks will have limited potential to finance investments. In summary, the stagflationary scenario is taking on real shape.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/makroekonomia/wysoka-inflacja-w-polsce-opinia-marka-belki-bylego-prezesa-nbp/jxxn9xp -- BIRTHDAYS: AGNIESZKA POMASKA TURNS 40.

Łukasz Mężyk