state of play: 12/31/2019

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Kidawa-Błońska: It Will Be Easier for Me to Appeal to the Rural Electorate Than for KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ to Appeal to the Urban One; Rogojsz: Nothing Indicates Morawiecki's Stocks Will Fall; GW: Morawiecki Gains; Chwedoruk: Balkanizatio

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MAŁGORZATA KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKA ON THE QUESTION FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH JUDGES APPOINTED BY THE KRS UNDER THE NEW FORMULA: “We need to return to the state ‘before’; there is no other way. However, it is possible that some of these judges will be reappointed by a reformed KRS.” -- KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKA ON THE QUESTION FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH RULINGS ISSUED BY THE NEW JUDGES: “This is a very difficult matter. Many people would not want to start legal proceedings from scratch. Perhaps we should accept that these rulings were issued in accordance with the law, but open the path for willing individuals to re-file their cases? Such issues must be addressed by the legal community. Currently, we are heading towards such chaos that soon no one will know if their case was properly considered or if a verdict can be challenged.” -- KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKA ON THE SOURCES OF ANDRZEJ DUDA'S POPULARITY: “I know, some people adore Andrzej Duda because he supposedly skis well, smiles nicely, and tells jokes, which are questionable, by the way. But there is also a large part of Poles who are not only not satisfied but are frankly terrified and disgusted by the way the most important office in Poland is being held. Duda achieved popularity because he traveled around the country, meeting people. A president who visits a town where such a person has never been before becomes an interesting, closer figure.” -- KIDAWA ON IT BEING EASIER FOR HER TO CONVINCE THE RURAL ELECTORATE THAN FOR KOSINIAK IN THE CITY: “That's true, but it's also getting interesting. I know Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz very well. We worked together for many years in the Sejm and then in the government. I know his convictions and his way of acting. I have always cooperated well with him. It seems to me that he now wants to appeal more to the urban electorate. I believe it will be significantly easier for me to appeal to the rural electorate than for him to appeal to the urban one.” -- KIDAWA ON TAKING HOŁOWNIA SERIOUSLY: “As for Szymon Hołownia, I don't know what his campaign will look like. He is not a politician. But he has decided to run, so he is entering politics. Now he can no longer say he is apolitical. He is entering politics with very little experience, which can be an advantage for him, but also a burden. I take this candidacy very seriously, but today I don't know which direction it will go.” -- KIDAWA ON MACRON'S WORDS ABOUT NATO BEING IN A COMA: “There is no better idea for Poland's and the West's security than a strong NATO. France is an important ally, and we would expect an increase in its real contribution to Euro-Atlantic security. Regarding President Trump's policy, we hear that Europe is not his most important partner. However, tensions between leaders must not overshadow fundamental matters: the USA, Canada, and democratic Europe must cooperate closely because they share the same values.” -- KIDAWA ON PAWŁOWSKI'S QUESTION ABOUT WHAT “PI***S HER OFF”: “Oh, many things! I only think it's a weakness to show that something annoys me, to put it that way. I like to overcome it, to approach it coldly. It seems to me that when I show emotions, I show my weakness. It means someone has unsettled me. And if they have unsettled me, it means they've hit a raw nerve.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/12/31/kidawa-blonska-wywiad-pawlowski-sawczuk-kiedy-okazuje-emocje-pokazuje-moja-slabosc/ -- 300POLITYKA PUBLISHES KIDAWDA'S MESSAGE FIRST – WHICH INDICATES A CERTAIN HARDENING OF THE CANDIDATE'S STANCE: We feel that every corruption has its end. I will undertake the greatest challenge of my life in the coming year. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25554699,14-politykow-i-jeden-prezes-jako-wydarzenie-roku-kto-zyskal.html -- THE POLITICAL SYMBOL OF 2019 WILL BE THE NUMBER “5” – 300POLITYKA PREMIERES THE PRIME MINISTER'S MESSAGE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/12/31/politycznym-symbolem-2019-roku-bedzie-liczba-5-kprm-podsumowuje-mijajacy-rok-internetowym-spotem/ -- LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI ON THE MATTER OF THE SENATE MARSHAL: The opposition leader – against the backdrop of PiS's TKM – should be like Caesar's wife. Media report further cases of corruption at Professor Grodzki's hospital, which unfortunately appear credible. Grodzki should sue these individuals. And the opposition should consider replacing the Senate Marshal. https://twitter.com/lesjazd/status/1211913858597752834?s=21 -- RYSZARD TERLECKI ON THE MEDIA'S RECKONING: We wish that in the New Year, those media that serve fraudsters, lie, and present a false picture of politics, culture, and the economy will be brought to their senses. https://twitter.com/ryszardterlecki/status/1211935189200461825?s=12 -- THE GUARDIAN ON MORAWIECKI'S LETTER: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/30/polish-pm-furious-at-putin-rewriting-history-of-second-world-war -- AP WIRE ON THE LETTER: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/12/29/world/europe/ap-eu-poland-russia.html -- IF POLAND COULD SAY NO TO HITLER, STALIN COULD TOO – JANUSZ ROLICKI IN FAKT: “Russian President Vladimir Putin has been trying for many years to rehabilitate Stalin for his aggression against Poland and his pact with Hitler in September 1939. His diplomats argue that this pact was a necessity. The Soviet Union allegedly had no choice. This is a lie. If Poland could say 'no' to Hitler, Stalin could have done so even more so. If not for his stance, there would have been no war in 1939.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polska/klamstwo-putina-skoro-polska-mogla-hitlerowi-powiedziec-nie-tym-bardziej-mogl-to/xh6jcl5 -- PUTIN IS LOSING THE BATTLE FOR HISTORY – JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI ON JEDYNKA RZ: “The West will not believe that Poland is co-responsible for the outbreak of World War II. The Kremlin's smear campaign is doomed to failure.” https://www.rp.pl/Dyplomacja/191239915-Wladimir-Putin-przegrywa-wojne-o-historie.html -- PUTIN SHAKES HANDS WITH PIS – PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Russia knows that PiS benefits from this. Putin has factored this into his calculations. He counts on the current turmoil having an impact on the 2020 presidential elections. Kaczyński's party will present voters with a clear choice: 'we, PiS – that is Poland,' 'the opposition are traitors.' Nothing pleases the Kremlin more than the rule of Law and Justice in Warsaw. Jarosław Kaczyński's party is destroying the unity of the European Union – and this is Russia's greatest enemy on the continent.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25554867,oskarzenia-kremla-to-prezent-dla-pis-putin-uwzglednil-to-w.html -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON SPEAKING WITH ONE VOICE FROM POLAND: “The government and the opposition should speak with one voice today. Attacks by the opposition on the government and PiS politicians, or by government TVP on the opposition, are the realization of Putin's dreams of a weak and internally divided Poland, which cannot even speak with one voice in the face of Russia.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/191239960-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Rzad-i-opozycja-musza-mowic-o-Rosji-jednym-glosem.html -- RE-ELECTION OF ANDRZEJ DUDA AS THE BEST RESPONSE TO PUTIN – JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Prime Minister Morawiecki responded aptly and calmly to Putin's provocations in his statement. But only Poles can provide a truly strong response. And not now, but in May, during the presidential elections, by once again entrusting the highest office in the state to President Andrzej Duda.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/swiat/479833-najlepsza-odpowiedz-dla-putina-reelekcja-andrzeja-dudy -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON HIS CONVERSATION WITH THE PRESIDENT: “From the conversations I have had in recent days, including a direct conversation with President Andrzej Duda, a clear picture emerges: the Polish authorities perfectly understand what is happening, what the true goals of this operation are. They are acting in full coordination between individual centers. The President, for example, is in contact not only with the Prime Minister and the head of diplomacy but has also contacted Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin.” -- KARNOWSKI ON POLAND DELIBERATELY CHOOSING A LOW LEVEL OF REACTION: “Secondly, the moderate reaction from the Polish side has further fueled Russian propaganda, which in a kind of frenzied whirl falsely attacks even the British, French, and Czechs on historical grounds. And recently, it has even started bickering with the Ambassador of the United States to Poland, Ms. Georgette Mosbacher, who is reminding them of how things really happened.” -- THIS IS JUST RUSSIA'S WARM-UP – KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The current propaganda attack from Putin should be read in this context: it is preparation of the ground for the main propaganda offensive in January. And again: perhaps this will be the moment when the voice of the President of the Republic of Poland will have to speak out loudly on the issue of historical truth. If not in Jerusalem, where according to our information Russia is pushing to silence Poland, then in Auschwitz, where on January 27th, traditional ceremonies related to the liberation of this terrible place will be held. Today, there is no point in exhausting all our strength arguing with Putin, especially on his terms.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/479923-to-tylko-przygrywka-przed-glownym-uderzeniem -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK RECALLS THE SEJM DEBATE WHERE TUSK AND KACZYŃSKI APPLAUDED EACH OTHER – AFTER PUTIN'S WAR WITH UKRAINE: “And yet, even then, the marathon of election campaigns was beginning, and there were no lack of voices on the right that such a declaration – more difficult because it was touched by the memory of 10/04 and how the authorities at the time behaved – was unnecessary, senseless. Nevertheless, Kaczyński decided then that the presumed party benefits could not be more important than the raison d'état of our country and our common security. The mutual applause of the PiS leader for Donald Tusk (and vice versa) did not even invalidate part of their conflict and dispute, but it sent a clear signal – also to our partners abroad – that in matters of utmost importance, party infighting and divisions on the Vistula should not be expected.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/479820-werbalne-ataki-putina-musza-spotkac-sie-z-jednoscia-w-polsce -- BALKANIZATION OF THE OPPOSITION – RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN RZ – in an interview with Jacek Nizinkiewicz: “Structural factors supporting the current president are still at play, such as acceptance of socio-economic reforms, economic upturn, etc. Even if they weaken, the mitigating factor of the opposition's Balkanization will remain, which, interestingly, is stimulated by parts of the opposition itself.” -- CHWEDORUK ON THE RISK OF DEMOBILIZING PAD'S POPULAR ELECTORATE: “There is one problem, and it is called the demobilization of the popular electorate. Voters overrepresented in the PiS electorate are difficult to mobilize, easy to demobilize, and generally distrustful of the world of politics. Examples from Slovakia and Romania show the problem of parties and politicians maintaining power with support in less affluent, less urbanized regions.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/312309942-Rafal-Chwedoruk-PiS-wzmocnil-spoleczna-legitymacje.html -- GW ON MORAWIECKI'S GAINS – as written by Paweł Wroński and Iwona Szpala: “In another government reshuffle, the Prime Minister managed to avoid an attack from Zbigniew Ziobro's United Poland, whose politicians, delighted by the good election results, demanded a change of prime minister – which was a tactic of political bidding. Unable to prevent the increase in the political significance of Mariusz Kamiński, who had already taken the position of head of the Ministry of Interior and Political Supervision, he decided to regulate relations with him. Instead, he got rid of Marek Suski, who served as Kaczyński's eyes and ears in the government. He subjugated European policy by moving Deputy Minister Konrad Szymański from the limping Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Prime Minister's Chancellery. Morawiecki has not shed his tendency to confabulate, but this does not bother the PiS electorate at all.” -- SZPALA AND WROŃSKI ON SCHETYNA: “These events have taken away his supporters within the party and weakened his brand as an effective politician. Moreover, his public image does not improve his standing in PO; the largest opposition party is led by a politician who is at the very bottom of trust rankings, having recently been overtaken by Jarosław Kaczyński. Schetyna's confidants are accused of having had a significant influence on PO's unsuccessful election campaigns.” -- CZARZASTY IS ONE OF THE WINNERS OF 2019 – ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN GAZETA.PL: “The chairman of the SLD ends 2019 in very good spirits. Not only his Alliance but the entire left wing has an enviable end to the year. After four years, they have returned to the Sejm. In the October elections, they achieved a good result, and the latest polls give them almost the same support as the leading opposition party, Civic Platform. In addition, the MPs of The Left are receiving a lot of praise from various quarters for their energy, substantive arguments, fresh ideas, and good public appearances.” -- NOTHING INDICATES THAT MORAWIECKI'S STOCKS ARE ABOUT TO FALL – ROGOJSZ CONTINUES: “He was the face and engine of two major election campaigns – European and parliamentary – which ended in victories for Law and Justice. Moreover, he received a significant credit of trust, thanks to which he still heads the Polish government. His standing, both in the United Right camp and within PiS itself, is high, and there is nothing to suggest that it will begin to fall in the near future.” -- ROGOJSZ IDENTIFIES KOSINIAK AS THE MAIN WINNER OF 2019: “Kosiniak-Kamysz has strengthened his leadership in the Polish People's Party (PSL) and confirmed that he is the sole guarantor of the party's effective transformation from a peasant-rural formation into a modern, European Christian democracy. He is now launching his presidential campaign, aiming to at least reach the second round and compete with Andrzej Duda. Although he trails significantly behind Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, nominated by PO, in the polls, the past twelve months have shown that prematurely writing him off would be a big mistake.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/56,114884,25526179,kosiniak-kamysz-uratowal-psl-od-politycznej-zaglady-biedron.html#s=BoxOpImg2 -- ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KL ON THE FRAGILE FOUNDATIONS OF THE LEFT: “Today, little indicates that this is the case. And the significant trouble the Left is having in choosing its representative in the presidential elections shows how fragile – for now – the foundations of this grouping are. The Left urgently needs a vision for itself before the next elections, especially since in the era of twenty-four-hour media, the charm of novelty fades with each passing day. For now, one thing is certain: the Left does not have a good candidate for head of state.” -- PAWŁOWSKI ON THE PROBLEM WITH ZANDBERG INTERESTINGLY: “Nevertheless, according to some commentators, Zandberg himself was not eager to run. But this is not the only problem. After the merger of SLD and Wiosna, his candidacy is even more questionable. How can activists and supporters of two parties that are just merging into one organism be convinced to dedicate enormous effort and huge sums of money to the campaign of someone who does not want to merge? It is difficult for me to imagine enthusiastic engagement from SLD activists, or even Wiosna, in this situation. And this is even if Zandberg's candidacy gives the Left as a whole a chance for a good result. So, perhaps it would be better to choose someone from the newly formed New Left, i.e., a representative of Wiosna or SLD? If we take this perspective, the candidate seems obvious, and it is…” -- WHAT AFTER THIS, EVEN IF BIEDROŃ SUCCEEDS? – PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES: “Despite everything, we must realistically accept that the Europarliamentarian's chances of advancing to the second round are negligible – most observers of the political scene will probably agree on this. The game is therefore not about winning, but about achieving the best possible result and presenting the Left as a consolidated, serious force. And here, let's optimistically assume that Biedroń will handle this task significantly above expectations and, instead of 12.5 percent – which is the Left's result from the parliamentary elections – will achieve 20 percent support. An excellent result, and Biedroń's supporters will become a coveted prize for either of the two candidates who reach the second round. The position of the Left and Biedroń himself grows. Only… what then? A moment after the campaign ends, our hero returns to Brussels and – by necessity – his star on the national political scene once again dims. So why invest enormous effort and resources in promoting a politician who, even if he succeeds, will not be able to capitalize on his re-ignited popularity? From this perspective, betting on Biedroń is money thrown away.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/12/31/wybory-prezydenckie-lewica-kandydat-kampania/ -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON THE ERASURE OF SMOLENSK: “However, politically, this year clearly showed that PiS decided to quiet down Smolensk. Politicians from the ruling camp no longer speak of explosions on board the Tu-154 plane and Tusk's machinations with Putin, they no longer suggest an assassination attempt. They simply don't talk about Smolensk at all anymore. Smolensk has disappeared from PiS's politics, it does not appear in Jarosław Kaczyński's speeches, it was not part of the election campaign, and it was also cut from PiS's election program.” -- STANKIEWICZ ON THE FALL OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL: “Przyłębska's strength lies solely in her personal connections with the PiS leader. Kaczyński accused the previous head of the Constitutional Tribunal, Andrzej Rzepliński, of ties with Civic Platform, arguing that the president of the Tribunal should stay away from politicians. And today, the same Kaczyński goes to dinners with Przyłębska, considering her his 'social discovery.' He is not bothered even by the fact that Przyłębska – who poses as a right-wing icon today – was a member of the Socialist Union of Polish Students, a communist youth organization active in universities, in the past. The picture of the tribunal's degradation is completed by the latest appointments – controversial PiS politicians Stanisław Piotrowicz and Krystyna Pawłowicz have become judges of the Constitutional Tribunal. The President was so ashamed of this that he kept the ceremony of their swearing-in secret. But he did not decide to stand up to Kaczyński.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/rok-pelen-skandali-najwieksze-polityczne-afery-roku-ranking-andrzeja-stankiewicza/bfntm9b -- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Sakiewicz, Sylwester Ruszkiewicz, SUNDAY, JANUARY 1: Eugeniusz Smolar, Piotr Pyzik, Piotr Pacewicz, Jan Dworak, Mieczysław Struk, Adam Struzik, Genowefa Grabowska, Sławomir Piechota, Michał Danielewski, Mateusz Matyszkowicz, Leszek Korzeniowski.

Łukasz Mężyk