state of play: 11/23/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: The Party is Good, the Government Will Absorb the Odium of Potential Failures; Dudek: PiS Will Not Win Again, It Has Passed Its Peak; Kaczyszczyn: Morawiecki's Normalcy is PiS as a Catch-All Party, a Party for Everyone; Hubner Blunt

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KRZYSZTOF PENDERECKI TURNS 86 TODAY.  https://www.polskieradio.pl/39/156/Artykul/2408546,Krzysztof-Penderecki-86-urodziny-wybitnego-kompozytora -- TODAY AT 7:30 PM IN THE BASILICA ON KAWĘCZYŃSKA, PENDERECKI'S POLISH REQUIEM WILL BE PERFORMED - AS PART OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN MUSIC FESTIVAL EUFONIE:https://nck.pl/projekty-kulturalne/projekty/festiwal-eufonie/aktualnosci/polskie-requiem -- THE PRIME MINISTER ON TALKS WITH TWO WOMEN FOR THE MINISTRY OF SPORT - HE SAID TO KRZYSZTOF ZIEMIEC ON RMF: “Talks are underway with two candidates - very advanced. Once these individuals state their position, and we also make a decision, then we will present it. (...) We are currently in talks with two women. Everything will be clear within two weeks.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER ON THE CBA REPORT ABOUT BANAS - HE MAY CALL BANAS: “Mr. Marian Banaś has contributed significantly to the streamlining of the financial system. I have not read the report prepared by the CBA in detail; I plan to read it this weekend. Once I have formed my opinion on the matter, I will be able to say more. (...) If this report is unfavorable, I may call the chairman,” declared the guest of Krzysztof Ziemiec. https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/news-morawiecki-o-szefie-nik-jezeli-raport-cba-bedzie-niekorzystn,nId,3350545 -- DANUTA HUEBNER BLUNTLY ON THE ENVELOPE FROM JAŚKOWIAK - SHE SAID ON RADIO ZET: “It allows for comments that we want to avoid. I have immense respect for the mayor of Poznań, but I think it's not a very fortunate situation, and that envelope will remain a symbol of a certain lack of transparency. Because I think the problem with us is that we are transparent to a fault, or transparent in various matters, while on the other hand, in fundamental matters, there is a lack of transparency. Sending such an envelope, whether by mail or courier, at the last minute, was not a good way to start these primaries.” https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/Polityka/Danuta-Huebner-o-prawyborach-prezydenckich-w-KO-i-decyzji-Jaskowiaka -- PROF. ADAM ROTFELD: KIDAWAS LIKE CAPUTOVA, SHE CAN WIN - HE SAID TO GRZEGORZ WYSOKI ON GW: “For this reason, in my opinion, the candidate who has a real chance of winning the election is Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. She has political experience and stands out for her cultured interactions with people. Her background is also significant; she has politics in her genes, so to speak. Finally, she is a woman who can play a constructive role in calming or quieting the very turbulent Polish political scene today. Importantly, as polls indicate, she has a very small negative electorate. (...) a young woman with very firm views, who plays an extremely positive role in Slovakia, won the election. I have an inner conviction that the same would be true for Kidawa-Błońska.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25439543,slowackim-sladem-kidawa-blonska-jak-czaputova-nasz-prezydent.html -- PROF. MICHAŁ PAWEŁ MARKOWSKI ON SYMMETRY AS COMMON SENSE - HE SAID TO GRZEGORZ WYSOKI ON GW: “He is a reasonable person. And reasonableness translates into English as 'common sense,' meaning shared sense. This is someone who does not close their eyes to the obvious on either side.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25437318,prof-michal-pawel-markowski-wole-wojne-kulturowa-zamiast.html -- BEATA SZYDŁO LIKE SOLIDARNA POLSKA ON BIEJAT: “The former prime minister recalled that she was not elected chairwoman of the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs in the European Parliament due to her views. - In Poland, where the Law and Justice party governs with the votes of Poles, the family committee can be headed by the Left. And in the European Parliament – there is no place for a conservative politician. That's what tolerance looks like, she stated.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/beata-szydlo-jak-partia-ziobry-krytykuje-pis-za-oddanie-lewicy-komisji-ds-rodziny/lwns7yt -- THE PRIME MINISTER CONFIRMED LEADERSHIP AT A DIFFICULT TIME FOR PIS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN PTT: “The Prime Minister confirmed his leadership in the government at a time inconvenient for the entire PiS. When troubles begin to mount, they will fall primarily on him. And they may hinder his efforts to secure the position of the leader of the right. If he dreams of succession to Kaczyński in the role of PiS leader in the future, the position of a hired 'troubleshooter' will certainly not make such a game easier for him. He may not be easily gotten rid of, but he can be condemned to the role of an eternal second.” -- THE PARTY IS GOOD, THE GOVERNMENT WILL ABSORB THE ODIUM OF FAILURES, ALTHOUGH PIS VOTERS ACCEPTED MORAWIECKI AND STOPPED LOOKING FOR SZYDŁO - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Naturally, the threat to the position of the old-new prime minister is not great. Morawiecki, after getting through successive campaigns, seems irreplaceable, primarily because only he knows how to count everything and put together the state's finances. Only he knows the techniques of talking with foreign leaders. But in this way, a division is built, clear to the party apparatus. The party is good, the government will absorb the odium of potential failures. Although it must be admitted that the last campaign, in particular, reconciled the prime minister with PiS voters. They stopped looking for the nurturing Beata Szydło for good. The former stern manager, increasingly skillfully talking to voters, was finally accepted as the herald of the 'good change.' For this reason too, Zbigniew Ziobro's action to replace him with someone else was doomed to failure.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER CONDUCTS INTRICATE GAMES BUT HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE ON POLITICAL STRATEGY - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “The Prime Minister may conduct his intricate games with foreign countries. He may introduce elements into the government's agenda that facilitate the search for new voters, for example, through the ecological package. But he has little influence on the overall political strategy, which is symbolized by PiS's continued support for Krystyna Pawłowicz and Stanisław Piotrowicz as candidates for the Constitutional Tribunal. Against this backdrop, appeals to the opposition to reach an agreement sounded somewhat grotesque. Joanna Lichocka's invaluable formula fit better: 'The howling is heard, excellent.' ” -- ZAREMBA ON PIS BIGWIGS IN THE GOVERNMENT: “But the direction of these changes is not unequivocal. Some ministers not highly rated by Morawiecki have not left at all, for example, the head of the infrastructure ministry, Andrzej Adamczyk. These are remnants of the old principle of respecting the positions of PiS bigwigs. Oversight of state-owned companies has been centralized. But Jacek Sasin will control them more in the name of Nowogrodzka than the prime minister. It is possible that this will favor a more rational, coordinated economic policy, but it will hardly strengthen Morawiecki's position. Besides, he didn't have full power here before either. He had to tolerate Ziobro's man at the head of PZU, even though formally this company remained directly under his control.” -- THAT IS THE NATURE OF THIS CAMP, YOU HAVE TO RUN TO NOWOGRODZKA - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “Strengthening the coalition partners also solidifies the position of Ziobro, who dislikes the prime minister, even if Kaczyński himself doesn't like him, he cannot get rid of him. Despite recurring rumors that a new position is being sought for Jacek Kurski, he retains control over public television. And during the campaign, he made sure the prime minister appeared on screen as little as possible. Is Kaczyński ensuring a balance of power this way, or does he no longer control everything? In any case, the prime minister has not even become a dauphin. And with every more serious matter, he will continue to run to Nowogrodzka. Because that is the nature of this camp.” https://polskatimes.pl/morawiecki-silniejszy-premier-ale-tez-pan-od-klopotow/ar/c1-14599675 -- EXPOSÉ OF CONTINUATION - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN PTT in conversation with Agaton Koziński: “The exposé confirmed the political line that PiS intends to pursue in the next four years. Mateusz Morawiecki indicated the main directions, and frankly, nothing in them surprised us. He said nothing révolutionarily new; rather, he repeated what we have heard in the last four years. It was a classic exposé of continuation. How long this continuation will last is a separate matter.” -- PROF. DUDEK ON THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE CJEU RULING: “If Andrzej Duda loses in them, PiS will no longer be able to continue its policy. Then his camp will begin to crumble – and Tuesday's CJEU ruling will turn out to be one of the elements that led to this crumbling. Therefore, it is difficult for me to say today whether the exposé or the Court's decision is more important.” -- KACZYŃSKI'S SUCCESSOR WILL NOT BE NEEDED SOON - DUDEK CONTINUES: “First and foremost, this successor will not be needed anytime soon. On Tuesday, in a kind of annex to the exposé presented by the PiS leader, it was evident that Kaczyński is in full strength and is not going anywhere. He will likely maintain full power in PiS throughout this term and continue to pull the most important strings. But PiS will most likely not have another term.” -- PIS HAS ALREADY PASSED ITS PEAK - DUDEK CONTINUES IN PTT: “I propose the thesis that PiS reached the peak of its influence in society between May and October of this year. Since the last elections, it is evident that this party has faltered. Perhaps it is not yet large enough for Andrzej Duda not to manage to win the presidential election – especially since the competition is too weak to remove him from office. His victory will allow PiS to last until the end of this term. But with each year without elections, he will become weaker and weaker, and this will become increasingly apparent.” -- PIS WILL NOT WIN THE NEXT ELECTIONS - DUDEK'S CONCLUSION: “But it is evident that he is tired, and meanwhile, an economic slowdown looms on the horizon. Even the party leader has started talking about it. And if so, one must expect that this race will take place in even more difficult conditions. This is the situation of PiS: it has to run as fast as before, but it is already tired, and the conditions for running are increasingly difficult. That is why I put forward the thesis that PiS will not be able to win the next elections. Especially since the opposition is regrouping. In four years, PiS will have someone to lose to.” https://plus.polskatimes.pl/antoni-dudek-kolejnych-wyborow-pis-juz-nie-wygra/ -- WARM WATER IN THE TAP PLUS - PIOTR KACZYSZCZYN ON THE KLUBU JAGIELLOŃSKIEGO PORTAL: “'Poles want a normal government in a normal country where people live normal lives.' Contrary to appearances, this is not a sentence taken from Mateusz Morawiecki's speech, who today misused the word 'normalcy' to an unbearable degree. This is a fragment from Donald Tusk's exposé from 2007. United Right is beginning to seek its own version of the 'warm water in the tap' policy. The vision of a Polish welfare state is to fulfill this function.” -- PLUS MEANS A CLEAR IDENTITY AGENDA - KACZYSZCZYN CONTINUES: “Instead, we witnessed – probably unintentionally – PiS's search for its version of the 'warm water in the tap' policy, plus. Where 'plus' will mean a clear identity agenda (defense of the traditional family) and a strong emphasis on history (recalling the biography of a recently deceased Warsaw Uprising participant who escorted Marshal's heart to Vilnius before the war). The future will tell if Jarosław Kaczyński has deciphered the souls of Poles more accurately than Donald Tusk.” -- MORAWIECKI HAS PLACED PIS IN A NEW CENTER, PIS AS A PARTY FOR EVERYONE - KACZYSZCZYN CONTINUES: “Neither worldview revolutions (the Left) nor chauvinism (Konfederacja). Neither West nor East – Poland is the civilizational center of Europe. The Prime Minister, indirectly but quite clearly, has placed the United Right in the expanded political horizon of the new term. According to Morawiecki, the 'good change' camp is the new center, a grouping that, as he stated, follows the 'spirit of Poland' not the 'spirit of the times,' operating outside extremes, defining what is 'normal' (this word appeared in the exposé dozens of times). Thus, in place of the recent binary division of PiS-PO, a new political puzzle is beginning to emerge, in which, not by chance, there is no place for either Civic Platform or 'urban Christian democracy' from the Polish People's Party. There is no such place because in the center, outside the extremes, where alleged 'normalcy' resides, only Law and Justice can comfortably settle in – the new political hegemon, the Polish variant of a catch-all party, a party for everyone.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/11/19/ciepla-woda-w-kranie-plus-expose-mateusza-morawieckiego/ -- TUSK ADMITTED HE ONLY WON THANKS TO MEDIA MONOPOLY - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “This confession by the former Polish prime minister deserves attention for another reason. It is an indirect admission that he won for so long only thanks to a media monopoly. In conditions of real pluralism, a strong clash with equal forces, his power has radically weakened. Because there was no campaign to destroy his image; Poles simply learned a few things. For example, how he neglected state affairs.” -- TVP DOES NOT DOMINATE THE MARKET ANYWAY, BUT DISINFORMATION IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE: “It also confirms what I have repeatedly pointed out in these pages: these attacks on TVP are not about whether it is this way or that, with better or worse taste, but about the fact that it exists at all – independent, not subordinate to the Third Polish Republic camp. This autonomy makes a difference, giving Poles the opportunity to choose. Because TVP does not rule the market; media friendly to Tusk dominate (in my assessment, 80-90 percent reach). However, TVP is an element that loosens the system enough that certain disinformation operations are no longer possible. Donald Tusk unequivocally confirmed this diagnosis.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/474169-tusk-przyznal-ze-wygrywal-dzieki-monopolowi-medialnemu -- JACEK GĄDEK EXCELLENTLY RECONSTRUCTS THE EVENTS PRECEDING THE UNFORTUNATE VOTE: “Joanna Borowiak goes to Jarosław Kaczyński to explain that she spoiled the vote. Jarosław Kaczyński and Barbara Bartuś push her to go to the Speaker to report that there is supposedly a problem with casting votes, although they already know very well that they made mistakes themselves and blocked their ability to vote for all (and not just one) PiS candidates for the National Council of the Judiciary.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25436740,lipinski-mowil-elu-bedzie-kilka-glosow-za-malo-czy-j-kaczynski.html -- MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI ON THE LEFT BREAKING THROUGH THE 90S MENTALITY WALL: “The condition for the Left's support for PiS's proposals could achieve three goals at once: open a debate about solidarity in the pension system, cause problems for Kaczyński, and show that there is a third force in the Sejm capable of making policy on its own terms. Of course, if it breaks through the mentality wall of the late 90s with its narrative.” -- SUTOWSKI ON GOWIN'S STANCE ON ZUS - AN IDENTITY ISSUE: “On the other hand, PiS will have a problem. Because to push through the law abolishing the thirtyfold limit, they need Jarosław Gowin's MPs. This is not some constitution, KRS, or Supreme Court that can be voted on and not be happy about. If the Deputy Prime Minister gives in on an identity issue for his faction – defending the interests of business and the aspirations of the middle class – and votes in favor, he will be a political corpse. Especially if all of this turns out to be a setup so that President Duda can ride in on a white horse and save the household budgets of the leading class of Polish capitalism with a veto. And if, in turn, Gowin does not give in and the law falls (because the Left will not support it without a solidarity correction), then we will have quite a ferment in the ruling camp.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/michal-sutowski-pis-lewica-skladki-emerytalne/ -- 12 YEARS AGO Donald Tusk delivered the longest exposé in the history of the Third Polish Republic in the Sejm. -- BIRTHDAYS: Lena Dąbkowska-Cichocka, SUNDAY: Karol Szyndzielorz, Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk, Mikołaj Chrzan.

Łukasz Mężyk