state of play: 11/22/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Gowin with Veto Power? "Fighting Appetites" from Allies, the "Steamroller of Chauvinism" Crushing Kidawa, Kaczyński as PM Again? Lenkowski on the "Illusion of Zandbergism"

Łukasz Mężyk

-- ZBIGNIEW JUJKA'S LAST CARTOON IN DZB. -- TERLECKI ADMITS VOTING WAS AWKWARD, ZGORZELSKI THINKS TUSK WILL RUN ANYWAY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/11/22/ -- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON GOWIN GAINING VETO POWER - writes in DGP: “Gowin insisted. He referred to the resolution of the Agreement's board and the mood of his 18 MPs. PiS politicians noted the statement of one of these MPs, Kamil Bortniczuk. If the government expects to push through this bill with a majority other than that of the United Right (using support from, for example, the Razem MPs), then the Agreement could also join ad hoc majorities in the future. Together with most of the opposition, he suggested. Were there such ideas on the government side? – Perhaps among the inexperienced collaborators of the prime minister. Kaczyński is too seasoned a leader to agree to destabilize the coalition mechanism – replies an important PiS politician. Nevertheless, the Agreement has thereby gained something akin to veto power. It cannot naturally abuse it. But something has happened.” -- ZAREMBA ON THE INTERNET'S AMAZEMENT AFTER ZANDBERG'S SPEECH: “It is possible that if Zandberg seriously considered acting on his beliefs for a moment, rather than political theatre, he blessed the moment he was freed from this dilemma. During the debate on the prime minister's exposé, he suddenly became the main star. His skillful speech, holding the Morawiecki government accountable for what it prided itself on most – its pro-social correction – turned out to be impactful. It met with the admiration of commentators and many voters – reflections can be found online.” -- ZAREMBA ON THE PROBLEM OF LEFTIST RADICALISM IN ATTRACTING NEW VOTERS: “Can it take the place of the main opposition party? Many Poles on that side have shown, for example, by leaving PO for PSL in the last election, that they are not ideological radicals. And the Left's program is radical in its worldview in pushing Western novelties. Will those who are worse off socially react with enthusiasm when inspired ideologues from Razem tell them to accept immigrants from the Middle East? Or to be lenient towards the hard core of the European Union? These are the weaknesses of the Left in its efforts to break through the magic ten percent mark. But perhaps its inflexibility on social issues will also make its other views more digestible? That remains to be seen.” https://forsal.pl/artykuly/1440727,zaremba-opinia-porozumienie-zyskalo-prawo-weta.html -- GOOD CHANGE WITH STUMBLES - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “And the allies of Kaczyński's party know that this is their time. They calculate like this: we have more MPs than in the previous term – 18 each – and PiS cannot form a majority without us. And PiS is losing the reserve from the previous term, when it could take votes from the Kukiz'15 club, and even from PSL, like acquiring Andżelika Możdżanowska from the Peasants. They say that the tone of the talks is also completely different than five years ago. – We are no longer asking PiS to do something for us, now we are asking how we can help you – says our interlocutor. The talks are also descending to lower and lower levels – from ministers through deputy ministers to voivodes and their own candidates for other institutions, such as the Constitutional Tribunal. The moods among Kaczyński's allies have also changed. – They are more combative, you can feel this desire to stand out, to assert their position, it's completely different – says a politician from the Agreement.” -- KONDZIŃSKA IN GW ON THE DIVISION OF COMPANIES: “But as we learn, the Agreement will increase its assets. The party is to have influence over the appointment of personnel at PFR Nieruchomości (PFR Real Estate). This is a company subordinate to the Polish Development Fund, which is headed by Paweł Borys, a trusted associate of the prime minister. – The Agreement is getting PFR Nieruchomości because Minister of Development Jadwiga Emilewicz is responsible in this government for the 'Apartment Plus' project, which didn't go very well for us. I've already heard that a purge is being prepared at the company – says a politician from Nowogrodzka. Will the Ziobro camp get a company? – What, don't they have enough? – they respond in PiS.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25435528,dobra-zmiana-z-wybojami.html -- MONIKA OLEJNIK ON GOWIN'S WORDS ABOUT SOMETHING CRUMBLING IN THE UNITED RIGHT - writes in GW: “And how do the prime minister's speeches relate to the words of Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin, who said in an interview for 'Sieci': 'I will lie down like Rejtan if anyone tries to limit freedom of speech for supporters of gender ideology in universities'? As can be seen, something is crumbling in the United Right.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25434871,piekne-slowka-premiera-morawieckiego.html -- KACZYŃSKI TO HEAD THE GOVERNMENT? - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Minority shareholders in the United Right hold the controlling stake: Ziobro and Gowin. It is not out of the question that after the presidential elections, Jarosław Kaczyński will have to head the government. (...) Now the situation may repeat itself. We have even seen the first swallows: immediately after the elections, Patryk Jaki (meaning, likely, Zbigniew Ziobro) postulated that Jarosław Kaczyński should take over as prime minister. It is not out of the question that this postulate, but now effectively, will be repeated after the presidential elections. And Mateusz Morawiecki will be the first victim, a politician increasingly less credible to the social and right-wing electorate, who lacks political backing and is treated as a hired manager to run the country and weave beautiful tales.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25434972,kaczynski-bedzie-musial-stanac-na-czele-rzadu.html -- INFIGHTING IN PLATFORMA - IWONA SZPALA IN GW ON JAŚKOWIAK SAVING SCHETYNA: “The Mayor of Poznań, Jacek Jaśkowiak, saved the primaries in PO and perhaps the party leader, Grzegorz Schetyna. (...) And he adds: – Schetyna knew, because he is his candidate. They have an ironclad relationship, they get along. Jaśkowiak's ex-wife received the first spot from Poznań, and it was the chairman's decision. Another Platform politician recalls that after the parliamentary elections were lost, Jaśkowiak publicly distanced himself from the leader's critics.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25435532,przepychanki-w-platformie.html -- NATALIA WALOCH IN GW ON THE CHAUVINISM KIDAW-BŁOŃSKA FACED: “As long as Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska served as a shield hiding the disliked Schetyna, she had widespread approval. When she entered the harsh political game, she started taking flak. For many, the vision of a woman becoming president, someone to whom generals would have to salute, is unacceptable. (...) There are many studies proving that what is considered decisiveness, ambition, natural leadership qualities in men is interpreted in women as ruthlessness, arrogance, and insensitivity.” -- KIDAWA SAVED KO FROM CATASTROPHE - WALOCH CONTINUES IN GW: “It would not be a great exaggeration to say that Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska probably saved the Coalition from disaster, and even significantly helped it to become a finally significant part of the opposition.” -- WALOCH ON THE STEAMROLLER OF CHAUVINISM: “Women are written off as too soft and easily offended, sent to flower shops, but milder politicians are not told to go work with kittens in an animal shelter. And so on. Kidawa-Błońska may not be someone's ideal candidate, but no woman deserves to be run over by a steamroller of chauvinism, prejudice, and – let's call it, following Cordelia Fine – gender delusions.” https://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,100865,25435375,imitacja-sophii-loren-pani-z-kwiaciarni-damulka-urojenia.html -- IF PIS DOESN'T CHANGE ITS POLITICAL STYLE, IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR NORMALITY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “PiS will have to completely change its current way of conducting politics. After the elections, there were leaks that Jarosław Kaczyński had decided on a path to the center, that he wanted to rebuild the party in the mold of a more moderate Christian democracy – in the style of the CDU. These concepts, especially in the form of a nod to previous governments, a more conciliatory language, or the overuse of the word 'normality,' were reflected in the prime minister's exposé on Tuesday. (...) PO lost in 2015 because it failed to notice how it had changed Polish society during its eight years in power. If PiS wants to avoid this mistake, it must understand its electorate, but also gain a new one – with new topics, new policies. (...) If it does not quickly reformulate its current way of governing, but also of conducting politics and managing social emotions, new opposition forces in the Sejm may quite quickly strain the still stable, at around 40 percent, support for the ruling party. And then it will be too late for 'normality,' a course to the center, or seeking a new electorate.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/311219876-Szuldrzynski-PiS-musi-zmienic-sposob-uprawiania-polityki.html -- PAD SHOULD AVOID SWEARING IN PAWŁOWICZ AND PIOTROWICZ - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “From a legal point of view, the head of state has his hands tied and must accept the oath from the new judges of the Constitutional Tribunal. However, the president has been in a similar situation before and did not accept the oath from three judges of the Constitutional Tribunal correctly elected by the 7th term Sejm. The president is facing a tragic conflict of valid arguments. However, there are situations of higher necessity, and the guardian of the constitution should not agree to the corruption of law and customs. Duda should avoid accepting the nominations from Pawłowicz and Piotrowicz. A wrong decision will haunt the president, and the Tribunal will be his conscience.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/311219878-Nizinkiewicz-Wybor-Pawlowicz-i-Piotrowicza-zaszkodzi-Andrzejowi-Dudzie.html -- ZANDBERGISM WILL NOT SAVE US - BŁAŻEJ LENKOWSKI, ONE OF THE ORGANIZERS OF THE FREEDOM GAMES AT LIBERTE: “Adrian Zandberg delivered an excellent rhetorical and well-prepared substantive counter-exposé in response to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. A wave of admiration for the far-left politician is sweeping through the liberal-left media, and politicians from the Razem party are experiencing a huge wave of media interest. However, based on these feelings, one cannot abstract from the fundamental ideas that constitute the Razem environment, and regarding their ideas for organizing economic life, they are identical to PiS's erroneous diagnosis. What distinguishes them is that they are, at least rhetorically, even more radical. (...) The dominance of the Razem party's ideas throughout the Left does not bode well for Poland's future. Zandbergism will not save the opposition or Poland; on the contrary. It is worth not succumbing to collective illusions.” -- LENKOWSKI CLARIFIES ZANDBERG'S WORDS ON CORPORATIONS: “Corporations in Poland are not just simple assembly plants – although they are needed! Large corporations provide hundreds of thousands of jobs in Poland, and very often these are significantly better-paid jobs than in the still financially struggling micro, small, and medium-sized Polish enterprises sector. It is Western corporations that are introducing a range of civilizing labor standards to Poland, building broad pro-social programs, and fostering attitudes also desired by the left. It is Western corporations that have injected extraordinary investment funds over the last 30 years, thanks in part to which the Polish economy has been flourishing for several years. Western corporations in Poland represent technology and know-how, which we could only dream of a dozen or so years ago. It is also a great exaggeration to paint a picture of Western companies as a uniform pathology that, with the tacit consent of the political class so far, does not pay taxes in Poland. That is simply not true. The vast majority pay these taxes. There are a few giant companies in the new technology sector that, due to the specific nature of their activities, often also in a strictly geographical sense, do not pay taxes in Poland. This is a global problem, which is unlikely to be solved by anyone at the national state level, so I congratulate Zandberg on his good mood and sense of agency. At the same time, the overall balance of operations of many of these technology corporations in the Polish market is positive, and many of the unique products or information resources they provide are of great value to citizens.” -- LENKOWSKI POLEMIZES WITH ZANDBERG ON THE USA: “The economic, political, and military involvement of the United States in Poland should be a constant consensus among political forces. Especially since, contrary to the sympathies of one political side or another in Poland, or Trump's pleasant platitudes about heroic Poland, the USA, since the time of Barack Obama, and even more so under Trump, is moving towards isolationist positions and is increasingly less interested in our region of the world. We must, within our available means, consider how to counteract this phenomenon, instead of focusing on attacks on Polish-American military cooperation or the presence of American corporations in our country. However, one should expect a politician with such aspirations to know the basics of geopolitical games in our region.” https://liberte.pl/zandbergizm-nas-nie-zbawi/ -- KIDAWA HAS A CHANCE TO WIN OVER CONSERVATIVE VOTERS - OKO.PRESS ANALYSIS: “The moderately conservative ideological profile of the KO candidate clearly appeals to a significant portion of rural voters and may greatly facilitate the transfer of support from supporters of PSL leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz in the second round. The argument against is Kidawa's weak showing among the youngest voters: her result is eight percentage points worse than KO's result in the same group in the parliamentary elections.” https://oko.press/wnuczka-kontra-bokser-kidawa-blonska-i-jaskowiak-o-nominacje-platformy/ -- BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA SUGGESTS TUSK'S SUPPORT MAY HARM THE OPPOSITION - as written in RZ: “Yes, such an impudent mirror would be very useful. Perhaps then the head of the EPP would be more cautious in declaring his support for the opposition candidate. Because, as he himself says, he doesn't want to harm him. So, wouldn't he be harming him? And he has plenty of work to do, not least unraveling the Gordian knot with Orbán at its center. Or presenting a new strategy for confronting populism. In Europe, they believe that Tusk will renew the face of Christian democracy. I don't know, I sincerely wish him that. But even more so, that he supports the opposition candidate in Poland with great caution. A mirror could be very helpful in this.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/311219869-Chrabota-Magiczne-lustro--dla-Donalda.html -- WILL THE OPPOSITION REALLY PROPOSE A DIFFERENT STYLE IN THE SENATE? I HAVE DOUBTS - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN VIDEO KLUBU JAGIELLOŃSKIEGO: “The opposition has a majority in the Senate. Over the past few months, we have repeatedly heard about what a great change this would be and what a great breakthrough. Will the opposition really present a different way of conducting politics in the Senate than what we have become accustomed to? I have considerable doubts about that.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/11/21/trudnowski-5-pomyslow-na-lepszy-senat-video/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Małgorzata Gersdorf, Waldemar Kuczyński, Anna Maria Anders, Norbert Obrycki, Michał Fal, Filip Kaczmarek, Tomasz Gruszecki.

Łukasz Mężyk