state of play: 11/20/2019

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Zandberg in a Different League than Budka and Schetyna, "Normalność Plus" in DGP, Karnowski: Course Correction Towards Modern Conservatism, Fijołek: PiS Wants to Be Present in Important Future Issues

Łukasz Mężyk

-- HEIKO MASS IN RZ ON GERMANY'S POTENTIAL SOLIDARITY IN THE FACE OF THREATS TO POLAND: "Our Polish neighbors can count on us treating their security needs as seriously as our own." -- AMERICA REMAINS EUROPE'S MOST IMPORTANT ALLY - MASS IN CONVERSATION WITH JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI: "We Europeans will have to take more responsibility for our security in the future. Therefore, we have established the European Union's Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in security and defense policy, and we desire closer cooperation in developing the capabilities of the European intervention initiative and strengthening civilian crisis management. We know that we Europeans must invest in our security. Germany is contributing to this. Since 2014, we have increased our defense spending by 45 percent according to NATO criteria. But it is also clear that America remains Europe's most important ally. For European security, we need U.S. engagement both now and in the future." -- WE WILL NOT ACCEPT THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA - FURTHER FROM THE GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN RZ: "We have repeatedly emphasized our critical stance towards many areas of Russia's policy. The European Union, for example, has taken a consistent stance on the annexation of Crimea and continues to unanimously uphold the sanctions imposed on Russia to this day. We maintain this position because we will not accept this annexation, which violates international law. Nevertheless, it is also clear that we are leaving the door open for dialogue with Moscow. This is the common position of the EU and NATO." https://www.rp.pl/Dyplomacja/191119374-Heiko-Maas-niemiecki-minister-spraw-zagranicznych-USA-to-nasz-najwazniejszy-sojusznik.html -- MUCHA ON SCHETYNA HITTING A WALL, PISZCZEK AT MORAWIECKI'S BREAKFAST - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/11/20/ -- NORMALNOŚĆ PLUS - DGP's Front Page. As written by Grzegorz Osiecki and Tomasz Żółciak: "It was a speech titled 'Normalność Plus.' The word 'normalność' itself was used 38 times yesterday. Prime Minister Morawiecki emphasized those aspects that were popular during the campaign and were deemed effective in gaining support. Above all, the concept of a 'Polish welfare state.' It is meant to be associated with a lack of concern for material future." https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/613275,expose-sejm-premier-morawiecki-zus-skladki-ustawa.html -- STRIKING CONTRAST BETWEEN SCHETYNA AND ZANDBERG - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI AND TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "What was most striking in Tuesday's parliamentary debate was not the prime minister's exposé by Mateusz Morawiecki at all. Nor was it the speech by Jarosław Kaczyński or the leader of the largest opposition party. It was the contrast between the speeches of Grzegorz Schetyna and Adrian Zandberg." -- THE ALLEGEDLY LAZY LEFT PUT IN MUCH MORE WORK THAT DAY THAN THE PARTY OF ENTERPRISING PEOPLE - FURTHER FROM THE AUTHORS OF KULTURA LIBERALNA: "It's not about opinions – one can disagree with Zandberg's left-wing proposals. But unlike Schetyna, Zandberg had prepared his response – he pointed out the government's weaknesses on specific issues, made concrete accusations, and announced proposed legislation. The supposedly lazy Left put in much more work that day than the members of the party of enterprising people." -- SCHETYNA CAME ACROSS AS IF HE HAD ONLY LEARNED HE COULD SPEAK AN HOUR BEFORE THE SESSION - FURTHER FROM SAWCZUK AND PAWŁOWSKI: "After the attack on Morawiecki, the question arose again – has a leader of an opposition party prepared to take power stood up to the government of PiS? This speech certainly did not bring him closer to building the image of a responsible, credible party, which the strongest opposition grouping should be by definition. Unfortunately, the chairman once again came across as if he had only learned he could speak an hour before the Sejm session." -- ZANDBERG FROM A DIFFERENT POLITICAL LEAGUE THAN SCHETYNA AND BUDKA - CONCLUSION BY THE AUTHORS OF KULTURA LIBERALNA: "Against the backdrop of the weak impression made by Schetyna and Budka, Adrian Zandberg's speech seemed to be from a different political league. And not because the Lewica MP gave a display of exceptional political virtuosity. No, he simply prepared. (...) Firstly, it was not the speech of a representative of the 'total opposition.' Zandberg repeatedly admitted that he liked some of Morawiecki's announcements, that he agreed with them, and that when Morawiecki first made them a few years ago, he had certain hopes tied to them. But at the same time, and secondly, he showed the areas where Morawiecki's government had suffered its greatest failures." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/11/19/schetyna-zandberg-morawiecki-expose-debata/ -- POLITICAL FATALISM IS ENDING, AND WITH IT THE PEACE OF MIND OF INTELLECTUALLY LAZY POLITICIANS OF THE OLD ORDER - MARCIN MAKOWSKI IN WP: "Political fatalism is ending before our eyes. The condemnation of Polish society for almost two decades to the PO-PiS duopoly war is ending. In a sense, this may be a yet-unrecognized earthquake. Nothing in our parliamentarism will be the same again. The barrenness of disputes without the Left and the far-Right in the Sejm is becoming a thing of the past. And with it, the peace of mind of increasingly intellectually lazy politicians of the old order." -- PLATFORMA NO LONGER HAS THE INTELLECTUAL RESOURCES TO CAPTIVATE ANYONE BEYOND ITS CORE ELECTORATE - FURTHER FROM MAKOWSKI: "Let's compare their statements with the tedious and predictable rant of Borys Budka. Platforma no longer has the intellectual resources to captivate and inspire anyone beyond its core electorate. And this is the biggest positive today, resulting from the emerging new balance of power in the Polish Sejm. PiS will have to try twice as hard, the opposition will have to become more substantive. And all those who rest on their laurels of personal rivalries will simply fade into obscurity over time. Because they will be compared to those politicians who are willing to do more than just spin their wheels." https://opinie.wp.pl/makowski-to-nie-bedzie-sejm-zgody-i-normalnosci-to-bedzie-sejm-zrywajacy-z-duopolem-po-pis-6447861118445697a -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON PLAYING MULTIPLE PIANOS: "The diversity of signals sent was the greatest strength of this speech: it is clearly visible that Morawiecki – and following him, the entire camp of Jarosław Kaczyński – intends to play on multiple pianos, emphasizing different issues depending on current needs and societal expectations." -- SHORTENING THE ARENAS OF DISPUTE - FURTHER FROM FIJOŁEK: "At the same time, we clearly noted a shortening of the potential areas of dispute in the exposé. Certainly, one of the reasons for such a mild tone was the approaching presidential campaign, but this is likely a broader process. The times are over – at least, this is how I understand Morawiecki's and PiS leadership's assessment of reality – when the fight against the 'system,' Platforma, or the pathologies of the Third Republic could be the main driving force. The recurring message 'For the last eight years...' will no longer work; this fuel is simply running out." -- PIS WANTS TO BE PRESENT IN ISSUES THAT WILL SOON BE IMPORTANT - FIJOŁEK's CONCLUSION: "Morawiecki and PiS are today pointing to areas previously reserved for left-wing circles, or urban movements and social activists. Since, whether one likes it or not, a revolution (also, and perhaps mainly) of mentality regarding ecology is taking place, PiS politicians want to be at its forefront. Since the time of other priorities is approaching, PiS wants to be there before they become fashionable. Since certain matters have been closed (or are being closed) on the right side, it is time to move to other areas. Hence the outstretched hand to the opposition in many different areas: from energy transformation, through money in PPK, to investment relief for entrepreneurs. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/473627-po-expose-premier-morawiecki-gra-na-wielu-fortepianach -- EXPOSÉ FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN - Michał Szułdrzyński and Andrzej Stec on RZ's front page: "This peculiar 'third way' of Morawiecki is understandable, given that in a few months PiS will be fighting for Andrzej Duda's re-election. The president will be whoever presents an offer not only to one group but gains the support of over half the voters – this cannot be achieved without votes from the center, and even the left." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze-ekonomiczne/311199898-Expose-na-czas-kampanii-prezydenckiej.html -- NOT TO BE PUSHED INTO A MELTING GHETTO, THE PRIME MINISTER'S RESPONSE IS PROMISING - JACEK KARNOWSKI: "This was an attempt to solve the most serious dilemma of the ruling camp: how to maintain the support of the conservative part of society, for whom values are most important, while not allowing themselves to be pushed into a melting ghetto that can only wait for global processes – such as secularization or increased social mobility, the weakening of traditional institutions – to take away their power. The answer the prime minister provided sounds very promising." -- THE CENTER OF THE POLISH ROAD, BUT CLOSER TO THE RIGHT EDGE - FURTHER FROM KARNOWSKI: "But there is one condition: the entire exposé must be implemented with equal passion, not just parts or fragments of it. This line – this center of the Polish road, but closer to the right, modernization but also protection of identity and tradition, development but also justice. If any of these legs are neglected, if the always difficult political daily life and powerful pressures cause any of these goals to be abandoned, the entire structure will falter. If the whole is realized, the government can think about fighting for another term. This is not an unattainable goal." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/473600-rzad-wygra-kolejna-kadencje-jesli-zrealizuje-calosc-expose -- PIS, LIKE MERKEL, RUMMAGED IN THE ATTICS OF OTHER PARTIES - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "One can also observe that the ruling camp has decided to rummage a bit through the programs of other parties. Just as Chancellor Angela Merkel did for years in Germany, which her biographers pointed to as a key reason for the longevity of her rule. Now, the prime minister has also expanded the repertoire of PiS slogans to include those that were previously (often unfairly, like environmental protection) reserved for the opposition. This is somewhat natural: as people get richer, as basic needs are met, as the biggest gaps are filled, there arises a call for more: better quality of life, air, environmental protection, communication, healthcare, education. In each of these areas, the prime minister has put forward a strong offer. For opposition voters, if they deign to consider it for even a second (and if the media they consume allow them to), it is an attractive offer. Strengthened by the credibility of this team, which, with minor exceptions, delivers promised goals. However, the fundamental difference with the opposition remains: for unknown reasons, it wants to do this against the state, not with it." -- A MOMENT OF SIGNIFICANT COURSE CORRECTION TOWARDS MODERN CONSERVATISM - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI's CONCLUSION: "Can this succeed? Yes, under three conditions. Firstly, its implementation is possible by maintaining the dynamism that resonated in the prime minister's speech. Secondly, the program correction must be a correction, not a neophyte's fawning to the Left (earlier praises of the insane Greta Thunberg by the climate minister crossed this line). Thirdly, a bit of luck will be necessary, because the intention is very, very ambitious – and the external media world is consistent in its hostility. Overall, however, it was a very politically significant day, marking a moment of significant course correction for the ruling camp towards modern conservatism." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/473644-jesli-to-jest-ta-straszna-ciepla-woda-to-oby-poplynela -- MAREK BOROWSKI ON BARON MUNCHAUSEN - in a comment for Oko: "Mateusz Morawiecki is the Baron Münchhausen of Polish politics. His specialty is various kinds of unfounded stories and announcements laced with pathos. When it turns out that almost nothing has been realized, he smoothly moves on to the next grand announcements, promises, and another portion of sauce." -- EMPTY WORDS, KURSKI WILL CONTINUE TO DO HIS OWN THING - FURTHER FROM BOROWSKI: "However, if the prime minister had said that he would take action to make public media truly public media, that what has been up to now would now end, I would understand that he is extending a hand. Without that, his words are empty. He will do his own thing, the president will say his own thing, and Jacek Kurski will say his own thing. Soon, the memory of the exposé will pass, and we will collide with reality. And then it will turn out how much these announcements were worth." https://oko.press/marek-borowski-ocenia-expose-dla-oko-press-zamiast-premiera-mamy-barona-munchhausena-i-jego-fantazje/ -- PATRIOTIC PHRASES AND CONTRADICTIONS - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: "Self-praise is Morawiecki's middle name. We are achieving successes, and in the next four-year term, there will be even more of them – he announced. He did not mention that the keel laid for the famous ferry has long since rusted." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25425722,expose-patriotycznych-frazesow-i-sprzecznosci.html -- CAN PIS HOLD ITS GROUND AGAINST STRONGER GUSTS? - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "The government has fulfilled the most spectacular promises. However, it is uncertain whether the budget will be able to afford them in the long term. With the deteriorating global economic situation and the lack of additional funds for their implementation, it may be difficult to implement the social programs promised before the elections, hence the appropriation of money from OFE, searching for money for the 13th pension from funds for the disabled, a sharp increase in excise duty, or the abolition of the 30-fold ZUS limit. Today, all that is certain is that another global economic crisis is approaching, and the PiS government is a colossus with feet of clay, which may have trouble standing upright at the first significant gusts." https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/311199925-Nizinkiewicz-Co-mowi-audyt-rzadow-PiS.html -- OVERREPRESENTATION OF NORMALITY BECAUSE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ONE MUST BE CENTRIST - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN GAZETA.PL: "The overrepresentation of 'normality' in Prime Minister Morawiecki's speech is also related to the de facto ongoing presidential campaign. The elections, which will take place at the end of May next year, will determine whether PiS will be able to govern until the end of its term, or whether it will be forced (in case of defeat) to call early elections (this would be a highly probable scenario without a Senate and losing the presidency). Presidential elections, unlike other elections, do not solely rely on mobilizing one's most loyal electorate. These votes have always been won (or lost) in the center. Until the end of May, PiS is therefore forced to play the role of a party of moderation, dialogue, and precisely, normality. Regardless of whether anyone believes in such a transformation. Without centrist voters, Andrzej Duda can forget about re-election, and PiS about calmly completing their second term." -- PIS MUST NOW RELATE TO OPPONENTS DIFFERENTLY - FURTHER FROM ROGOJSZ: "All this is to avoid alienating anyone. Not only among voters but also in the opposition benches. At Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters], they know perfectly well how fragile PiS's majority in the Sejm is and how many problems they have had and will have with coalition partners who have grown stronger. Therefore, PiS will not once or twice want or have to seek support in the opposition benches for Sejm votes. Therefore, they must begin to relate to their political opponents in a completely different way than they have so far. To engage in a much more subtle and thoughtful game with them. And this is a completely new political reality for PiS." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25426094,expose-premiera-morawieckiego-pokazuje-ze-sytuacja-mocno-sie.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jadwiga Rotnicka, Jacek Merkel, Jolanta Pieńkowska.

Łukasz Mężyk