state of play: 11/18/2019

THE STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski - Deeper reforms may be possible someday, but not now; Sawczuk - With the Left in Sejm, it will be harder for PO to prove it's an alternative; Budka leads KO voter poll

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MARSHAL OF THE SENATE LIVES IN A CAGE - SE's lead story. -- BUDKA 30, KID AWA 23, TUSK 11, TRZASKOWSKI 10, NOWACKA 7, BREJZA 5, SCHETYNA 4, LUBNAUER 3, MUCHA 2 - answers from KO supporters in a Kantar poll for "Wysokie Obcasy" on who should lead KO. -- BUDKA ALSO LEADS AMONG WOMEN - Krzysztof Pacewicz on the poll for GW: "Our poll: Civic Coalition supporters would most like to see Borys Budka or Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska as the new leader. Donald Tusk and Grzegorz Schetyna are far behind. Our study shows that if voters were to decide on the KO leader, Kidawa-Błońska would have a chance, as her deficit to Budka is only 7 percentage points. Kidawa-Błońska enjoys significantly higher support among female KO supporters (29%) than among male supporters (15%). However, Budka is also ahead of her among female supporters – he is in the lead." https://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,163229,25419258,sprawdzilismy-kogo-chca-polacy-na-czele-platformy-tusk-i-schetyna.html -- RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI ON NOT RUNNING - tells Jacek Nizinkiewicz in Rzeczpospolita: "As announced, I am focusing on Warsaw – that's what I agreed on with the residents of our city. I also cannot imagine a situation where Warsaw falls into the hands of a PiS commissioner." -- I WILL NOT ALLOW DISCRIMINATION IN WARSAW - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES: "The declaration is being implemented. I will not allow discrimination in Warsaw because of sexual orientation, beliefs, religion, or convictions. The duty of the city mayor is to create good conditions for all those who are doing well, and to extend a helping hand to those who have limited opportunities to realize their ambitions: people with disabilities, seniors, or representatives of minorities that PiS wants to push to the margins of society. No one in Warsaw should feel discriminated against. I am implementing the Charter's provisions. I spoke about anti-discrimination classes, and they have been put into practice. Now we are preparing for voluntary sex education classes, I only fear that sex education will soon be banned in Poland by PiS. And in today's times, such education is essential." https://www.rp.pl/Warszawa/191119561-Deklaracja-LGBT-jest-realizowana-w-Warszawie.html -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON PLATFORM'S PRIMARY PROBLEM - writes in Onet: "Platforma has a problem – no one except Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska is eager to run in the presidential primaries. An event that was supposed to capture voters' attention might end in embarrassment. Our sources in the PO leadership, however, claim that it is unlikely he will run. 'Radek doesn't believe it's a real race,' says an important PO MP. Sikorski has run in primaries before – in 2010, he lost to Bronisław Komorowski, who later became president. - Sikorski believes he was a 'rabbit' for Komorowski then. Now he doesn't want to be Kidawa's 'rabbit,' says our source from the Platform." -- WHAT ARE PRIMARIES WITHOUT CANDIDATES - STANKIEWICZ QUOTES PO POLITICIANS: "There is a slight nervousness in the party because if no one registers besides Kidawa, the entire political plan will collapse. The primaries were supposed to draw voters' attention to Platform and increase the chances of promoting a candidate who would have a chance in a duel with Andrzej Duda. There were supposed to be debates and trips around Poland. If only Kidawa registers, none of that will happen. The head of an important PO region adds: - We are on the path to embarrassment. What kind of primaries are these without candidates? (...) - Schetyna didn't want to listen to us when we warned that Kidawa is on a roll and there might be no one willing to race against her, says a prominent Platform politician, a former government member, an opponent of the PO leader." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/prawybory-w-po-beda-fikcja-schetyna-szuka-kontrkandydatow-dla-kidawy-blonskiej/lnw26bl -- GRODZKI IS MORE PLATFORM WITHIN PLATFORM - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "contrary to the opinion that Grodzki brings a new quality to Polish politics, for now, he resembles the distilled ideal of a Platform man. Professor, director, professional. Rule of law – yes. "Odyssey in search of happiness and fulfilled dreams" – yes. Jaguar – yes. Plus moderate progress within the law. Is more Platform within Platform the best answer to our problems? A good question." -- IN THE SEJM WITH THE LEFT, IT WILL BE HARDER FOR PLATFORM TO CONVINCE IT'S AN ALTERNATIVE - SAWCZUK CONTINUES: "Finally, we still know little about the new Marshal of the Senate's views on many contemporary social and political issues. Now, it's enough for the Left to submit some bill in the Sejm on tax or cultural matters to check if Platform is worth anything, or if it will march in lockstep with Kaczyński's party. If it turns out that Platform shares views similar to PiS on many issues, it will be harder to convince voters that PO is the only alternative to Jarosław Kaczyński's party, and moreover, a truly European and liberal alternative." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/11/18/tomasz-grodzki-marszalek-senatu-platforma-obywatelska-komentarz/ -- PERHAPS DEEPER REFORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEDAY, BUT NOT TODAY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: "It seems that although many threads will remain current, both sides of the Polish dispute have reached an important boundary. Law and Justice has learned that even excellent economic and social results, and a certain clear psychological advantage, are not enough to give the party a clear majority to carry out reforms concerning the deepest foundations of the state. Perhaps someday this will be possible, but not today. Three decades of the Third Republic, and the communist period before it, have created such strong, structurally embedded forces that they cannot be broken by ordinary assaults. This can only be done in a situation of some earthquake, some revolution** – in any case, something external to normal, democratic political processes." -- THE OPPOSITION HAS ALSO REACHED A WALL - ACCORDING TO KARNOWSKI - IT'S NOT ANTI-PIS THAT STOOD IN THE WAY OF PIS'S CRUSHING TRIUMPH: "It proposes more 'golden faces,' believing that this or that politician, articulating platitudes more or less skillfully, can replace a credible idea for Poland. Moreover, it was not furious anti-PiS that stood in the way of Kaczyński's party's crushing triumph, but more or less conservative groups: PSL, Kukiz, and Konfederacja. This has and will have consequences. Anti-PiS incantations already sound exceptionally empty today, and will sound even more archaic. They no longer carry any content, not even subjective. Paradoxically, also thanks to the opposition's success in the Senate, its takeover falsifies the entire narrative of an inevitable march towards dictatorship." -- A COMPLETELY NEW SITUATION WHOSE OUTLINES ARE JUST BEGINNING TO BE VISIBLE - KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: "The idea of exterminating PiS died definitively on October 13th. One cannot treat 8 years of rule as an episode, a mistake, something that can be erased from the pages of history. The sanitary cordon will soon become a relic. Overall, after the elections, we have a completely new situation, both political and psychological, whose outlines are only beginning to become visible. Whoever is able to respond better to the new challenges will be able to think about victory in 2023." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/473274-obie-strony-polskiego-sporu-doszly-do-jakiejs-waznej-granicy -- Onet reports on Bogdan Zdrojewski's interview with Wprost, in which he speaks about the necessity of raising the retirement age: "Zdrojewski stressed that PO should tell voters that when it comes to power, it will raise the retirement age. - It should explain that the current system dooms millions of Poles to starvation pensions. A responsible politician must have the courage to tell the truth, and above all, bear responsibility not only for the here and now, but also for the future condition of their nation – he added. When asked that raising the retirement age was the decision that caused PO to lose the election, Zdrojewski replied: "I don't think so." - I don't believe it. Of course, it was not a popular decision. The fact is that it was poorly justified. Practically without convincing arguments – he assessed. - Nevertheless, it was a reform consisting of a very gentle, gradual withdrawal from the inevitable crisis of pension benefits. It is only thanks to the current economic situation that PiS owes the lack of immediate consequences of its irresponsible decisions today – Zdrojewski added." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/senator-bogdan-zdrojewski-po-powinna-podniesc-wiek-emerytalny/40r7y2r -- PLATFORM DISTANCES ITSELF FROM ZDROJEWSKI'S WORDS, MARCELINA WANTS THE 30-FOLD CAP NOT TO BE REJECTED ON THE FIRST READING - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/11/18/ -- JAROSŁAW FLIS ON THE BEGINNING OF PIS'S TERM SIMILAR TO TUSK'S IN 2011: "We have the first troubles of the ruling party, and this is also not new. We know this from the past. PO raised the retirement age, although it denied this during the campaign. Later, it explained that it was necessary, but in the end, it paid the price for it. Now, PiS also said during the campaign that it had solutions for everything, but after the elections, it turned out not necessarily. It is evident that campaigning is much easier than managing a country afterwards. The campaign will accept anything, and now one has to truly deal with it." -- GRODZKI IS NOT A WUNDERWAFFE - FLIS CONTINUES: "It seems to me that this is not a realistic idea, although it shows the drought on the opposition's side at the same time, so such a variant can be considered. However, Marshal Grodzki is not some wunderwaffe, although on the other hand, no other is visible. This is a difficult issue for PO, and it certainly must be resolved there, and in the near future." https://wiadomo.co/prof-jaroslaw-flis-po-musialaby-wystawic-ogorek-by-nie-wejsc-do-ii-tury/ -- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE SECURITY SERVICES' BLUNDER ALLOWING CRIMINALS NEAR THE PRIME MINISTER: "The services have an obligation to check even the smallest signals. The Government Protection Bureau always enters the premises before the Prime Minister arrives. It checks the area and the place the Prime Minister is visiting. Unless – and this would be worse than amateurism – the presence of Nazis, football hooligans, and bandits was not viewed negatively by the government protection services. This is another time when PiS politicians have appeared against a backdrop of gangsters. Earlier, we learned that the head of NIK rented a tenement house to people from the pimp world so they could run a "rooms by the hour" business. How does the police work, how does it communicate with special services? Is this a well-organized state, or a state made of cardboard? Where is Sheriff Mariusz Kamiński, who allows such blunders to occur? https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25420267,uscisk-dloni-premiera.html -- THE 30-FOLD CAP IS TO CLARIFY WHETHER THE SEJM OR NOWOGRODZKA RULES - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: "Why is this project appearing now? It is another test for the leader, or rather an attempt to arrange the pieces on the board. PiS wants to corner the opposition into positions from which it tried to escape during the campaign, namely into the camp of defenders of the wealthiest. Because not only do they not want the highest earners to contribute more to the common pension pot, but they could also lead to a situation where the generous PiS will not have money to fulfill its election promises. And who knows, maybe it will even affect the collapse of the 500+ program, the pearl in the crown of the United Right? And who will be to blame? Of course, Grzegorz Schetyna and Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. The project concerning the 30-fold cap is intended not so much to increase budget revenues (which is not insignificant) as to clarify the political situation at the beginning of a new term. Because power is to remain with Nowogrodzka, not Wiejska." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/311179962-Dabrowska-Prezes-ustala-nowe-granice.html -- DGP ON AMERICANS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO BUILD A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN POLAND: "The first Polish nuclear power plant, if it is ever built, is to operate on one of three technologies: an American Westinghouse AP1000 reactor, a Korean APR-1400, or a French EPR. According to our sources, the American option is 'preferred.'" https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/news/artykuly/613074,pierwsza-polska-elektrownia-atomowa-pieniadze.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Łukasz Turski, Krzysztof Jurgiel, Aleksandra Zarzycka.

Łukasz Mężyk