state of play: 11/16/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Żakowski: Burned-out revolution, autumn for PiS like autumn '86 for PRL, Pacewicz: Szczecin's Pawłowicz falsified by TVP, Grodzki: Cape of Good Hope, Rokita: Tusk's resignation gave Dudą momentum

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRESIDENT OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL, JULIA PRZYŁĘBSKA TURNS 60 TODAY. -- MORAWIECKI INVITES ALL LIVING FORMER PRIME MINISTERS TO EXPOSE – 300POLITYKA FINDS OUT: https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/11/16/pmm-zaprasza-bylych-premierow-na-wtorkowe-expose/ -- 300 ON AIR: I WORRY ABOUT OLGA TOKARCZUK. MĘŻYK: AND I WORRY ABOUT JAN ŚPIEWAK - 300POLITYKA PODCAST: What else does Dr. Adam Bodnar say in an interview with 300POLITYKA: * The standard of the rule of law has declined in recent years, which does not mean that this principle is not respected in every court ruling. * The intersection of our lives with politics is growing, politics is radiating on us more and more. * Harassment of journalists or non-governmental organizations is new – this is a new thing. * How are we to know how the special services operate when there is no supervisory body over them? * The introduction of cyclical gatherings is a serious breach in terms of civil liberties. * We have encountered the harassment of demonstrators. * In the case of the equality march in Białystok, perhaps Minister Witek did not have as much influence on the police as her predecessor – Minister Brudziński. * Some mayors from PO behave in a way inconsistent with their stated views regarding equality marches. https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/11/16/300-on-air-bodnar-obawiam-sie-o-olge-tokarczuk-mezyk-a-ja-o-jana-spiewaka-bodnar-bede-podejmowal-okreslone-decyzje-procesowe-w-jego-sprawach/ -- 300 ON AIR PODCAST AVAILABLE ON ITUNES: https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast/300-on-air/id1480593474 -- SCHETYNA STILL LEADING PO IS A THREAT TO THE PLATFORM – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “But the greater the conviction among voters that PO has remained the same, meaning the establishment that lost the local, European, and parliamentary elections has remained in power, the more willing they will be to turn to someone who wants to fight independently of party structures. Grzegorz Schetyna is not a popular politician among opposition voters. They will be looking for someone who will give them hope for a new opening and a step forward. If such a scenario were to materialize, Schetyna's victory would be superficial, and in fact could mean the defeat of his camp – if a civic candidate overtakes the PO candidate, it will be a disgrace for this formation. PO activists thus have a tough nut to crack: on the one hand, a war within the party can be devastating, on the other hand, relative peace within Platform and leaving the old establishment can also backfire on the party.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25414405,zwyciestwo-schetyny-byloby-grozne-dla-samej-platformy.html -- SENATE MARSHAL TOMASZ GRODZKI RESPONDS TO ACCUSATIONS: “I have absolutely no idea about this matter. I am preparing a statement that will put an end to these speculations, because I will not allow my good name to be tarnished. I learned about the whole affair indirectly – he denies it in an interview with Onet.” -- SENATE MARSHAL ASKED ABOUT HIS ASSET DECLARATION: “I don't want to be misunderstood, but… I am not ashamed of my assets, because they were earned through hard, honest work. Fellow cardiothoracic surgeons with similar positions to mine, who are among the few in the country dealing with lung transplants, etc., and are recognized specialists, at my age, for example in America, are more likely to be looking for private jets than long-term car leases, because I couldn't afford to buy one outright – he tells Onet.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/tomasz-grodzki-odpowiada-tvp-nie-wstydze-sie-swojego-majatku/l61vhd8 -- SZCZECIN'S PAWŁOWICZ FALSIFIED BY TVP – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO: “Contrary to TVP's propaganda, the Szczecin biologist Prof. Popiela did not claim on FB that she bribed Prof. Grodzki in 1998. What's more, she quickly softened her posts. But Radio Publiczne creates a fake infographic, and TVP's "Wiadomości" presents an Orwellian report. Why is this Grodzki so dangerous? OKO.press analyzes what remains online and what has disappeared from it.” -- PACEWICZ CITES A MODIFIED POST: “On November 14, Popiela emphasizes that ‘Prof. T. Grodzki is an outstanding cardiac surgeon who helped my late Mother, for which I am grateful. If it was a foundation, and I mistakenly did not receive confirmation of payment, I will gladly apologize’.” https://oko.press/operacja-grodzki-czyli-500-dolarow-plus-inne-hejty-szczecinska-pawlowicz-sfalszowana-przez-tvp/ -- HEALTH IS DYING IN SILENCE – TOMASZ GRODZKI IN CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Health is dying all the time, just in silence. Departments are being closed, operating rooms are being closed, even in the large Warsaw hospital on Banacha. Hospital debts are growing as never before. Without results, no one is satisfied, neither doctors, nor other medical staff, nor patients.” -- GRODZKI ON 7 THOUSAND SMS MESSAGES: “I see enormous enthusiasm related to our victory in the upper house. Do you know what madness took place here when I was elected? Look, I have 7,000 missed SMS messages on my phone, and I have already replied to 2,000.” -- ABORTION ON DEMAND IS A BAD IDEA – GRODZKI CONTINUES: “Why controversial? I am for maintaining the compromise, i.e., the provisions of the current law, i.e., legal abortion when a woman's life and health are threatened, when the fetus is irreversibly damaged, or when the pregnancy is the result of a crime. Considering all ethical and moral aspects, it is a huge tragedy for a woman, for a family. Therefore, everything within the power of politicians should be done to prevent these abortions. But not to ban abortion altogether. However, I believe that abortion on demand is a bad idea. In the era of sex education, contraceptives, in the era of medicine developing to save and maintain difficult cases in good, full life, such a dramatic act should not be performed on demand.” -- THE SENATE IS A CAPE OF GOOD HOPE – GRODZKI CONTINUES: “We came to the Senate for this reason, which is why I agreed to become marshal, to show that the Senate can be a cape of new hope.” -- GRODZKI ON HIS GENERATION AND SCHETYNA'S: “Schetyna is from my generation. The one when the Independent Students' Association was being born, when there were student strikes. I get along great with him, especially when we talk in the privacy of his office. Outdoors, in a crowd, he sometimes behaves a bit differently. He is not a one-dimensional person, and I believe that his assessment by the media is sometimes unfair.” -- TOMASZ GRODZKI ON TYRMAND: “Recently, Tyrmand's 'The Bad One'. For the second time, there are no more beautiful descriptions with vocatives, no more beautiful descriptions of post-war Warsaw.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25414563,marszalek-tomasz-grodzki-jak-ojczyzna-cie-wyksztalcila-dala.html -- JAN ROKITA ON THE IMPETUS FOR DUDĄ'S CAMPAIGN: “The first and direct consequence of Donald Tusk's abdication from running for president is the additional impetus that Andrzej Duda's campaign receives at the start. On November 5, everyone in Poland understood that the European Council President, whose term is ending, had concluded that he would lose next year's election in competition with the current head of state. And it was solely this fear, and not any other rationalizations invented ex post, that decided this abdication.” -- ROKITA ON THE NEW PLATFORM'S ROUTINE: “The key question for the new Platform is therefore: with whom, prospectively (and not just for the moment), does it plan to confront on the ideological field? With PiS, to which habit and current routine incline it? Or with the growing left, which in a few years may turn out to be the main competitor to PiS for power? And this is precisely where the paradox begins, which the leadership and activists of Platform (as I have felt for a long time) poorly understand. If the Platform, democratized after Tusk, does not answer this question, then (just like the Freedom Union once) it will be destroyed from within by ideological disputes, and from the outside it will be crushed by the juggernaut of an immense and very clear ideological conflict that PiS will wage with the new left.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/473179-rokita-w-sieci-po-po-abdykacji-tuska -- PIS IS NO LONGER THE SAME, APPARENTLY THE PARTY IS THE SAME, BUT THE SPARK IS GONE – JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN WP: “PiS is no longer the same. United Right is no longer the same. The government is no longer the same. The entire revolution is no longer the same. A prophet would probably say: 'Without hearts, without spirit, these are peoples of skeletons.' There is no trace of virginity. In the entire ruling camp, only Antoni Macierewicz demonstrates revolutionary zeal. Zbigniew Ziobro also tried right after the elections, but his colleagues from PiS clipped the wings of Solidarna Polska and perhaps their own. In the parliamentary hall, Ziobro sat like an exhibit in Madame Tussaud's gallery. And the Niagara of self-praise presented by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki irritated even Madam Marshal Elżbieta Witek. The government is the same, the party is the same, the people are almost the same, and the program is the same – yet the spark is gone.” -- THE RISING WAVE HAS EXHAUSTED ITSELF, THE INEVITABLE DECLINE HAS BEGUN – ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES: “A very long, perhaps four-year, ascent has begun, during which PiS will have to climb to the next election, to most likely lose it. PiS leaders already feel this. A foretaste of future defeat poisons the taste of current power in Nowogrodzka. For four years, PiS had it easy. Now that has ended. The ascending phase has been exhausted, and the inevitable, though slow, decline has begun. If I had to find a comparison that might remind some of you of something, I would say that autumn 2019 for the PiS government is roughly what autumn 1986 was for the PRL government. Everything seems to be under control, the government has almost all the tools of governance, but the wind of history is already starting to blow in the sails of the opposition.” -- THE VITALITY OF PIS IS GONE FOREVER – ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES IN WP: “Fatigue and stress do not help win elections. Voters do not want groaning or agitated leaders. The strength of PiS was its vitality, self-confidence, effectiveness, freshness (often out-of-this-world) ideas. All of this has probably disappeared forever. At least for this round. The President already understands that before his party wins any election again, it will most likely have to lose. And probably more than once. That's how the wheel of fortune turns.” -- THIS PROCESS HAS BEGUN AND WILL MARCH ON – ŻAKOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “At least until the next election, it will groan, stumble, fall, and get up, until one day after the election it wakes up somewhere in the bushes. This process has begun. And it will now mercilessly march before our eyes.” https://magazyn.wp.pl/artykul/wypalona-rewolucja -- JAN KARNOWSKI ON A TELEGRAPH ARTICLE PRAISING THE EXAMPLE OF PIS POLICY: “The publicist wonders if, after the expected victory in the December parliamentary elections, Boris Johnson will have a chance to govern for longer than 5 years, i.e., if he will be able to lead his government's policy in such a way as to be able to fight for re-election. 'Today the Prime Minister also has an open door in this direction, and he can borrow some of these ideas. The Tories are not yet the British version of Polish Law and Justice; Prime Minister Johnson still stubbornly adheres to his socially and economically liberal beliefs, but he is clearly moving in this direction. It is unlikely that he will have this territory to himself when he faces voters in another five years.' An interesting opinion, sometimes heard in Poland too, but not very loudly. And it's worth remembering. From this perspective, the program proposal presented to Poles by Kaczyński's party is not a return to the inglorious past, but a very modern, even innovative project, well-suited to the latest social trends in Europe, and even Western Europe. It is a project that may find imitators in other countries, including – as we read – in Great Britain.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/473171-brytyjski-dziennikarz-o-polityce-pis-ktora-wyznacza-trendy -- A PEACOCK CAN DEFEAT A LION – ON FOCUSAWICZ BY SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI AND PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN GW: “Kidawa has an image similar to Jolanta Kwaśniewska's, whose candidacy was considered for the highest office for similar reasons. The First Lady is similarly revered – the halo effect – in the eyes of voters as the president himself. Hence, points can flow to Kidawa-Błońska not only when she behaves in the campaign as Poles think a president should behave (i.e., by showing his non-partisanship), but also as a First Lady (showing commitment to the needy, participating in charity events, etc.). (...) A particularly important group of voters are those who do not support PiS, but do support Duda. The halo effect works particularly on them. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska's distinction can partially balance this effect – and if there were a direct confrontation, it could 'expose' Duda, i.e., show the difference between the person himself and the distinguished office.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25414584,kaczynski-nocny-lowca-duda-krol-lew-biedron-pluszowy-misiek.html -- AGNIESZKA HOLLAND WOULD LIKE BODNAR – AS SHE TELLS GRZEGORZ WYSOCKI IN GW: “My dream candidate? I'm being banal and saying: Adam Bodnar. Because I dream of a non-partisan candidate, which is, of course, unrealistic, because all these magpies have to puff up their feathers. But Bodnar would be a wonderful president. Smart, educated, absolutely devoted to human rights and law in general, calm, non-aggressive, patient. He has his views, of course, but he doesn't use them to perform his duties; he is interested in the specific matter, the specific person, and the law, EU treaties, conventions.” -- HOLLAND ON HOŁOWNIA'S CHANCES: “Certainly a likeable fellow, brave in expressing his views, also ideological, works in Africa, writes about not eating meat. As soon as Hołownia started to be talked about, the left reacted furiously, saying that another churchgoer was running, but realistically speaking, only another Catholic could win against the bigoted Duda. But a more open one. There are no real chances that the opposition parties will agree that this would be their joint candidate. And he won't do anything on his own. I'm not saying Poles couldn't vote for a celebrity, especially since they voted for Duda, who was Mr. Nobody. And Hołownia is a likeable guy, recognizable, intelligent, and also a Catholic and activist whom one can trust on a human level.” -- HOLLAND WILL VOTE FOR KIDAWĘ: “– I've known and liked her for years, and she would also perform this function beautifully. Of course, I will vote for her. She certainly has the ability to conciliate and is non-aggressive. The question is whether this wouldn't harm her in the campaign.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25414702,agnieszka-holland-teraz-to-juz-wole-holownie-niz-biedronia.html -- STEFAN CHWIN SEES NO ONE WHO COULD WIN AGAINST DUDĄ: “I don't want to disappoint you, but I don't see any opposition candidate who would currently have a chance to win against Andrzej Duda. (...) In a clash with Duda, only one man could win today. Someone like a young Aleksander Kwaśniewski, a sensible, intelligent, and reasonable person, who besides having a high IQ, danced disco polo brilliantly on pre-election stages. However, my eyes do not see such a person in Poland today. I had hoped that after the May defeat, Platform would shake off 'old activists' from its organizational tree like overripe pears and present some young guy with verve, the same age as Duda, rather an engineer than an intellectual, who could enter small towns and villages. Unfortunately, nothing like this has happened, which makes me quite angry.” -- ALSO IN GW, ADAM ZAGAJEWSKI TAKES A DIG AT PAD: “I am hesitating between Ignacy Paderewski, Ignacy Daszyński, and Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski. The first loved music. Ignacy Daszyński was a true fighter, as they say today, and his biography contains at least two Shakespearean dramas and two Spielberg films. Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski was firmly grounded, he wanted a European and modern Poland. Someone will say: but they have been dead for a long time! That's true. However, one only needs to look at the current president. He is alive – so what?” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25414701,stefan-chwin-z-duda-wygrac-moglby-dzisiaj-tylko-jeden.html -- ADAM HOFMAN ON KACZYŃSKI'S SCHOOL AS A POLITICAL HARVARD – HE TELLS PIOTR WITWICKI IN RZ: “Above all, patience. He is a man who waited a long time to gather everything in politics. I also learned one thing that came in handy during this crisis. And on my own example, at that. When we had a crisis in the party and everything was burning, Jarosław sat and read the newspaper. I wondered: how can he be so calm? And he was putting the matter aside in a place that didn't exist. From that moment on, it was beyond him. This is essential when you are attacked so often. You close it in such a box, and it doesn't exist for you.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/311159996-Adam-Hofman-Praktykowalem-u-mistrza-Kaczynskiego.html -- NATIONALISTS IN CENTRAL EUROPE LIKE THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD – ZIEMOWIT SZCZEREK IN GW: “Nationalists are becoming the Eastern European Muslim Brotherhood: even when 'illiberal' regimes in Hungary or Poland fall, they will push their way into power, not democrats.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25413380,gdy-orban-i-kaczynski-upadna-do-wladzy-dopchaja-sie.html -- PROF. ANTONI DUDEK, BASED ON HIS BOOK, TELLS MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KP ABOUT AMERICAN PRESSURE ON WAŁĘSA REGARDING BALCEROWICZ: “It's simple: at some point, the Americans told Wałęsa that Balcerowicz had to stay. And so firmly that when Wałęsa already knew he would win the election, i.e., between the first and second rounds, in December 1990, he even offered him the position of Prime Minister. Balcerowicz refused because he believed he was not suited for representative roles and was only interested in the economy. In this situation, Wałęsa promised him that he would become Deputy Prime Minister.” -- DUDEK ON THE US AMBASSADOR'S CONVERSATION WITH JAN KRZYSZTOF: “No, because he was supposed to be the only one, not one of four as in the Mazowiecki government. And the extent of Washington's pressure is evidenced by the fact that when the fate of Bielecki becoming head of government was being decided, Daniel Fried, later US Ambassador, came to him and told him roughly: it is not a good solution for you to become Prime Minister, because you are an economist and you will interfere with Balcerowicz. I write more about this in my book.” -- DUDEK'S INTERESTING ACCOUNT OF HOW THE SUCHOCKA GOVERNMENT REALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO UNDERESTIMATING VAT REVENUE: “That's the thing… When Osiatyński later became Minister of Finance himself in Hanna Suchocka's government, he did not demand a different policy and effectively negotiated with the IMF. Moreover, he achieved great economic success, which, however, turned out to be the source of his government's political failure. The Suchocka government introduced VAT, and it was a truly modernizing move for the state's tax system. But just as Balcerowicz underestimated the recession in 1991, so Osiatyński underestimated the revenue potential from VAT. Yes, but for this reason, increases for the public sector were refused. This led to 'Solidarity's' motion of no confidence in the government, and former minister Dyka – as he himself claims – got stuck in the toilet and did not make it to the vote, as a result, the government fell by one vote. The elections called by Wałęsa were won by SLD, and in the autumn of 1993, it turned out that VAT revenues were high enough to have comfortably granted that increase.” -- THE SLD SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE COSTS OF TRANSFORMATION – ANTONI DUDEK CONTINUES AT SUTOWSKI'S: “Economically, certainly yes, because after 1991 we were coming out of a deep recession towards recovery. From this point of view, the toughest enforcer of the costs of transformation was rather SLD than Balcerowicz. Minister Kołodko in 1993–1997 had much more to distribute, economic growth was even seven percent at that time, yet they continued a rather tough course. So I think they should be the first to account for the costs of transformation.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/antoni-dudek-od-mazowieckiego-do-suchockiej-michal-sutowski-wywiad/ -- MORAWIECKI'S FOREHAND SMASH – TABLE TENNIS COACH ON MORAWIECKI'S STYLE – IN WP: “On Friday, the Prime Minister temporarily took over the Ministry of Sport. Morawiecki was a competitive athlete in his youth – he was one of the leading table tennis players in the country in his age group. His former coach tells Wirtualna Polska that the Prime Minister 'has forgotten nothing.' – He hits a great forehand smash – he says.” https://wroclaw.onet.pl/mateusz-morawiecki-i-ping-pong-byly-trener-komentuje-forme-premiera/62f6yms -- ABOLITION OF THE THIRTY-FOLD LIMIT, OR HOW NOT TO DO POLITICS – JANINA PETELCZYC IN KRYTYKA ABOUT THE IMPACT ON NFZ FINANCES: “Social insurance and the budget are interconnected systems, and the abolition of the thirty-fold limit may cause completely unexpected costs, such as a reduction in healthcare spending. Why? Well, because the basis for calculating health insurance contributions is reduced by the amounts of contributions for pension, disability, and sickness insurance financed by the employee. Therefore, after exceeding 30-fold, the basis for calculating contributions to the NFZ after the limit is abolished will be lower. Has anyone calculated this? Taken it into account? No. No one even mentions it in the justification of the project.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/janina-petelczyc-zniesienie-trzydziestokrotnosci-emerytury-komentarz/ -- LEFT, DO NOT NEGOTIATE WITH PIS ON ZUS – ALEKSANDRA SOBCZAK IN WYBORCZA: “I believe that no party calling itself democratic should legitimize this PiS project. By supporting the increase in contributions at this time, the left would help PiS get out of the lie about a balanced budget, which it fed to voters during the campaign. Why do it? Let them contort themselves, looking for revenues and savings, and let them think if it is worth manipulating in this way during the presidential campaign.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,25413996,lewico-nie-negocjuj-z-pis-nad-tym-bublem-grozi-ci-odium-zalewskiej.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Edmund Wittbrodt, Włodzimierz Karpiński, Mieczysław Janowski, Edward Nowak, Grażyna Bukowska, SUNDAY: Igor Ostachowicz (51), Roman Ciepiela, Selim Chazbijewicz.

Łukasz Mężyk