state of play: 11/13/2019

POLITICAL GAME: Fijołek: Duda Shook the Polish Right of Further Layers of Provincialism, Gądek: Apt Recall of Mazowiecki, Szułdrzyński: PAD Broader Than PiS, PMM's Letter to Netflix Reaches Record Audience

Łukasz Mężyk

-- APPOINTMENT ON THURSDAY, SWEARING-IN ON FRIDAY, EXPOSÉ ON TUESDAY - THE POLITICAL CALENDAR FOR THE COMING DAYS ON 300POLITYKA: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/11/13/nieoficjalnie-w-czwartek-desygnacja-premiera-w-piatek-zaprzysiezenie-rzadu-pmm-we-wtorek-expose/ -- BODNAR EXCLUDES RUN: “No, I will not run in the presidential elections next year. I understand the question is related to Jarosław Kursk's article last Saturday. I would like to dispel any doubts. I will not be running in the elections. There are a whole host of reasons why I should not do so,” said the Commissioner for Human Rights, Adam Bodnar, in an interview with Dominika Wielowieyska on Radio TOK FM's Poranek. https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/11/13/bodnar-nie-bede-w-wyborach-prezydenckich-startowal-jest-caly-szereg-powodow-dlaczego-nie-powinienem-tego-robic/ -- PIOTROWICZ WITHDRAWAL AFTER ALL? - as Wojciech Tumidalski writes in RZ: “Since the procedure for nominating candidates for the Constitutional Tribunal will be repeated, there was an idea to nominate lawyer Zbigniew Cichoń, a former senator who did not run this time, in place of Piotrowicz. He himself stated in an interview for 'Rzeczpospolita' that he is not saying 'no'. President Andrzej Duda and PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński were to discuss this on Tuesday.” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1416109-Cichon-za-Piotrowicza.html -- SZEFERNAKER ON PiS AS CDU - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/11/13/ -- MORAWIECKI'S INTERVENTION REGARDING NETFLIX'S HISTORICAL FALSEHOOD IN 350 PUBLICATIONS WORLDWIDE: https://wpolityce.pl/swiat/472572-caly-swiat-komentuje-list-morawieckiego-do-szefa-netflixa -- SO HELP ME GOD LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS TERMS - GW ANALYSIS: During the parliamentary oath-taking of 361 MPs of the 9th term, 361 MPs invoked God. This is the lowest number since 2005. The majority in the Sejm has been invoking God during parliamentary oaths since 1997. The official oath text, read by the senior marshal Aleksander Małachowski, did not include this phrase at the time. Perhaps this is why, although groups originating from "Solidarity" held a majority in the Sejm, only 70 MPs uttered the words “So help me God” in 1991. Interestingly, neither Jarosław Kaczyński nor Lech Kaczyński swore by God at that time. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25403835,adam-bodnar-nie-wystartuje-w-wyborach-na-prezydenta.html -- PIOTR KACZYSZCZYN, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF PORTAL KLUBJAGIELLONSKI.PL ON WHY IT WOULD BE BETTER IF PAD'S NARRATIVE WON OVER MACIEREWICZ'S NARRATIVE: “The speeches of Andrzej Duda and Antoni Macierewicz, in a nutshell, showed the fundamental identity tension within the United Right. The speeches of the President and the senior Marshal are two symbolic faces of the 'good change' camp, two alternative visions of Polishness and the Polish political community. For the good of our homeland, it is better for Andrzej Duda's narrative to win.” -- ON THE DEFINITION OF POLE PRESENTED BY THE PRESIDENT - KACZYSZCZYN CONTINUES: “The President goes even further, uttering at one point words significant from the perspective of political philosophy: 'A Pole is anyone who has Poland in their heart.' Such a conceptualization of Polishness means transcending what is religious, and even what is cultural. Polishness understood this way is a kind of existential decision, personal responsibility, a way of life within the political community, with all the rights, obligations, and challenges that follow from this identity decision.” -- POLISHNESS FROM THE HEART VS. RELIGIOUS POLISHNESS: “Just as I pointed to echoes of the concept of agonistic democracy by the left-wing political philosopher Chantal Mouffe in Andrzej Duda's case, one can find an anti-pluralistic vision of aggregative democracy in Macierewicz's writings, stemming from Joseph Schumpeter's works. In this understanding, democracy is simply an arithmetic majority that, through elections, receives a political mandate to carry out political changes without particular regard for the losers. In Macierewicz's case, this Schumpeterian majority gives him alleged legitimacy to harness the state apparatus to realize a vision of a national-Christian Poland. A Polishness more religious than cultural, and certainly far from the 'Polishness of the heart' from President Duda's speech.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/11/12/duda-i-macierewicz-dwie-wizje-polski/ -- PAD IN GOOD FORM AT THE START OF THE RACE - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “President Andrzej Duda's speech – at the inauguration of the new parliamentary term – showed that the informal election campaign has truly begun, and the main interested party in extending his mission in the Presidential Palace is in good form. Of course, one should not overstate today's words and gestures (especially since the elections are still more than half a year away), but nonetheless, President Duda sent a clear signal today that no one in the Palace will concede these elections by walkover.” -- DUDA SHOOK THE RIGHT OF FURTHER LAYERS OF PROVINCIALISM - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “In 2015, President Andrzej Duda shook the Polish right of further layers of provincialism, conducting a professional campaign and adapting his language, message, and style to the needs of the time. Today, the head of state faces a task that is equally difficult, if not more so: on the one hand, to skillfully address conservative voters expecting confirmation of the current course, and on the other, to wrest his voters (real and potential) from harmful 'party' pigeonholes. With his speech on Tuesday, the president showed that he will not lack determination and energy in this task, and his words in the Sejm resonated even more strongly today against the backdrop of the speech by senior Marshal Antoni Macierewicz. The machine has started – if anyone on the opposition side was hoping for a repeat of 2015 and Bronisław Komorowski's campaign drama, they should open their eyes today. Duda will not make Komorowski's mistakes. That doesn't mean victory will come to him easily, without significant obstacles. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/472535-przemowienie-pad-to-dowod-ze-ruszyla-kampanijna-maszyna -- DUDA IS CASTING A WIDER NET THAN PIIS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Why this contradiction? Well, it's a well-thought-out offering. Andrzej Duda sent a signal to the moderate electorate. He is the one who now has to fight for every vote, so he wanted the symbol of the start of his election campaign to be an outstretched hand to the opposition. Duda knows that in the upcoming elections, he needs 8-9 million votes, so he must cast a wider net than just among declared right-wing voters. But at the same time, the ruling camp knows that not a single vote can be wasted – especially on the right. And since Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also delivered a rather technocratic speech that same day, although not devoid of ideological context, something was needed for the other side. Moreover, the structure of the new government is also quite meritocratic; the government will focus on building – as declared – the Polish version of the welfare state and preparing the economy for crisis. Macierewicz's heated speech was therefore intended to be a signal to the hard core electorate that PiS has not forgotten about them.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/311129919-Szuldrzynski-Role-na-prezydencka-kampanie-zostaly-rozdane.html -- DUDA IS NOT AT WAR WITH PSL - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Duda was pleased that all nationwide committees had representation in the Sejm. This includes not only Konfederacja but also the PSL, with which PiS has always fought. A large portion of PSL voters supported Duda in the presidential elections, so the president is not at war with the PSL.” -- GĄDEK ON PAD'S POLEMICS WITH KACZYŃSKI: “A large part of Duda's speech was a polemic with Jarosław Kaczyński's view that on Polish soil, apart from the Church, there is only nihilism. 'Expressed by,' because the PiS leader himself probably doesn't believe it, but uttering such a crude thesis was necessary for him to reach the conservative voter. Of course, Duda did not mention the party leader's name in this polemic. Kaczyński himself, moreover, applauded this part of Duda's speech.” -- APT RECALL OF MAZOWIECKI: “The invocation of Tadeusz Mazowiecki in this context was apt. In 1989, the late Prime Minister said, and today Duda quoted him: 'We are not on lost positions as a nation if we gather the strength, patience, and will to act. Let us have faith in the spiritual and material forces of the nation. I believe God will help us to take a great step on the path that opens before us.' While Kaczyński claimed that 'beyond the Church, there is only nihilism,' Duda says something different: a little more trust in people, Mr. President, including those who are not Catholics.” -- MACIEREWICZ'S LAST POLITICAL SPEECH - GĄDEK CONTINUES: “One may object to the confrontational speech of the former Minister of National Defence, but it was likely Antoni Macierewicz's last politically significant speech. He used the opportunity to present his visions, grievances, and vent his frustrations. Macierewicz has lost influence and can no longer count on real power, only on accolades. Words are all he has left, so he wields them. Andrzej Duda, on the other hand, is concerned with maintaining power, so he weighs every word. Many of them are empty, however. http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25401750,co-duda-i-macierewicz-powiedzieli-miedzy-wierszami-jest-sporo.html -- LET PAD COMMIT THAT NOVEMBER 11 WILL NOT LOOK LIKE A FOOTBALL HOOLIGAN BRAWL - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Andrzej Duda wanted to build a community and bridge divides. Now is the time, regardless of who occupies the Presidential Palace after May, to develop state commemorations of Independence Day. If the president cares about community and the culture of language, let him commit to doing everything he can to ensure that November 11 does not look like a hooligan brawl that Poland is ashamed of worldwide.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/311129902-Nizinkiewicz-Odebrac-Swieto-Niepodleglosci-narodowcom.html -- ALEKSANDER HALL ON SUPPORT FOR KOSINIAK IN THE 1ST ROUND: “This is a very important criterion for me. In Poland, there are many conservatives, Christian democrats, conservative liberals, moderate right-wingers who do not accept PiS policy. They do not have their own political representation. The majority of them, when voting in parliamentary elections, choose the 'lesser evil'. The presidential elections will give them an opportunity to change this situation. I encourage them to cast their vote in the first round for Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. His victory would change everything in Polish politics. It would likely create new political dynamics.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/311129921-Aleksander-Hall-Stawiam-na-prezesa-PSL.html -- FURTHER CLASHES IN THE RULING CAMP ARE A MATTER OF TIME - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONET: “However, the formation of the cabinet showed that the main players in the ruling camp – Morawiecki and Ziobro – harbor pure hatred for each other. Since Ziobro is stronger this term, and the Prime Minister has also been strengthened in the new government setup, further clashes are a matter of time. And this does not bode well for the stability of the ruling camp.” -- CONFEDERATION VS. THE LEFT - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES ON THE NEW SEJM: “The previous Sejm was crippled. Just as there was no right-wing in the Sejms of the mid-90s, the Sejm of 2015-2019 clearly lacked a left-wing. That is, Kaczyński did not lack it, hence his comfortable situation in the Sejm where demands for the liberalization of abortion, same-sex unions, or tightening the screws on the Church did not arise (if they appeared, they were as citizen initiatives – this was the case with abortion, for example). It will be different in this Sejm. Kaczyński will cease to set the tone for the ideological debate, in which the Left will stand opposite Konfederacja.” -- THE SENATE MAY STILL CHANGE - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “However, one should wait to attach importance to the opposition-controlled Senate. Before the first session, PiS politicians tried to bribe several opposition senators with positions. They did not succeed. They have not succeeded so far – because PiS will not give up on tempting. Therefore, during the term, transfers may occur, and PiS may regain control of the Senate. Jarosław Kaczyński can still change this one element in the constellation of unfavorable elements for him in the new parliament.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/to-bedzie-ostry-parlament-piec-powodow-analiza-andrzeja-stankiewicz/npk2b2m -- GALLOPING MAJOR ON THE INDEPENDENCE MARCH AS CULTURAL CLUTTER RATHER THAN EMBRACING FASCISTS: “This folk festival, to which crowds flock not so much to embrace fascists as to participate in red-and-white clutter, is increasingly becoming a kind of anthropological spectacle. On the one hand, we have shouting warriors mentally shaking their hussar wings and performing warrior mating dances, and on the other, increasingly unafraid townspeople for whom the march is a reason for classist mockery of the 'cursed Sebastianes' [a pejorative term for certain types of men]. In this sense, the march is slowly coming to its end, as its main goal is to frighten with the figure of the Polish fascist. At the moment when fear turns into a source of unintended comedy, the march ceases to fulfill its role and becomes a ritualistic, that is, meaningless, hooting.” -- NO ONE VOTES BECAUSE THEY SANG SOMETHING ON THE PONIASTOWSKI BRIDGE - MAJOR CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Contrary to appearances, these marches have not changed anything politically for several years. Just as four years ago a few nationalists entered the Sejm on Kukiz's back, so now a few have entered on Korwin's back. Without these auxiliaries, Polish nationalists have the usual 3 percent, which will probably decrease if journalists only give microphones to Grzegorz Braun or ask MP Korwin about Hitler, the Holocaust, and disabled people. For this reason, I believe that the best thing the left can do is, instead of pushing into the center with some blockades, to do their own marches, honor their heroes without blood on their hands, and above all, fulfill their election promises with a flood of left-wing legislative projects. After all, no one votes because they sang something on the Poniatowski Bridge a year ago or hummed something at the Opole festival. That's why PiS, which doesn't organize marches, has over 40 percent, and nationalists who organize marches have 2-3 percent support.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/marsz-niepodleglosci-jako-ludowy-festyn/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Bratkowski, Adam Szejnfeld, Stanisław Wziątek.

Łukasz Mężyk