state of play: 11/09/2019

POLITICAL ARENA: Kurski vs. Bodnar, defying cigar-fueled directives from the 5th floor, Tusk: I'll back a candidate even if they disagree on some issues, Onet: Dowhan in the crosshairs, Kamiński as Deputy Speaker, Jagiełło: PKO strategy fulfilled 2 years e

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 15 YEARS AGO PKO BP debuted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. -- WE WILL UPDATE THE STRATEGY BECAUSE WE ACHIEVED IT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE - ZBIGNIEW JAGIEŁŁO ON PKO BP RESULTS: “PKO Bank Polski continues its digital transformation strategy and systematically achieves increasingly better and repeatable results. Our group's net profit in the third quarter was PLN 1.23 billion, and assets grew to nearly PLN 342 billion. This is thanks to efficient business operations and sound strategic decisions made in recent years. In the coming weeks, we will present an update to the 'We Support the Development of Poland and Poles' strategy, whose financial goals we achieved two years ahead of schedule,” said Zbigniew Jagiełło, CEO of PKO Bank Polski. https://media.pkobp.pl/komunikaty-prasowe/wyniki-finansowe/kolejny-kwartal-doskonalych-i-powtarzalnych-wynikow/ -- THE SEJM CHANCERY IS WITHDRAWING MOST OF THE INCONVENIENCES FOR JOURNALISTS: https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/11/09/kancelaria-sejmu-wycofuje-sie-z-wiekszosci-ograniczen-dla-dziennikarzy-podczas-posiedzenia-sejmu-nowej-kadencji-12-listopada/ -- ONET ON HOW SCHETYNA AND CZARZASTY MOCKED KOSINIAK DURING A PRESS CONFERENCE: “While the PSL leader was unwilling to disclose the name of his party's candidate for Deputy Speaker of the Senate, citing discussions at the Polish Coalition level, Włodzimierz Czarzasty theatrically rolled his eyes and looked at Grzegorz Schetyna. The Civic Platform leader noticed his reaction, and broad smiles appeared on the politicians' faces. Unaware, Kosiniak-Kamysz continued his address. The material was shared by the TVP Info portal.” -- ONET ON Michał Kamiński BEING THE DEPUTY SPEAKER FROM PSL: “Most likely, Michał Kamiński will become the Deputy Speaker of the Senate nominated by the PSL - Onet has learned. He is a co-creator of PiS's success in 2005, a close associate of Lech Kaczyński, and later a member of Civic Platform and one of the fiercest critics of Jarosław Kaczyński's party. https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ironiczne-usmiechy-liderow-opozycji-w-czasie-konferencji-politycy-dworowali-sobie-za/wpy4kft -- PIS IS TEMPTING DOWHAN - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: “PiS is trying to lure PO senator Robert Dowhan with the position of Minister of Sport - Onet has established. That is why the Prime Minister, when presenting the government's composition on Friday, did not announce the candidate for this single ministry. Winning over Dowhan would give PiS a chance to reclaim the Senate from the opposition. As rumors of his contacts with PiS reached the PO leadership, several party leaders held talks with him on Friday. - He admitted that he received an offer to head the Ministry of Sport. He said that PiS politicians are sometimes tempting him and sometimes pressuring him – one of the PO leaders tells Onet. - But at the same time, he assured us that he is completely loyal and that changing sides would mean infamy for him and his family. - We talked with him many times yesterday. He claimed that he is absolutely not interested in such a proposal - a PO politician who knows Robert Dowhan well tells Onet. - He convinced us of his loyalty, but we will urge him to publicly distance himself from these rumors, as it is most damaging to him.” -- IF HE HAD CLEARLY REFUSED, THEY WOULDN'T BE WAITING FOR HIM - OPPOSITION SENATOR ON DOWHAN: “However, opposition senators from other parties are not so convinced of Dowhan's loyalty. - The fact that PiS has not named the Minister of Sport is clearly a signal to Dowhan that they are waiting for him. He is uncertain. If he had clearly refused, they wouldn't be waiting for him. We know that Robert is being tempted – an opposition senator from outside the Platform tells Onet. https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/stanowisko-w-rzadzie-dla-senatora-po-roberta-dowhana-trwa-kuszenie-roberta/rnnh8wt -- IS PIS THE PARTY OF WARM WATER IN THE TAP? - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN DGP: “Will PiS become the party of warm water in the tap or a completed revolution? And if a revolution, then what kind? (...) Jan Rokita asked in 'Rzeczpospolita' to what extent in its second term PiS will try to remain a party of rebuilding and change – including the mentality of Poles, and to what extent it will be condemned to the role of a warm water in the tap formation, to what extent it will choose safe administration. Especially since the Senate, reclaimed by the opposition, may hinder PiS's bolder undertakings, and the presidential campaign should have a moderating effect on the ruling camp. Although the nomination of Pawłowicz and Piotrowicz shows that this may not necessarily be the case, at least in the symbolic sphere. And if an opposition politician becomes president, the ruling right will be condemned to paralysis of action.” https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1438683,piotr-zaremba-o-pis-i-zmianie-spolecznych-nastrojow.html -- ECONOMY FROM THE HANDS OF THE OLD PIS OLD GUARD TO THE HANDS OF TECHNOCRATS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “It's surprising how many members of the new government, even people who know the right well, had to Google after their names were announced to check, recall their biographies and context. Especially the broadly understood sphere of economic regulation is clearly shifting from the hands of the old PiS cadre to the hands of technocrats. Slogans previously reserved for the left and liberals are also appearing, such as a strong emphasis (a separate ministry!) on climate issues.” -- THE COURSE TOWARDS THE KIEJSKI CLASSES IS MAINTAINED - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “This perhaps best shows the main point of the government's political construction: despite the disappointment that on October 13th, support from the middle and upper-middle classes, content with life and also benefiting from good governance, was lower than expected, the course towards winning them over will be continued. Because there is a second argument here: an independent majority in the Sejm for the second consecutive term. This has weight!” -- THE TEMPTATION OF TURNING RIGHT WAS REJECTED - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The temptation of some turn to the right, or more precisely, playing on the more nationalistic chord, was rejected. The fight for Confederation votes has been postponed, but it's more likely that it's considered not worth entering such a competition at all. The lack of new figures who could be a more distinct voice in this civilizational area is a clear indication. It seems that the center of PiS has decided that the price for such a 'national in content' maneuver would be too high today. The prospect of presidential elections is likely weighing on this decision – in this context, the gains would be small for now, and the losses large.” -- CLOSURE OF THE REVOLUTIONARY STAGE - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “This is – in my opinion – the final closure of the revolutionary stage that was opened in 2015. Now the strength should rather be the defense of normality against extremisms from both sides and the effectiveness of governance in the area of development. And more broadly – a solid renovation of the Third Polish Republic. Critics of this direction will probably hear: it turned out that there is no support for the project of radical state change, despite the successes of the last four years.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/472178-druzyna-ma-uspokoic-gre-a-wojsko-skrocic-linie-frontow -- AVOIDING TURBULENCE BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “This does not mean that there will be no such correction in the future. Jarosław Kaczyński often thinks for a long time before making important decisions. He is also aware that before the presidential elections, one cannot risk; one must not lead to everything being shaken up. And that is why today the message is so clear: we are going on the course set at the end of 2016. We want to give Poles prosperity and peace. We believe that a different quality of governance will eventually be noticed by social groups that are still 'against it'. The next checkpoint for this strategy is coming soon, in May.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/472173-nowy-stary-rzad-czyli-glebszej-zmiany-kursu-nie-bedzie -- GOVERNMENT FOR THE TIME OF IMPENDING CRISIS - ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON ONET: “Kaczyński, for essentially the first time so publicly, admitted that the time of economic prosperity is slowly ending, and a slowdown is inevitable. The most important task for Mateusz Morawiecki is to guide the country through the impending crisis and the threats associated with it. Hence, the serious structural correction in the new government, which mainly affects economic ministries, is not surprising. Looking at the personnel decisions, it is clear that the Prime Minister has been given a free hand by the PiS leader in filling the economic ministries, and the structural correction affecting many ministries is tailored directly to Morawiecki. Respected politicians within the ruling party, who, to put it mildly, did not get along well with the Prime Minister, are leaving the government.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/nowy-rzad-na-czas-kryzysu-analiza/rnxnyn1 -- MORAWIECKI'S AND GOWIN'S VICTORY, ZIOBRO'S DEFEAT - Jakub Łukaszewski, Agata Kondzińska in GW: “According to sources close to PiS cited by 'Wyborcza', the government changes are primarily a victory for Mateusz Morawiecki and Jarosław Gowin, and a defeat for Zbigniew Ziobro and Beata Szydło's people. - Henryk Kowalczyk and Krzysztof Tchórzewski, who were clearly people of Beata Szydło and Zbigniew Ziobro, who also have an informal arrangement, have left the government. The Minister of Justice particularly wanted Morawiecki not to be Prime Minister, and he himself would gladly have taken the Deputy Prime Minister's seat. Instead, one of his people became the Minister of Forests – says our source.” -- GW, WHILE DISCUSSING THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, SUGGESTS SIKORSKI'S PRESIDENTIAL AMBITIONS: “Another MEP and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski of Civic Platform, who is increasingly being talked about in the context of the upcoming presidential elections, is even more critical. Sikorski (on 'Fakty po Faktach' TVN 24) called the separation of the European division from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs a 'fatal decision.' - This is management of everything by the Prime Minister, which not only strengthens his role towards the MFA, but towards all ministries, because European affairs are also a way to control ministries, as much of what the departments do has a European aspect – Sikorski explained.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25392497,nie-bedzie-ministerstwa-skarbu-resort-sportu-nie-obsadzony.html -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON THE STRENGTHENING OF EMILEWICZ AND SASIN: “He will receive enormous power over the allocation of positions in state-owned companies. While Emilewicz was strengthened in terms of competencies, Sasin was strengthened politically. Another matter is that by restoring the ministry overseeing state-owned companies, PiS admits to a mistake. After all, in the first years of PiS rule, President Jarosław Kaczyński ordered the liquidation of the State Treasury Ministry, considering that such centralized supervision of state property was ineffective. Today, it is evident that the model of assigning state-owned companies to ministers introduced by PiS was ineffective.” -- KWIECIŃSKI FOR A POST ABROAD? - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “The departure of Kwieciński, a long-time associate of Morawiecki, is a surprise – recently, besides his Ministry of Investment, he also headed the Ministry of Finance after Marian Banaś. In his case, speculation concerns a departure for a foreign position. On the one hand, Morawiecki is losing a close associate, and on the other, he will be replaced by another of the Prime Minister's men, Tadeusz Kościński, who recently became deputy head of the ministry.” -- THE GOVERNMENT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SITUATION IN PIS AND CADRE SHORTAGES - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “There will be a new Minister of Family, PiS MP Marlena Maląg, as well as a new minister for climate – Michał Kurtyka, formerly deputy minister of environment. These are all promotions of people from the second tier, indicating PiS's cadre problems. (...) The ruling camp argues that Poles chose continuity in the elections, so it is logical that the government will remain almost the same. In reality, however, the unchanged composition of the government is a compromise between the situation within PiS and cadre shortages, rather than the fulfillment of a promise made to Poles.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/nowy-rzad-pis-analiza-andrzeja-stankiewicza/4z5detk -- TO HELL WITH ALL OF YOU, ON THE OTHER SIDE THERE IS A GREAT NOTHING - JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GW: “On the other side, however, there is a great NOTHING. The scenario of catastrophe is being written in bold. Parties are deliberating. Candidates for candidates are flexing their muscles. They are waging behind-the-scenes battles, a positional war for access to Grzegorz's ear, dust is rising from the fighting, there is lawlessness and disarray. In the cigar smoke, men from the fifth floor rule, who – like Duda – are also very pleased with themselves. They value themselves and like what they do, but they have just lost their fourth game in a row and are confidently marching towards their fifth defeat. They will not give up power in the party. As Kisielewski used to say, 'settling in their asses.' To hell with all of you. We, the citizens, do not want what was. Enough of more wasted years.” -- THE ELECTORAL ORDINANCE FAVORS THE EMERGENCE OF A CIVIC CANDIDATE - GW EDITOR-IN-CHIEF CONTINUES: “All these brave people do not deserve a candidate invented on the fifth floor. A mediocre candidate of mediocre politicians representing averaged party interests, factions, and cliques. These people deserve their candidate. The electoral ordinance favors the emergence of such a civic candidate. The first round is essentially a primary election for the entire opposition. The more candidates, the better, because the smaller the danger of Duda winning from the start. Let everyone have someone to vote for, without bending their conscience.” -- KURSKI ON BODNAR WITHOUT NAMING THE RPO: “I dream of an impartial president of all citizens. Not of PiS, not of KO, not of PSL, not of the Left. A candidate who actively supported democratic movements and called for the rule of law in Poland over the past four years. Who traveled from town to town, talked to people, and was their advocate. He stood up for tenants wronged by building clearers, victims of unjust bailiff executions, helpless people wronged by the system who cannot afford a lawyer. A candidate who supported people indebted in Swiss francs before the European court. Those for whom the current president promised mountains of gold and delivered nothing.” -- THERE IS SUCH A PERSON - GW EDITOR-IN-CHIEF'S CONCLUSION: “A candidate who knows what civil society is, who tried to speak in the Sejm on behalf of all citizens, even though he was not given the floor in committee. So he spoke at night to empty benches. Who knows what a media hunt, oppression, and humiliation are, because he himself has experienced them many times from the current government. A lawyer president who applies the law and understands its spirit. A president with character and backbone, speaking in his own voice, not as a lackey of the leader of one of the parties. There are such people in Poland. There is such a person.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25392639,nie-zaslugujemy-na-prezydenta-wymyslonego-w-dymie-cygar.html -- DONALD TUSK ON PIS'S SOUTH AMERICAN POLITICS IN GW: “Starting with irresponsible financial policy. I'm not even mentioning 500 plus, no one will take that away anymore. But as is known, the PiS government did not stop there. And it is clear that – in the South American style – it has combined what is pleasant, easy, and attractive in left-wing and right-wing politics. It is known that this must end in tragedy. But today my opinion is not dominant. However, I am convinced of my arguments and will defend them and fight for them, including in Poland, because I believe that everything must be done – of course, within the framework of fair play – to win the presidential elections, and in three years, the parliamentary elections.” -- I WILL SUPPORT SUCH A CANDIDATE, EVEN IF IN SOME MATTERS THEY WILL HOLD DIFFERENT VIEWS THAN ME - TUSK CONTINUES: “Yes, this should be a president on the front line. But not in the name of the interests of one party or another, but in the fight to protect the constitution, an independent judiciary, free media. These rudiments of liberal democracy. And I will support such a candidate, even if in some other matters they will hold different views than I do.” -- TUSK ENIGMATICALLY ABOUT HIS CANDIDATE: “Yes, they have already appeared in public debate. There are names there that possess these qualities. And they have a chance.” -- TUSK ON ABANDONING THE NAIVE APPROACH OF TOTAL HUMANITARIANISM: “Ivan Krastev [a well-known Bulgarian political scientist] is right when he says that a wrong approach to migration can be a fatal blow to all of liberal democracy. If we want to protect the essence of European politics, which I include democracy in, we must abandon the naive approach of total humanitarianism.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,25392507,donald-tusk-o-wyborach-prezydenckich-moje-poglady-sa-w-mniejszosci.html -- PSL VOTERS ARE MORE EASILY OFFENDED - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI INTERESTINGLY IN OKO: “As the European elections and the painful defeat of the PO, Nowoczesna, SLD, PSL bloc show – in rural areas and small towns, PSL sympathizers are more 'easily offended.' When the PSL electorate from 2015 had the option of voting for Peasants' candidates on a separate list in the October parliamentary elections, they voted for PiS less often. If an opposition candidate in the second round does not suit them for class, worldview, or party affiliation reasons – they simply will not vote for them. And a repeat of the effect from the European elections would be fatal for the opposition. This favors Kosiniak-Kamysz. It seems that KO supporters in rural areas and small towns will have no problem voting for a candidate from the PSL, while Peasants' voters may not be eager to vote for a Civic Platform candidate. The question remains open whether Kosiniak-Kamysz could mobilize liberal, big-city voters. And so we come to the election campaign.” https://oko.press/bez-zludzen-konserwatysto-liberale-lewicowcu-w-drugiej-turze-ktos-z-nas-wybierze-mniejsze-zlo/ -- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ IN POLITYKA ON HOŁOWNIA AND CIVIC CANDIDATES: “If Volodymyr Zelensky, an actor and lawyer, became president of Ukraine, why shouldn't Szymon Hołownia become president of Poland? Both are united by extensive experience in entertainment programs, knowledge of television as a medium of mass communication, and a lack of scandals and affairs on their records. We understand that Hołownia would be a civic candidate, not put forward by any political party. Other candidates of this type are already circulating on the market: Olga Tokarczuk, Adam Bodnar. It is interesting that so far there is no news that Paweł Kasprzak from the Obywatele RP movement, who lost the Senate elections to Kazimierz Ujazdowski, a Civic Platform candidate, but received significant support (15%), intends to run. I am in favor of putting forward the best jockeys, and in the second round, a jockey/female jockey of jockeys.” https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2019/11/08/holownia-startuje-na-prezydenta/ -- THE TRIBUNAL SHOULD NOT BE A TAVERN - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN POLSKA THE TIMES: “The point is that Krystyna Pawłowicz, perhaps once a competent professor of law, has only distinguished herself in public life in recent years as a hater systematically inciting against opponents of the current government. This is not a good recommendation for a position requiring a minimum of deliberation, and sometimes the ability to rise above divisions. This person also clearly has trouble controlling herself. The Tribunal should not be a tavern. Stanisław Piotrowicz, on the other hand, is a compliant executor of government orders, a implementer of the task of pacifying the judiciary. This is also not a good recommendation. His ambiguous communist-era biography further emphasizes this burden. Against this background, suspicions that Elżbieta Chojna-Duch is getting a place in the Constitutional Tribunal as a reward for testimony before the investigative committee examining VAT pathologies seem like an insignificant digression.” -- THE CAMP AT LEAST DOES NOT HELP THE PRESIDENT - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN PTT: “And as I predicted, aside from the somewhat fantastic hypothesis of a setup regarding future Constitutional Tribunal judges, his camp at least does not help him. But this is, of course, also a question about the president himself. About how he will behave, what formal and informal possibilities of his office he will use. He has many at his disposal – including a televised address. And PiS is already dependent on him today. The fear that the right will not put effort into his campaign is laughable. If Andrzej Duda does not remain in the palace, PiS faces paralysis of its own governance, and perhaps parliamentary elections within a year. The President with the opposition-controlled Senate even have formal possibilities to implement such a scenario. The stakes are therefore everything. The question is whether the main players grasp this.” https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-zglaszanie-takich-kandydatur-jak-pawlowicz-i-piotrowicz-to-psucie-panstwa/ar/c1-14565509 -- I AM NEITHER CLOSING NOR OPENING THE DOOR - BARTOSZ ARŁUKOWICZ ON HIS PRESIDENTIAL AMBITIONS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH KULTURA LIBERALNA: “I really like primaries, but today we no longer have time for that. Donald Tusk's decision has been made. Difficult, responsible, but good that it's made. Therefore, the path is open. - Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska? - She is certainly in the group being considered. Battle-tested. But there are other names too. - You also 'tested in battle' – in the European Parliament elections. - I like election campaigns and I feel comfortable in them, but I also enjoy helping others. I am neither closing nor opening the door.” -- I DON'T FEEL LIKE I MANAGED THAT CAMPAIGN - ARŁUKOWICZ CONTINUES IN KL: “I hope that a moment will come when we will discuss all the 'aspects' of the parliamentary campaign within the National Board of Civic Platform. I will only say that I do not have the feeling that I managed that campaign.” -- EVERY LEADER SHOULD DRAW CONCLUSIONS - ARŁUKOWICZ ON SCHETYNA: “Firstly, there is the statute, and it should be followed. Secondly, I believe that every leader should draw conclusions from the results of their actions. That's all there is to it.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/11/08/arlukowicz-platforma-obywatelska-prezydent-wybory/ -- ONLY THE BELARUSIANS TURNED THE TIGERS BACK - EWA SIEDLECKA ON THE GLARING INCOMPETENCE OF THE VETERINARY INSPECTION: “It was the inspection's duty to react by stopping the transport, notifying the police, and requesting the temporary seizure of the animals from the owner. But instead, it let the transport go. And it only dealt with the condition of the animals when the Belarusians turned them back. And even then, not immediately, because the animals were only taken from the owner on October 30th by a decision of the Mayor of Terespol Municipality. This was in a situation where they were still in the truck, and not all of them had access to water.” -- LET THE MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE DEAL WITH FOOD, NOT ANIMAL WELFARE - SIEDLECKA CONTINUES: “So-called animal welfare should not be the responsibility of the Ministry of Agriculture, which – the State Veterinary Inspection falls under. The ministry is not interested in animals, but in the healthiness of animal products and the interests of breeders. Defending this interest, the minister supported the extermination of wild boars, instead of enforcing – through the Veterinary Inspection – proper sanitary conditions in pig farms to protect against ASF. It is not surprising that he also has no heart for tigers. He does, however, have it for defending the neglect of his veterinary inspectors.” https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2019/11/09/kto-odpowiada-za-tygrysy/ -- I DIDN'T INVENT THE HOT DOGS - KLAUDIA JACHIRA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PIOTR WITWICKI IN RZ: “They used to remind the PO governments that they didn't bring back the wreckage, but they did nothing more for four years. Perhaps apart from proving non-existent explosions and cooking hot dogs. Did I invent the hot dogs? Macierewicz and his commission did. But I'm not laughing about it. If I'm pointing out anything, it's this hypocrisy. Can you imagine how cruel it is to reproach someone for not bringing back the wreckage while not doing it yourself? Few people know that Macierewicz was close to the crash site and when he found out what happened, he went to Warsaw. Then he could have looked for explosions. That's why I have absolutely nothing to explain. I see nothing wrong with what I did. If anyone has crossed the line, it's the PiS state.” -- JACHIRA ON SUGAR... “We drove around Poland with friends and talked. We learned many interesting stories, but also conspiracy theories. Like the one that Polish sugar factories were bought out. - Polish sugar factories have been bought out. - That's not a conspiracy theory at all. I have a separate issue when it comes to sugar. I believe it should disappear because it's unhealthy. Unfortunately, I'm addicted to it. - But I'm talking about people who lost their jobs en masse. - You can't keep unprofitable businesses.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/311089989-Klaudia-Jachira-Cukier-powinien-zniknac-choc-jestem-od-niego-uzalezniona.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Halina Szymańska turns 60, SUNDAY: Bogdan Lis, Andrzej Bratkowski, Krzysztof Wyszkowski, Wacław Martyniuk, Lech Nikolski, Tadeusz Arkit, Piotr Schramm, Andrzej Seremet, Andrzej Orzechowski, MONDAY: Jolanta Banach, Grzegorz Kozak, Mikołaj Budzanowski.

Łukasz Mężyk