state of play: 11/06/2019
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: PM on a fairer tax system, SE: President may block Constitutional Tribunal nominations, Wielowieyska: Total cultural war is PiS's strategy, Pacewicz: Young Left ends the duopoly
-- JACEK SASIN TURNS 50 TODAY.
-- BUDKA AGAINST A SINGLE OPPOSITION CANDIDATE IN THE FIRST ROUND - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/11/06/
-- THE PRIME MINISTER ON A FAIRER TAX SYSTEM: “First and foremost, we should work on a fairer tax system and more effective prosecution of tax fraud. Recent journalistic investigations have shown that annual losses caused by VAT fraud schemes across the EU amount to 50 billion euros. The European Commission estimates these losses to be even three times higher – 150 billion euros – and the Union loses as much again annually on corporate tax avoidance. In total, 300 billion – twice the EU's annual budget. It's time to stop this, which is why I recently sent an invitation to all prime ministers for joint action against tax crime. If we are as effective here as Poland has been in recent years, the EU budget can be significantly more ambitious.”
-- PM ON NEGOTIATING POSITION FOR THE FUTURE EU BUDGET: “These negotiations will be very difficult, the most difficult in history, but certainly actions like today's declaration significantly strengthen our negotiating position. The European Commission sees that its initial proposals are simply unacceptable. Of course, we expect attempts to break our alliance during these talks, but I am optimistic – I believe we will manage to negotiate a budget that will be good for both Poland and the entire EU. It can already be said that we have gained unprecedented influence on how money will be spent within the framework of the common agricultural policy – because the Polish Commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, will be responsible for agriculture. Poland has never had such an important portfolio in the Commission in its history.”
https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1438288,morawiecki-grupa-przyjaciol-spojnosci-budzet-ue-system-podatkowy.html
-- SE SUGGESTS THE PRESIDENT MAY BLOCK PiS NOMINATIONS TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL: “Since Monday, it's been said that these nominations are an inconvenient 'gift' for Andrzej Duda. He imagined the start of his re-election campaign quite differently than filling the judicial bench of the Constitutional Tribunal with the names of Pawłowicz and Piotrowicz. However, it turns out that the president may emerge from this situation unscathed. - For now, much indicates that the president's signature will not be on these nominations. It would be a fatal start to the campaign, mercilessly exploited by competitors later – a collaborator of Andrzej Duda tells 'SE'. - However, we are still hoping that the decisions will be changed and the president will not face such a dilemma – they add.”
https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/to-moze-byc-polityczna-bomba-duda-zablokuje-pawlowicz-i-piotrowicza-aa-C8ig-v3z2-tSsV.html
-- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW ON PiS'S TOTAL CULTURAL WAR STRATEGY: “The candidacies of Krystyna Pawłowicz and Stanisław Piotrowicz, Antoni Macierewicz as senior marshal, and earlier the announcement of an abortion ban are elements of PiS's strategy for the presidential campaign. In this way, Duda will present himself as the sole defender of Polish culture, tradition, and the Church. He will act as a politician who will block the way of leftist radicalism. A religious war will be devastating for all of us. The question remains whether Poles will fall for it and rush to the front en masse, or rather take the position of observers who will not be manipulated.”
-- WHY ABANDON THIS COURSE? - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER ON PiS'S CALCULATIONS: “Perhaps he regretted withdrawing Pawłowicz from the parliamentary elections. The feisty MP, not shying away from aggressive statements, author of the famous words about the EU flag as a rag, was and is an icon of radical nationalists and opponents of the European Union. Perhaps hiding her during the campaign contributed to the good result of Konfederacja, whose success keeps Kaczyński awake at night. An aggressive course – according to the PiS leader – pays off, especially at a time when Konfederacja might grow stronger. Kaczyński wants to take away its support. The choice of Pawłowicz and Piotrowicz might also stem from such a calculation: a sharp attack on the judiciary did not harm PiS, so why should the party back down? Despite the disgusting scandal of organized online attacks on independent judges, Zbigniew Ziobro achieved an impressive electoral result. So why abandon this course?”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25380142,totalna-wojna-kulturowa-to-strategia-pis-na-kampanie-prezydencka.html
-- PiS'S TACTIC OF TOUGH GESTURES, BUT THEY ARE JUST GESTURES - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The calculation was as follows: we send them a few gestures that will improve their morale in a symbolic sphere, but will not hinder our transformation of PiS towards the center in terms of facts. The individuals mentioned above are perfectly suited for such a symbolic operation. Macierewicz, as senior marshal, will likely deliver a fiery speech, referring to the hardest right-wing values – but that will be it. Once the Sejm marshal is elected, Macierewicz, appreciated, will be addressed as senior marshal. And that's it. The situation in the Constitutional Tribunal is similar. Since Julia Przyłębska became the president of the TC, the number of complaints directed to this institution has radically decreased. The new judges to the Tribunal will quite quickly disappear from the public radar. For now, they will allow the radicals to be appeased. And that is the current maneuver. The only question is whether it will be credible for more moderate right-wing voters.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/311059889-Szuldrzynski-Taktyka-twardych-gestow-PiS.html
-- CIVIC COALITION LOSES EXCUSES - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Donald Tusk's decision not to run for president pulls the Civic Coalition out of a kind of infancy. There are no more justifications, no more excuses, no one is standing behind anyone else's back anymore.”
-- KIDAWAS IS THE STRONGEST CARD - WROŃSKI FURTHER: “Currently, the strongest card in the presidential elections is Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. Whether she is selected in the PO primary or not is a secondary matter. She or Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz are capable of defeating Andrzej Duda in the presidential elections. One just needs to believe in this, not quarrel, and not act against oneself. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska is a fan of blues and the band Dżem. The chorus of one of their most famous songs is titled 'Dream of Victoria'. This could be a good campaign slogan.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25381150,bialy-kon-nie-nadjechal.html
-- TUSK GAVE THE OPPOSITION HOPE, FORCED AN APPEARANCE OF UNITY - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The shadow of Tusk's potential candidacy brought hope to the opposition (despite all his weaknesses). The palpable regret from the left-liberal side is justified, as he would have been a relatively undisputed candidate, closing many conflicts and forcing some semblance of unity. This is especially important in the face of presidential elections, which are a particularly attractive prize for politicians – they bring great recognition, open the possibility of moving to another league, and are full of surprises. Therefore, they arouse great passions. Now the opposition camp awaits, as Konrad Kołodziejki aptly wrote, a sharp turn.”
-- NO OTHER CANDIDATE CAN COUNT ON SUCH UNDISPUTED BACKING AS TUSK COULD HAVE - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “Everything indicates that President Andrzej Duda will therefore face Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (most likely) or Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (less likely, but possible) or someone from the left, e.g., Adrian Zandberg (it would be a surprise, but imaginable) in the second round. Each of these candidates is, in my opinion, easier for President Andrzej Duda to defeat than Tusk, and each presents different campaign challenges. None of them can count on the kind of undisputed backing that Tusk could have demanded (whether he would have received it is another matter).”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/471669-to-konczy-kampanie-parlamentarna-otwiera-prezydencka
-- TUSK'S DECISION IS AN ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF KACZYŃSKI'S PRIMACY - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Tusk's decision is an acknowledgment of Kaczyński's primacy in Poland; at least today, at the end of 2019. Perhaps reality will change in 2023 or 2025, but as of today, after four years of PiS rule, Tusk seems to be saying: I can't do it, you deal with it. Donald Tusk's decision closes a certain stage in Polish politics: a stage that ends with Jarosław Kaczyński's spectacular victory in this duel, regardless of the May election results. And Andrzej Duda? Well, he has to do his job. Nothing more, nothing less.”
-- APART FROM PSL, NO ONE HAS DETERMINATION - FIJOŁEK FURTHER: “At the same time, despite the dramatically shrinking time, such a reset and a cold shower may sober up the opposition ranks, end the predictable (also in the context of election results) PiS vs. anti-PiS dispute, and venture into uncharted waters. However, apart from PSL, there is no determination here to seek such an outcome, and Kosiniak-Kamysz himself cannot break through the structures, money, and the entire machine of Schetyna's party.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/471669-to-konczy-kampanie-parlamentarna-otwiera-prezydencka
-- HE LEFT THE PLATFORM ON THE ICE - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ: “But – contrary to Tusk's claims – his resignation from running does not help the Platform at all. The party is not entirely ready to nominate a presidential candidate – and this is Tusk's fault. For all the years of PiS rule, while in Brussels, he had one foot still in Poland and in the Platform, giving the impression that after his term as President of the European Council ended, he would return to the domestic arena and the opposition's presidential candidate would face Duda. And now, at the last minute, he has left the Platform in the lurch.”
-- TUSK WILL STILL BE THE MAIN STRATEGIST FOR THE OPPOSITION - STANKIEWICZ FURTHER: “Another thing is that even if he doesn't run for president, Tusk will still want to be the main strategist for the anti-PiS opposition. So, one way or another, he will return. Therefore, PiS politicians should not rejoice prematurely.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/donald-tusk-nie-bedzie-kandydatem-na-prezydenta-dlaczego-analiza/h673hsv
-- NO ONE WANTED TO GIVE WAY TO TUSK - সংস্কৃতি গ্যান্ডেক in GAZETA: “Today, for the opposition – both PSL and the Platform itself – Tusk in active, day-to-day politics is not needed by anyone. Neither as a presidential candidate, because he would close the path for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska to build her own position. Nor for PSL, because his candidacy would mean competition with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. Nor for Schetyna, because Tusk's return would mean the quick end for the current PO leader. Nor for the 'frondists' in the Platform, because he would close their path to a new beginning in the party. They will all accept Tusk's support, but no one wanted to give way to him – contrary to public declarations.”
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25381174,donald-tusk-od-dawna-nie-wierzyl-juz-w-swoje-zwyciestwo-w-wyborach.html
-- OKO ANALYZES KIDAWAS CHANCES AS THE GREATEST: “The natural candidate is Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. In an OKO.press poll, she has the largest support among Civic Coalition voters after Tusk. Secondly, she has a relatively low negative electorate. Kidawa-Błońska only has more than 40% rejection among the 60+ group (41%), people with vocational education (43%), and income up to PLN 1500 (44%), but among those with incomes of PLN 1500-2500 her repulsion rate drops to 35%, and from PLN 2500 – to 31%. Kidawa is the queen of the largest cities, where only 18% of residents exclude voting for her.”
https://oko.press/tusk-nie-bedzie-kandydowal-bylbym-obciazeniem-sondaz-oko-press-pokazuje-ze-moze-miec-racje/
-- MACIEREWICZ'S SYMBOLIC FAREWELL TO POSITIONS - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ: “Antoni Macierewicz has never fought as brutally with anyone in recent years as he has with the president. So why did Andrzej Duda entrust him with the prestigious mission of senior Sejm marshal? Because it is a symbolic farewell for Macierewicz from his positions. There is no point in dreaming of a return to government or heading the Sejm permanently. Although the Presidential Palace is evasive, justifying its decision, one thing is certain: Duda is not bringing Macierewicz back to life. This is not a political resurrection. On the contrary, it is a symbolic farewell for Macierewicz from his positions, as there is no point in dreaming of a return to government or heading the Sejm permanently.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/macierewicz-bedzie-marszalkiem-seniorem-sejmu/hj90rym
-- YOUNG LEFT ENDS THE DUOPOLY - KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ IN GW: “Politics is the art of convincing people who really don't want to do something that they have to, and for their own good. Can you imagine how difficult it was for Adrian Zandberg, Marcelina Zawisza, or Maciej Konieczny to convince the rank-and-file members of the Razem party, which was founded on opposition to the 'post-communist' and 'neoliberal' SLD, that now they must go hand in hand with the old comrades? Agreeing to this decision required a party-wide referendum. If the leaders of Razem managed this, it means that there is nothing impossible for them. Convincing Polish women and men that they need progressive taxes, legal abortion, and same-sex marriages is a piece of cake in comparison.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25347533,mloda-lewica-dojrzala-i-jest-nie-do-zatrzymania-to-koniec-duopolu.html
-- RZ ON THE RESIGNATION OF THE HEAD OF ABW: “The decision on changes in the ABW leadership was to be made last week at the request of the coordinator of special services, Mariusz Kamiński. Piotr Pogonowski will not retain his position as Head of the Agency in the new government. According to 'Rzeczpospolita' information, there will also be a restructuring of the services – the head of the Military Intelligence Service, Gen. Andrzej Kowalski, is also to lose his position. Stanisław Żaryn, the coordinator minister's spokesman, responds diplomatically: – Prof. Piotr Pogonowski is the Head of the Internal Security Agency. A change in the position of the head of ABW is not currently being considered.”
https://www.rp.pl/Sluzby-mundurowe/191109686-Rzecznik-ministra-koordynatora-sluzb-odpowiada-na-publikacje-Rzeczpospolitej.html
-- GW ON CANDIDATES FOR THE MINISTRY OF DIGITIZATION: “Only three people are being considered for the new minister of digitization. During discussions about the shape of the new government, only former deputy minister of justice, and currently minister without portfolio, Michał Woś, head of the Kościuszko Institute, Izabela Albrycht, and the current minister of digitization, Marek Zagórski, are reportedly being considered.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,156282,25374948,5g-w-ogniu-politycznych-przepychanek.html
-- PIOTR WOŹNY ON THE SOLAR REVOLUTION: “Photovoltaics will be like cable television – he compares at the beginning of our conversation, Piotr Woźny, president of the National Fund for Environmental Protection. – Vast expanses of multi-family buildings have become excellent spaces for antennas, which certainly contributed to the popularization of cable TV in Poland. I am convinced that they will serve with similar success as spaces for solar panels – he explains.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,25370143,prad-z-dachu-jak-telewizja-kablowa-czy-spoldzielnie-mieszkaniowe.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Sasin, Jacek Snopkiewicz.
live
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