state of play: 10/31/2019

POLITICAL SCENE: GW: Will More Neumann Tapes Emerge? Szułdrzyński: Faith in Tusk a Dead End for the Opposition, Wielowieyska: Opposition Voters Already Feel Chaos

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KARCZEWSKI ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/10/31/ -- NEUMANN KNEW ABOUT THE RECORDINGS SINCE 2018 - Pomeranian GW: “Since mid-2018, Sławomir Neumann and his associates were aware of the recordings that were revealed by TVP Info during this election campaign. We sent a question to the Pomeranian Civic Platform office: ‘Before the Neumann tapes were revealed in the 2019 election campaign, did the Pomeranian Civic Platform regional office receive any information about recordings involving the chairman? If so, from where and what was the reaction of the Pomeranian Civic Platform authorities?’ After a week, no answer arrived. The office director, Piotr Skiba, kept postponing the deadlines, finally admitting that the answers were awaiting ‘higher’ approval. -- MORE NEUMANN TAPES SOON? - GW continues: “– What else is on the tapes? I assume we will find out in due time. I know what Chairman Neumann told me when I asked him about the Platform’s candidate for Mayor of Tczew. He replied that everyone would forget about her candidacy a month after the election. He added that ‘she is a zero’,” says Bartosz Paprot. https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,25358715,kulisy-nagran-slawomira-neumanna.html -- FAITH IN TUSK A DEAD END - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The opposition needs a candidate who would not be an anti-Duda, but a Duda+. That is, someone supported by the left wing of the opposition, but towards whom potential voters of the current president would not feel aversion. An anti-Duda candidate would stand a chance if the dislike for PiS was unifying enough to win. However, the results of the European and parliamentary elections show that criticism of PiS alone is not enough. Of course, this may change by spring, but for today, I am willing to risk the thesis that the opposition can win against Duda only by finding a candidate associated with the conservative wing of the opposition, who would be supported by the left (they would have no choice, as it would be difficult for them to vote for Duda), but who has a chance to attract voters from the center. The name is secondary. If the opposition wants to challenge Andrzej Duda, they should first analyze what kind of candidate would have a chance against him, and only then look for a specific person. Faith in the magic of Tusk's name may turn out to be a dead end.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/310309892-Szuldrzynski-Opozycja-potrzebuje--nie-anty-Dudy-ale-Dudy.html -- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE ARGUMENTS FOR AND AGAINST A QUICK NOMINATION OF KIDAWAS - she writes in GW: “The argument for quickly nominating Kidawa is that thanks to her good result in Warsaw, she is currently on a roll – so we should capitalize on this momentum, let the sympathy from the parliamentary elections carry her further. However, opponents of her candidacy worry whether Kidawa will cope in televised debates and direct confrontations, where sharp-witted, quick-thinking fighters are needed. Kidawa-Błońska has more of an image of a gentle and conciliatory person.” -- NOMINATE A CANDIDATE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE - WIELOWIEYSKA continues: “It seems that from the perspective of PO's interests, it would be better to nominate a candidate right now. Primary elections would be a good idea if they could have been held a few months ago. Especially since opposition voters already have a feeling of chaos and a sense that there is a power vacuum in this camp. The issue of leadership in the party is undecided, and there is no decision regarding the presidential elections. The longer this situation lasts, the worse it will be for the Civic Platform.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25364075,wybory-prezydenckie-kto-sie-zmierzy-z-duda.tml -- PAWEŁ MUCHA ON POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DATES: MAY 3, 10, OR 17 - he says in an interview with Jacek Nizinkiewicz in RZ: “It is no secret that meetings between the president and the leader of the parliamentary majority take place, as in any democratic country. We are before the first session of the Sejm and Senate. First, the president will nominate a candidate for prime minister, and then the government will be appointed and will receive a vote of confidence. After the government is appointed in January or February, the Marshal of the Sejm will announce the presidential elections. It is known that the presidential elections will be held on May 3, 10, or 17. The presidential campaign will formally begin with the announcement of the elections. PiS clearly indicates that it would like to support President Andrzej Duda in these elections. Party leader Jarosław Kaczyński has also spoken publicly on this matter.” -- MUCHA ON PAD'S VOTERS OUTSIDE OF PIS: “It is important that PiS, a party that enjoys record support from Poles, wants to support Andrzej Duda, but it should be remembered that the president's electorate is not just PiS voters, but also a broader electorate, including a significant portion of voters from PSL and Paweł Kukiz's movement, PO, Konfederacja, and Lewica.” -- NO DECISION ON PAD'S PARTICIPATION IN THE MARCH: “There is no decision yet. Last year it was a state march. Discussions are currently underway regarding its organization. The president will certainly celebrate November 11th publicly as every year. The president would like this date to unite Poles, not divide them. We should be proud that we are Poles, and National Independence Day is the right date to enjoy this pride.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/310309889-Mucha-Nie-ma-takiego-ugrupowania-jak-opozycja.html -- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI ON THE ABSENCE OF ELISABETH WARREN IN POLAND: “The struggle for power has become so fierce, politicians are so focused on each other that nothing else matters. In Poland today, not only is there no Elizabeth Warren, who as a leading candidate for the White House is fighting for democratic control over internet giants. There is also no young Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, who during a congressional hearing grilled Mark Zuckerberg to a crisp for spreading paid lies via Facebook. Poland is ruled by PiS's 'patopolitics,' which permanently pathologizes Polish culture and minds. PiS will do nothing about it because they only think about power. But the opposition cannot stand idly by, because – to put it most cynically – it will one day have to rule over minds that are being pathologized today.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25364111,polska-pis-rzadzi-patopolityka.html -- RZ ON THE FACT THAT NONE OF THE ARRESTED FINANCE MINISTRY EMPLOYEES WERE DISCIPLINARILY DISMISSED… “None of the Ministry of Finance employees who were arrested for VAT fraud were dismissed from the ministry for disciplinary reasons. All officials who faced criminal charges in the high-profile scandal – described in our pages – were dismissed from their jobs with severance pay, 'Rzeczpospolita' has established. Two of them were arrested while they were on notice – meaning they were formally still employees of the ministry.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/310309884-Pracownicy-MF-zatrzymani-za-wyludzenia-VAT-otrzymali-odprawy.html -- BANAŚ TESTS PIS - ROMAN IMIELSKI IN GW. -- PIS DECISIVELY DOMINATES THE RIGHT WING - OKO ANALYSIS: “The graph shows what percentage of people with, for example, right-wing views (dark blue color) would vote for PiS today – 74%. The remaining 'right-wingers' choose KO and PSL (6% each) and Konfederacja – 12%.” -- HALF OF THE LEFT-WINGERS FOR LEWICA, ONE THIRD FOR KO: “In turn, almost half of the depicted darker red left-wingers (49%) declared voting for Lewica, but one third (32%) chose Civic Coalition. This is how this graph should be interpreted. The profiles of Civic Coalition and PSL with Kukiz'15 are similar at first glance, only the KO bars are generally higher, because in the OKO.press poll conducted 10 days after the elections, 23% intended to vote for KO, and only 9% for PSL. In both profiles, the highest percentages are 'centrists' (gray color). However, there is an important difference: Besides centrists, Civic Coalition has larger shares in groups with left-wing and center-left views, while PSL – conversely – in groups with center-right and right-wing views. So, the Presidium of the Sejm is right in placing KO to the left of PSL. In many previous OKO.press analyses, we showed that the views of liberal and left-wing voters are almost the same, and PSL is slightly closer to the right.” -- TWICE AS MANY PEOPLE WITH RIGHT-WING VIEWS: “There are more than twice as many people with right-wing views as with left-wing views, and more than three times as many as centrist views. This is the secret to PiS's dominance, which has successfully seduced right-wing voters and/or encouraged its supporters to think of themselves that way. Kaczyński has dominated this group (gaining support from 74% of them), and moreover, it is a huge group. If we consider the sizes of the opinion groups, the support graph for parties changes and only now explains the phenomenon of PiS's dominance.” https://oko.press/klotnia-o-centrum-oko-press-kosiniak-kamysz-w-prawo-a-schetyna-w-lewo/ -- 65% FOR SEXUAL EDUCATION - IPSOS FOR OKO: “As many as 65% of respondents believe that sex education classes should be conducted in public schools, where issues of sex, gender, sexual orientation, or contraception are discussed openly. The largest group of respondents – 43% – believe that experts invited by the school would be best suited to lead such classes.” https://oko.press/w-szkole-trzeba-mowic-otwarcie-o-seksie-antykoncepcji-i-orientacjach-tak-uwaza-65-proc-polakow/ -- RZ ON THE SUGAR TAX: “The sugar tax is becoming increasingly common worldwide, which is why Polish producers are analyzing the issue. According to calculations by the Polish Sugar Producers Association, obtained by 'Rz,' if sweet drinks, beer, and confectionery were subject to the tax, the budget could gain from 1 to 2.2 billion PLN annually. The effect of growing sugar consumption is an obesity epidemic – half of Poles are already overweight. That is why Jarosław Pinkas, the Chief Sanitary Inspector, has called for the taxation of sugar.” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1415369-Miliardy-w-cukrze.html -- JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA ON SUCCESSION: “The strength of 'Succession' comes from how the series examines contemporary billionaires as a new ruling class. We look at it from the closest possible distance, we are in the very heart of the Roy empire, in the guts of the machine, where capital turns into power, and power into capital. (...) Today, as the economy increasingly drifts away from the control of politics, as capitalism itself becomes more abstract, this 'place of power' often seems empty. It is no wonder that we want to populate it with billionaires, those who seem to benefit most from everything happening around us. However, 'Succession' reminds us not to confuse the system with its face, the facade with the structure, the monarch with the monarchy – the Roys are merely a symptom of a much more systemic problem.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kultura/film/majmurek-sukcesja-serial-recenzja/ -- ŚWIETLIK RESIGNS FROM LEADING TRÓJKA: “According to information from the Wirtualnemedia.pl portal, Świetlik justified his resignation with private matters and new professional plans. We have not yet obtained his comment on this matter.” https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/trojka-polskie-radio-wiktor-swietlik-rezygnuje-z-funkcji-szefa -- 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF JAN WEJCHERT'S DEATH. -- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Jaźwiński, Kamila Terpiał, Tadeusz Aziewicz, Paweł Krzykowski, Marcin Tyrna, Wojciech Arkuszewski, FRIDAY: Konrad Piasecki, Tomasz Tretter, Cezary Szymanek, Grzegorz Tobiszowski, Andrzej Romanek.

Łukasz Mężyk